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Category 1 Hurricane Carlotta hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2012

Hurricane Carlotta made landfall near Escondido, Mexico Friday night at 8 pm PDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Carlotta moved inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico this morning, and has weakened to a tropical depression. Since Carlotta was a relatively small hurricane, strong winds affected only a small portion of the coast, and wind damage was probably fairly limited. However, the hurricane has dumped heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and two deaths from a landslide triggered by heavy rains occurred this morning in the Oaxaca state community of Pluma Hidalgo. Carlotta will continue to dump heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and the 4 - 8 inches of total rainfall that will occur in some areas will be capable of causing more life-threatening flash floods and landslides through the weekend.


Figure 1. Radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar shortly before the storm made landfall.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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364. RTSplayer
12:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
And since I'm yapping away here: Arctic sea ice area has plummeted by 1.458 million square kilometers over the last eight days. That's an area larger than Texas, California, and New Mexico combined. The decrease is the single biggest eight-day drop on record.


Yes, I saw that.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
363. Chicklit
12:47 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
TY 1204 (GUCHOL)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 16 June 2012

Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16%uFFFD40'(16.7%uFFFD)
E128%uFFFD00'(128.0%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)

Central pressure 935hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt) 115 mph

Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Gusts to 161 mph
1 knot (kt) = 1.15077945 miles per hour (mph)

Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)


Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19%uFFFD20'(19.3%uFFFD)
E127%uFFFD05'(127.1%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt) 161 mph,
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt) 189 mph!
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)


Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21%uFFFD50'(21.8%uFFFD)
E127%uFFFD00'(127.0%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt) Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27%uFFFD05'(27.1%uFFFD)
E129%uFFFD35'(129.6%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32%uFFFD35'(32.6%uFFFD)
E135%uFFFD00'(135.0%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)

Link Japan Meteorological Agency

Thank goodness it will weaken as it hits Japan's eastern coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
362. HurricaneHunterJoe
12:44 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Link
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Link??
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
361. MAweatherboy1
12:42 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Abnormal heat returns to much of the nation by the end of the coming week and into the next, with the focal point being the mountain and desert West--definitely not what firefighters want to see. Even interior Alaska gets in on the action. Only the Northeast and the extreme West coast will be spared:

hot

hot

Speaking of fires, the High Park fire in Colorado is still burning wildly. It's the third largest wildfire in that state's history, having already scorched about 85 square miles (along with more than 100 buildings). The SPC is calling for critical fire conditions in the area at least through Tuesday (and they will likely lengthen that given the revised temperature forecast).

The Los Angeles Times quotes some officials as stating the dry weather and beetle-ravaged trees may provide conditons capable of keeping the blaze alive "all summer". Among the many concerns, the fire and smoke are seriously hurting Colorado's tourism right at the start of summer hiking and sightseeing season.

And since I'm yapping away here: Arctic sea ice area has plummeted by 1.458 million square kilometers over the last eight days. That's an area larger than Texas, California, and New Mexico combined. The decrease is the single biggest eight-day drop on record.

And even worse than those temperature maps...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
360. aspectre
12:41 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
La Mort de Carlotta
EP, 03, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1001W, 20, 1006, LO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
359. Tropicsweatherpr
12:39 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
95E is back!

EP, 95, 2012061700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1112W, 20, 1005, DB

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
358. PlazaRed
12:39 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Nea, Have you got the sea ice graph handy?
I was thinking it might now be at the lowest lever ever recorded for the date/time of year?
I would think we are well on course for the lowest levels ever by mid September.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
357. washingtonian115
12:36 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


It may mean you were outta shape last week, it got you in shape, and this week you did better?....
No I'm not outta shape.It's just that when your in the hot sun digging up earth and putting plants in and doing it over and over again with humidity and heat..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
356. Neapolitan
12:35 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.
That's very possible; working in a high humidity environment, your body can't regulate its temperature effectively through normal perspiring, so it ramps up the sweating even more. If you're not drinking enough water--or, you know, beer--you can still become dehydrated.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
355. Chicklit
12:35 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Hi Guys,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
354. PlazaRed
12:35 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Fukushima/Tepco best have a good plan for the # 4 Bldg there.


Some say that the super typhoon might get knocked about a bit on its way to Japan!
Might just turn into a passing kiss, rather than a hammer blow.
I am concerned about the recent lack of "after shocks," 15 months after the big quake and it might indicate a building stress area, that will soon break. If it waits much longer it may increase in size and be yet another nail in the coffin over there!
Down to about 5 aftershocks in the last week.
Could be bad timing if a big aftershock occurs when the "remains" of the super typhoon is just off shore. Sort of double Whammy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
353. RitaEvac
12:32 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.


It may mean you were outta shape last week, it got you in shape, and this week you did better?....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
352. Neapolitan
12:32 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Abnormal heat returns to much of the nation by the end of the coming week and into the next, with the focal point being the mountain and desert West--definitely not what firefighters want to see. Even interior Alaska gets in on the action. Only the Northeast and the extreme West coast will be spared:

hot

hot

Speaking of fires, the High Park fire in Colorado is still burning wildly. It's the third largest wildfire in that state's history, having already scorched about 85 square miles (along with more than 100 buildings). The SPC is calling for critical fire conditions in the area at least through Tuesday (and they will likely lengthen that given the revised temperature forecast).

The Los Angeles Times quotes some officials as stating the dry weather and beetle-ravaged trees may provide conditons capable of keeping the blaze alive "all summer". Among the many concerns, the fire and smoke are seriously hurting Colorado's tourism right at the start of summer hiking and sightseeing season.

And since I'm yapping away here: Arctic sea ice area has plummeted by 1.458 million square kilometers over the last eight days. That's an area larger than Texas, California, and New Mexico combined. The decrease is the single biggest eight-day drop on record.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
351. nigel20
12:31 AM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.

FWIW, I love high humidity. In fact, that's one of the reasons I live in Southwest Florida, and why I enjoy vacationing in tropical locations (Panama, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc.). Dry weather depresses me. To each his own, I guess... ;-)

Same here...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.
Well I do know that last week when when we did have humidity around I was dehydrated after only a hour in the yard doing the garden.This weekend not so much.And I've been outside for 3 hours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am almost hoping something doesnt form and move East of me, drives my temps up well over 100 and brings in very dry air. I know better than to listen too much to long range models and forecasts but sometimes it is fun to look at. I watch those models all the time and they change daily.
they change every 6 hrs
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now let's see how the media reacts to the situation next week....mmmm.


i love watching how the media reacts...what are we talking about? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Bottom line is don't listen to anyone, models, or forecasts, let the event unfold itself and you'll get an idea of what's gonna happen
I am almost hoping something doesnt form and move East of me, drives my temps up well over 100 and brings in very dry air. I know better than to listen too much to long range models and forecasts but sometimes it is fun to look at. I watch those models all the time and they change daily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Humidity is more terrible for you than dry weather.It drains all the moisture from your skin and leaves you dehydrated faster.
That's not quite right; your skin will stay amply moistened in a high humidity environment. The problem is that high humidity means that the evaporation your body counts on to regulate your body is held to a minimum, greatly increasing the chances you'll overheat.

FWIW, I love high humidity. In fact, that's one of the reasons I live in Southwest Florida, and why I enjoy vacationing in tropical locations (Panama, Costa Rica, Thailand, etc.). Dry weather depresses me. To each his own, I guess... ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Humidity is more terrible for you than dry weather.It drains all the moisture from your skin and leaves you dehydrated faster.

We quite happily work all day on building sites in up to 40+/C well over 100.F
There is normally about 10% humidity sometimes a bit more.
If the the humidity gets above 50% we dont even go to work. Basically have you ever tried laying bricks with a waterfall of sweat passing across your eyes.
Heat isnt a problem, and we've worked in up to 50/C ,( 52/C was the highest.)and that's shade temps, we dont normally get much shade. Humidity is the killer. Ask anybody who ever tried to work physically in Auckland NZ, in summer!
Wash, do you have a catalogue of your past avatars?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That would be Terrible News the Drought stricken areas of South Central Texas, anything East of us brings in Very Hot and Dry air, no rain here since early to middle of May. MOST MODELS WANT TO GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN
TAKES IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE GFS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NOGAPS TAKES
IT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL GO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THEN POPS WOULD DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW.



Bottom line is don't listen to anyone, models, or forecasts, let the event unfold itself and you'll get an idea of what's gonna happen
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Upper TX coast and SW Louisiana needs to keep an eye out...
That would be Terrible News the Drought stricken areas of South Central Texas, anything East of us brings in Very Hot and Dry air, no rain here since early to middle of May. MOST MODELS WANT TO GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN
TAKES IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE GFS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK ON SATURDAY WHILE THE NOGAPS TAKES
IT NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL GO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THEN POPS WOULD DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kemah, TX. Boardwalk, Galveston Bay



From San Luis Hotel, Galveston, TX



Moody Gardens, Galveston, TX,

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Wow...you'll have to drink a lot of liquid while running those fans/AC's
Humidity is more terrible for you than dry weather.It drains all the moisture from your skin and leaves you dehydrated faster.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Btw im on vacation now...im in Sherman tx
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Its never too early


When I see a spin and massive amounts of convection, then I'll be ready, and moving towards our general direction
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Too early for that

Its never too early
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for the info!
great way to usher in the first day of summer on wed with 110 degree humidex values
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Upper TX coast and SW Louisiana needs to keep an eye out...


Too early for that
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Prolonged hot and humid event Tuesday to Thursday

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A sultry airmass is set to arrive on Monday over southwestern
Ontario and make its way across the rest of Southern Ontario through
the week. Many communities across Southwestern Ontario east to the
greater Toronto area will experience a prolonged episode of high
Heat and humidity with day time highs soaring into the low thirties
with humidex values near 40 or higher. Night time temperatures
Will also remain very warm and are not expected to drop below 20
degrees in many areas.

This will make for very uncomfortable conditions and moderate to
High readings in the air quality health index. It is advised to stay
in an air conditioned place or seek shade when possible, drink lots
of water and limit physical outdoor activity.

The main heat event is expected to take place from Tuesday to
Thursday. As the hot air mass moves further east the statement will
be extended and subsequent humidex advisories may be issued.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

Thanks for the info!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Wow...you'll have to drink a lot of liquid while running those fans/AC's


Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Prolonged hot and humid event Tuesday to Thursday

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A sultry airmass is set to arrive on Monday over southwestern
Ontario and make its way across the rest of Southern Ontario through
the week. Many communities across Southwestern Ontario east to the
greater Toronto area will experience a prolonged episode of high
Heat and humidity with day time highs soaring into the low thirties
with humidex values near 40 or higher. Night time temperatures
Will also remain very warm and are not expected to drop below 20
degrees in many areas.

This will make for very uncomfortable conditions and moderate to
High readings in the air quality health index. It is advised to stay
in an air conditioned place or seek shade when possible, drink lots
of water and limit physical outdoor activity.

The main heat event is expected to take place from Tuesday to
Thursday. As the hot air mass moves further east the statement will
be extended and subsequent humidex advisories may be issued.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
The heat will be on for my area next week.Possible highs in the upper 90's with high humidity.Its going to be really nasty.Blah.Highs will already be in the mid 70's to lower 80's in the morning.

Wow...you'll have to drink a lot of liquid while running those fans/AC's
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
I am good.I was just reading that Carlotta killed two sisters age 7 and 13 so sad.

Yes, that's extremely sad...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Models are HORRIBLE at predicting the strength of storms. Especially when they haven't even formed yet.

The fact that they are all showing development should be of concern for everyone on the Gulf Coast. Nobody should look at the models and see a 1002 low and assume it will be a tropical wave. This is the Gulf of Mexico we are talking about here!!
You are so right! The H-center is still not very good predicting strenght.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think all the tx coast and la coast too!!! Not just the upper tx coast
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Hey allan...I'm good
How are you?
I am good.I was just reading that Carlotta killed two sisters age 7 and 13 so sad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The heat will be on for my area next week.Possible highs in the upper 90's with high humidity.Its going to be really nasty.Blah.Highs will already be in the mid 70's to lower 80's in the morning.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Link??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
At the same time Nigel lol. How are you doing?

Hey allan...I'm good
How are you?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
This is quite possibly the driest weather I have ever seen for June since I have lived here, oh how lovely, drought is about to march through the door again, in the wet season? That is not good.



So it's not my imagination.... (sigh)

I know we had rain falling in areas around here -- even in parts of the Cape today -- but it didn't rain in my neighborhood.

Any ideas on why we're so dry? It seems to me like the wind has been from every direction except the so-called classic Bermuda High - southeasterly winds. I know the East Coast of Florida has received good rains in the last few weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
This is quite possibly the driest weather I have ever seen for June since I have lived here, oh how lovely, drought is about to march through the door again, in the wet season? That is not good.


Where ya at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CARLOTTA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLO
NE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
At the same time Nigel lol. How are you doing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CARLOTTA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CARLOTTA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLO
NE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This is quite possibly the driest weather I have ever seen for June since I have lived here, oh how lovely, drought is about to march through the door again, in the wet season? That is not good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting charlottefl:


That really depends on conditions. If shear is present. Then they appear to be closer to the edge of the convection because the shear has blown the tops off the convection. If there is dry air, same idea. But "technically" the eye is always in the center of the storm whether it looks that way or not. Generally when conditions are ideal, low shear, moist atmosphere, etc., is when you get that classic symmetrical looking system.


Thank You
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


So, Are most Hurricane/Typhoons eyes off center or are in center of all the clouds? Does that make sense?.....lol


That really depends on conditions. If shear is present. Then they appear to be closer to the edge of the convection because the shear has blown the tops off the convection. If there is dry air, same idea. But "technically" the eye is always in the center of the storm whether it looks that way or not. Generally when conditions are ideal, low shear, moist atmosphere, etc., is when you get that classic symmetrical looking system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Upper TX coast and SW Louisiana needs to keep an eye out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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