End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.


We have the record for the coldest wind chill recorded in Ontario. -58C.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.

If you think 10C is cold then you are going to have a bad time.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

How disappointing would it be if 96L became a TD but didn't get named, lol.
Do not even say that I will be really disappoint.this is the only list that haven`t reach the O letter of the six Atlantic lists.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.

Well you're a wuss, so...
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Quoting wxchaser97:

They have lower pressures and before they become a TD or TS they have some spin.
Just so everyone knows, I believe a 3+ mb drop in 24 hours is considered to be one of the signs of a developing system. So if anyone sees a tropical wave like that...
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Quoting yqt1001:


Hey take all the snow you want. :P the last time the south got decent snow it was a burning 10C here! I just dont want snow in early october
...I consider 10C to be cold.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

How disappointing would it be if 96L became a TD but didn't get named, lol.

I would be mad/disappointed, however I believe we get Oscar out of 96L.
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Edit: My bad. Just a mistake. Too late for me, lol.
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Quoting yqt1001:
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.

Snow means business for me though and I'm just saying it is getting colder.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.


Hey take all the snow you want. :P the last time the south got decent snow it was a burning 10C here! I just dont want snow in early october
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Quoting wxchaser97:

They have lower pressures and before they become a TD or TS they have some spin.


That's when 96L suddenly dies and we don't anymore storms for the rest of the season so the curse lives on.

How disappointing would it be if 96L became a TD but didn't get named, lol.
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Quoting Gorty:


Does a tropical wave have some spin?

They have lower pressures and before they become a TD or TS they have some spin.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

After two attempts, it looks like the third time is the charm. 96L will likely become TS Oscar and break this stupid naming list curse.

That's when 96L suddenly dies and we don't anymore storms for the rest of the season so the curse lives on.
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305. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.


I see it every year :p

But, I do get some winters where I get no snow but that doesnt happen very often.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

After two attempts, it looks like the third time is the charm. 96L will likely become TS Oscar and break this stupid naming list curse.


I agree. 96L will likely become Oscar in the coming days.
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Quoting yqt1001:
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.
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The thunder is here in Lake Worth, Fl.
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301. barbamz
12:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, it's hard getting a laugh out of this crowd. Great video. Still chuckling a little.


Some Germans aren't amused at all either, Gro. They think, this comedy video does great injustice to them - this it at least what german blogs are saying in the majority. They cannot laugh; poor people!
On the other hand: reality is nearly as much as a comedy like the video. Look at those news from poor, beloved Greece (and I appreciate this country very much; have been there at least 12 times).

Are those things weather related? Maybe not immediately. But impacts on climate and environment are always related in some way to the economic situation (or the other way round)... And we are going to see hard times, I believe.
Nevertheless let's celebrate live as long as we can and don't lose the ability for laughing (you won't anyways :-)).
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300. KoritheMan
12:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Dosen't one have to be "outside" to enjoy da weather?

: )


I've been outside for the last hour. I would certainly say I enjoyed the cold air.
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299. CosmicEvents
12:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


You have to ask Carnac the Magnificent.
Carnac's on tomorrow night. For tonight Bombastic Bushkin measures 2 1/2".
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298. MAweatherboy1
12:16 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.

We're not all Canadian though :)

Henry M has put out his first snow map of the year!!!!

Link
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297. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:15 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
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296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:14 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you go to washingtonpost.com it shows a high of only 49 degrees next monday.


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295. Skyepony (Mod)
12:14 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
OSCAT isn't working right. Stopped short of central Atlantic this morning.
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294. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Civicane49:

After two attempts, it looks like the third time is the charm. 96L will likely become TS Oscar and break this stupid naming list curse.
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293. yqt1001
12:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
292. Gorty
12:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Usually they have at least some indication of lower pressure or spin and there is no tropical wave located there. I think development won't occur with this.


Does a tropical wave have some spin?
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291. wxchaser97
12:10 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Gorty:


Aren't a lot of areas disturbed weather like that?

Usually they have at least some indication of lower pressure or spin and there is no tropical wave located there. I think development won't occur with this.
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290. Civicane49
12:10 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
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289. Gorty
12:07 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Right now I don't think so as there is nothing at the surface that indicates something would develop. However we need to begin to watch that area for develop as it is that time of year.


Aren't a lot of areas disturbed weather like that?
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288. MAweatherboy1
12:07 AM GMT on October 02, 2012


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287. Grothar
12:07 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
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286. wxchaser97
12:04 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Gorty:
Will the NHC color the western Carrib if it persists?

Right now I don't think so as there is nothing at the surface that indicates something would develop. However we need to begin to watch that area for develop as it is that time of year.
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285. Slamguitar
12:04 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Really, I don't know if we would get snow this early but maybe it is possible.


My forecast went up from 0.01in to 0.02in in just one day! DOOM!! (of the snowy variety)
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284. Grothar
12:03 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
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283. allancalderini
12:03 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
96L is a developing depression and I think we will see development out of it.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Might be renumber tomorrow afternoon or night.
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282. wxchaser97
12:02 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting winter123:

The northern states from Idaho to Michigan will be cold enough for some snow Friday-Sunday. It seems like we skipped right over Fall to Winter. Undoubtedly the snow falling on the leaves will cause issues.


Really, I don't know if we would get snow this early but maybe it is possible.
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281. Gorty
12:02 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Will the NHC color the western Carrib if it persists?
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280. Civicane49
12:01 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Invest 96L:

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279. wxchaser97
12:00 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
96L is a developing depression and I think we will see development out of it.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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278. Articuno
12:00 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Dosen't one have to be "outside" to enjoy da weather?

: )

true dat pat
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277. Grothar
11:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting barbamz:


Thanks a lot. Sometimes it's difficult for Europeans to entertain people in the US; situation and humours might be different at time. I just came back from a late evening date and have to go to bed.
Have a good evening everyone and good luck with bad weather in the East US. In Germany we are enjoying right now so called "Altweibersommer" = Summer of old women = sort of Indian summer. Name derived from the gossamers which appear especially in autumn and which resemble to the fine white hair of elderly women = the norns, as people in former times thought. So nothing dramatic can be reported from the mid of Europe, just very fine weather. Greetings to all of you!


Yeah, it's hard getting a laugh out of this crowd. Great video. Still chuckling a little.
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276. allancalderini
11:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
code red people Oscar might come finally.
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275. Slamguitar
11:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting winter123:

The northern states from Idaho to Michigan will be cold enough for some snow Friday-Sunday. It seems like we skipped right over Fall to Winter. Undoubtedly the snow falling on the leaves will cause issues.



I remember many of my trees lost large branches in the Fall of '09 after a big October snowstorm. All that extra weight a tree can hold in snow with leaves... It was lake-enhanced which made it worse for MI.
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274. Patrap
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Dosen't one have to be "outside" to enjoy da weather?

: )
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273. GeoffreyWPB
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
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272. Articuno
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Nadine to affect the Azores huh.. thought it was "no threat to land"
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271. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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270. Grothar
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how heavy is it


You have to ask Carnac the Magnificent.
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269. Slamguitar
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.I'm surly pumped on the cool air coming.When I saw 49 as a high I had to squint really hard at the screen.I haven't seen 40 degrees since April last year.


That rivals my upcoming forecasted highs!

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268. washingtonian115
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting Articuno:

You sure that's not a low? I am very close to you and my forecast calls for 63 as a high.
If you go to washingtonpost.com it shows a high of only 49 degrees next monday.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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