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Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Electric Night (Wyldman)
Electric Night
Another Hot Sunset 2 (Nikongranny)
Another Hot Sunset 2

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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EP, 05, 2012070900, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1078W, 55, 997, TS,

I think she's a little bit stronger.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T-numbers have increased for Daniel.

09/0000 UTC 15.2N 125.7W T5.0/5.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

Remains the same for Emilia.

09/0000 UTC 11.4N 107.8W T3.0/3.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific


I am surprised they remained for Emilia. I would expect 3/5/3.5.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1455. barbamz
Quoting Patrap:
www.solarham.net

LASCO


Great minds, Pat, .... lol. Look to post 1450.
Have a nice evening together. I'm in bed.
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Big brother and big little sister.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
T-numbers have increased for Daniel.

09/0000 UTC 15.2N 125.7W T5.0/5.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

Remains the same for Emilia.

09/0000 UTC 11.4N 107.8W T3.0/3.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1452. Patrap
www.solarham.net

LASCO
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Here's my blog for the evening... Enjoy.

Daniel Spinning Down; Emilia Spinning Up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1450. barbamz


If the Atlantic is boring, look up to the sky. Here comes the sun.

2012-07-08 20:52 UTC Continued R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Activity...

Region 1515 produced another impulsive, R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout at 1632 UTC (12:32 PM EDT) on July 8. Solar radiation storm levels increased in response to this event but they still remain below the S1 (Minor) event threshold at this time. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of CMEs observed last week make their way past Earth. Region 1515 is approaching the limb, but Region 1520 has just made its way onto the visible disk. Both of these regions have the potential for further activity, so stay tuned for updates.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

http://spaceweather.com/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

One thing we did learn this season so far is how to accurately predict a derecho.

And now there is a FOURTH entity in EPAC.
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1448. LargoFl
..looks like they are also watching what the gfs is looking at..off the coast of africa
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well. Katrina, Wilma, Ike, Ivan etc... are storms that people always remember. Emilia really reminds me of my favorite Rick! I've been tracking storms since 2006.
So, I feel like you don't like it.
Tell me if I upset you!


big smile!
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Heavy rainfall/ wet microburst threat over southern Il and Kentucky.Hopefully this should positively impact the drought there.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...FAR SRN IL/SERN MO/SWRN WV/NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 082308Z - 090215Z

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS EXISTS WITHIN AND
WEST OF WW/S 481/482...BUT PRIMARY CONCERN SHOULD REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...LARGE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL VERY SLOWLY PROPAGATE SWD WITH
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW STRETCHING ACROSS FAR SRN IL/KY INTO
EXTREME SRN WV. WEAK W/SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW SAMPLED IN LVX/JKL VWP
DATA SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED REGENERATION OF CELLS ATOP THE OUTFLOW
AMIDST AN AMBIENT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
95-100 F AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F. THESE SLOW-MOVING MASSES OF
TSTMS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 1.75 IN.

..GRAMS.. 07/08/2012


ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...P AH...LSX...

LAT...LON 38388270 37978173 37438170 36778416 36188622 37259016
38299017 37958801 37568584 38468384 38628331 38388270
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Still holding strong.

EP, 04, 2012070900, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1257W, 90, 970, HU
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1444. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Remember, it's July... Atlantic is almost ALWAYS quiet on this month. That's why 4 tropical storms before July was so surprising... it's very rare.
..way back in march i think it was, the NWS said back then, most storms this season, would start close to the USA, not from africa, and sure enough, all the atlantic storms started close to home, we shall see what happens once august gets here
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1443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1442. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
Cape Surfaces/lifted Index-According to the GFS, a lot of unsettled weather associated with the frontal boundary that is set to park across the south for a while..





Lifted Index


gee thats why starting wens rain chances go way up for days and days,real glad i dont live near any rivers
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Daniel knows persistence is key


Emilia looks close to a hurricane

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
Emilia is looking good.

Mooooo.

KOTG yeah I really don't want to see that again.We need another summer like 2009.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1439. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting washingtonian115:
I-is that what I think it is for tomorrows forecast temp?.Is that a 83 degree reading with low humidity?.OMG.I'm so happy!!.We needed this.


it is cooler and drier behind the front

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Sunday 8 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.96 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 72.1°F
Dewpoint: 54.7°F
Humidity: 54 %
Wind: N 14 mph


by end of week late thur early friday the heat will be on the way back
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1438. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all... Looks like Tampa Bay area is getting all the exciting wx nowadays....


Ya'll stay safe out there.
Thanks, for us, this is an unusual season so far,in northern florida the rivers are still overflowing, up there they dont need any more rain and it looks like they and we here will be getting more and more this coming week
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Emilia is looking good.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm kinda glad we have Daniel and Emilia right now... imagine if BOTH basins were as quiet as the ATL right now....
zzzzzzzzz.......


One thing we did learn this season so far is how to accurately predict a derecho.
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1435. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
R.I.FLAG FLAG
05E/TS/E/CX
MARK
11.13N/107.1W
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
NHC at 8 p.m.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N22W TO 12N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AROUND THE WAVE INDICATING ITS PRESENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:


So what? People bring back the old storms all the time...
I think aspectre was kinda hoping for the story behind the fascination... We mostly have one.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Daniel is one tenacious hurricane.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Emilia is a fat cow lol.Been eating to many enchiladas eh their Emilia?.Looks like Daniel is getting in shape for the ladies.
LOL
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Is shear stays that low in the gulf with those hot sst then watch out for some monsters..that's all I gotta say about that...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Evening Baha, we had "stealth" rain today. It was heavy rain, but when you looked at the satellite photos, you hardly saw any clouds....
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I-is that what I think it is for tomorrows forecast temp?.Is that a 83 degree reading with low humidity?.OMG.I'm so happy!!.We needed this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
the R storm and W storm where nic storms back in 2005 and both at cat 5
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm kinda glad we have Daniel and Emilia right now... imagine if BOTH basins were as quiet as the ATL right now....
zzzzzzzzz.......



Now that would be a nightmare.
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1425. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Emilia is a fat cow lol.Been eating to many enchiladas eh their Emilia?.Looks like Daniel is getting in shape for the ladies.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm kinda glad we have Daniel and Emilia right now... imagine if BOTH basins were as quiet as the ATL right now....
zzzzzzzzz.......

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, trHUrrIXC5MMX, what's your hangup with HurricaneRick? It's long dead. And that's all you post about.


So what? People bring back the old storms all the time...
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Too bad they can't retire names for being extraordinarily beautiful. Maybe because most of the storms can be beautiful in different aspects-no matter who you are.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Gotta admit, Rick was a beautiful storm...





sure was
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Gotta admit, Rick was a beautiful storm...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, trHUrrIXC5MMX, what's your hangup with HurricaneRick? It's long dead. And that's all you post about.



so what HurricaneRick was a big boy with 180mph winds and boy did he look nic
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Evening all... Looks like Tampa Bay area is getting all the exciting wx nowadays....


Ya'll stay safe out there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1416. ncstorm
Cape Surfaces/lifted Index-According to the GFS, a lot of unsettled weather associated with the frontal boundary that is set to park across the south for a while..





Lifted Index


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Quoting aspectre:
Okay, trHUrrIXC5MMX, what's your hangup with HurricaneRick? It's long dead. And that's all you post about.


well. Katrina, Wilma, Ike, Ivan etc... are storms that people always remember. Emilia really reminds me of my favorite Rick! I've been tracking storms since 2006.
So, I feel like you don't like it.
Tell me if I upset you!


big smile!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Okay, trHUrrIXC5MMX, what's your hangup with HurricaneRick? It's long dead. And that's all you post about.
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Quoting aspectre:
1392 redwagon: I sense the flanking blob has a better.. conduit.. to the energy rotating below and very well may challenge Emilia for the dominant center. It might lose, but I bet it grabs a good bit of Emilia's energy.

My thought is that the following blob is sapping a lot of energy out of Emilia that might otherwise have been devoted to Emilia's intensification.
Unfortunately, Emilia's east-side energy is in direct opposition to the blob's westside energy: both weakening the blob and driving the it northward/shoreward.
Does keep Emilia from heading more northward though. Which might pay off in the future as a longer run in hurricane-supporting warm waters.

I just feel like the flanking blob has access to an overall bigger rotation and energy harvest than Emilia is/has opportunized to intensify. Daniel sucked up a lot of the juice in front of her, and the guy behind her is only 1 day old. Her best choice would be, as you say, to move Northward, get out of the mix.
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Daniel is holding his own with a fair share of dry air on almost all sides...imagine how Emilia will do what with the moisture left behind by Daniel. She's tightening up around center with pressure very steadily dropping. However, shear is 20-30 kts on west, north, and northeast sides of storm. West-northwest, then west track for Emilia; I anticipate strengthening to at least a Cat. 3. Winds peak > 120 MPH. May make it even further out than Daniel.




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1411. scott39
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Shear is low...



But so is instability (thanks Debby)...

I look for the instability to continue to climb with time.
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1410. scott39
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Shear is low...



But so is instability (thanks Debby)...

Creepers from Africa will love this!
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1392 redwagon: I sense the flanking blob has a better.. conduit.. to the energy rotating below and very well may challenge Emilia for the dominant center. It might lose, but I bet it grabs a good bit of Emilia's energy.

My thought is that the following blob is sapping a lot of energy out of Emilia that might otherwise have been devoted to Emilia's intensification.
Unfortunately, Emilia's east-side energy is in direct opposition to the blob's westside energy: both weakening the blob and driving the it northward/shoreward.
Does keep Emilia from heading more northward though. Which might pay off in the future as a longer run in warm hurricane-supporting waters.
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New thing I think. That is weird to have two in one day. Especially since they haven't issued one in a while. I wonder if they want a new emphasis on floods and the dangers of them. One way to reach the public is with more colorful boxes, I guess.
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Quoting scott39:
Wind shear in the GOM is crazy low! I wonder if this is a sign of it staying like this more... than not...during the peak of the season?

Shear is low...



But so is instability (thanks Debby)...

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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