Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Post 751, now we should begin to get a little better imagery out in parts of the Atlantic. I hope a permanent solution is found soon.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
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GOES-13/14 Update....

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 1, 2012 1545 UTC


Date/Time of Expected End: October 1, 2012 1609 UTC (maneuver);
Drift will
continue eastward at 0.90 degrees per day


Length of Outage: See table in detail.


Details/Specifics of Change: In order to support users with better data
during the ongoing GOES-13 anomaly recovery, a GOES-14 East Drift Start
Maneuver will be performed today, Monday, October 1, 2012, at 1545 UTC.
GOES-14 is currently positioned at 105 degrees west, and upon the
maneuver, the eastward longitudinal drift will be initiated.
GOES-14 will
drift 0.90 degrees per day to the East towards the location of
GOES-13 at
75 degrees West.


Final location of GOES-14 is dependent upon the ongoing recovery of
GOES-13. During this transition, direct readout users can continue to
receive GOES-14 data via the GOES-13 GVAR broadcast stream from
75 degrees
West, and will not have to repoint their antennas to GOES-14. GOES-13
imager and sounder remain out of service at this time.


Location of frame boundaries of the satellite scanning sectors will be
adjusted every Wednesday at the 1900 UTC housekeeping period.
This will
cause a one time shift in the image and sounding frames each Wednesday.
GINI and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure optimal
coverage of
the CONUS for users of AWIPS and of the SATEPSDIST servers within ESPC.
Image Navigation and Registration (INR) is expected to remain within
specification during this drift period. For NWS operations, during this
time period, RSO (Rapid Scan Operations) will be available. No SRSO
(Super
Rapid Scan Operations) will be available.


On October 1, 2012 the following schedule will be employed to support
maneuver operations:


GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver Schedule begins at 1545 UTC on
October 1,
2012.


>From 1545 UTC through 1606 UTC -- GOES-14 No Scan Operations


There will be no GOES-15 (GOES-West) Full Disk (30 minute) Imaging.


There will be no recovery schedule for this maneuver.


1609 UTC -- GOES-14 Routine Scan Operations Resume.


Please note: Since post-maneuver attitude performance is expected to be
nominal, a special recovery schedule is not required, and the
6-hour INR
(Image Navigation Registration) recovery period will be supported by
Routine schedule.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
There is already area being monitored for a watch( even though there most likely won't be a watch) in the south but the real activity will get going later today.


Mesoscale discussion #2013
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
744. VR46L
Quoting beell:


You need to include one other person in that timely advice. Sound good? Thanks!

Short term memory loss?

Me thought that was the Romney Campaign Slogan ?


Apparently its okay to discuss politics now... unreal
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 615 AM CDT

* AT 519 AM CDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 MILES WEST OF NEW BROCKTON...OR NEAR
DAMASCUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WOODLAND GROVE CHURCH...CAMP HUMMING HILLS...TABERNACLE...MIXONS
CROSSROADS...ARCUS...LOWRY MILL...EANON...VICTORIA...NEW HOPE...
JAVA...CHESTNUT GROVE...FRISCO...CLOWERS CROSSROADS AND ROETON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
plenty of heavy thunderstorms in the western carib.
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AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
..........GFS at 192 hours, something in the pacific once again by mexico
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
GFS at 48 hours,some heavy rain coming south florida....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
736. beell
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Doug. Please take the goofy politics and off-topic stuff to another blog. Or, here's an idea: make your own blog. Sound good?

Thanks!


You need to include one other person in that timely advice. Sound good? Thanks!

Short term memory loss?

Me thought that was the Romney Campaign Slogan ?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
fInally some showers around..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
96L is up to 30%, slowly getting there.


1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
732. VR46L
Hmmm Possible clouds of interest in the Caribbean

Link
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96L is up to Code Orange, 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's nothing about Monday's to be exited about.

Sigh...

At least I have Friday off again.

That's unfair, I wish I had Friday off. It is the water new year so but that doesn't mean much. Monday is one day closer to the weekend.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The beginning of another new week. Everyone have a great Monday!

There's nothing about Monday's to be exited about.

Sigh...

At least I have Friday off again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The beginning of another new week. Everyone have a great Monday!

Have a great Monday too, hopefully this great weather can last all week.
Also happy water new year!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning GFS and ECMWF develop 96L into a TD/Weak Tropical Storm.



Development of 96L is getting a little more likely and the NHC said that it has a favorable environment for gradual development ahead. If 96L becomes Oscar it will probably go out to sea and probably won't turn into a major system.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
The beginning of another new week. Everyone have a great Monday!
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Good morning. GFS and ECMWF develop 96L into a TD/Weak Tropical Storm.



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I wrote a special blog on Nadine and the 4 longest lived Atlantic hurricanes ahead of her, check it out!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
blog is dead. see yall when Nadine dies in 350 years.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
99N?
That assures an interesting cyclone.
I can't recall one forming that far North....

that is because it does not exist. only 90N which is the north pole
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi, it's evening here.
Did you see Nadine weakening rapidly? Surely she can do whatever she wants.


Nadine has been amazing to watch, hurricane, not hurricane, hurricane, not hurricane... She's had a great run and the best part has been being able to watch her and know she's not hurting people, though the Azores have sure had their fair share and more of her.
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Good morning everyone, I think it is safe to say Nadine is weakening for good.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning or evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 60 degrees in my part of Louisiana. I didn't want to come out from under the covers this morning, could have easily slept a couple more hours in this cooler temp.

Hi, it's evening here.
Did you see Nadine weakening rapidly? Surely she can do whatever she wants.
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Good morning or evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 60 degrees in my part of Louisiana. I didn't want to come out from under the covers this morning, could have easily slept a couple more hours in this cooler temp.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
714. VR46L
Nadine ...Still alive
Loop is embedded in the image click to view
Link
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Hurricane Season Still in Effect
On a more serious note, the beginning of astronomical fall means that
for Florida the hurricane season is still very much alive. In fact, a
somewhat unknown fact is that the historical median date for South
Florida hurricane strikes is September 21. This means that half of the
hurricanes which have directly struck South Florida occurred before that
date and half occurred after.
Also, the month of most direct hurricane strikes for South Florida is
October. A total of 19 hurricanes have hit South Florida since the late
1800s, compared to 15 in September and 11 in August.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
Good Morning folks!..rain chances going up this week....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 70739
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

NADINE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND A RATHER THIN BAND OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS ONLY WRAPS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT
LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 65 KT...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE
GENEROUS. NADINE HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS...WHERE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22C ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS.
THESE COOL WATERS ARE AT LEAST IN PART CAUSED BY NADINE ITSELF THAT
WAS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ABOUT A DAY
AGO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 4...WHEN IT IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS BELOW 20C AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF
ABOUT 40 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...STEERED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NADINE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT
IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 36.3N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 35.6N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 35.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 34.9N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 35.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 38.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 46.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/0600Z 50.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 39.3W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
709. VR46L
96L when it came off Africa looked really impressive not so much now

Link
Hopefully this works click on Image and see the clip
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708. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
15:00 PM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 16.9N 114.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.6N 115.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (T1219)
15:00 PM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Maliksi (998 hPa) located at 17.8N 146.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.6N 142.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.8N 140.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 27.4N 140.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters

Additional Information
=====================

From The Tiyan NWS in Guam... A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan Islands

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 1 2012
===================================

Vortex over west central Bay of Bengal centered within half a degree of latitude 14.5N 83.0E. Associated broken low/medium cloud with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 16.5N west of 87.0E and off Andra Pradesh coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #89
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
15:00 PM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Around Kirils

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 44.0N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 48.2N 168.9E - Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Kurils
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707. 7544
cuba blob getting bigger hmmmmm
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Nadine weakening rapidly...
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2012 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 36:32:00 N Lon : 39:21:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.0 3.0

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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Invest 96L is up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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