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Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I took this at Indian Rocks Beach earlier today:




Great picture -- what many people probably don't know is that area is usually very calm, gets very little in the way of waves.
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1602. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Debby needs to get working tonight with DMAX, or else it could very well weaken to a TD if this trend continues. It has pretty much lost all thunderstorm activity.


You may want to look at the CoC and the Red Bay Radar
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


I said that too! I stated they wouldn't drop the winds because of the pressure


I understand this reasoning, though. Lower pressure means that the LLC is defined and has the capability of restrengthening. Better safe than sorry. They also assume that the dry air will moisten up.

Honestly, I don't think she's going to do much more. I think her legacy has already been left in Central Florida. And is still causing problems there.

Next....haha.
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Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:
Man...tomorrow is MONDAY....nobody realizes how much I hate Mondays...


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Debby needs to get working tonight with DMAX, or else it could very well weaken to a TD if this trend continues. It has pretty much lost all thunderstorm activity.
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1598. scott39
Per Tropical Atlantic for the last 6 hour average.....Debbie is moving due W at 1mph.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't get too excited over it. ;)

What happened to yours?
LOL.

My blog? Too much work involved. I rather leave it up to the people that enjoy writing blogs about the tropics hahaa.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually we both live in Louisiana, so it's actually only 10:18 here. Which makes it even worse.
Well damn.
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Quoting weatherh98:


What time do you wake up lol

Swim is at 6 am

You get up at 5AM every morning to go to some meeting to swim back and forth in a pool?

Can't you do that with your friends in your own at let's say...noon?
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1595. Patrap
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pressure still looks to be ~991 millibars.


.....it ain't fillin up with air.....
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1593. dewfree
Im sorry for her and her family.May she be with God !
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually we both live in Louisiana, so it's actually only 10:18 here. Which makes it even worse.


What time do you wake up lol

Swim is at 6 am
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1591. RevInFL
Quoting Jedkins01:


Winterhaven tornado, Polk county Florida...







There is a signature of a tornado on the ground moving north from Osceola and Orange into Titusville in about 34mins. Doesn't matter what Debby is gonna do, right now she is leaving a path of nastiness.
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It appears banding near the center is getting better.
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Several people on here have made a good point about Debby today -- most of the state of Florida has gotten significant weather from the storm just staying still. No matter where it goes, it has created more weather than many or almost all Tropical Storms that just blow through.

Sad to hear about Pass a grille & the damage on Indian rocks --- grew up in that area.
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Pressure still looks to be ~991 millibars.
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1587. Patrap
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Quoting dewfree:
it appears at the ir sat that debby has made or is making landfall ???? question where ???


No it isn't even close, four more days over water
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Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone cares to hear my thoughts, I'm doing a blog on Debby now. So, stick around?


Will be watching for it!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
11:15 is late now? I stayed up for the 5a.m advisory yesterday for the hell of it and down to do a repeat tonight again lolol.

I'll read your blog Kori. Pinky promise. ;)


Actually we both live in Louisiana, so it's actually only 10:18 here. Which makes it even worse.
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1583. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:05Z
Date: June 25, 2012

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 30


03:08:00Z 28.583N 85.583W 843.2 mb

(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,439 meters
(~ 4,721 feet) 993.8 mb
(~ 29.35 inHg) - From 127° at 17 knots
(From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph) 19.0°C
(~ 66.2°F) 17.2°C
(~ 63.0°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 2 knots*
(~ 2.3 mph*) 4 mm/hr*
(~ 0.16 in/hr*) 2.0 knots* (~ 2.3 mph*)
11.8%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 02:58:30Z (first observation), the observation was 100 miles (160 km) to the SSE (159°) from Panama City, FL, USA.

At 03:08:00Z (last observation), the observation was 110 miles (177 km) to the S (177°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
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1581. scott39
Debbie's COC is going to moisten up like a wet wipe in about 48 hours. She has swallowed some major dry air.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You're what, 14? Utilize that energy you have while you still have it.


I wake up at 515 every morning the fact that I'm up this late is a miracle
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
11:15 is late now? I stayed up for the 5a.m advisory yesterday for the hell of it and down to do a repeat tonight again lolol.

I'll read your blog Kori. Pinky promise. ;)

Don't get too excited over it. ;)

What happened to yours?
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Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone cares to hear my thoughts, I'm doing a blog on Debby now. So, stick around?

Well...I am wondering if the Kori model has joined the GFS....so I'll wait....
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Winterhaven tornado, Polk county Florida...





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1576. dewfree
The expansive, stalled Tropical Storm Debby lashed Florida on Sunday, spawning apparent tornadoes in the central part of the state that killed one woman, a county spokeswoman said.

Gloria Rybinski, emergency operations spokeswoman for Highland County, said two twisters destroyed four homes in the southern end of the county and damaged others.

The woman was found dead in a home in Venus, located in the middle of the state roughly between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota, Rybinski said. In addition, a child in one of the affected homes was injured and transported to a hospital for treatment.

Packing 60 mph winds, Debby's eye was still 115 miles south-southwest of Apalachiocola, Florida (and 195 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana) according to the National Hurricane Center's 7 p.m. (8 p.m. ET) Sunday update.

Even so, it's already made a big impact -- and is likely to cause damage, flooding and worse for days to come. In fact, the heart of the storm was churning but not moving in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday evening, and forecasters still don't know where it will end up.

"Little movement is expected during the next couple of days, but this forecast remains uncertain due to weak steering currents," the Miami-based center said. "Some gradual strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours."
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I took this at Indian Rocks Beach earlier today:

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1574. RevInFL
Just had a wicked squall come through North Titusville. The wind and rain was very intense. Tornado warning still active. Take this stuff seriously.We already have roads flooding.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You're what, 14? Utilize that energy you have while you still have it.
11:15 is late now? I stayed up for the 5a.m advisory yesterday for the hell of it and down to do a repeat tonight again lolol.

I'll read your blog Kori. Pinky promise. ;)
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1572. Dsntslp
Quoting weatherh98:


Diurnal
Thank you so much! I looked it up and now I understand. I actually waited for things to slow down in here before asking, lol.

TY TY Truly
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Quoting dewfree:
it appears at the ir sat that debby has made or is making landfall ???? question where ???


Um, no.
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1570. will40
Quoting Dsntslp:
What is the "D" in Dmin and Dmax for, please and thank you.



Density
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1569. icmoore
Quoting Clearwater1:
In one of many GFS runs, it had Debby move across the State, landing just north of Tampa Bay. Since it has this big stall happening, and very little movement for a day or two, I wonder if those GFS model runs will come to pass. Not out of the question. The GFS has been, for the most part, spot on for Debby


No no no don't want that.
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1568. Patrap
Phunny, I always thought it was "Dudley"
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1567. dewfree
it appears at the ir sat that debby has made or is making landfall ???? question where ???
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Quoting weatherh98:
Too late remind me in the morning and I'll read it


You're what, 14? Utilize that energy you have while you still have it.
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1564. GBguy88
Quoting Dsntslp:
What is the "D" in Dmin and Dmax for, please and thank you.


Diurnal?
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Quoting Dsntslp:
What is the "D" in Dmin and Dmax for, please and thank you.


Diurnal
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Snap shot of the Winter Haven Tornado taken earlier today:

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Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone cares to hear my thoughts, I'm doing a blog on Debby now. So, stick around?
Too late remind me in the morning and I'll read it
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1560. Dsntslp
What is the "D" in Dmin and Dmax for, please and thank you.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I can tell the blog is quite fond of Stacy Stewart. I really do like how he writes his discussions in grand detail.

I do have to disagree with the current intensity though, he even said it, the only reason this is 60mph is because of continuity and pressure; not because Recon found anything that would constitute towards such a strength.


I said that too! I stated they wouldn't drop the winds because of the pressure
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Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like shart to me.
Shart? Uhhh...lololol
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1557. Patrap
Look south of PCB and note the Rain Bands organizing near that CoC.

Esp note the "Rounding" and the Interval between them.





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If anyone cares to hear my thoughts, I'm doing a blog on Debby now. So, stick around?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Fizzle for sale.
Ten cents a pail.


Up the ante and just go for a nice high five!

Tonight will be interesting, by mid day tomorrow Debby might be just a slight memory...
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Quoting rxse7en:
Landfall by Friday?! I can walk faster than that. The NHC doesn't expect any strengthening over the next five days?! WEIRDNESS abounds. What will keep her from strengthening for that long? Ridge moving down? ULL moving back over? Icebergs?


Magic.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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