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Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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726. AussieStorm
3:51 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
I have just finished my forecast blog on the 2012/13 Australian Bush Fire season. Feel free to have a read and leave a comment if you'd like.

Cheers
AussieStorm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
725. Skyepony (Mod)
1:33 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Sun setting on Sanba. Click pic for loop. Might see 8 before sunrise.
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723. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
722. HurricaneDean07
1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
By next week we will be watching 92L or Oscar(East coast low), and we will have another Tropical wave form, Patty.

That's 4 storms halfway through September. And that would put us only 3 storms away from 19 named storms which is the Hyper-active season- Threshold, and we would be 5 named storms from Exhausting the naming list.
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721. calkevin77
1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


I Like what you posted here. Decent steady but not too intense rains spread over a lot of the dry areas over a five day period. Exactly the kind of pattern that will help the drought areas.
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720. Grothar
1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Took a good jog NE.

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719. CloudGatherer
1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 16:24:34 N Lon : 129:34:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 912.8mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.5


Wow. Just, wow. CIMSS is still registering an intensifying cyclone. The raw and adjusted T#s are now up to 7.5 - that'd be a 155kt cyclone. Even the current intensity estimate, now edging up to 149kts, is stunning. This is a Category 5 storm - no ifs, ands, or buts about it.
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718. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Thanks. It will probably exceed Megi of 2010.


Megi central pressure was a 885 hPa (reference)
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715. CaribBoy
1:13 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Of course yes.....

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EAST ONCE NADINE HAS MOVED NORTH
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.


AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NADINE.
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714. washingtonian115
1:13 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Nice wave coming off of Africa.Do models develop it?.
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713. CloudGatherer
1:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Typhoon Tip part 2?????
At the moment, CIMSS puts Sanba's 34 kt wind radii at 100km, and the JTWC puts them at 180-200km. At its peak, Tip had wind radii of 1100km - five to ten times as much as Sanba. But that's just radii. The more accurate way to say the same thing is that if you were to place Sanba on top of Tip, using the most generous estimates being put out right now, it would cover 3.5% of that storm's area.

And that's without comparing central pressures, windspeeds, or other indicae of intensity.

So let's not hyperventilate here. Sanba is a beautiful, intense tropical cyclone - and will quite likely be the strongest storm of the year in any ocean. Isn't that enough on its own?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
712. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
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711. CaribBoy
1:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
GFS develops another fish. That's the year of fishes
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710. sunshineandshowers
1:09 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's insane. I know. These folks are just salivating at this wishing hoping and praying - clinging on to any hope that if only the Atlantic could see this....

Not happening...


if that happened i think the site would crash! obviously a storm like this near land is not good news. Okinawa and S.Korea and Kyushu need to prepare, they had a good drill with Bolaven. But for the short-term, no-one is in danger, and we can all take in the awesome beauty of these systems. To get to 910hPa in the WPac, so quickly, is remarkable.

I suspect the storm will decay faster than forecast. This year, the JTWC seems to have over-egged the staying power of the storms.

It won't be typhoon tip as it's far, far smaller, but def looks to be one of the strongest storms of the last 5 years.
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709. beell
1:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR


..DIAL.. 09/13/2012


This could be another round of severe weather for the Ohio Valley/NE usa and possibly down to the mid atlantic...unfortunately the SE US is too far south of hte trough for anything major this time, but will still see a cold front.

In both this trough and the next one, shear is lackluster, but the polar and subtropical jets do phase togehter.
The next big trough is in 10-15 days and is expected to be larger than this one, although its possible effects are not known yet. It is currnetly over towards alaska and russia extending south into the pacific.


Probably the determinant factor-as low level ridging may block returns.
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708. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2012


NADINE BEING SCREWED!
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707. washingtonian115
1:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Is it a shame that some of my co-workers want Sanba to hit Korea head on as a super typhoon?.It's sickening.
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706. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
21:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (910 hPa) located at 16.3N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 19.7N 128.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 23.6N 127.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 29.3N 126.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
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703. sunshineandshowers
12:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Sanba's RI has been mindblowing. I didn't check on here, as I thought it'd be 24hrs plus to organise..and then I casually look to see what's happening and I'm completely shocked! Classic September Philippines region RI. A serious storm, indeed. I think we could see her peak at 180mph at this rate. Plenty of energy ahead, and plenty of time to go through several EWRCs.

I don't understand how some people only focus on the atlantic when this is happening!
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702. washingtonian115
12:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

This is not the Atlantic Basin. And there is no seeding efforts going on. No chance.
I know this isn't the Atlantic :).It's just that I'm waiting for the natural enemies of T.C's to do their work on Sanba.People are in the path.Be different if it was swirling out in the pacific minding it's business then I wouldn't mind it being this strong.
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701. allancalderini
12:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poor Korea if that track verifies.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
700. Tropicsweatherpr
12:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Nadine still at 60kts on 12z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2012091312, , BEST, 0, 220N, 517W, 60, 990, TS
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
699. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
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698. CloudGatherer
12:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
UW-CIMSS is spitting out a CI of 7.2 - that's a 146kt storm, with a central pressure of 915.9. And the raw numbers are higher. JMA puts the current pressure at 910MB, although its more conservative methodology of using 10-minute winds puts them at only 105kts.

It's just a crazy storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
696. washingtonian115
12:48 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
I'm waiting for shear and dry air to tear the system apart.The system is headed for land for pete sake!.
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695. GeorgiaStormz
12:44 PM GMT on September 13, 2012


DAY 5-6...GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS SUCH AS DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
AND TIMING PERSIST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER
THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY /DAY 5/. AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...WITH THREAT CONTINUING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES DAY 6
. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH
AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTORS...BUT
THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


..DIAL.. 09/13/2012


This could be another round of severe weather for the Ohio Valley/NE usa and possibly down to the mid atlantic...unfortunately the SE US is too far south of hte trough for anything major this time, but will still see a cold front.

In both this trough and the next one, shear is lackluster, but the polar and subtropical jets do phase togehter.
The next big trough is in 10-15 days and is expected to be larger than this one, although its possible effects are not known yet. It is currnetly over towards alaska and russia extending south into the pacific.
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694. GeorgiaStormz
12:37 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Guchol:


Sanba:
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693. stoormfury
12:37 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Looking at a small area of disturbed weather east of Trinidad near 10n 35 w and moving west. this area is in the monsoon trough, with dry air to it's west and north which is limiting the amount of convection. Although the area looks insignicant at this time,there is good vorticity at the 850mb ,750mb.and 500mb lvels. wind shear is in the 5-10 knots range and the forecast is for it to remain so the next 72 hrs.The system does not have a look of something imminent , but conditions are there for something to spin up unexpectantly. The area is still over 1200miles away which gives enough time to monitor the situation.
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692. Tropicsweatherpr
12:35 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Look at that S type wave emerging West Africa.

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691. islander101010
12:32 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
keys disturbance could get a invest number this afternoon
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690. weatherh98
12:29 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Off to school bye
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689. weatherh98
12:27 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Looks like she is about to return to her North-northwest track. Storm looks annular.


We would need another EWRC.
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688. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:25 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 37.2N 144.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 7 knots.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
687. ILwthrfan
12:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
Incredible



Looks like she is about to return to her North-northwest track. Storm looks annular.
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685. wxchaser97
12:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Have a great day everyone, I got to go to school. Here is my blog for those who didn't see it.
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684. wxchaser97
12:22 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Morning Isaac.

I'd have to agree

Rapid Intensification for real

Yup Harrison, that's one strong storm the wpac got on their hands.
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682. weatherh98
12:21 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Incredible
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681. ILwthrfan
12:19 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Why is Sanba moving northeast? Is this just a temporary jog or did her increase in intensity cause her to adjust to a different steering layer than forecasted?
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679. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanba (992 hPa)

---------

24 hours later..

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (915 hPa)

-----------

that is quite a drop in pressure.
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678. yqt1001
12:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
A. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/1132Z

C. 16.3N

D. 129.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR BY CMG YIELDED A
7.5 DT. MET INDICATES 7.0. PT INDICATES 6.5. DBO MET DUE TO 6
HOURLY CONSTRAINTS. 24 HOURLY CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

Wow, JTWC's dvorak came back with 7.0 (140kts, 160mph) but had to be lowered to 6.5 (125kts, 145mph) due to 24 hourly constraints. No doubt going to be an upper-end category 4 at the next update and if it holds current structure category 5 after that.
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677. wxchaser97
12:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:
Total and complete wow.


Wow= somewhere between ouch boing. Sanba is a perfect storm to watch, hopefully it doesn't hit land as this.
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676. weathermanwannabe
12:15 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
Good Morning. Reviewing this season so far, we cannot just look at the lack of a major impacting the Caribbean or US on the Atlantic end. Looking across the board at the numbers on the Atlantic side and on the Pacific side (both E-Pac and W-Pac), this is has been one of the most active seasons for both basins that I have seen in a long time. Not surprising on the Pacific side because of the warmer temps due to the marginal El Nino but quite surprising numbers wise on the Atlantic side as well......Very high numbers across the board this year.
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