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Tropical Storm Chris forms; little change to Cuba disturbance; Duluth floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

Tropical Storm Chris formed Tuesday evening from a extratropical storm that spent enough time over waters of 24 - 26°C to acquire tropical characteristics. Chris is headed eastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than this date. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Chris.

Disturbance near Cuba will bring heavy rains to Florida
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms centered just south of Cuba has changed little since Tuesday, and is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northwest at about 5 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; strong upper-level winds out of the northwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. As the disturbance reaches the waters off the southwest coast of Florida this weekend, a strong trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the storm and accelerating it to the northeast. This is the solution of the GFS model, which takes the storm across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday, with the disturbance developing into a tropical or subtropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. None of the other reliable computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression. I think it is unlikely that heavy rains from this disturbance will affect Louisiana and Texas, but it will bring heavy rains to Southwest Florida and Cuba over the next five days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.


Figure 3. Rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8am EDT Monday as predicted by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Amounts in excess of five inches (orange colors) are predicted for Southwest Florida, with an area of ten inches (yellow colors) just off the coast.

Major flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
A serious flood emergency is occurring in Duluth, Minnesota. A series of "training" thunderstorms that all passed over the same region have dumped 4 - 5 inches of rain over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota overnight and early this morning. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the Denfeld area of western Duluth. This is more rain than fell in the city's previous worst flood on record, which occurred August 20, 1972. Major flooding is occurring, and only emergency travel is recommended in the city due to flooded roads. A flash flood warning from the Duluth National Weather Service issued at 7am CDT said this:

We cannot stress what a major threat this is for the city of Duluth
and along the North Shore. Aging infrastructure will also play a
part in the flood threat... especially on the hillside. Highway 61
remains closed in spots with washouts... overflowing streams and
rivers...washed out culverts and washed out roads. Just because you
might be able to travel to a destination now... does not mean you
will make it in one to two hours. This is how fast this situation
may deteriorate as more rainfall moves in from the west. There is
the potential for several more inches of rain today and the utility
system and the saturated ground cannot take much more rain.


According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the all-time 24 hour precipitation record for Duluth is 5.79" on 8/22 - 8/23 1978; 4.14" was recorded on Tuesday at the airport.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Duluth, Minnesota radar.

Jeff Masters

storm damage June 19 (CythiaSue)
there is another car buried on the other side of the road. This is just some of the storm damage from a 4 am rain and thunderstorm
storm damage June 19

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Hi Taz.

I know what you mean, man.

This is his second time posting that video today. he just doesn't give up.



what he needs too do is go too image or


POST IT WHATS CALL IN A LINK IF HE CANT DO IT RIGHT
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
yall need to calm down... its clearly coming to Nova Scotia eh? ... im just yankin yalls chains!
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Quoting LargoFl:
if i remember right the NHC said back in march that the dust storms this year coming across would really hamper any tropical things coming off africa this year and that most tropical storms etc would be home grown ones, so far they are right
Well yah its kinda June. Don't tend to see CV's until later.
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1235. MahFL
Cooling cloudtops, now some bright green....

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Day 6 forcast for low in GOMEX steagnth is still to be determined but Tampa an north their of might want to keep an eye on this and does any other models show a second Low in the BOC around that time frame?

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Well our 5 day forecast has us at 99 tomorrow but 83 or lower by Tuesday..pretty strong is you ask me.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/ PU BLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/ATL/03L.CHRIS/ir/geo/1km_ bw/full/20120620.2145.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.03LCHRIS.5 0kts-1005mb-382N-502W.100pc.html">

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oblivious fool..


If you call him a fool, you call Levi??

Levi is the bomb!! LOL
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Quoting LargoFl:
if i remember right the NHC said back in march that the dust storms this year coming across would really hamper any tropical things coming off africa this year and that most tropical storms etc would be home grown ones, so far they are right


Nothing to do with dust yet. All June storms affecting US are home grown (climatology.) Cape Verde season is long off.
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:
Oh great, the plaque is here!

My day just went downhill!




????
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Chris could become a hurricane
A. No way
B. Think he's got a shot
C. 100% yes
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Quoting LargoFl:
if i remember right the NHC said back in march that the dust storms this year coming across would really hamper any tropical things coming off africa this year and that most tropical storms etc would be home grown ones, so far they are right

I cant help but agree with you!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This is why the GFS needs to be disregarded, it's over-amplifying the trough because of a totally wacko MJO forecast. Completely unrealistic and out to lunch. Like I said, focus on the ECMWF and CMC until the GFS gets back from fantasy land.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's going to Texas.


Yes, I think your right. Levi was kind enough to enlighten us on his take. He has it to Texas also...

Link

Watch for yourself. Very interesting at the least!

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1223. LargoFl
Quoting nigel20:

It is also normal to have large SAL outbreaks in June...how are you doing Largo?
so far so good here thanks nigel, just a few light rain showers so far today
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Disregard the 18z GFS IMO.

Trough is way to strong, tries to make the system extra-tropical over the Gulf and as it makes landfall in Florida. No way that is going to happen in June, that is a December strength trough.

Focus on the ECMWF - more realistic with the trough.
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1220. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I will be very interested to see what happens when the Yucatan "low" emerges into the Gulf later tonight. After all, it seems this is what some of the models latch on to for development.
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1217. nigel20
Quoting LargoFl:
if i remember right the NHC said back in march that the dust storms this year coming across would really hamper any tropical things coming off africa this year and that most tropical storms etc would be home grown ones, so far they are right

It is also normal to have large SAL outbreaks in June...how are you doing Largo?
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1175. PRweathercenter 3:12 PM PDT on June 20, 2012 +0
Blog Update

Caribbean Storm Update for June 20th 2012



you need too learn how too post videos on here you mess up the blog for some
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's going to Texas.

Oblivious fool..
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


It is so Florida bound, that it ins't even funny, to say the LEAST!

You'd have to be completely oblivious to say that this bad girl is still headed off to Texas.

^_^.


No bad to you, but isn't it funny how everyone thinks 'if' a storm forms; it's coming for them...



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Quoting ncstorm:
looks the GFS is following the euro..crossing florida out to sea

998mb


Yeah, interesting ... but I'm still waiting for them to even call this an 'invest'. Once that happens (tomorrow?) we need a tropical model run with an initialized center of circulation plugged in.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1211. LargoFl
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
My quote function isn't working. What's most likely the cause.
Thanks
either reload or drop out and come back in, that happened to me alot yesterday
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I take that back..

Two storms heading for NE
2 storms, really?
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


It is so Florida bound, that it ins't even funny, to say the LEAST!

You'd have to be completely oblivious to say that this bad girl is still headed off to Texas.

^_^.
It's going to Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1207. LargoFl
Quoting wxmod:
Huge Sahara dust cloud (red) in mid Atlantic. MODIS satellite data.

if i remember right the NHC said back in march that the dust storms this year coming across would really hamper any tropical things coming off africa this year and that most tropical storms etc would be home grown ones, so far they are right
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1206. ncstorm
I take that back..

Two storms heading for NE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
My quote function isn't working. What's most likely the cause.
Thanks
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1203. TXCWC
A close comparison between the 12Z GFS and 18Z GFS shows that it pushed back the timing of the east coast trough a bit. Let's see if that trend continues next run.
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1202. LargoFl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1201. ncstorm
looks the GFS is following the euro..crossing florida out to sea

998mb
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Quoting Dragod66:
hurricane hunter flight tomorrow?


Friday afternoon at 2 PM EDT.
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1199. wxmod
Huge Sahara dust cloud (red) in mid Atlantic. MODIS satellite data.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


That is more than we have received in a week at least...


I think we just got 1/2" here in SRQ in last 30 minutes.
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hurricane hunter flight tomorrow?
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1196. ncstorm
999 mb
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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Google Chrome.

I am using Firefox
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MahFL:
The first cooling cloud tops of the llc. Center purple pixels.



LOL...OK that is funny...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody noticed the upper-level anticyclone taking place over the Yucatan? Things should begin to look up for our disturbance over the next two days.

yes I notice but it will help develop the low that is near yucatan or the one that is near Florida.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MichaelstpeteFL:
I believe that the model GFS, is correct. Will form in the Gulf and move towards west coast of Florida.. NWS agree as well as, the local forecasters, However, we need to wait on the low to even develop.


Of course local mets agree with GFS... it's good for TV ratings going into a weekend.
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1191. Patrap



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Quoting SotuhFloridian2012:


Google Chrome.
I am using chrome and its fine. Don't know whats wrong with yours.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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