Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:22 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.

Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

But the center will likely pass south of them.


Tal vez. I really don't know what's likely. I just thought it strange reading different bloggers' opinions of the possibilities/scenarios, that none included the mountains.
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There's an interesting thing about TD 5.
It formed into a tropical depression before it became (it becomes) a tropical storm.
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby all formed into (sub)tropical storms, skipping tropical depression status.
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Quoting katadman:


All of those mountains are within the cone of uncertainty published by the NHC.


Only if it follows the northern edge. We'll have a better idea if those will come into play in a few days.
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"THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST."

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Quoting yoboi:


i had asked ya that the other day if ya recall about the upper west coast getting below normal cool next week i had ask ya about that trough in ak it looks like it could be a game changer usually 3 rd week or 4th week of august we see a trough that strong



yep but 988 in a mided of AK then followed by a big cool down with may be snow is a littl early for them
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Quoting Landfall2012:


I'm glad to hear it. I'm well as well. Thanks. I'm just here waiting like you, to see where TD-5 will go. Are the mets over there in Texas already talking about the system possibly impacting the state late next week?


Just the one guy basically saying what the EURO showed. How about in your neck of the woods?
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Quoting katadman:


The mountains of Hispanola, Jamaica and Cuba have all disrupted and even destroyed many cyclones.
So far it is forecast to most likely track south of Jamaica which would put it too far south of the other two for any disruption from mountains
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS WANED. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR CONVECTION
TO FLUCTUATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONES. EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.2/32 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD....WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
120 H. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST.

ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESS ABATES...
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL
HAS A VERY ROBUST CIRCULATION AS NOTED IN RECENT SSMI AND AMSU
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
FORECAST MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.6N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.2N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 15.8N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 16.8N 74.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting katadman:


All of those mountains are within the cone of uncertainty published by the NHC.

But the center will likely pass south of them.
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Things may look better in the morning, too.


most things do, but in TD 5's case looks like shear will give it a break in the short term ahead.
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Quoting angiest:


Forecast track isn't really near enough to any.


All of those mountains are within the cone of uncertainty published by the NHC.
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good evening everyone I just need to say that I love my country I am proud of it sometimes I hate living here for the fact that they are a lot of blackouts.I am tired for the past three months that every time I wake up there is no light or at 10 minutes later the light will go out or during dinner when the family is together.today my tv and my refrigerator got ruin.
finish rants.
td 5 looks awful but I am confident that it will strength into Ernesto.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionFive for 2August12amGMT:
MinimumPressure stayed at 1008millibars
MaximumSustainedWinds had held at 30knots(34.5mph)55.6km/h
Its vector changed from 292.2*WNW at 18.2mph(29.3km/h) to 284.4*WNW at 18.6mph(30km/h)

NEV-Nevis :: ANU-Antigua :: PTP-Guadeloupe :: DOM-Dominica :: FDF-Martinique :: UVF-St.Lucia

The Easternmost dot is where 99L became a LOw
The WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where 99L became TD.5
The ESEasternmost dot on the longest line is TD.5's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.5's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Martinique's coastline
On 1August6pmGMT, TD.5 had been headed for passage 6.3miles(10.2kilometres)SSWest of Antigua (ANU-dumbbell) before heading toward passage over Zion,Nevis (NEV-blob)
On 2August12amGMT, TD.5 was heading for passage 2miles(3.2kilometres)North of Martinique in ~1day15hours from now

Copy&paste axa, nev-17.134n62.542w, anu-17.004n61.833w-16.917n61.864w, ptp, dom, fdf, uvf, bgi, cru, gnd, tab, 9.3n39.8w- 9.7n41.7w- 10.3n43.6w- 10.9n45.3w- 11.4n46.7w- 12.0n48.2w, 12.0n48.2w-12.4n49.8w, 12.0n48.2w-14.905n61.134w, 14.877n61.139w-14.905n61.134w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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evening, folks.
#5 is out of the birthing tank aka ICTZ
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NHC Welcomes Back Stacy Stewart

Navy Reservist served in Iraq as part of troop surge

By Dennis Feltgen, NOAA NHC Public Affairs Officer

After nearly 20 months of active duty, Commander Stacy Stewart has returned to his civilian job as a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami.



His biggest adjustment is returning to South Florida traffic. "I was used to driving down the middle of the road in a 15,000 pound Hummer with a .50 caliber machine gun and avoiding any kind of debris," he said.

A 35-year Navy reservist, Stewart was recalled to active duty in January 2007 to aid in the troop surge in Iraq. He was part of the Coalition Army Advisory Training Team, providing advice and mentorship to three Iraqi Army divisions at An Neumaniyah Military Base. That's 20,000 Iraqi soldiers. He also assisted in the training of three Iraqi brigades.

Stewart says his greatest challenge in Iraq was just staying alive during any of the 160 end to end convoy movements in which he participated. "Once you left the base, you were no longer safe, even for just a few miles." During a mission on March 27, 2008, with Stewart serving as the forward machine gunner behind ballistic glass on top of a Hummer vehicle, an IED (improvised explosive device) detonated alongside the vehicle. No one was killed, but Stewart's left leg and knee were injured in the blast. Fortunately, he only required four months of physical therapy and rehabilitation.

Stewart is very adamant about his tour in Iraq. "I was honored to be able to go to Iraq as part of the surge. I saw it from the inside and I am proud of what my four teams accomplished. Iraq is a much better place now."

What he missed most while away was his family and co-workers. Being on an Iraqi base, there was no Post Exchange, post office, or chaplain. A food convoy had to be picked up and escorted 80 kilometers to his base every two weeks. The weather was rather dull, too. "There is not much weather in Iraq, just a lot of sand, dust and 125 degree heat. Sometimes, the sea breeze arrived and knocked it down to 115 in southern Iraq."

Back at the National Hurricane Center, Stewart is rapidly catching up on some of the revised operational procedures used to distribute the routine hurricane products, as well as working with some of the new computer models. He is already back at work with his NHC colleagues and issuing tropical cyclone advisories.
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Td 5 is now exposing it's center, convection needs to rebuild, if this thing wants to survive a pass through the caribbean.
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Quoting Landfall2012:
Good evening, Texas ma'am, I hope all is well with you tonight, madame?


Doing just great! Hope all is fine with you as well. :)
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Quoting katadman:
Interestingly (or maybe not so much), no one has mentioned the possibility of the storm getting shredded on the mountains in the Caribe.


Forecast track isn't really near enough to any.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which mountains ?


The mountains of Hispanola, Jamaica and Cuba have all disrupted and even destroyed many cyclones.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Ernesto at 11pm?

No. I thought he would go more bullish with it in the West Caribbean given his nature, but I guess not. Not yet anyways.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 50.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 50.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 59.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.7N 62.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 74.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting katadman:
Interestingly (or maybe not so much), no one has mentioned the possibility of the storm getting shredded on the mountains in the Caribe.


Someone did mention that don't remember who?
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Quoting yoboi:
taz what's ya thoughts on storm??



i think TD 5 will be a big storm down the rd whats see what it looks like in the AM when i wake up


all so i noted in the 384hr AK has the 1st big cold snap with the 528 line moveing on down may be snow? will see its long long way out there but where geting in too that time of year it would be on 8-17 if it plans out
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Isn't it a fact that when a potential storm is this far out the track usually shifts in direction before It's named?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stewart's writing this advisory. Know what that means?
Ernesto at 11pm?
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Quoting SOHOGator:
Hope this doesn't hook right in to Tampa just before the RNC. One one hand I'd like to see them scatter like bugs on the other hand south Tampa was barely able to handle ts debby


Knda like in 08.

GOP cancels convention festivities as Gustav roars in


David Lightman and William Douglas | McClatchy Newspapers

ST. PAUL, Minn. Republicans on Sunday dramatically changed the tenor and schedule of the party's national convention, canceling all opening day business Monday except for routine matters, as Hurricane Gustav bore down on the Gulf Coast.


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593. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


He* lol.


Oh excuse that, not sure why I wrote she... XD
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Quoting katadman:
Interestingly (or maybe not so much), no one has mentioned the possibility of the storm getting shredded on the mountains in the Caribe.
Which mountains ?
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Stewart's writing this advisory. Know what that means?
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Quoting lurkersince2008:
When a potential storm is this far out the model runs change every day for a while. Therefore, its too early to know for sure what it will do.





Not always. The GFS model nailed Debby when many of us thought she would travel west.

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Quoting JLPR2:


Ah come on! Everyone here would be suicidal if a monster like that formed in the Atl. I think she was referring to its size.

I see.
Yeah, Tip was the largest tropical cyclone on record. That's not a thing to compare with ATL hurricanes.



Hmm... I give up.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
If I were a model...
I wouldn't be orange....


If I were a Model..Id be eating Very Lil in Paris tonight.


Qui'
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Typhoons can look like hurricanes. They're both tropical cyclones.

Typhoon Tip, 1979
Typhoon Tip is TWICE the size of the largest Atlantic hurricane in history... that how big she was.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Mississippi, when did you become a girl?
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Interestingly (or maybe not so much), no one has mentioned the possibility of the storm getting shredded on the mountains in the Caribe.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Ah come on! Everyone here would be suicidal if a monster like that formed in the Atl. I think she was referring to its size.


He* lol.
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583. JLPR2
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Typhoons can look like hurricanes. They're both tropical cyclones.

Typhoon Tip, 1979


Ah come on! Everyone here would be suicidal if a monster like that formed in the Atl. I think he* was referring to its size.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Typhoons can look like hurricanes. They're both tropical cyclones.

Typhoon Tip, 1979


Lol. Yes, I am aware that they are both tropical cyclones. I meant that the appearance is more typical of an Atlantic system than a Western Pacific system. Tip is the perfect example of what Western Pacific storms look like. They are massive and very monsoonal in nature. Atlantic storms are typically smaller and form from tropical waves.
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ADT says TD 5 is in a strengthening trend.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2012 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 12:26:55 N Lon : 50:05:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1013.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 2.7

Center Temp : -50.6C Cloud Region Temp : -41.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.2 degrees
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If I were a model...
I wouldn't be orange....
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Hope this doesn't hook right in to Tampa just before the RNC. One one hand I'd like to see them scatter like bugs on the other hand south Tampa was barely able to handle ts debby
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Quoting scott39:
Ernesto will find the weakness in the Central/N Gulf Coast.


What makes you confident? I don't get it...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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