Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.


Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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484. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM SANBA (T1216)
9:00 AM JST September 11 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanba (1004 hPa) located at 9.4N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 12.0N 133.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 14.8N 133.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 17.1N 130.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
483. Skyepony (Mod)
Leslie..this is like one I've never seen. Part of the rain shafts toward the ground are missing in a straight line. The waves aren't that high.
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Leslie Y U NOT DEAD YET???.Micheal bless his heart he is still holding on and will certainly be remembered as a good lesson when it comes to forecasting T.C's.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yay, now it will be a hurricane for a bit and then hit New foundland as an extra-tropical storm.

Except it's going to make landfall within the next few hours. Not enough time to weaken below hurricane status...not that 4 mph makes a difference anyways.
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Good evening, bloggers
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Quoting Thing342:
Leslie is a Hurricane once more, per ATCF.

AL, 12, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 411N, 585W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 280, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,

Yay, now it will be a hurricane for a bit and then hit New foundland as an extra-tropical storm.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From West Palm Beach...When I see highs in the 70's, I'll know that Fall is here...



Unfortunately not for a while. I am really tired of the 95 degree days. Both Sunday & today hit 97 in our little corner of Kendall. Its time for the dog days to be over.
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477. Skyepony (Mod)
Micheal yesterday on TRMM. Click pic for super big quicktime through the eye.
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I'm over hurricane season.Really looking forward to fall and winter now.It was very beautiful today and will stay that way through the week.Lows will get into the 40's in some places!!.I see the models are depicting a strong west coast storm that could transit into(hopefully) a nor'easter over here.
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Leslie is a Hurricane once more, per ATCF.

AL, 12, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 411N, 585W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 280, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like 91L will be another under achiever.Hopefully we'll have some good storms to track next year.Similar to 2010.

We can't give up hope yet, it could pull a Michael, Kirk, or Gordon.
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Looks like 91L will be another under achiever.Hopefully we'll have some good storms to track next year.Similar to 2010.
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Only Hurricane threat after mid September is to the Gulf Coast states. As we enter into fall, troughs get stronger and stronger and anything coming from Cape Verde tends to be a nice Fish event. Too bad for Newfoundland they will get hit but all models indicate through September all fish
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As far as the confusion this morning pertaining to 91L being renumbered to TD 14...a gentleman from facebook, Jim Harris, wrote me this message...

Just for your information and hopefully in the future you can pass it on when a same situation happens - let me go a little further in depth. I see a lot of people who think when they see at the navy site - a numbered (such as fourteen today) they assume that is official. The navy site has nothing to do with the naming or numbering of a system. Only the NHC can do that. All they (the navy) does is what the rest of us do: use the data in the decks. The decks however are not official. Although there may be a numbered system does not necessarily mean that the NHC will number it.

Now referring to the ATCF, as I said before, the message today was a test of the HPC_ATCF. You would not have known that and many people today thought 91L was being renumbered to TD fourteen. It did look to be legit as many people also saw the fourteen at the SFWDM site and that confused many people. ALSO, even if the header had the NHC_ATCF - this again does not necessarily mean that a system is going to be imminently going to given a name/number. As always, the only way to be sure is to see at the NHC site. As for the HPC, the HPC has always been the backup site for NHC, and every year they have a test system.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From West Palm Beach...When I see highs in the 70's, I'll know that Fall is here...

That might be November.
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From West Palm Beach...When I see highs in the 70's, I'll know that Fall is here...

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Michael does not want to let go.

AL, 13, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 348N, 478W, 65, 989, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 15, 1014, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
nippy tonight. but mosquitos prevail lol living near a swamp


no doubt!!! chilly here in wilmington nc..but the moquitos are by far the worst i have ever seen!
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
nippy tonight. but mosquitos prevail lol living near a swamp

lol
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Do hurricane rains stunt plant growth?

I'm wondering about Isaac, because we got about 17 inches o rain where I live, but the grass did not grow much afterwards. We don't have any standing puddles, so water standing around flooding or choking the grass isn't/wasn't an issue.

The grass has started growing again after the front came through two days ago.

Since the isotopic ratios of hydrogen and oxygen are altered in hurricane rains, could this effect the growth rate of grass?


What happens when humans drink pure isotopic water of different variations?

Like every combination of atomic isotopes?

2 protium 1 oxygen
1 protium, 1 deuterium, 1 oxygen
2 deuterium, 1 oxygen

And repeat for each oxygen isotope.


Have studies been done to see how high concentrations of a single isotope effects plant and animals (or humans)?!


Maybe it's all just a coincidence, or maybe the hurricane really did stunt the grass growth.


maybe there are no standing puddles but its still a high water table/moisture content and root rot.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
when does the cape verde season usually stop?
towards end of sept first week of october
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
when does the cape verde season usually stop?


When the first major cold front moves all the way thru the Carribaen normally!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


They already have Christmas stuff in the stores!


before we know it
it will be thanksgiving in canada
which this year is oct 8th

and on the weekend
i start reformatting my blog page
for fall/winter 2012/2013
and keep a downsized tropical section
till the end of cane season

yep fall/winter is coming
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


They already have Christmas stuff in the stores!


LOL-It's too hot.
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Quoting weatherbro:
In 10 days models are really adamit in ushering Florida's Fall season, practically ending rainy season. In fact a semi-permanent trough sets up in the east which should make our late Sep/early Oct weather dynamite!
That would be great! Been such a hot summer, AC sending FPL bill sky high.
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Quoting spathy:


Click back to the last page and das not pop up poofed.


The pop up is from on old archived stationary satellite image of the earth on the previous page.

No big deal.
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Quoting weatherbro:


why not?...Halloween's just around the corner.:)


They already have Christmas stuff in the stores!
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Quoting will40:


California
oh ok thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Do hurricane rains stunt plant growth?

I'm wondering about Isaac, because we got about 17 inches o rain where I live, but the grass did not grow much afterwards. We don't have any standing puddles, so water standing around flooding or choking the grass isn't/wasn't an issue.

The grass has started growing again after the front came through two days ago.

Since the isotopic ratios of hydrogen and oxygen are altered in hurricane rains, could this effect the growth rate of grass?


What happens when humans drink pure isotopic water of different variations?

Like every combination of atomic isotopes?

2 protium 1 oxygen
1 protium, 1 deuterium, 1 oxygen
2 deuterium, 1 oxygen

And repeat for each oxygen isotope.


Have studies been done to see how high concentrations of a single isotope effects plant and animals (or humans)?!


Maybe it's all just a coincidence, or maybe the hurricane really did stunt the grass growth.
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Michael is probably no longer a hurricane:



17W is looking good:

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Quoting spathy:


Say it aint so!
Dont end my thunderstorm season just yet! PLEASE!


why not?...Halloween's just around the corner.:)
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448. auburn (Mod)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The first eight months of 2012 have been the warmest of any year on record in the contiguous United States, and this has been the third-hottest summer since record-keeping began in 1895, the U.S. National Climate Data Center said on Monday.
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Leslie is losing tropical characteristics.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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In 10 days models are really adamit in ushering Florida's Fall season, practically ending rainy season. In fact a semi-permanent trough sets up in the east which should make our late Sep/early Oct weather dynamite!
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443. auburn (Mod)
Quoting indianrivguy:


Had some illness, drove me to the poorhouse for awhile, but things are definitely looking up. I was just selected as the next Indian Riverkeeper, so I am now a full time advocate of the Indian River lagoon.


Yea I got one of those now..thank goodness for insurance..only females and American Indians get what I have..and I dont make a pretty girl...LOL
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Had some illness, drove me to the poorhouse for awhile, but things are definitely looking up. I was just selected as the next Indian Riverkeeper, so I am now a full time advocate of the Indian River lagoon.


Awesome.....glad your well again. Been down that road. Been fighting high blood pressure control....UP DOWN UP DOWN....seems i just can't get on the right stuff. Frustrating as heck.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey brother...just thought i would pop in to see how all was doing....Not been around to much...HOW YOU BEEN


Had some illness, drove me to the poorhouse for awhile, but things are definitely looking up. I was just selected as the next Indian Riverkeeper, so I am now a full time advocate of the Indian River lagoon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:

CA like Central America because I just see the usa.


California
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Quoting spathy:


Hummm?
Uh oh!
Can you do that?
I get a small percentage Tampa!
Um consulting,ummm finders,umm, some kind o fee?


LOL...why not...everyone else wants a piece...
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 102345
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND... AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1175 MILES
WEST OF THE AZORES.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
436. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Who got poofed?
someone named MASTERSOX or something like that..foul mouth..
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91L still at 90%
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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