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North Carolina ignores science in sea level planning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2012

An interesting political battle is underway in North Carolina on how to plan for 21st century sea level rise, newsobserver.com reports. Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100, and more than a dozen science panels from coastal states, including a state-appointed science panel in North Carolina, agree. However, a coastal economic development group called NC-20, named for the 20 coastal counties in North Carolina, attacked the report, saying the science was flawed. NC-20 says the state should rely only on historical trends of sea level rise, and not plan for a future where sea level rise might accelerate. North Carolina should plan for only 8 inches of rise by 2100, based on the historical trend in Wilmington, NC, the group says. Republican state legislators introduced a bill that follows this logic, requiring the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission to make development plans assuming sea level rise will not accelerate. On Thursday, a state senate committee signed off on the bill, sending it to the full Senate. NC-20 also successfully made an "intense push" to get the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, which is using a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, to lower its worst-case sea level rise scenario from 1 meter (39 inches) to 15 inches by 2100.


FIgure 1. Global sea level rise from 1992 - April 2012, as measured by three satellite instruments (TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2.) Sea level rise has been relatively constant at about 3.1 mm per year (1.2 inches per decade) during this time period. The big downward dip during 2010 is due to the fact that year had a record amount of precipitation over land areas. By 2011, that precipitation had run-off into the oceans, bringing sea level back up again. Image credit: University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group.

Commentary
East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs, a science panel member and coastal science expert, said of the proposed legislation, “We’re throwing this science out completely, and what’s proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science. You can’t legislate the ocean, and you can’t legislate storms.” Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, had this to say in his latest post: "I would dismiss the proposed law as an attempt to legislate away that which stands in the way of our desires to consume and build for our personal imperatives. I would dismiss it as politics and note the names of the un-serious politicians for the next election." I agree with both of these assessments. The best science we have argues the planet will continue to warm, melting icecaps, causing accelerated sea level rise. Between 1900 - 2007, global sea level rose at 1.7 mm per year (Bindoff et al., 2007). Between 1993 - 2012, sea level rise accelerated to 3.1 mm per year, a 75% increase over the 20th century rate. If this accelerated rate continues to 2100, global sea level rise will be 10.7", which is higher than the 8" rise North Carolina is being told to plan for. The continuing accelerating trend in Greenland ice loss since 2000 I blogged about last month should make anyone leery of betting that sea level rise will not accelerate even more in the coming decades. Betting that sea level rise won't accelerate this century is like betting that a slowly intensifying tropical storm will maintain that slow rate of intensification, ignoring that the majority of the computer models are predicting the storm will rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Sure, sometimes the models are wrong, but there is good science behind their predictions. If we wait until storm begins its rapid intensification to act, it will be a very costly mistake. The most sound action would be to prepare for the very plausible bad outcome our science is saying is most likely, instead of putting all of our chips on the low-probability, good-for-business outcome we hope for.

Sea, No Evil
Comedian Steven Cobert has a humorous piece on the new North Carolina sea level legislation in his June 4, 2012 Cobert Report. He uses the phrase "Sea, No Evil" to describe the affair. Some quotes:

"It would be a tragedy to lose precious coastal wildlife habitats to coastal flooding. Those habitats should be lost to developers' bulldozers."

"If your science gives you a result that you don't like, pass a law that the result is illegal--problem solved!"

Comedy Central reports on the recent decision by Virginia lawmakers to phase out use of the terms "climate change" and "sea level rise."

Resources:
Scientific America blog on the North Carolina sea level rise battle.
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a tropical tropical depression in the Western Caribbean this weekend, and takes the storm northwards into Florida early next week. None of the other models is going along with this idea, but there is some support for a broad area of low pressure developing in the Western Caribbean early next week in some of the other models. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, late this week, along the edge of a cold front moving off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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We have 94E, the possible beginnings to Carlotta.

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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012061212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012061212, , BEST, 0, 75N, 860W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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I dont know if anyone has said this yet but...
we have 94E.
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Quoting Dragod66:


Yeah i must say i don't remember that one... i was only 3 months old lol. it looked particularly good being that far north!
John Hope was all over dat..:)
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Quoting presslord:
OK people!!!!! THIS RIGHT HERE is why I'm so adamant about distancing us from our neighbors to the north....
???????????
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Quoting LargoFl:
.............................interesting, any of the models suggest that thing in the pacific, crossing over into the gulf region?
Does this muddy the picture anymore?
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To me it seems like the battle between the AGW and anti-AGW people is a lot like how the Baptist and the Catholics acted towards each other back in the early 1900's. My mom used to tell me that the Baptist said if you were a Catholic you were going to hell and the Catholics said the same thing about the Baptist.

I believe the climate is changing not strictly by mans doing, but he is helping it along. It is prudent if not logical that man should find other ways creating energy. But what should that be? Solar, Wind, Nuclear, hydro?
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"Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100, and more than a dozen science panels from coastal states, including a state-appointed science panel in North Carolina, agree."

"If this accelerated rate continues to 2100, global sea level rise will be 10.7", which is higher than the 8" rise North Carolina is being told to plan for."

These quotes are both taken from this blog post. The reason North Carolina is using 8" is because its only logical to base these figures on historical precedence, Rather than speculative science. I understand that all science is speculative to a certain degree. But for someone to tell anyone else that they are wrong without question about climate change, then it doesnt become science anymore, now its politics. That is wrong. The earth doesnt have a political party. We need to preserve the earth for future generations. But not spend all the money we have in the middle of a recession. If we have learned anything about the earth it is its resiliancy. It can heal itself, no matter what caused the changes we have seen. Because there is no way to know who or what caused the changes, or how long they will last, or the extent of them. But we can learn from our mistakes and take better care of our planet. That we can do now. Our planet has been through more changes and reformations than we probably know about. Those changes occured during times of no human habitation. Who can say for sure that these changes are being caused by us.
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Quoting hydrus:
You were born in 1991. We were tracking Hurricane Bob that year, and it whacked Rhoad Island and Cape Cod pretty bad.This image shows Hurricane Bob making landfall in New England on August 19 at 1818 UTC. This image was produced from data from NOAA-11, provided by NOAA.
Date 19 August 1991Formed August 16, 1991
Dissipated August 20, 1991
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
115 mph (185 km/h)
Lowest pressure 950 mbar (hPa); 28.05 inHg
Fatalities 15 direct, 2 indirect
Damage $1.5 billion (1991 USD)
Areas affected North Carolina, Mid-Atlantic states, New England and Atlantic Canada


Yeah i must say i don't remember that one... i was only 3 months old lol. it looked particularly good being that far north!
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Quoting Dragod66:
moving on... waiting for this ghost storm is annoying :P... i would rather just know that there is/isn't a storm gonna develop. Ahhh the tropics so unpredictable!
I find this makes it fun. Frustrating? Yes,but fun also.
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Quoting BobWallace:


So you believe a changing climate will not affect local weather?



No...I believe the arguments will not.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone notice that blog in the S.W part of the caribbean.Maybe much won't come from it.Still interesting little feature though.
That blob in the sw carb, seems to always be there, at least this time of year. It forms over the coast, moves west and then moves west over Latin America. Then repeats a few days later. However, if a low appears along with it, it may be a different story. What is interesting is that the NOGAPS did predict this area to develop and move north. We shall see in the next day or so.
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Quoting SavannaGayle:
Why don't you guys create another blog to hash out GW. These arguments grow tiresome.


So you believe a changing climate will not affect local weather?

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Quoting Dragod66:


ha! i will ... even though i might be too old to understand whats going on lol... ill be 109 years old and hopefully still kickin!
You were born in 1991. We were tracking Hurricane Bob that year, and it whacked Rhoad Island and Cape Cod pretty bad.This image shows Hurricane Bob making landfall in New England on August 19 at 1818 UTC.Formed August 16, 1991
Dissipated August 20, 1991
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
115 mph (185 km/h)
Lowest pressure 950 mbar (hPa); 28.05 inHg
Fatalities 15 direct, 2 indirect
Damage $1.5 billion (1991 USD)
Areas affected North Carolina, Mid-Atlantic states, New England and Atlantic Canada
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I just watched that show on the hurricane hunters on the weather channel, and I gotta say it was pretty darn cool.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Area in SE Bahamas.


Could that be a surprise area of development? hmmmm
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Quoting Chucktown:


That NE quadrant is always the worst part of the storm, that is why Virginia bore the brunt of Isabel, but most people forget about this, they only focus on that landfall and where the eye hits. Katrina was a good example, as bad as it was for New Orleans, the flooding was the big story there of course and it was a major city that was affected, but folks tend to forget some of the smaller cities that were in that NE quadrant and were basically wiped off the map - Long Beach, MS, Pascagoula, MS, etc... Read the Mississippi part of the Wikipedia entry on Katrina.

Link


No wonder Richmond was in a bad spot, that eye passed just 20-30 miles to our west. Interesting read!

And wow, they did indeed got wiped off the map. Katrina for outsiders is most known for the New Orleans flooding yet most don't know about what occurred in Mississippi. 55 foot storm surge invaded the area! Also you pointed out that NE quadrant... this says it all.

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Area in SE Bahamas.
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On the hurricane tie subject, the combination of double straps and a standing seam metal roof (that came with a 40 year guarantee) lowered my homeowners insurance 25%. They will pay for themselves over their lifetime.
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Thx!! LEVI:)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update on the development threat next week:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 12, with Video
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF shows Carlotta hitting Mexico and Debby (Ex-93E) moving towards Baja California in 72 hours.



You mean Daniel, not Debby.
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Quoting DocBen:
Dr M - who was that king who placed his throne on the beach and commanded the tide not to rise? How did that work out for him?


I suspect the tale has something to say with those denier-legislators...

Long ago, England was ruled by a king named Canute. Like many leaders and men of power, Canute was surrounded by people who were always praising him. Every time he walked into a room, the flattery began.

"You are the greatest man that ever lived," one would say.

"O king, there can never be another as mighty as you," another would insist.

"Your highness, there is nothing you cannot do," someone would smile.

"Great Canute, you are the monarch of all," another would sing. "Nothing in this world dares to disobey you."

The king was a man of sense, and he grew tired of hearing such foolish speeches.

One day he was walking by the seashore, and his officers and courtiers were with him, praising him as usual. Canute decided to teach them a lesson.

"So you say I am the greatest man in the world?" he asked them.

"O king," they cried, "there never has been anyone as mighty as you, and there never be anyone so great, ever again!"

"And you say all things obey me?" Canute asked.

"Absolutely!" they said. "The world bows before you, and gives you honor."

"I see," the king answered. "In that case, bring me my chair, and we will go down to the water."

"At once, your majesty!" They scrambled to carry his royal chair over the sands.

"Bring it closer to the sea," Canute called. "Put it right here, right at the water's edge." He sat down and surveyed the ocean before him. "I notice the tide is coming in. Do you think it will stop if I give the command?"

His officers were puzzled, but they did not dare say no. "Give the order, O great king, and it will obey," one of then assured him.

"Very well. Sea," cried Canute, "I command you to come no further! Waves, stop your rolling!. Surf, stop your pounding! Do not dare touch my feet!"

He waited a moment, quietly, and a tiny wave rushed up the sand and lapped at his feet.

"How dare you!" Canute shouted. "Ocean, turn back now! I have ordered you to retreat before me, and now you must obey! Go back!"

And in answer another wave swept forward and curled around the king's feet. The tide came in, just as it always did. The water rose higher and higher. It came up around the king's chair, and wet not only his feet, but also his robe. His officers stood before him, alarmed, and wondering whether he was not mad.

"Well, my friends," Canute said, "it seems I do not have quite so much power as you would have me believe. Perhaps you have learned something today. Perhaps now you will remember there is only one King who is all-powerful, and it is he who rules the sea, and holds the ocean in the hollow of his hand. I suggest you reserve your praises for him."

The royal officers and courtiers hung their heads and looked foolish. And some say Canute took off his crown soon afterward, and never wore it again.


Link

Don't mess with Mother Nature, She Who Must Be Obeyed. She'll wash your sorry butts out to sea....
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45 LargoFl I think we all here..have at some point in time..heard the story that california..at some point in time..will have that monster earthquake and sink into the sea..ok..now imagine...what would happen..to the Pacific ocean at that time?

If the LosAngelesBasin alone (covering ~15miles by ~35 miles) dropped a quarter mile (its height at the base of the foothills) into the ocean, the number of multi-story buildings left standing in NorthAmerica would be approximately 0%, and there wouldn't be that many more single-story buildings left either.
Which is why ya jes gotta laugh at folks who insist that "Californians oughtta move outta there. Haven't they heard about..."
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Yeah... Irene kinda paralleled the coast while Isabel barreled straight into it.

Isabel


Irene



For me Isabel was worse because of the angle it was hitting the coast, from the SE, eyewall remnants passed right over me here in central VA, will never forget that. VA got hit hardest I guess because we wern't prepared for the winds, we were expecting a moderate tropical storm at best over us yet we didn't see that increase in speed coming, made it worst.



That NE quadrant is always the worst part of the storm, that is why Virginia bore the brunt of Isabel, but most people forget about this, they only focus on that landfall and where the eye hits. Katrina was a good example, as bad as it was for New Orleans, the flooding was the big story there of course and it was a major city that was affected, but folks tend to forget some of the smaller cities that were in that NE quadrant and were basically wiped off the map - Long Beach, MS, Pascagoula, MS, etc... Read the Mississippi part of the Wikipedia entry on Katrina.

Link
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Good morning.

Blog update on the development threat next week:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 12, with Video
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another thing about hurricane ties is that they are only tested to withstand hurricane force winds ie. 120 kph and nothing more. Just another thing thing to keep in mind :) But if I lived in Florida I WOULD have them. better to be safe than sorry. They are not code here in NS so it was interesting to see when Juan blew through and whose roof survived and whose didn't especially when a houses roof right next door to someones house with ties didn't survive and the one with ties did in similar subdivisions.
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The ECMWF shows Carlotta hitting Mexico and Debby Daniel (Ex-93E) moving towards Baja California in 72 hours.

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Quoting Squid28:


They do help/work, but they do not make your home impervious to any situation that may arise. There are simply too many variables to try and include to make an unequivocal statement. If it were me yes I would include them cost to install at them while other work is going on is incremental to the cost to retrofit later if you were required to do so.

They may also get you a discount on your insurance if you are in a wind risk area, check with your insurance company. When we remodeled our house thanks to Ike, we brought it up to full wind code for windows, doors, roof, siding etc. Our insurance actually went down in cost dramatically by around $600 a year for our wind policy.
Can you provide a brief list please that describes bringing each item "up to code"? Most effective thing I did, in my opinion, was board the windows before Ike hit. My neighbors thought I was crazy for doing so, I wasn't called crazy after the storm though.
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Everyone Realize, that the caribbean system is relying fully on the strong low in the epac to cross central America and begin firing in the western Caribbean in order to form into any type of storm.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hello tropicfreak.I was on the other day,Didnt see you on here.Was at the gulf on vacation.Could not get over how much rain we got down there.


I heard what happened down there, crazy stuff, but hey for some it completely erased the drought situation. That's what we want to see right? Then again, Pensacola could spare at least 4" of their 21", we are 4-5" below normal and could use some rain, but it isn't too dire.
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House I had here in Houston during Ike had roof ties. I assume you mean the metal clips that tie the rafters to the upper wall sill plate and wall studs, instead of just toe nailing. Winds measured to 100 mph didn't effect the roof, but there were a few shigles damaged.
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Quoting LargoFl:
folks I have a serious question,maybe someone here has the answer, many people have told me to use Roof tie-downs...my question is..has anyone here really used them in a hurricane and are they..worth the cost? and most importantly..do they really work?


They do help/work, but they do not make your home impervious to any situation that may arise. There are simply too many variables to try and include to make an unequivocal statement. If it were me yes I would include them cost to install at them while other work is going on is incremental to the cost to retrofit later if you were required to do so.

They may also get you a discount on your insurance if you are in a wind risk area, check with your insurance company. When we remodeled our house thanks to Ike, we brought it up to full wind code for windows, doors, roof, siding etc. Our insurance actually went down in cost dramatically by around $600 a year for our wind policy.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Hey mrsalagranny! Long time no see!
Hello tropicfreak.I was on the other day,Didnt see you on here.Was at the gulf on vacation.Could not get over how much rain we got down there.
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Quoting LargoFl:
well as i was researching thi very thing this morning i came across evidence that there were 2 great floods, one around 10,000 bc and the other around 3000 bc,all written evidence comes after..3000 bc, carbon 14 doesnt work back as far as 10,000 bc, so we may never know the truth
It's truly fascinating stuff.  I live for it, definitely where some of my weather passion came from.  The Younger Dryas completely baffled me as a young teenager.  I had to find out why it was so sudden and traumatic to the worlds climate at the time.  
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Quoting jeffs713:

Roof Tie downs do work, and are part of the building code in some of the more hurricane-prone areas of the country (I think they are mandatory in Miami-Dade, IIRC). When my wife and I built our house, I mandated that the builder put them in.

The thing about tie-downs is that they do not make your roof immune to storm wind... If you get solid Cat 3 winds, you could go nuts with tie-downs, and still have a chance of losing your roof.
ok ty,my guess is a cat 3 or higher, get out of dodge and survey damage later..so far we here have been very lucky indeed
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Quoting LargoFl:
many thanks for the reply,so far I have been lucky with storms but this season I am worried


Np. Do you have hurricane ties?
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Well I mentioned the SE Bahamas a couple of days ago. Looks to be getting interesting today for development.
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To Post #107, good luck to you Drag., hope you make it!
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Quoting Chucktown:


The biggest reason why Irene caused so much erosion/coastal damage was the way it "passed" NC. Several hours of hurricane force easterly winds as the storm moved due north then eventually making landfall, vs. a storm that usually is turning by the time it reaches that latitude and a glancing blow is the result with winds mainly from the NE for a few hours and putting the OBX on the "weaker" side of the storm. Irene was a completely different animal, the track she took was not the norm.


Yeah... Irene kinda paralleled the coast while Isabel barreled straight into it.

Isabel


Irene



For me Isabel was worse because of the angle it was hitting the coast, from the SE, eyewall remnants passed right over me here in central VA, will never forget that. VA got hit hardest I guess because we wern't prepared for the winds, we were expecting a moderate tropical storm at best over us yet we didn't see that increase in speed coming, made it worst.


Anyway your theory may be correct but keep in mind when Isabel came through it also pushed the ocean into the OBX as well, yet it only cut one inlet. Then again for most of the OBX it was a glancing blow while for Irene they were being lashed for nearly a day. Your point could definitely be arguable. I think another reason could be over the years the rough surf from fish storms has weakened and eroded some of the land away.
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Quoting Dragod66:


Well im in the architectural engineering technician program and we call them hurricane ties for one reason... they provide extra strength in high winds. They are useful during a cat 1 and probably a cat 2 but after a cat 3 its anyone's best guess. The position of the roof, its age, the direction of the wind are all factors in determining if the roof will last. I know during Hurricane Juan, most people's roofs with hurricane ties survived.
many thanks for the reply,so far I have been lucky with storms but this season I am worried
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Quoting LargoFl:
folks I have a serious question,maybe someone here has the answer, many people have told me to use Roof tie-downs...my question is..has anyone here really used them in a hurricane and are they..worth the cost? and most importantly..do they really work?


Well im in the architectural engineering technician program and we call them hurricane ties for one reason... they provide extra strength in high winds. They are useful during a cat 1 and probably a cat 2 but after a cat 3 its anyone's best guess. The position of the roof, its age, the direction of the wind are all factors in determining if the roof will last. I know during Hurricane Juan, most people's roofs with hurricane ties survived.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

    I wonder if there is a direct correlation between the Noah's Ark legend, the Younger Dyras Event, and the Great Pyramids.  I have seen many studies independent of one another all claiming that they occurred/built between 12,000 & 9,000 BC.  I know many scholars are bent on saying the Pyramids were built around 2,000 BC, but I have seen some very interesting facts about the chemical weathering that took place on that structure that could have only been accomplished under a much more humid/moist environment, which existed and only existed most recently about the same 12 to 9,000 BC time frame. You couple that with the most recent findings of fossilized ancient mangroves scattered all across the middle and Northern Sahara that have also just been discovered to exist about the same time from 12 to 9,000 BC. That particular latitude was also much further south due to the obliquity of the earth a.k.a. (Milankovitch Cycle).  The climate then would have been more than adequate enough to produce the chemical weathering seen at the base of the Sphinx and the some of the base rock of the Pyramids.      In the same time period we are now discovering remnants of long ago ports and cities that are now lying under water, which only would have been above sea level in the same time frame mentioned above.  
well as i was researching thi very thing this morning i came across evidence that there were 2 great floods, one around 10,000 bc and the other around 3000 bc,all written evidence comes after..3000 bc, carbon 14 doesnt work back as far as 10,000 bc, so we may never know the truth
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Quoting LargoFl:
folks I have a serious question,maybe someone here has the answer, many people have told me to use Roof tie-downs...my question is..has anyone here really used them in a hurricane and are they..worth the cost? and most importantly..do they really work?
My house was built in 2005 after our trio of storms and the hinges were inlcuded in the constuction..as was explained to me it allowed the roof to lift up to aloow the winds to 'blow' thru somewhat..almost along the lines of the old constuction theories of letting high winds blow thru your roof instaed of "lifting" it off..does it work? We have yet to see..but it was a plus for the ins. company...
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Quoting LargoFl:
folks I have a serious question,maybe someone here has the answer, many people have told me to use Roof tie-downs...my question is..has anyone here really used them in a hurricane and are they..worth the cost? and most importantly..do they really work?
Yes my house had them in Ivan & Dennis and if you want your roof to stay on your house they are well worth the Cost!!
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Quoting aerojad:
I think this gets to the crux of the debate. It's not a battle between belief systems. Faith is in your heart, and the validity of your beliefs can not be proven to be correct or incorrect with empirical evidence.

Science, in the meantime, includes the observations of what is happening here and now. The sciences are largely responsible for the life we all live. Considering it a belief system just mucks up this whole discussion.
one must understand, the bible and most other religious books contain many personal observations about the climate and weather at THAT time..when researching ancient weather related events one must overlook the religious aspect and delve into the personal accounts of what happened back then
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so you never read about that noah guy and the great flood

seems like that might have been climate change or maybe shift
    I wonder if there is a direct correlation between the Noah's Ark legend, the Younger Dyras Event, and the Great Pyramids.  I have seen many studies independent of one another all claiming that they occurred/built between 12,000 & 9,000 BC.  I know many scholars are bent on saying the Pyramids were built around 2,000 BC, but I have seen some very interesting facts about the chemical weathering that took place on that structure that could have only been accomplished under a much more humid/moist environment, which existed and only existed most recently about the same 12 to 9,000 BC time frame. You couple that with the most recent findings of fossilized ancient mangroves scattered all across the middle and Northern Sahara that have also just been discovered to exist about the same time from 12 to 9,000 BC. That particular latitude was also much further south due to the obliquity of the earth a.k.a. (Milankovitch Cycle).  The climate then would have been more than adequate enough to produce the chemical weathering seen at the base of the Sphinx and the some of the base rock of the Pyramids.      In the same time period we are now discovering remnants of long ago ports and cities that are now lying under water, which only would have been above sea level in the same time frame mentioned above.  
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Quoting LargoFl:
folks I have a serious question,maybe someone here has the answer, many people have told me to use Roof tie-downs...my question is..has anyone here really used them in a hurricane and are they..worth the cost? and most importantly..do they really work?

Roof Tie downs do work, and are part of the building code in some of the more hurricane-prone areas of the country (I think they are mandatory in Miami-Dade, IIRC). When my wife and I built our house, I mandated that the builder put them in.

The thing about tie-downs is that they do not make your roof immune to storm wind... If you get solid Cat 3 winds, you could go nuts with tie-downs, and still have a chance of losing your roof.
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Quoting originalLT:
Dr. Masters mentions the year 2100, you know, the real sad part is none of us here will be around by then to see what really happened!


ha! i will ... even though i might be too old to understand whats going on lol... ill be 109 years old and hopefully still kickin!
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Quoting tropicfreak:


What baffles me is how Irene as a moderate Cat 1 was able to cut several inlets while Isabel as a moderate Cat 2 was only able to cut 1. Might it have to do with the speed differences they were moving towards the coast at? Or the constant eroding of the land/beach from high surf especially from the several fish storms that we have seen over the past 5 years before Irene that passed 200 miles offshore? Both?


The biggest reason why Irene caused so much erosion/coastal damage was the way it "passed" NC. Several hours of hurricane force easterly winds as the storm moved due north then eventually making landfall, vs. a storm that usually is turning by the time it reaches that latitude and a glancing blow is the result with winds mainly from the NE for a few hours and putting the OBX on the "weaker" side of the storm. Irene was a completely different animal, the track she took was not the norm.
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The coastline here in Flagler county have to be "filled" in every year due to erosion..right up to and including A1A.. which was repaired numerous times since 2004(Charlie,Frances and Jean)..and I believe New Smyrna beach also has had the same problem though not as far to the highway..correct me if I am wrong..good luck with your beach house..I am 10 miles inland...lol
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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