Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 304 - 254

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

304. MZT
Looks like a big sloppy extra-tropical system already. I don't think it's going to organize tonight. Just dump lots of rain on the SE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
The ULL wasn't going to be what steered Debby. As it backed away it might have helped ventilate the system, but it wasn't going to pull it.


Correct.......My bad..... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Man, you are worse than Thomas!!! lol


I don't know Thomas, but he's probably as confused as i am. Forecast track has shifted so much. I think Debby is listening, and every time someone thinks they know where she's going, Ol Deb says "Phsych suckas I'm going this way"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
We've been getting some rain from these tropical systems as they pass our area... so ya'll have totally dried out from the constant rains earlier in the year?



Yep,in fact,San Juan has only 0.3 on the whole month after being well above normal in the normally dry months of March and April.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
300. Joe21
I still think that the track would be much more east possibly making landfall just or above Tampa.Because there are some models that take it Southeast and shoot back out.So it could be hurricane Debby if it takes my theory.

Not a official Forecast!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still leading the way...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here in PR we need rain as June has been dry.Bring it on.
We've been getting some rain from these tropical systems as they pass our area... so ya'll have totally dried out from the constant rains earlier in the year?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but it actually did in a way push Debby north far enough to where it would not catch the ridge
That is true, if it did have any effect on Debby's track, it helped push it in the opposite direction. Shear from the ULL kept convection to the East and caused the LLC to continue to reform closer to the convection which has put it further NE than most models expected at this point.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There is still plenty of moisture in the SE Gulf of Mexico....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
2005 is about to catch us soon hahaha

Not until July 5th.
and we may get Ernesto by July 10th though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


you know how tied up the magnetic field is and there is nothing? wow!... alright ill be on later as we get hh data so like 7 my time

Are the HHs going out tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z running now

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:


She looks better than earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are the HH taking off at 7 or arriving at 7?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storms were in full train echo in Eastern Palm Beach county late morning early afternoon . It got a little violent late morning here . Some funnel clouds reported in this area about that time . Looks like another round sometime late tonight / early morning as another band approaches the keys .
Love the rain !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Key West about to get Hammered:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I still don't believe it. When it makes landfall then I'll believe where it's going.


Man, you are worse than Thomas!!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
The ULL wasn't going to be what steered Debby. As it backed away it might have helped ventilate the system, but it wasn't going to pull it.


but it actually did in a way push Debby north far enough to where it would not catch the ridge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting dark here in bradenton. Another intense line of storms coming ashore. Relentless, at least this is not a hurricane...yet. To think we may be getting this til Thursday. Almost as bad IMO (four days of relentless rain with wind and sporadic tornadoes will cause trees to fall and other damage.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
guys, we still june 24th and you are thinking in Ernesto, oh my god at this point this season will be worst than 2005?
I don't think so, remember ENSO is in neutral condition, and exist the posibility of 50% that EL NINO develops, so take it easy.




It all comes down to perspective. Yes we have had a lot of named storms early but 2005 had some very powerful and high ACE storms that caused massive devastation. We could have a lot of named storms but a very low ACE in comparison to 2005. Also the EL NINO is no guarantee to occur and 2005 was a neutral season in of itself. There are never any guarantees either way. Always keep your eye out for potential storms. ALWAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


some weak waves


Here in PR we need rain as June has been dry.Bring it on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


they do now


I still don't believe it. When it makes landfall then I'll believe where it's going. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That ULL near Texas is finally retro-grading towards the SW but not taking Debby with it....Look's like she missed that ride.

Link
The ULL wasn't going to be what steered Debby. As it backed away it might have helped ventilate the system, but it wasn't going to pull it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
If you're looking for a good visible satellite loop, here's the best one


NASA Interactive Satellite Viewer


or this one:RAP UCAR Satellite Page

loads faster too!!! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Sol has gone Really Quiet suddenly during Cycle 24



you know how tied up the magnetic field is and there is nothing? wow!... alright ill be on later as we get hh data so like 7 my time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like the naked Debby is trying to put some clothes on. All tho its a light T-shirt right now for the day time she might try to put a coat on for the evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
276. j2008
Quoting Hurricanes101:


2005 was also a neutral season, not saying we would see that - unlikely
and if I remember right 2005 was expected to be an El Nino year too, really we have no idea what will happen. Its not out of the realm of possibility that we could remain in Neutral for longer than expected (ie to the middle of the season).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That ULL near Texas is finally retro-grading towards the SW but not taking Debby with it....Look's like she missed that ride.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you're looking for a good visible satellite loop, here's the best one


NASA Interactive Satellite Viewer
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Debby Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

Zoom is active
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I still think nobody has a clue where it's going. Not the mets, models, or experts


they do now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005 is about to catch us soon hahaha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yes its like a train, one cell after another,non stop since 3 this morning or even earlier than that


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I still think nobody has a clue where it's going. Not the mets, models, or experts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


some weak waves
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
guys, we still june 24th and you are thinking in Ernesto, oh my god at this point this season will be worst than 2005?
I don't think so, remember ENSO is in neutral condition, and exist the posibility of 50% that EL NINO develops, so take it easy.




2005 was also a neutral season, not saying we would see that - unlikely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
265. VR46L
Quoting spathy:

Last I checked it was 2.71"
And when I pulled a weed from the lawn the soil was still dry as dust.
So the lawn just got a bubble bath.
Hoping for a little more rain to wash that dry right outa my lawn.


You will probally be as sick of the rain by the end of the week as I always am. Was kinda concerned I heard there was some nadars round by your area over the weekend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherb0y:
I acknowledge that the current focus is on tropical storm Debby, but do any of the computer models show any other potential storms after Debby is out of the picture? Links to computer models would be greatly appreciated!


not really

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys, we still june 24th and you are thinking in Ernesto, oh my god at this point this season will be worst than 2005?
I don't think so, remember ENSO is in neutral condition, and exist the posibility of 50% that EL NINO develops, so take it easy.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nothing to see but moisture cutoff:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I acknowledge that the current focus is on tropical storm Debby, but do any of the computer models show any other potential storms after Debby is out of the picture? Links to computer models would be greatly appreciated!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know.


exactly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
541 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL AS DEBBY LINGERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL
BRING THE POT ENTAIL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY...FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS WITHIN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT ANYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4N...LONGITUDE 85.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL...OR ABOUT 230 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE FL. STORM MOTION WAS NE OR
40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH WILL BRING THE
RISKS OF FLOODING RAINFALL AND HIGH RIVER RISES.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR UNINFORMED
OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 12 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
If you look on the water vapor imagery you'll notice that some dry air is being sucked southeast over Louisiana in association with Debby's circulation.
Upper levels SE of Debby are drying out for the time being as a result of the upper convergence from the ULL and the ridge over the US. Upper convergence shows up nicely on the CIMSS product.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

whats a turth?

I don't know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i dont drink coffee.
or any caffeine


swimmerprobs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 304 - 254

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice