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Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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This one's for Pat. Get da limez.

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1753. Joe21
Quoting Levi32:
So the 0z GFS blocks Debby east of Florida lol. Strangely enough that's not impossible if Debby spends more than 3 days to cross Florida, allowing the ridge to build in, but we'll take Debby one step at a time for now.



So could this mean it gets push back to the east of Florida develops more and then ridge builds and pushes back over Florida then to Texas since the ridge will make it move west?
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1752. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tribucanes:
What are the currents conditions for you Skyepony? Stay safe. Do you think the incoming bands coming onshore again shortly will be tornado producers too?


It's raining, just had a gust to 16mph. Line weakened here. North Brevard, the ones that dodged the tornado, they are getting poured on.
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1751. Patrap
RAMSDIS Floater Viz to Night IR Loop
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
LOL. So the most recent GFS run blocks Debby from exiting out into the Atlantic east of Florida? What would the track look if it does get blocked, back west and into the GOM again? Another stall? LOL. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, I'm just curious.
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1749. Patrap
Debby Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1748. Joe21
Quoting Levi32:
So the 0z GFS blocks Debby east of Florida lol. Strangely enough that's not impossible if Debby spends more than 3 days to cross Florida, allowing the ridge to build in, but we'll take Debby one step at a time for now.


So could this mean is get push east of Florida develop more deeply then with the ridge it gets push back over Florida then head to texas since the ridge will make it move west?
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CMC sticks with its 12z idea of landfall in Panhandle, then turn NE out to sea.
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Well...that 00z GFS certainly was interesting.
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GFS doesn't stall Debbie east of Florida.. it moves across florida and heads NE around the Bermuda-PR ridge
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DEBBY HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED ALL OF THE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN
UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE
INNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
OR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE
HWRF/GFDL REGIONAL MODELS.

Oh well guess my dry air death scenario ain't
gonna play out...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

SCORE!!! GFS is starting to back off the NE solution it has been showing. Albeit...this isn't the same solution as what I have shown on my blog...but I am gaining a bit more confidence in my forecast issued last afternoon.
Actually in the earlier runs the GFS was showing a 998 mb. Tropical Storm making landfall right on top of Tampa Bay. It's not that far-fetched since it still shows the trough digging and since the steering currents have basically collapsed it really can go any direction, it just depends which steering mechanism makes it move first. Kind of like Chess.
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Quoting 7544:


you know i bet the folks at the nhc are watching this run and saying you got to be kidding me and scratching thire heads as draws drop a new cone again lol but how can we not count on the gfs it was the only right model for debby so far stay tuned


Almost every NHC forecast lately is "low confidence"
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1740. Grothar
It looks like they are still looking for development in the Bay of Campeche. Also a feature in the far east Atlantic. And I am leaving for Europe again on Thursday. I may miss all the fun.




Maybe this could be the culprit.

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1739. Drakoen
Debby might be around for a while according to the GFS 00z. It has it doing a cyclonic loop in the GOM before making landfall on the west coast of Florida. Not out of the realm of possibilities given the weak steering currents.
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What are the currents conditions for you Skyepony? Stay safe. Do you think the incoming bands coming onshore again shortly will be tornado producers too?
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Quoting flsky:
Damage reports in ECF:
Link
Oh I wouldn't want to be travelling down Yeehaw Junction at this point in the night, that area is pitch black!
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1736. Patrap
<
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1735. 7544
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

SCORE!!! GFS is starting to back off the NE solution it has been showing. Albeit...this isn't the same solution as what I have shown on my blog...but I am gaining a bit more confidence in my forecast issued last afternoon.


you know i bet the folks at the nhc are watching this run and saying you got to be kidding me and scratching thire heads as jaws opps drop a new cone again lol but how can we not count on the gfs it was the only right model for debby so far stay tuned
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I'm not ruling anything out at this point, but I

remember the model runs from Friday showed a split

of the low into two parts..one going over Fla to the NE and one remaining in the Gulf...so I was watching for a total decoupling with a naked swirl left in
the Gulf..guess I will keep watching..lol
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I was looking at the radar and to the east of the large rainband I saw a tornadic supercell over water with a "debris ball" man good thing it stayed off shore it was probably a pretty big waterspout.
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Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the blob wants to make a run and catch up with Debby.
What affects would that have on Debbie?
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boy this debby screams for a back from the grave Nash Roberts to figure out what this storm is gonna do lol
in central fl here and not liking the idea of this sitting around for several days...please move...anywhere! lol
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1730. dewfree
dont they have very large fuses at sub stations to protect againt these kind of things occuring . and doesnt it take approximately 1.5 to 2 hours to replace one of those fuses ?


one thing for sure if a transformer goes it will sound like a canon
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1729. flsky
Damage reports in ECF:
Link
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Quoting 7544:


nope thats it my hunch was right from early this afternioon on this sse turn latter on
Not questioning the GFS since it has been right up to this point, but it is showing more rain for the Tampa Bay area which at this point will just add insult to injury. Time to go work on the Ark.
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1726. icmoore
Quoting Levi32:
So the 0z GFS blocks Debby east of Florida lol. Strangely enough that's not impossible if Debby spends more than 3 days to cross Florida, allowing the ridge to build in, but we'll take Debby one step at a time for now.



Send floats.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I have a question for anyone on here who has a possible explanation. I have seen and heard 6 separate transformers explode tonight, and my question is...why? The winds were a bit gusty (20-30 mph, maybe gusts to 35) but nothing even close to high enough where I would expect it to cause power outages. I have noticed this with other tropical cyclones as well, such as Fay in 2008, during which I saw a few transformers go, with winds a bit gusty but not THAT gusty at all. Is there some specific characteristic of the wind from tropical cyclones that makes a transformer failure more likely than similar wind speeds from cold fronts or thunderstorms?


its not the wind, its more things getting blown into them. or lighting, or load on the system. I got a friend at FPL thats been explaining a bit of this to me, but its more then the wind for sure.
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Well, I am off to bed to dream that Debby dissipates before morning. My Gran always said when you dream, dream big. *S*
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1723. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like the blob wants to make a run and catch up with Debby.
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Quoting Levi32:
So the 0z GFS blocks Debby east of Florida lol. Strangely enough that's not impossible if Debby spends more than 3 days to cross Florida, allowing the ridge to build in, but we'll take Debby one step at a time for now.


Will conditions be favorable for strengthening on the other side of Florida?
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Quoting 7544:
hmm interesting gfs run Link

SCORE!!! GFS is starting to back off the NE solution it has been showing. Albeit...this isn't the same solution as what I have shown on my blog...but I am gaining a bit more confidence in my forecast issued last afternoon.
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1720. Patrap
Quoting help4u:
why so many comments about debbie being dead by morning?C onditions that unfavorable?


No, jus folks bouncing in without a clue seems..like usual.
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1719. Grothar
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're joking right?


It's possible. That is where I had Debby when I wrote my blog on the 17th.
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1718. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
So the 0z GFS blocks Debby east of Florida lol. Strangely enough that's not impossible if Debby spends more than 3 days to cross Florida, allowing the ridge to build in, but we'll take this one step at a time for now.

If it occurs that is right over a major current. She will be getting new warm water resupplied to her 24/7. Hopefully shear will push all the rain to the East away from Fl.
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Just wondering if she makes it through tonight, especially if the blob off the yucatan doesnt rotate around and remoisten the atmosphere around her.
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1714. 7544
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're joking right?


nope thats it my hunch was right from early this afternioon on this sse turn latter on
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1713. Patrap
Seems to be isolated from any dry air intrusion tonight



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1712. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado with debris ball hit Yeehaw Junction went west of me up the county line. Nice to see it weaken some before Cocoa, Titusville & Mims. Line of lightning & rain is coming now, nice that has faded a little too. High wind here today was 20mph.
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Quoting canehater1:
The ULL is "tounging" dry air into Debbie and hopefully

this will be the "kiss of death"...



I'll toast to that. I think we deserve a break after the immense monotony of the whole thing. Geez. :|
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1710. Levi32
So the 0z GFS blocks Debby east of Florida lol. Strangely enough that's not impossible if Debby spends more than 3 days to cross Florida, allowing the ridge to build in, but we'll take Debby one step at a time for now.

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Quoting 7544:
hmm interesting gfs run Link
You're joking right?
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The ULL is "tounging" dry air into Debbie and hopefully

this will be the "kiss of death"...

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1707. emguy
Probably reasonable to expect a somewhat robust DMAX tonight. Debby's primary inflow jet on the southeat/eastern flank has made its connection with the moisture over the southern gulf now. This evolution has been key to thunderstom development throughout her lifecycle.
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Quoting dewfree:
broad area rather then localized effects


Yes sir.
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Thunderstorms are redeveloping in the Gulf and looks like it will be training over the same areas as earlier today. Some spots in Pinellas County have already received a foot of rain.

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Quoting Patrap:
What A Lot of folks think is a Transformer Blowing is just two of the Wires on the 3 High Line touch.

The 2 Hots are blown together and arc when that happens making a Bright Green/Blue Flash and a report as well sometimes.

The Higher Gusts cause this,as like I said, One Wire is Neutral, and 2 Hot, with the Shield Wire Above all 3.



I'm not sure if you're talking about the 240/480 volt output coming out of transformer or the bare distribution lines separated from the pole by insulators which are usually 10,000 to 20,000 volts. With voltage that high tree branches rubbing against the lines causing arcing into the branches burning them with bright high amperage arcs from the power line. That is often confused with transformers blowing. Or a phase to phase arc, usually involves massive amounts of current leading to a large explosion where the arc occurs..
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