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A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Nadine looks pretty strong.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken
nasty squalls!
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Samuel Clemens rode in on its 1835 visit and departed with it on its 1920 visit. ... What a ride!


Old Sam passed in 1910.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken
WOW the weather is picking up bad at that beach in Okinawa.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well Nadine has went from a TD, to a TS, then a cat1 hurricane, back down to a TS, then a subtropical storm, next an extra-tropical storm, back to a TS, and now she is a hurricane again. Nadine has done a lot of crazy things in her life and she still has around a week left.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken


Deteriorating!
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Quoting JLPR2:
Huge mess in the CATL.

What the heck IS that?
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Quoting CaribBoy:


The area had a storm a few days ago!!!!
yep u right first sanba now jelawat. just crazy!
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228. Skyepony (Mod)
Imagery From: AMSU Microwave Instrument
89 GHz Radiance
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227. Skyepony (Mod)
Some sort of anomaly as the wave comes into view. Click pic for loop.. Imagery From: DMSP SSM/I Microwave Instrument 85 GHz Radiance

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'll take a shot on the mystery that Dr. Masters illustrates. Might it have something to do with the angle of the sun. The orientation of what could be a shadow seems to align with the position of the sun and the cyclone relative to the equator, and the time of day(9AM local time I think) also aligns with the position of the sun being ESE casting a shadow to the WNW. Just a wild guess...but I like a good mystery, and when the Dr. is at a loss for an explanation, I'm doubly intrigued.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken


The area had a storm a few days ago!!!!
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At last I managed it to post some pics of our very nice days in the Tuscany/Italy (despite of all "Euro crisis"). Unfortunately for the blog (but fortunately for our vacations) without any incidence of an impending "medicane" (hurricane in the Mediterranean Sea) in the Gulf of Genova. Mostly just splendid weather. (Though there is right now a little swirl at the southern coast of Spain again).
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223. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT
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Our Wunderground weather historian, Christopher Burt, just put up an interesting blog.

The Most Intense Tropical Storms on Earth Yet Recorded
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Recipe written for TX, pure moisture feed directly into the state with high octane gulf moisture feeding directly into it. Radars may be going off the scale starting tomm and into Sunday

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220. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM caught wave around 46W.
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This is a pretty interesting loop to watch as we have three weak circulations interacting with each other: Norman, ex Miriam, and a tiny little one I see due north of ex Miriam:

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Quoting RitaEvac:
First significant rains since September 1st here at the house. Picked up 0.43" late this morning. Yes that is significant that's how pathetic it's been.

The real event looks to be playing out over TX. Hope it can be all it can be. Let the rains come with vengeance.


Every raindrop helps out, hopefully you continue to get rain.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
New Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa is introduced at 18z surface analysis.


I continue to say that we will see 1-2 more storms this year.
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New Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa is introduced at 18z surface analysis.

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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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First significant rains since September 1st here at the house. Picked up 0.43" late this morning. Yes that is significant that's how pathetic it's been.

The real event looks to be playing out over TX. Hope it can be all it can be. Let the rains come with vengeance.



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Quoting Slamguitar:


In general. Like Irene last year, it was funny Gov. Christie practically yelling at the folks on the beach.
LOL! I remember dat. and the same thing happenend with us in Isaac as Mayor Landrieu was telling people to leave!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:


In general. Like Irene last year, it was funny Gov. Christie practically yelling at the folks on the beach.
I remember this line "get the hell off the beach,your tan time is over"
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Yeah i see dat. LOL i know our situation was different though


In general. Like Irene last year, it was funny Gov. Christie practically yelling at the folks on the beach.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken
see a little of beach erosion already
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We're starting to see a bit of a pattern shape up I think... we're getting continual troughs and cold shots for much of the country with warm weather for the west and Alaska... time will tell if it sticks around for winter.



The precip maps have been all over the place, but one thing that's been rather consistent is way above average precip in Alaska:

Ohhh I hope your right.Just imagine if we had that wet pattern in place with cold air.Woooohooo!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nice turquoise water.
Clear too! and clean!
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Quoting Slamguitar:


And no one is standing on the beach!


(Unlike certain folks...)
Yeah i see dat. LOL i know our situation was different though
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken
Nice turquoise water.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken


And no one is standing on the beach!


(Unlike certain folks...)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kerama, a small island in the northwest portion of Jelawat's eyewall, reported maximum sustained winds of 62 mph with gusts to 92 mph an hour ago. I bet they are well over 100 mph now.


Probably as Jelawat is still a strong typhoon. The eye has shrunk and filled in with clouds though.
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Kerama, a small island in the northwest portion of Jelawat's eyewall, reported maximum sustained winds of 62 mph with gusts to 92 mph an hour ago. I bet they are well over 100 mph now.

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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL!!!!!!!!

Here is a look at Okinawa Japan. refreshes every minute. Daylight has finally broken
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nice! LOL
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Quoting bigwes6844:
cant wait to see how huge the waves gonna get from jelawat


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cant wait to see how huge the waves gonna get from jelawat
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Quoting Grothar:


Halley's Comet in 1910 is still my favorite.


Samuel Clemens rode in on its 1835 visit and departed with it on its 1910 visit. ... What a ride!

Edit - I corrected the date of Sam's departing ride on Halley's Comet. I knew the correct date of these events, but someone placed the "2" too close to the "1" on my keyboard. "Proof reading" is more than just a spectator sport. Should it become necessary, I have other excuses to offer as well.
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Statement as of 3:32 PM CDT on September 28, 2012

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* the following counties in south central Texas... Atascosa...
Bastrop... Bexar... Caldwell... Comal... DeWitt... Fayette...
Gonzales... Guadalupe... Hays... Karnes... Lavaca... Lee... Travis...
Williamson and Wilson.

* Through Saturday evening

* widespread heavy rains will occur tonight through late
Saturday. Rainfall totals averaging 2 to 4 inches... with
isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches possible.


* Rapid runoff from these heavy rains could result in the flash
flooding of creeks and streams... low water crossings... and
urban areas... as well a threat to life and property. Larger
creeks and streams may eventually be impacted... resulting in
roadways becoming impassable for several hours.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Huge mess in the CATL.



Glad I'm not the only one that saw it :))
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live webcam showing waves picking up
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No talks about the AOI east of the Lesser Antilles near 45-50W south of 15N??????
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GOM Radar



Link
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Re: A Jelawat mystery

Maybe a subsiding part of a tropopause fold injecting very dry air into the top of Jelewat along that line? Usually associated with a jet stream, though.
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It's been a little while since I did one but I just finished a quick blog.

Link
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189. JLPR2
Huge mess in the CATL.

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Nadine does have an eyewall, something that I noticed building up early this morning. I say Nadine could do a little more strengthening before shear starts to take over.


Also on the GFS snow has been showing up on some runs in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and NE. However this is like 10 days out and unreliable but we are headed toward that time period.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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