Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
TO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

Seems like years ago...

Another thing that is interesting, in the days that NASA's "global hawk" has been flying to Nadine; 2 explosive intensification happened in the Western Pacific. Might've been nicer to have the aircraft moved to Luzon for Sanba and Jelawat rather than Nadine....
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

...LONG-LIVED NADINE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 31.4W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
By the time Nadine dies they'll have to dig up our fossilized remains.
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I WOULD LOVE THE DISTURBANCE TO THE ENE OF THE LEEWARDS TO DIVE ON US AND BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. SEPTEMBER IS THE DRIEST ON RECORD SO FAR.
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...LONG-LIVED NADINE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 26
Location: 29.5N 31.4W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.5N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 29.1N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 33.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

...MIRIAM WEAKENING FAST OVER COLD WATER...
8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 26
Location: 21.5N 115.7W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.8N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 22.9N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
245 wxchaser97: The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.

I disagree. Thus far, making an educated guess about Nadine has been no more meaningful than making an uneducated guess.
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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO A BAND
CURVING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK...SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURROUND
NADINE...THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TO LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LGEM MODEL AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 220/5. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND FSSE.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2338 ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.5N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 29.1N 34.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 33.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 16821
Quoting beell:
<-
hello
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.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's be nice if Wunderground would fix the log in problem..

It would be nice if I could understand the grammar in the beginning;)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not much longer now winter fast approaches

I can't wait until winter comes with the cold and snow.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
It'd be nice if Wunderground would fix the log in problem..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35751
277. beell
<-
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Quoting Patrap:
..the futcha is coming on, it's coming on..


There are now 85 days left until the Winter Solstice.
not much longer now winter fast approaches
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..the futcha is coming on, it's coming on..


There are now 85 days left until the Winter Solstice.
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274. Skyepony (Mod)
NADINE
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Quoting winter123:
A view of just how close Nadine has been to Europe for several days.

Loop - WOW that is a hostile environment!



I had a Nadine close to me once,,but alas,

...sigh.
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Gordy, I see swirls within swirls..

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is a little off topic, but I thought it was interesting how it appears as if the rainforests of Africa and South America appear to "breathe" out moisture into the atmosphere every day.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Be sure not to log out of Wunderground because the log in screen is not working. Having to use my phone to post.

I never log out of WU so I should be good, thanks for letting us know.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine is worse than Karen could ever be, this thing just wont die.

This thing will continue to live on for an unknown amount of time, it is too unpredictable.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Be sure not to log out of Wunderground because the log in screen is not working. Having to use my phone to post.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35751
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Nadine is worse than Karen could ever be, this thing just wont die.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 26103
A view of just how close Nadine has been to Europe for several days.

Loop - WOW that is a hostile environment!

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I thought you might enjoy this. It is a 1929 image of a hurricane hitting Andros Island. If they don't get the Satellite fixed. We may have to all draw our own hurricane images.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 31962
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Gonna do an over/under for Nadine here...

The over/under is 96.5 advisories


Aaaand place your bets!


Gambling is not allowed. 10 to 1 says you get in trouble.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 31962
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Gonna do an over/under for Nadine here...

The over/under is 96.5 advisories


Aaaand place your bets!
So over/under 9.5 more days?
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 449
Nadine really reminds me of a polar low. These things don't die off easily.

Nadine, yesterday


An example of a polar low
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 31962
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 31962
259. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
9:00 AM JST September 27 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (920 hPa) located at 19.6N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
350 NM from the center in northern quadrant
240 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.3N 123.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Near Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 24.2N 125.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Near Miyako-jima
72 HRS: 26.5N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinawa Island Waters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna do an over/under for Nadine here...

The over/under is 96.5 advisories


Aaaand place your bets!
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Seems we lost the outside LINK prompt warning wunderyakuza?

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Quoting weatherbro:
Anybody ever heard of the Florida Volcano(Wakulla Volcano)???

Link





Is it kinda like a Pat O'Brian's Hurricane?
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Quoting Josihua2:
guess nadine is just enjoying life and longliveity over the ocean making round-a-bouts to maybe strike islands again.... its basically shouting *weeeee look at me i`m free!*

For now she is free, eventually a front will pick her up, a ridge will push her away, or she will just die out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Anybody ever heard of the Florida Volcano(Wakulla Volcano)???

Link
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Quoting wxchaser97:

The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.
guess nadine is just enjoying life and longliveity over the ocean making round-a-bouts to maybe strike islands again.... its basically shouting *weeeee look at me i`m free!*
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Quoting Thing342:
AL, 14, 2012092700, , BEST, 0, 297N, 311W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 100, 100, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

Now we will wait to see if it stays at 50mph at the 11pm advisory.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Quoting KoritheMan:


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P
LOL I do but I doubt storms will move west towards CA Maybe Nicaragua but I think storms will be put toward the northwest or northeast towards Cuba and Yucatan maybe even Florida.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4807
AL, 14, 2012092700, , BEST, 0, 297N, 311W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 100, 100, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 449
I believe Nadine is a Karen spiral band remnant .
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
Great. No more El Nino to pop the wishcaster's bubble.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Agree to disagree, although in the end, it matters not to me. And yeah, Nadine is definitely still a wait and see.

The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah, I think Jelawat is probably done strengthening. Nadine however I have no clue as to what she will do.

Agree to disagree, although in the end, it matters not to me. And yeah, Nadine is definitely still a wait and see.
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Quoting Thing342:
Nadine will probably still be around by then.

It will be December 22nd and Nadine will still be around, that's how long she will be around.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
Quoting KoritheMan:


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P

I say one Caribbean storm and one higher latitude storm, hi Kori.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 134 Comments: 8005
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Quoting allancalderini:
October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.
Nadine will probably still be around by then.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 449
Quoting allancalderini:
October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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