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Significant change in forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby

By: Angela Fritz , 9:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Debby remains a tropical storm at 5pm EDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and continues to move northeast at 3 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph) extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are present or close to being present along the northeast Gulf coast. The biggest change in the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center is the forecast track—see below for discussion on that. Most of the buoys in the northern Gulf are experiencing tropical storm strength winds. Weather stations in Florida have been recording anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of rain today, and tornado watches have been posted this afternoon. There are nine tornado reports in southern Florida thus far today, one of which caused at least one fatality in Lake Placid. Tornado warnings will likely continue through the night. The National Hurricane Center describes Debby as "sprawling" this afternoon, with most of the thunderstorm activity well-removed from the center of the system. Debby's rainfall extends from Pensacola, Florida north to almost Macon, Georgia, and south and east to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A hurricane hunter mission flew the storm earlier this afternoon and found no winds to support more than a tropical storm, but flight-level winds were relatively high at almost 90 mph. The next hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for Wind shear remains moderately strong (10-20 knots) to the north and east of the storm, and is not expected to change over the next couple of days. Debby continues to appear large but hindered by shear on satellite this afternoon. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity is relegated to the north and east, and the southwest portion of the storm remains bare, though not as bare as yesterday.


Figure 1. Sunday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift northeast in defiance of what many of our trusted global forecast models have been suggesting over the past two or three days. The National Hurricane Center has responded to this by making a dramatic and warranted shift in their forecast track. This afternoon the center is calling for potential landfall on Thursday, likely somewhere in the Florida panhandle, though the forecast cone extends from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. Models are actually starting to come into somewhat of an agreement now on the forecast track toward Florida. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC are suggesting that Debby will continue to drift northeast and make landfall in the southeast panhandle of Florida. The HWRF is the only model that is still going for a west-to-Louisiana solution. The earlier run from the ECMWF backed off on it's Texas forecast, and is appears to becoming around to agreement with the GFS, which has been forecasting a track to the northeast for days, now. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center qualifies their forecast with the fact that Debby is going to spend plenty of time over water in the next couple of days, so strengthening is definitely a possibility. However, while sea surface temperature is warm, it will start to cool the longer Debby lingers, and the actual heat available in the northern Gulf is relatively low. Most of the models also suggest Debby will remain a tropical storm. Debby will continue to produce constant, heavy rain along the northeast and eastern Gulf coast over the next few days, and flood watches and warnings have been issued from Mobile, Alabama to southern Florida to reflect that.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Waves
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels (jpforte)
Water incursion by Debbie floats hotel lobby, Hyatt Hotel Clearwater Beach, FL
Clearwater Beach,FL:A rising tide floats all boats and hotels

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2204. StormHunter89
4:03 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting morrisfl:
Any idea what caused the feeder bands to push inland to the East last night and today? It sure has given the coast here near Tampa Bay a bit of a break...


Shear. There arent any new bands because of dry air, but it looks like she's starting something on her south side. That will rotate into the panhandle eventually.
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2203. dogsgomoo
2:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Debbie, thanks a bunch. I go for a nice long weekend of camping/kayaking on GA coast only to cut it short because of your wandering ways.

Late sunday we saw impressive clouds streaming in from S and then had tent deforming wind gusts over the top of a steady sea breaze and light rain. Get a bar on the phone to check weather only to find Debbie shifted tracks and she's no longer interested in visiting Louisiana. Oh and she's bulked up a bit to so what we're seeing looks suspiciously like a far rain band and not just an isolated rain shower.. Plus more behind it.

Consensus was reached in 10 minutes, time to pack up and head back to mainland. If she's so unpredictable that he pros are surprised; we don't want any of our own during the night high tide or morning paddle back. Sit on tops loaded with gear, novice and tired paddlers and potentially choppy/white cap surf plus rain would not be a good mix.

I still feel like we overreacted but i know it was a sensible choice. Rader shows we would have been soaked for most of the night. Surf reports show the paddle back would have been a decent workout.

Point being, keep an eye on the weather during storm season, no matter where you are on the coast. Frankly, it's better to be safe and feel silly ;) than ending up as one of "those" tourists that needs to be rescued because they ignored all warning signs till they had nochoice left.
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2202. RickWPB
1:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.

Pat's post showing the radar of N Fl with a spinning storm east of Jacksonville, reminds me of what the GFS was forecasting days ago. So much for being the 'outlier'.

sent from iPad
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2201. weatherbro
1:29 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
It wont make landfall in till friday night...



That just defies the laws of physics.
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2200. rxse7en
1:27 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.

That looks like the GFS solution from last week.
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2199. rxse7en
1:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:



I really am convinced this would have been a terribly powerful storm if not for that ULL destroying it so much back before it was even classified. The fact that it started one-sided and stayed one-sided, instead of filling in the whole monsoon trough with convection, has really made the difference in preventing catastrophe.
It would have been a monster. I'll be surprised if it doesn't gain some of that strength back sitting in the Gulf for 5-6 days.
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2198. WeatherMSK
1:18 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Man it really is starting to look like a new LLC is starting to form east of Florida. Could this become the new relocated Debbie?
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2196. GeoffreyWPB
1:16 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
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2195. ILwthrfan
1:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Anyone else find it very strange the similarities of Debby to Chris. When Chris was first trying to get going its structure was nearly identical to that of Debby's Currently. Chris was attached to that front for quite some time before he finally shook it off then began to intensify from just a low level swirl to gradually building convection around his center. Debby has had a monsoonal trough attached to her her entire life cycle. It will be interesting to see how Debby behaves the rest of the way.

Debby


Chris
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2194. morrisfl
1:11 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Any idea what caused the feeder bands to push inland to the East last night and today? It sure has given the coast here near Tampa Bay a bit of a break...
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2193. GeorgiaStormz
1:10 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
by HH debby has moved east, up to 995mb
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2192. GeorgiaStormz
1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:




wow. If that gets it's own LLC, the GFS is going to be the new king, regardless of what happens to Debbie.


It called the split the whole time, which the split itself wasn't that controversial, but the fact it took the "child" to 999mb seemed ridiculous. I guess we're about to see something really rare if it verifies.

I don't think I've ever seen a successful "split" get named, certainly not at the same time the parent was alive...


gfs no longer develops the split
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2191. SFLWeatherman
1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
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2190. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2189. RTSplayer
1:08 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.





wow. If that gets it's own LLC, the GFS is going to be the new king, regardless of what happens to Debbie.


It called the split the whole time, which the split itself wasn't that controversial, but the fact it took the "child" to 999mb seemed ridiculous. I guess we're about to see something really rare if it verifies.

I don't think I've ever seen a successful "split" get named, certainly not at the same time the parent was alive...
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2188. BrickellBreeze
1:08 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting 7544:
anyone think the cone will shift to the east latter on today after seeing the new model runs taking debbie to ene tia



Maybe.


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2187. Articuno
1:06 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:



I really am convinced this would have been a terribly powerful storm if not for that ULL destroying it so much back before it was even classified. The fact that it started one-sided and stayed one-sided, instead of filling in the whole monsoon trough with convection, has really made the difference in preventing catastrophe.

That ULL is a hero (not to Debby)
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2186. BrickellBreeze
1:06 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
I don't think Debby is dead yet...

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2185. Articuno
1:06 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Brock31:
Thats the problem with a storm named Debby...She's problably just going to do whatever she wants to do.

Best thing for all of us would be just to sit back and let her do her thing. Struggling will only make it worse.

Good luck.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2184. RTSplayer
1:05 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting rxse7en:
We got about 8 inches of rain in Jax last night. This was worse than the direct hit from Beryl for us. Had a couple of leaks, pool overflowed, and a section of fence is down. I'll be busy this morning while Debby looks to be rewrapping thunderstorms.



I really am convinced this would have been a terribly powerful storm if not for that ULL destroying it so much back before it was even classified. The fact that it started one-sided and stayed one-sided, instead of filling in the whole monsoon trough with convection, has really made the difference in preventing catastrophe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2183. Brock31
1:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Thats the problem with a storm named Debby...She's problably just going to do whatever she wants to do.

Best thing for all of us would be just to sit back and let her do her thing. Struggling will only make it worse.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2182. Articuno
1:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting SaintPatrick:
Any chances Louisiana will get anything from Debby?

If you haven't got any thing now, you probably won't get anything else, it matters on the intensity and the track of the storm in the next few days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2181. jpsb
1:02 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, the Euro has it hang out there too for about 4 days, and then start on a nor'easter track as probably a major hurricane just off the Atlantic coast, so you're looking at New England or Nova Scotia for a hurricane or well developed TS or STS...
Debby does EVERYWHERE ( but Dallas ).
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2180. rxse7en
1:01 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
We got about 8 inches of rain in Jax last night. This was worse than the direct hit from Beryl for us. Had a couple of leaks, pool overflowed, and a section of fence is down. I'll be busy this morning while Debby looks to be rewrapping thunderstorms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2179. largeeyes
12:59 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.


Ivan still has one of the most amusing NHC discussions I have ever seen.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2178. 7544
12:59 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
anyone think the cone will shift to the east latter on today after seeing the new model runs taking debbie to ene tia
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2177. Sfloridacat5
12:59 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Severe T. Storm warning for Collier county for the approaching squall line.
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2176. Clearwater1
12:59 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
dmax failed

looks like consensus is gone again.:


somewhere in that area though


The track across fl was always the solution of the GFS model, so that track would not surprise me at all. It (GFS) performed exactly as advertised over the past 300 hours or so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2175. RTSplayer
12:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Brock31:
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.


Well, the Euro has it hang out there too for about 4 days, and then start on a nor'easter track as probably a major hurricane just off the Atlantic coast, so you're looking at New England or Nova Scotia for a hurricane or well developed TS or STS...

East Coast SST anomalies...yeah...




And look at the core of the MDR from 43W onwards, where it really matters....above normal and in pockets above 1C above normal...man...

We got a cape verde wave forecast to be moving through there in a week...
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2174. BrickellBreeze
12:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
It wont make landfall in till friday night...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2173. Articuno
12:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nah, this was ginger:


sep6-oct3 1971

Just looked it up, it was Ginny.

Noel also produced snowfall in Maine.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2172. SaintPatrick
12:56 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Any chances Louisiana will get anything from Debby?
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2171. Brock31
12:55 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Those waves would be a killer..


Exactly..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2170. TheOnlyBravesFan
12:55 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Brock31:
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.


Nah, it needs to come to Northern Georgia for 2 or 3 days....we could use some rain, been dry lately. Would be a disaster of the east coast if it's there for a week...
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2169. Patrap
12:55 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
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2168. BahaHurican
12:55 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
That Bayshore Blvd footage is taken right at the foot of the bridge over to Davis Island... At the top of Hillsborough Bay. I note the hospital is right there, at the northern tip of Davis Island as they get off the bridge. If a TS could do this, I really don't want to think about impacts from even a cat 3.

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2167. GeorgiaStormz
12:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.


ok,
what i meant to say was that it is impossible in this situation for this to come back south to fl.

It is possible, just not this time
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2166. washingtonian115
12:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Brock31:
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.
No that wouldn't.Just imagine all the beach erosion and rip currents.Those waves would be a killer.Debbie must DIE.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2165. RTSplayer
12:53 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nah, this was ginger:


sep6-oct3 1971


Now that's a storm track!

Must have gotten picked up by a trough, then the trough somehow out-raced it, and then the High sent it back to the west....Amazing track there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2164. Brock31
12:53 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Man..I hope Debbie follows the CMC forecast. That would be great for her to just hang out off the SE Coast for a week or so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2163. RTSplayer
12:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
the cmc isnt taking this across florida strengthening and coming bak is it?
i was a post on an earlier page that showed that but that is impossible(almost,quantum physics)

ecmwf and cmc seem to deepen this when it is barely across fl


No, that's not impossible.

It probably has happened before.

Betsy
Gordon
Ivan

Ivan split after going through the middle part of the SE, and the LLC came back south, crossed Florida, and got re-upgraded to a TS, after having been on land several days.


Everyone thinks it's impossible for an Atlantic storm to turn south and strengthen, but it actually happens every few years. In fact, I thought the first one this year turned south and strengthened.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2162. GeorgiaStormz
12:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting Articuno:

hurricane ginger....wasn't that the one that produced snow instead of rain or was it another hurricane..?
NTW good morning everyone..


nah, this was ginger:


sep6-oct3 1971
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2161. Patrap
12:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2012


That remains a distinct possibility as its over Warm SST's and lil Shear, but it has to separate and distance itself from the Parent low which is well established in the GOM.

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2160. dewfree
12:51 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Like the photo
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2159. Tropicsweatherpr
12:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam‡ October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia‡ September 1971


That San Ciriaco killed over 3.000 people here in Puerto Rico.
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2158. Asrock
12:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
So question for the experts, if you look at the south east radar loop just north of the FL/GA line of the east coast. Is that spin I see? Could another storm spin up there separate from Debbie? Or could Debbie's COC suddenly relocate to the new spin? Just asking, I am but a lurker with limited knowledge, I live in SC and another close brush with a TS will just about clear up our drought. I know Beryl did some funky and unussual things and Debbies has as well so far.
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2157. Articuno
12:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam%u2021 October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia%u2021 September 1971

hurricane ginger....wasn't that the one that produced snow instead of rain or was it another hurricane..?
BTW good morning everyone..
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2156. Patrap
12:47 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
RAMSDIS Night IR to Day Viz
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2155. GeorgiaStormz
12:47 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
the cmc isnt taking this across florida strengthening and coming bak is it?
i was a post on an earlier page that showed that but that is impossible(almost,quantum physics)

ecmwf and cmc seem to deepen this when it is barely across fl
maybe a little backlash at jax?
and cape hatteras needs to be careful.
and canada

gfs weakens before landfall
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2154. washingtonian115
12:46 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Debby might break a record if she sticks around--below are the days of the previous record holders (first column is days)

28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam‡ October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia‡ September 1971
Oh god know.Debbie just needs to die already and get the hell out of here.
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