Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Good morning...remember to keep the Olympics out of the blog thanks!!


v v v its in the blog! v v v
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
No wonder it rains every day in Florida, LOL. Those dew points are horrible, dew point here is 69 and that is too high for me.


You know it's funny I ran into somebody several weeks back from Lufkin,TX and she said the heat here is way worse here than in TX. I told her it's hotter in TX temp wise but the humidity here is what makes it feel much worse than it does in TX. It can be 95 here with a dewpoint of 75 to 80 on daily basis.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
No wonder it rains every day in Florida, LOL. Those dew points are horrible, dew point here is 69 and that is too high for me.


Yuck! That is high for out that way. And way high in Florida. Ours is pretty low by comparison.



Fair
84°F
29°C
Humidity79%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.02 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index94°F (34°C)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any obs from the area that Ernesto came ashore last night?


The area of landfall is sparsely populated, so I doubt there were any weather stations on land. The only information I've been able to find is from weather stations near Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, and San Pedro Island, Belize. I believe San Pedro is the closest to landfall and the weather station there showed 47 mph sustained with a high gust of 54 mph. Even with the small eye of Ernesto, it's hard to believe he ever got to category 2 before landfall.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Everyone from FL to Maine need to be on alert come mid August as that would be the time that this wave over Africa would be approaching the US coast or Canada coast.

You always forget us here in Bermuda STK..!!..u bas&^%$..jk..really jk
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5.6 Earthquake, Alaska Peninsula
Depth 16.0 km (9.9 miles)
20 minutes ago
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
No wonder it rains every day in Florida, LOL. Those dew points are horrible, dew point here is 69 and that is too high for me.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Everyone from FL to Maine need to be on alert come mid August as that would be the time that this wave over Africa would be approaching the US coast or Canada coast.



any model pics?
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Quoting hydrus:
What about the Antilles..They dont count now.?..jk...really...jk..:)


LOL I see you caught that from this morning huh. I think the guy from Canada felt left out. Which in all honesty he is right as their have been some runs of the GFS taking a hurricane up into Nova Scotia.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
.............................hmm the Nam has something off the east coast of florida around friday or saturday morning but it doesnt come in to florida..wish i could animate this..cant...anyway..a small yellow blob there on friday
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like 92L is getting better organized this morning.



Assuming that it does get its act together, the GFS sure wants to make this Ernesto the second. I hope not. The blog will be nuts again. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It is on this one if you can get it to open. Link



The oz run is complete as well as the 06 run. FYI in case you can get it to run. 00z curves the Atlantic aoi close to FL. the 06 curves up into NC. I think this is the next possible invest, not 92L
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all. Ernesto was probably a Category 2 at landfall last night, it's a shame we never got a recon into Ernesto as it made landfall. Anyways, it appears increasingly more likely that we will have Gordon later this week, possibly by Friday.


Any obs from the area that Ernesto came ashore last night?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Everyone from FL to Maine need to be on alert come mid August as that would be the time that this wave over Africa would be approaching the US coast or Canada coast.

What about the Antilles..They dont count now.?..jk...really...jk..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Last Winter I never needed a jacket and mowed the yard year around, I would Love to have a Winter, I tell you what Texas gets enough darn Summer where it should get a Winter every year, LOL


Lol. I have no idea where our jackets are. I'll be lucky to find shoes you have to wear socks with. :)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like 92L is getting better organized this morning.




I'm going to nitpick and say the circulations are not stacked.
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Morning all. Ernesto was probably a Category 2 at landfall last night, it's a shame we never got a recon into Ernesto as it made landfall. Anyways, it appears increasingly more likely that we will have Gordon later this week, possibly by Friday.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It is on this one if you can get it to open. Link
thank you
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like 92L is getting better organized this morning.

.so far they have the track going thru the islands like ernesto
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Good morning...remember to keep the Olympics out of the blog thanks!!
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Looks like 92L is getting better organized this morning.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Dewpoint is 81 here Largo.
..yes very humid here might be a sea breeze storm or two later on huh
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Everyone from FL to Maine need to be on alert come mid August as that would be the time that this wave over Africa would be approaching the US coast or Canada coast.

..ST we need to chill, its not even off africa yet..lets wait and see how it developes and looks off shore..
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Quoting LargoFl:


Dewpoint is 81 here Largo.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:


How the storm looks over land in Africa is historically a poor predictor of how (or if) it might develop over the Atlantic. Since everything is 5-7 days out, there will be a lot of speculation here, and it will take a couple of days before the models even start to give a halfway descent track. Just keep an eye on things and all will soon become known. :)


sar2401~ Thank you, It's just that huge one still in the water just caught my eye.

sheri
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Quoting NCweatherwatcher:
I have been a lurker for a while on this blog and I find all of the information here very fascinating and educational. Thanks to Dr. Masters and everyone else for keeping many informed on the weather in the tropics and how it could effect the people in the CONUS and elsewhere.


As for the tropics right now I think busy will be an understatement for the foreseeable future with 92L fizzling out and the new wave getting ready to come off the coast of Africa that the GFS has putting a bullseye on the east coast of the US. Thanks again for all the information and I will keep checking in regularly for what I think is a more in-depth analysis of the tropics then what I can get elsewhere whether its on TV or other sites on the web.


Everyone from FL to Maine need to be on alert come mid August as that would be the time that this wave over Africa would be approaching the US coast or Canada coast.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That would be nice. It was plenty wet last year but not cool at all.
Last Winter I never needed a jacket and mowed the yard year around, I would Love to have a Winter, I tell you what Texas gets enough darn Summer where it should get a Winter every year, LOL
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Quoting floridaboy14:
whats up with the 0z GFS run? its not complete!


It is on this one if you can get it to open. Link
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off-topic, but has anyone played the games on the homepage of google?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I see weatherh98 was trying to tell me about the wave can anyone else see what I'm talking about. I know it may not be important, but I'm just wondering.

Thank you,
sheri

Good morning everyone. yesterday someone post a image of Africa with the waves coming across, on the other side of Africa in the water there was a huge monster of a wave it looked like a octopus with all the legs, what I'm getting at I didn't want to get into it yesterday with all the stuff that was going on with Ernie, but that wave being that big can it survive coming across Africa and hit the Atlantic and get big again? I really don't know if it's still there or not. But that thing was huge, I've never really notice or seen shots of the other side so maybe this is a usual thing that happens and they just die off once they hit Africa land, I don't know.

sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have been a lurker for a while on this blog and I find all of the information here very fascinating and educational. Thanks to Dr. Masters and everyone else for keeping many informed on the weather in the tropics and how it could effect the people in the CONUS and elsewhere.


As for the tropics right now I think busy will be an understatement for the foreseeable future with 92L fizzling out and the new wave getting ready to come off the coast of Africa that the GFS has putting a bullseye on the east coast of the US. Thanks again for all the information and I will keep checking in regularly for what I think is a more in-depth analysis of the tropics then what I can get elsewhere whether its on TV or other sites on the web.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good morning everyone. yesterday someone post a image of Africa with the waves coming across, on the other side of Africa in the water there was a huge monster of a wave it looked like a octopus with all the legs, what I'm getting at I didn't want to get into it yesterday with all the stuff that was going on with Ernie, but that wave being that big can it survive coming across Africa and hit the Atlantic and get big again? I really don't know if it's still there or not. But that thing was huge, I've never really notice or seen shots of the other side so maybe this is a usual thing that happens and they just die off once they hit Africa land, I don't know.

sheri


How the storm looks over land in Africa is historically a poor predictor of how (or if) it might develop over the Atlantic. Since everything is 5-7 days out, there will be a lot of speculation here, and it will take a couple of days before the models even start to give a halfway descent track. Just keep an eye on things and all will soon become known. :)
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


the one on the far right?



yeah it was still in the water.

sheri
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160. CJ5
We may be seeing 92L start to take shape. She is beginning to pull cloud cover and taking on some shape.
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lol I'm in FL not NYC so ya i'm little late
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


little late there....its been a diffused situation for hours
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting oddspeed:
3 Typhoons in one week hit China

Link

China is facing its third typhoon in a single week, as Haikui strengthened from a tropical storm on Sunday into a typhoon on Monday afternoon.


Thanks for the link.
Not the kind of record one wishes to set!
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whats up with the 0z GFS run? its not complete!
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Quoting pcola57:
Hurricaine return periods..handy tool/reminder..keep in mind our changing climatology will affect these results in time.. :)


ga coast hasnt gotten a hurricane in more than 11 years....they only even have one 1 storm i remember hearing about....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
NEW YORK (AP) -- Authorities say a fire on the 88th floor of the New York City skyscraper under construction at ground zero is likely a false alarm.
Link


little late there....its been a diffused situation for hours
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The Mali Monster is likely to be a dud, not unlike a new 18-year-old phenom said to the be the new Mickey Mantle.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


True. I'll start feeling a lot better about things come October. :)


I'll start feeling better in November (El Nino impact).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
looking at are next TS or Hurricane
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
alrighty im off too

s
scc

schho

dang i cant say it.

oh well you get the point see yas latas gatas
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Quoting hydrus:
Just before Ernesto made landfall on the Mexican mainland, he made an Atoll-fall on a place known as Chinchorro. That's Banco Chinchorro underneath Ernesto's convective center plume. It is the largest Coral Atoll in the northern hemisphere, and has been long infamous among ship captains for it's hard to navigate shallows. There have been more than 20 ship wrecks there from the colonial times through the present day.


I've done some diving there. It's a neat place, probably has the best wreck dives in the Caibbean. There's everything from a Spanish galleon to a modern ferryboat. All the wrecks tend to move around when there's a hurricane, so I hope Ernesto wasn't strong enough to destroy any of them.

You've got to give props to the GFS, and most other models, on Ernesto. They had it pegged pretty good by three days out. I'm glad it didn't split the goal posts and get into the GOM, as a few here continued to wishcast up to about one minute before landfall. :)
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Yeah not too worried about Ernesto re-entering water into the BOC.

Quoting jeffs713:

He is unlikely to make it over the BOC... he would need to move at 270-275 just to break the coastline, but 280+ to actually move fully over water. With him moving around 260 degrees... yeah, not gonna happen.
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Quoting naviguesser:


(In the next 48 hours... careful how you read that)
..same forecast for 91L and it poofed except for alot of rain..its just a wave now
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


For obvious reasons of coarse.


reasons?
who? what?

i didn't see ANYTHING lol..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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