Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:22 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.

Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.

Jeff Masters

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02/1145 UTC 12.8N 53.1W T1.5/2.0 05L -- Atlantic
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. Opinions on all sides of the fence as usual this morning which is healthy. My take: As noted by NHC since yesterday, the short-term fate of TD-5 hinges on it's proximity to the huge upper level low (at 28N-45W on the WV loop below) which dominates the large scale environment to the North and NW of the storm. For the time being, the ULL keeps on producing SW sheer over the system and flowing in a large amount of dry air and TD-5 has very little room to breathe.

There will be no significant development of TD-5, other than TS status, until there is considerable separation between it and the ULL. Too early to tell what might happen in the short term (ripped apart by sheer) or the long term (hurricane potential in 5-7 days if there is enough separation by the time the storm reaches the vicinity of the Yucatan).

That's all I have for the moment; just need to sit back and see how well the depression fights off the sheer and dry air from the ULL over the next 72 hours.

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Get it out and check it now.

ok I'll check it soon
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Once td5 stays on a W-WNW track shear shouldn't be a problem, 2 degrees more north and its gone imo.
Hmm shear should be no problem for T.D 5/future Ernesto once it reaches the caribbean.If it can stay south of Jamaica.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
look at the sat on the SW side of TD5 seems like convection is getting dragged into TD5 which could indicate strengthening
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1371. ryang
Wow, TD 5 is looking really good right now compared to last night. RECON will be interesting.
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Quoting thelmores:
No disrespect, but I find it pretty funny we have a ragged looking TD, which may not even survive as a classified storm in the next day or two, but people already are banking on the fact that it will hit the gulf coast somewhere! LOL

With all due respect, I would submit it is just as likely that TD5 becomes an open wave, or even if it does hold together, hit the Yucatan....... and never even enter the Gulf at all!

My point? A storm, if you can call TD5 that, that is struggling so badly at the moment, that looks so ragged after coming out of Dmax, is extremely difficult to forecast! I would discount ANY and ALL model solutions at this point past 2-3 days......

Just my $0.02!
still live in san diego? good to see your characters appearance
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah true boy I tell you I need a new generator but don't have the money I have one more but I got it just after Ivan and not even take it out the box yet so don't know if it even works and the other one is rusty and dead by salt air you know how that is
Get it out and check it now.
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I am in Panama City Beach, this is from the Tallahassee NWS office discussion this morning:


Long term...
[sunday through wednesday] by Sunday the Atlantic ridge
strengthens over the region. A trof associated with a low moving
east through the Great Lakes will be making its way into the
miss. River Valley. By Monday and Tuesday pop chances elevate to
between 40 and 50 percent due to added moisture from the tropics
and the arrival of the trof into our County Warning Area. Temperatures can be
expected to reach the mid 90s in most areas and dip into the low
to mid 70s each night. Current GFS and Euro runs keep Tropical
Depression Five well to the south of our area through the period.
Both models bring what would be Ernesto into the Yucatan Peninsula
on Thursday on a westerly track.
At this time it appears that the
quick exit of the eastern Seaboard trof on Tuesday and subsequent
rebuilding of the ridge over the southeast will keep this system
on its current westerly track.
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1367. leo305
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

It's centered nicely in the square...


The center is on the western side of that square..
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Once td5 stays on a W-WNW track shear shouldn't be a problem, 2 degrees more north and its gone imo.
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G'morn SJ. You gotta guess on this ones ultimate destination? Will Oz get his chase on?
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Quoting islander101010:
who's going to get it first?

Barbados
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Quoting thelmores:
No disrespect, but I find it pretty funny we have a ragged looking TD, which may not even survive as a classified storm in the next day or two, but people already are banking on the fact that it will hit the gulf coast somewhere! LOL

With all due respect, I would submit it is just as likely that TD5 becomes an open wave, or even if it does hold together, hit the Yucatan....... and never even enter the Gulf at all!

My point? A storm, if you can call TD5 that, that is struggling so badly at the moment, that looks so ragged after coming out of Dmax, is extremely difficult to forecast! I would discount ANY and ALL model solutions at this point past 2-3 days......

Just my $0.02!


If this is ragged to you... So be it.. This is MUCH better organized to me then it was las night. You're titled to your opinion though.

It's small, but a well developed TD
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who's going to get it first?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1360. hulakai
greetings wxwatchers. It's begining to look alot like august.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flas h-swir-short.html

at the moment td5 looks to me to be winding up as shear eases, but the rule of (somebody help here) if it doesn't form by _____ longitude, it probably won't until W carib. Also, still low so not too much help from coriolis.

That said, if it gets into that soup in the GOM this blog will get alot busier.
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It's centered nicely in the square...
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well ernesto survived that beating. 40 knots of northerly shear. dry air from the north and 20 knots from the southwest. know that its moved further west it looks nicer. now all of the models are hinting a turn to the north though
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Quoting stormpetrol:


TD5 Getting that hook look to it.

this could be another Dean starting to looks really good and last night it looked like there was nothing there
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Quoting Pocamocca:

This afternoon, Wash.


Ehh knowing the NHC, I'm thinking the usual around 5 p.m. ;)
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With the way the Gulf coast has been rainy this year unfortunately it wouldn't surprise me to see a hurricane in the Gulf.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
No disrespect, but I find it pretty funny we have a ragged looking TD, which may not even survive as a classified storm in the next day or two, but people already are banking on the fact that it will hit the gulf coast somewhere! LOL

With all due respect, I would submit it is just as likely that TD5 becomes an open wave, or even if it does hold together, hit the Yucatan....... and never even enter the Gulf at all!

My point? A storm, if you can call TD5 that, that is struggling so badly at the moment, that looks so ragged after coming out of Dmax, is extremely difficult to forecast! I would discount ANY and ALL model solutions at this point past 2-3 days......

Just my $0.02!
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TD 5 waking up.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all.

I see TD 5 is fighting the elements. Holding its own for now, but marginally.

Poca, what makes you say it's a large system? Currently it looks fairly small to me.

Latest GFS does not paint a pretty picture, but long range models are pretty worthless other than presenting very slight possibilities.
dvorak view decent size convection is pretty tight
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Also to notice the structure of TD5 last night was flat and elongated.. This morning it is more round and circular. It also looks like (on the CIMMS map) it's meeting up with an anticyclone to its WSW. As Levi says "we shall see what happens".

Oh and now that this is a smaller storm, remember that smaller storms have better advantages to strengthens.. They can become little monsters.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am good. You know I will blast you when it is necessary but I got your back when you are right. Better get some gas before the lines get too long LOL.

yeah true boy I tell you I need a new generator but don't have the money I have one more but I got it just after Ivan and not even take it out the box yet so don't know if it even works and the other one is rusty and dead by salt air you know how that is
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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 012220
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0630 PM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-075 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 02/1530Z
D. 12.4N 54.4W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-
A. 03/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 03/0400Z
D. 13.0N 57.5W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pocamocca:

Good morning. I'm in Pelican Bay, just south of Ft. Myers. I moved here from Isle of Palms, SC.


My neck of the woods...Sort of. I spent 4 years on Folly before we moved up to Summerville.

Morning DBW, good to see you.

Is this mornings run of the GFS faster than previous runs? It has it in the Gulf at 150hrs. Would explain the more northerly component with the ridge not having time to build back in if it gets there faster.
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With the way T.D 5 is organizing won't be surprised if it's deemed Ernesto by sometime today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Cool!!:)
Quoting Tazmanian:



but the nhc dos not all ways go buy this so even no the T # may show TS the nhc may keep this has a TD in tell recon can go out for TD 5 check up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
THX!!:)



welcome
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
THX!!:)



but the nhc dos not all ways go buy this so even no the T # may show TS the nhc may keep this has a TD in tell recon can go out for TD 5 check up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


TD5 Getting that hook look to it.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

aww
thank you stormwatcher I think I just had a tear form in my eye
so stormwatcher good morning and how are you
I am good. You know I will blast you when it is necessary but I got your back when you are right. Better get some gas before the lines get too long LOL.
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I say TD5 will be TS Ernesto by 2pm today

I think HH is to takeoff at 11am I think
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THX!!:)
Quoting Tazmanian:


this is the Tropical Cyclones
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) site wish is where am geting the T # form and from the time i been up they been slowey been going up up and a way


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Just a word of advice as we enter into the busy part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to avoid quoting and engaging in arguments with trolls. I know this has been said dozens of times in the past week, but I observed some really unnecessary conversations between the good bloggers on here and the trolls, if you don't pay them no mind they will eventually go away, or just put them on ignore every time they comeback. I know that gets annoying too, but we just have to stay discipline and not give in. Hopefully admin will do the best to take the garbage out back. There is some really nice people in here, some who have been around for years, and some who just joined recently, and then they are the really gifted and self sophisticated bloggers who are either in the process of becoming a meteorologist or who someday want to become one.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that??


this is the Tropical Cyclones
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) site wish is where am geting the T # form and from the time i been up they been slowey been going up up and a way


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
good point. we never know how strong or weak the High and trough could be
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Looking MUCH better this morning as predicted by some last night. TD5 is now under 10-20 knots, so this small ball of convection may continue to expand and strengthen. Center is no longer exposed. Probably a TS by tonight.

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Gonna be another beautiful day in Florida. Guess the weekend wont be so nice.
Good Morning All....
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What is that??
Quoting Tazmanian:
still going up



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1009.9mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.4 2.4



raw T # is now 2.4
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
we may have Ernesto by 11AM!!
Quoting reedzone:
Wind shear has dropped to marginal conditions over TD5. We should see Ernesto tonight.. I'm also noticing how wind shear is dropping in the Western Caribbean. Gotta give this time folks, we still may get something big.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
still going up



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1009.9mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.4 2.4



raw T # is now 2.4
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It does lookmuch better than a few hours ago when thunderstorms werealms non-existent. We go through this with every storm when they lose a little convection. Everyone says poof and the they spring back. IIRC when wunderkidcayman ket saying Debby would develop many on here caled him an idiot. Wasn't so dumb after all, eh.

aww
thank you stormwatcher I think I just had a tear form in my eye
so stormwatcher good morning and how are you
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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