Beta on its way to hurricane status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2005

The Hurricane Season of 2005 remains unrelenting. Tropical Storm Beta formed this morning over the warm ocean waters of the southwest Caribbean, just north of Panama. Given the ideal environment for intensification setting up in the southwest Caribbean, this is likely to become Hurricane Beta by tonight, and could grow to major hurricane status before making landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday.

Recent satellite imagery shows a small but rapidly developing system. There is plenty of growing deep convection, good low-level spiral banding, and a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) forming over the center. An eyewall appears to be forming under the CDO, and there is a good chance we'll be talking about Hurricane Beta by this evening. The first hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Friday afternoon.

Beta is stuck in an area of weak steering currents, and is being slowly pulled northwards by the trough of low pressure that swept Wilma over Florida. All the computer models except the Canadian model forecast that this trough will pull northwards and strand Beta in the southwest Caribbean. A weak ridge of high pressure will then build in and force Beta westward, with a landfall expected in northeastern Nicaragua. With water temperatures 29 - 30C, very light wind shear less than 5 knots, the chances of Beta growing to major hurricane status appear good. Intensification beyond Category 3 status is questionable, since Beta is travelling over relatively shallow water with lower heat content than Wilma had to work with. Additionally, Beta's slow forward speed may cause some upwelling of cold water from the depths that will interfere with the intensification process.

Beta's expected landfall in Central America is likely to be a major disaster. Although a small storm, Beta will bring 10-20 inches of rain over the interior mountainous regions of Nicaragua and Honduras, creating a serious flooding situation. The GFDL model indicates that Beta will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and emerge into the Pacific Ocean, where it will re-intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. The projected path takes the storm northwest along the coast of El Salvador, potentially adding to the destruction caused by Hurricane Stan earlier this month, which killed 69. Beta may also continue on to affect Guatemala, which suffered the cruelest blow of any nation this destructive hurricane season; between 1500 and 2000 Guatemalans died in floods and mudslides spawned by Hurricane Stan. The threat to El Salvador and Guatemala remains highly speculative at this point, since we are talking about events a week or more in the future.

There are no provisions for what to do in the event we have to retire Beta's name and replace it on the list of hurricane names. One possibility is that the storm will be dubbed Beta-2005 and the name Beta will be reused. Another possibilty is that Beta will be skipped over next time the Greek alphabet comes into use.


Figure 1. Current sea surface temperatures show the warmest waters in the North Atlantic are in the region just north of Panama where Beta formed.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave spreading heavy rains through the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized today. The amount of deep convection has increased some since yesterday, but remains spread out along a long line. A weak circulation center has developed along the south edge of this line, near 12N 60W (the island of Barbados). Wind shear over the wave has decreased to 5 - 10 knots today, and is forecast to decrease further the next few days as the wave pushes into the central Caribbean. Development of a new tropical depression could occur as early as Saturday with this system. Any storm developing from this wave would likely be a threat to Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, or Mexico later next week.

Another tropical wave, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, remains poorly organized as it moves westward at 15 mph. While a circulation center has developed near 9N 40W, upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development of this system.

Jeff Masters

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99. EllistonVA
12:59 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
still though Gables, bless you for going out there and trying anyway.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
98. cgableshurrycanegal
12:36 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
::G:: Gonna go feed this fat and sassy, self-satisfied broad who did more walking today than in ages... might check back later, might fall asleep.
Would someone please dial up the hurrycane gods and tell them that Beta needs to be dialed back? Central America doesn't need a good soaking and we don't need anymore blowing...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
97. palmettobug53
12:34 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
I agree, Elliston. You have mail on the subject.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 250 Comments: 26755
96. cgableshurrycanegal
12:33 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
the earthquake in the Kashmir area was absolutely horrific. There are undoubtedly villages to which they still haven't gotten and people who might have survived who didn't.
We get stuck on the idea that we must have all these *things*. And, I admit, I am one who enjoys them. I also try to put everything in perspective. Guess that's why I'm out there volunteering to make sure folks who still don't have *stuff* are OK...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
95. cgableshurrycanegal
12:28 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
I agree elliston! Too fat and sassy and self-satisfied.
I was born and raised in Puerto Rico and also lived around Latin America. You LEARNED to prepare for the unexpected. Hell, we even have plenty of toilet paper and paper towels as well as plates and glasses to keep ourselves going and the hand can opener... loads of bleach, not only for laundry but for water (NOT scented) and plenty of canned food, all our prescriptions are ALWAYS refilled in advance. We had gasoline for a good number of days for the generator and vehicles' full tanks...
You can't expect the government to be there from the first moment... yet, many do here...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
94. EllistonVA
12:11 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
P.S. - The Pakistani was obviously a victim of the recent earthquake there where the death toll was in the tens of thousands... People being without power is an inconvenience (unless you're on life support). Tens of thousands of people being killed is a disaster.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
93. caneman
12:05 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
000
WTNT31 KNHC 272341
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA CREEPING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
92. EllistonVA
12:05 AM GMT on October 28, 2005
I think the real problem is that most Americans simply can't fend for themselves. The only real weather disaster we face here in southwest VA is the ice storms in the winter where we occassionally lose power for 3 days and can't get off our mountain until it melts. And yet we have about a months worth of supplies on a shelf in our basement at all times, a generator (always with a full gas can) and a wood stove for heat in the winter.

The other night they showed a man in Pakistan that had carried his injured daughter close to 80 miles over a mountain pass in near freezing temperatures in bare feet to get her to a hospital. He had no food or water with him and he saved her life. There were no roads, just goat paths. In New Orleans they sat for days in the Superdome rather than walking the 100 feet through waist-deep water and out the nicely paved roads to the next town.

Ice storms hit here often with only a few hours notice, the power goes out for a few days and we just cozy up with the wood stove, hook the generator up to the freezer (or put the stuff outside where it's already freezing) and it's nothing more than an inconvenience. Trees fall down and you take the chainsaw to them after things thaw. Provided nothing fell on your house (much the same as in a hurricane) you're good to go. People are given a week's notice that a hurricane is coming and they can't even go to Walmart to get a few bottles of water and non perishable food that they ought to have in a closet somewhere at all times already when you live in a hurricane zone.

*sigh* Just been needing to get that off my chest for a few days.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
91. EllistonVA
11:53 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
txcanewatcher -- I've found death toll numbers for Emily from 14 (Wikipedia) to 64 (some other website that I can't remember). Emily did significant damage to the island of Grenada, which had already been hard hit by Ivan. It also did millions of damage in Mexico. Certainly not as big as Katrina or Rita, or Wilma (in terms of $$$) but for a poor country like Grenada it was pretty bad.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
90. cgableshurrycanegal
11:43 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Hi All, checking in to see what's up. Thought I'd do a bit of civic duty today (thinking a couple of hours............WRONG!!!!!) and wound up spending the day doing a door-to-door making sure residents are OK. For the most part, yes, altho' we did convince one 91 yr old emphysema patient low on O2 to check into managed hospital stay early rather than as stressful emergency. His insurance supplied O2 provider doesn't have after-hour ph or beeper... bad sign. I'm so dumb I agreed to 8 more hours tomorrow... We got power last night so I keep telling folks to have hope.
I'm damned if I understand how people who had SO MUCH warning and time to prepare have found themselves in the predicament of not having water (altho' in Dade County it was ALWAYS safe to drink...) or ice or gasoline... The NHC and NWS and gov't pounds it into our heads to prepare for a minimum of 72 hrs on our own... My own household of 4 w/3 dogs could have gone at least a week. Not happy, but survivable.
Lost roof tiles on the ridge line, pool was a pain to clean out, and some tree damage. My wonderful Royal Poinciana, possibly the oldest in the city survived remarkably well as we are ALWAYS nattering at public works to keep it properly trimmed. (It's on the public right-of-way and they won't allow US to touch it, $500 fine... go figure...)
Don't EVEN getme started on where responsibilty lies on which level of government messed up. I know first-hand, with a front and center seat that municipal, county and state entities had all their ducks in a row. We couldn't have been more prepared, except for gas stations not having their own generators for the pumps. FEMA needs to get it's act together. And this from a fan of the acting director...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
89. Txcanewatcher
11:23 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Hello, all. I've been lurking for a while and was just wondering why Emily would be retired. Sure it was strong, but it did not have a large number of people dying. Any thoughts?
88. CrazyC83
11:03 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
My tendency is to continue the gender-setup based on how they would go if they were named in the alphabet, and consider them part of a fraternity or sorority.

This season: Vince (M) - Wilma (F) - Alpha (M) - Beta (F) - Gamma (M) - Delta (F) - etc.

Beta could be short for a Beta Beta Beta tropical sorority...

BTW, if a Greek letter is retired, that name is skipped over if they ever get that far down again. For example, should Beta be retired and we get back this far next year, it would go from Alpha straight to Gamma (or the next available name).

As of now, I think 6 names will be retired: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
87. ringthepeg
10:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
BibBabu, I think the Greek alphabet doesn't differentiate between male & female gender.

How about this from several baby names websites:
Beta

dedicated to god
Origin: Czech
Gender: Girl
*************
Beta in Hebrew = Beth
*************
Greek
Gender: Girl
Origin: Greek

Bobby(why not?)
85. lobcarl
10:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
The sun came out for the fourth time this month. Still better than hurricanes and tornadoes. Wish it would calm down so I can catch a few bugs (lobsters).
84. OGal
9:55 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Hi all, check out the comments on the full story of Beta on Accuweather.com. Seems like there may be alot of questions in the forecast. What do you think Dr. Jeff. What about the trough(sp) of low pressure coming across the US??
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
83. dcw
9:50 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
The term is neuter. I'm not kidding.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
82. FLCrackerGirl
9:41 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
New Features for WunderBlogs
See WunderYakuza
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 601
81. BigBabu
9:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
GAtor, sounds right to me. When is this chilly weather gonna let up here in Fl?
80. GainesvilleGator
9:36 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
BibBabu, I think the Greek alphabet doesn't differentiate between male & female gender. I guess the term is "unisex". Alpha is just an "it" and not a he or she.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 750
79. BigBabu
9:33 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Why do I have a bad feeling Florida will be hit by another Hurricane before this season is over? Beta is moving north, doing its best Wilma impersonation. Models show a lot of action over the next week.

This chilly weather here in Florida may be a trick.

Babu from Tampa

PS: Is Beta a he or a she?
78. snowboy
9:24 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
5 pm NHC discussion has her up to 95 kts in 72 hours...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2556
77. weatherguru
9:08 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
They said the shear was going to weaken Wilma, but did it do? It only strengthened into a cat 3 storm right before landfall. I live In Ft Myers about 35 miles north of landfall.
76. weatherboyfsu
9:08 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Just thought you guys would like to look at this.........


http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL262005_perf.htmlLink
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
75. BigJohnTheHustler
9:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Riviera Beach, checkin in! We are back, power, cable, and phones!!! IT was the CRAZIEST THING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN when the back half of the storm came...the calm of the eye IS VERY misleading to the violence of the Backside eyewall!! Holy Cow... I have some awesome video that I would love to post with music actually in the background of the video and not dubber over, which seems to have been heard by Wilma because as the music got more intense so did she!

Simply Incredible!!
74. pt100
9:04 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Hi, PT here,
this site will interest you all, its all
21 Named Storms From the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
in one movie
Link

It's great!
73. weatherdude65
8:55 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
I agree with you snowboy...the temps here in central Fl are going to rebound to the low 80's by the end of the weekend
72. weatherdude65
8:53 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
I was just reading the 5:00 discussion on Beta, and I can't help but find it funny that the NHC uses the word "should" twice in their discussion. Just like Wilma, right now they don't have a clue
71. snowboy
8:52 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Excerpt from 5 pm advisory:
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

RWD, cool water temps and shear were supposed to keep Wilma down... As for the cool dry air, things can change in a few days time esp. if Beta turns big. Right now she's 997 mb - predictions anyone on how low she goes?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2556
70. EllistonVA
8:50 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
I think we should convince it that there's a nice little uninhabited island in the middle of the Atlantic that is just the most happening place to be right now.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
69. dcw
8:25 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
:D Ellison.

She's hot stuff, she moved earlier this morning too :)
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
68. rwdobson
8:09 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
what will stop beta from pushing north? lots of things. for one, look how far dry cool air is intruding down into the southern US and gulf on the water vapor loop. that will keep beta at bay. plus the water temps are cool in the gulf and the wind shear is high, so if the storm somehow did make it further north, it would have a real hard time holding together.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1653
67. butterflymcb
7:55 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Elliston...lol! as long as she doesn't put in any bids for employment in the US...especially MS or LA or FL or TX...which pretty much cuts us all out down here.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
66. coastie24
7:43 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Re-located eastward - more time to spend over the water and gain strength. This could be another Wilma with nobody knowing initially where it will go. It could also absorb that blob south of Hispanol/Haiti and we could name it "BAMMA". What a concept!!!! LOL.
65. butterflymcb
7:36 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
they will retire Vince due to uniqueness? have they done that before? :) that would be interesting. :)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
64. Pensacola21
7:35 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
LOL Elliston!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
63. EllistonVA
7:20 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
re-located? did it get a better job offer?
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
62. snowboy
7:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
2 pm NHC discussion has her positioned further east and heading north. Excerpts:

TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...CORRECT PRESSURE IN REPEAT SECTION...

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2556
61. EllistonVA
7:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
I wouldn't bet on anything at all this season. You'd think that after the third storm blew up overnight and went clean through the steering currents that they'd take that into account. Still though, until she's a cat 4 or so she can't make her own path. With the way this season is going though, I wouldn't be surprised to see her a cat 4 by morning just to spite the forecasters.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
60. snowboy
6:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
those ridges don't always build in as expected, so as said I wouldn't bet the farm on the expected CA landfall and dissipation. NHC already has her heading further north (and a day longer) than at 11 pm last night.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2556
58. EllistonVA
6:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
snowboy - she won't push herself, something has to give her the shove and right now there's nothing to steer her anyway so she's just sittin' and spinnin'. Eventually they think a ridge will build that will make her skirt along to the west.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
57. Skyepony (Mod)
6:45 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
the ukmet has got beta goin n too, now. As well as eating a blob
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 397 Comments: 43379
56. EllistonVA
6:44 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
work, work, work...if it wasn't for all of this work I could get some serious blogging done!
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
55. primez
6:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
Just in case you guys haven't noticed this yet, the past two hurricane season have had not only subtropical storms, but also tropical storm occur in the month of December! At the rate this season is going, it could be a possibility!

2003
Tropical Storm Odette: 12/04 - 12/07
Tropical Storm Peter: 12/09 - 12/11

2004:
Tropical Storm Otto: 11/30 - 12/02
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
54. stormydee
6:36 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
snowboy, discussion said a ridge is gonna build in and push her west
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
53. Pensacola21
6:27 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
I know what you mean Dee - I was just about to ask where you were...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
52. snowboy
6:27 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
In this crazy season I would not bet the farm on Beta heading westward into Nicaragua - what's to stop her from pushing further north?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2556
51. stormydee
6:20 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
dcw - I don't think they will retire Vince, they retire names based on deaths and costs.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
50. JQB45
6:12 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
More thoughts.

As a tropical system gets closer to land and it becomes possible with reasonable certainty to pin point an area likely to be hit directly.

These areas should not only get a warning but the area should get a warning indicator number predicting the strength of the combined indicates I mentioned in the previous post.

For instance. Ivan hit well west of Pensacola, FL last year but snaped trees and did moderate damage to Tallahassee, Fl nearly 320 miles away.

Not to mention the increasing severity of damage the system did to Panama City, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Milton, Navarre Beach, and Pensacola.

-Jeff
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
49. stormydee
5:45 PM GMT on October 27, 2005
ah, back, had to reboot then got super busy...I wish this busy-ness would spread evenly throughout the week instead of Mondays and Thursdays kill me while the rest of the week is usually slow.
Hello :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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