We're changing our WunderBlogs. Learn more about this important update on our FAQ page.

Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

You be able to leave comments on this blog.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 154 - 104

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Something weird is going on here...






What Do You Mean?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


If you were up early enough this morning, I already posted that. :) I gave a full analysis. Wassup 98?

You know just blogging and doin my thing!! Thank God schools out ive been ready what about you grothar?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Something weird is going on here...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There seems to be a lot of tropical activity right now and if, im saying a big IF 94L developes, then june july and august will be DEAD if the hurricane forecast is correct
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting tropicfreak:


I think most didn't do well because they couldn't pick up such a small system like Alberto.


I totally agree. And not only small around, he was a really shallow storm when he wasn't making any convection & then the constant switch from bits of convection reaching higher & then none again made it even harder.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


What do you expect when we have this...


40 kt windshear


If you were up early enough this morning, I already posted that. :) I gave a full analysis. Wassup 98?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. NYX
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Sure looks to me like 94L isn't going to do anything beneficial for SW Florida. We have been roasting under brilliant blue skies in Cape Coral for days now. I love the idea of all the rain everyone's talking about for the weekend and next week, but in our little corner I'm starting to think we've borrowed the Texas Death Ridge!


Amazing isn't it. And yet just across the state on the east coast cars were floating away in the street.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
Awww, c'mon guys. Worrying about unpredictable events that occur on the order of 100s-of-1,000s of years apart ain't all that interesting what with the mess of Chernobyl, Fukushima, the lack of permanent disposal sites and/or reprocessing facilities for nuclear waste, the fossil fuel and various other mining industries air&land&water pollution, the fishing industry depleting fish stocks past sustainability, the agricultural&aquacultural industrial destruction of wildlands&mangroves&marshes, globalization of trade intensifying invasive pest species wreaking havoc in new lands, AND ClimateChange.

Sad part is ClimateChange may be the last and least on the list. ie Solve the other problems, and ClimateChange swings back to the post-hunter-gatherer normal in a(few)hundred years.


The only one of these events we can prepare for or mitigate is climate change. That is what we need to focus on, not all of these other scenarios that the Science and History Channel like to throw at us. The earth's atmosphere will also be blown away someday and the earth destroyed by the expanding solar corona. There is even a Steven Hawking proposal on that and how to avoid it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAstorms:


Ray of sunshine are we. When Yellowstone blows there won't be much left of the Western or Central US or Canada to speak of but that could be tomorrow or in several thousand years.
i want what she's having :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What happened to the 12z GFS run that is not out yet?


INIT got delayed a bit but is coming out now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Nice windsat of Bud
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Yellowstone Event

This first powerful event will result in wide-spread destruction over the United States and beyond her
border into Canada. The destruction in Canada will be less, but
she will experience repercussions from what will happen in the
U.S.; because she is a neighbor.
When we are told that a third of all plant life will be destroyed,
that is exactly what it means.
Widespread death of animals and
birds, but also a large number of people will die—into the tens of
thousands.


Ray of sunshine are we. When Yellowstone blows there won't be much left of the Western or Central US or Canada to speak of but that could be tomorrow or in several thousand years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


windsat doesn't show anything
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
(from baynews9).......Since Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the weekend, I have received a few phone calls and emails asking how a storm before the hurricane season starts could impact the entirety of the season. Well, I did a little research and discovered some interesting details.

Since hurricane and tropical storm record keeping began back in 1851, there have been 23 seasons that have had storms before June 1. Two of those seasons, 1908 and 1887, had two storms form before the season began.

Interestingly the chance of a pre-season storm is about the same as finding a season with a category 5 hurricane as there have been 27 seasons with a Cat-5.

Every month has been represented in preseason storms. In 1978, there was a sub tropical storm in January. 1952 had a tropical storm in February. 1908 saw the first storm of the season in March and it was a hurricane. 2003 and 1992 had systems form in April. Yes, that is correct, I said 1992. In 1992, a sub tropical storm formed in April. Sub tropical storms didn't start getting names until the mid 2000s. So, if today's rules applied, Andrew would have been Bonnie.

Of the 23 seasons with a pre-season storm, 5 had "hyperactive" season with more than 150% of normal activity; 10 had seasons with below normal activity and the rest were within one named storm of normal.

After calculating the averages......seasons with a preseason storm ended up with a season total of 10.7 named storms with 6 hurricanes. That is just about perfectly average for any given hurricane season.

So, the conclusion is simply this....the existence of a preseason storm has no bearing on the totals for the whole season, but the research brought to light some interesting findings.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we may not have 94L by days end
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to the 12z GFS run that is not out yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:

That wind shear isn't going to last forever and sooner or later one of those lows is going to be back on the map! Then?


Ships says that the shear will NOT let up, but currently, it shouldn't have convection. Plenty of shear to blow it off
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Kottlowski also mentioned an apparent correlation between dry weather in the spring and the hurricane season. "Usually when Florida experiences a dry spring, the chances are better for a tropical storm or hurricane to hit the state later in the year," he said. If that works out this year, it would bring welcome rain to the parched state, but, of course, bring with it the usual damaging consequences of a tropical system.

by Frank Strait, senior meteorolgist
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:

That wind shear isn't going to last forever and sooner or later one of those lows is going to be back on the map! Then?


The shear isn't going anywhere until the jetstream lifts north, which might not be until mid-late June.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey man, the lightning was insane last night. We had strikes every second for a time around 10:00pm. As a result you can smell the smoke in the air today.

yeah i heard you guys over there got some, we need the rain over here before the fires start, already we are in the red.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:
So Reading this line from the blog heading, just what does this mean from the average Miami person in the streets point of view, apart from wet and mess?:-

" Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date,"

Is this going to be a disaster? Or is it a godsend? Or Both?


Localized flooding only, heavy rain was not widespread.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



What are the chances of 94l reaching td status?


Not looking too good at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Pray for rain, not lightning.

A tropical storm might even be welcome, but not a hurricane.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam said Tuesday the entire state’s water resources will continue to be tested throughout the spring and summer due to the ongoing drought conditions.

“It obviously impacts your ag needs and urban supply needs,” Putnam said at the start of the state Cabinet meeting in the Capitol. “We’ve got springs going dry in the Suwannee Valley.”

The state has also halted water releases from Lake Okeechobee, which impacts both sides of the state's lower peninsula, Putnam said.

Division of Forestry Director Jim Karels said his division remains on alert, trying to stay ahead of firefighter and equipment fatigue. The entire state remains in serious drought conditions that are likely to result in Florida having a repeat of the 2011 wildfire season when about 200,000 acres burned.

The concern is that the longer the drought continues, the dryer the soil will become before the rainy season that normally gets under way in May.

Karels said the state may need two months of rain, or some “type of tropical event” to saturate the ground enough to help contain fires.

“We’re trying to stay ahead of the game because we know lightning is coming,” Karels told Gov. Rick Scott and state Cabinet members.


Hey man, the lightning was insane last night. We had strikes every second for a time around 10:00pm. As a result you can smell the smoke in the air today.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


What do you expect when we have this...


40 kt windshear

That wind shear isn't going to last forever and sooner or later one of those lows is going to be back on the map! Then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pray for rain, not lightning.

A tropical storm might even be welcome, but not a hurricane.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam said Tuesday the entire state’s water resources will continue to be tested throughout the spring and summer due to the ongoing drought conditions.

“It obviously impacts your ag needs and urban supply needs,” Putnam said at the start of the state Cabinet meeting in the Capitol. “We’ve got springs going dry in the Suwannee Valley.”

The state has also halted water releases from Lake Okeechobee, which impacts both sides of the state's lower peninsula, Putnam said.

Division of Forestry Director Jim Karels said his division remains on alert, trying to stay ahead of firefighter and equipment fatigue. The entire state remains in serious drought conditions that are likely to result in Florida having a repeat of the 2011 wildfire season when about 200,000 acres burned.

The concern is that the longer the drought continues, the dryer the soil will become before the rainy season that normally gets under way in May.

Karels said the state may need two months of rain, or some “type of tropical event” to saturate the ground enough to help contain fires.

“We’re trying to stay ahead of the game because we know lightning is coming,” Karels told Gov. Rick Scott and state Cabinet members.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
The low is well displaced from the convection.



What do you expect when we have this...


40 kt windshear
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:


Getting an eyewall!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Where's the 12Z GFS?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The low is well displaced from the convection.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:
So Reading this line from the blog heading, just what does this mean from the average Miami person in the streets point of view, apart from wet and mess?:-

" Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date,"

Is this going to be a disaster? Or is it a godsend? Or Both?
they really could have used all that rain..in the everglades
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
119 wunderkidcayman: I noticed, thanks, but still that is not where the LLCOC is

The NHC made a lot of changes, which means that they're still not all that confident. And they may not think that the LowLevelCenterOfCirculation is the most important center to follow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So Reading this line from the blog heading, just what does this mean from the average Miami person in the streets point of view, apart from wet and mess?:-

" Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date,"

Is this going to be a disaster? Or is it a godsend? Or Both?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
106 tropicfreak: Wilma was a huge system and underwent RI. Went from a TS to a full blown cat 5 in 24 hours, which is a record that still stands.

But Wilma was also compact when compared to Ike.
Wilma covered the Yucatan, Ike covered over half of the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
I responded to your earlier question about the ATCF and 94L, wunderkidcayman, on page1comment10.

I noticed thanks but still that is not where the LLCOC is
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Bud appears to have stop strengthening.



Though a lot of storms stall out once they finish their eyewall to let convection dissipate before firing it again.
i saw someone mentioned ingesting dry air on previous blog, which i did see visible on a CIMSS precipitable water loop. could be battling that while it moistens the environment during strengthening...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
also low level convergence is also growing more on our honduras low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I responded to your question about the ATCF and 94L, wunderkidcayman, on page1comment10.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on the 15Z vort show the 850 vort by honduras getting stronger and rounder and bigger and the area near cuba weaker a line and smaller
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bud appears to have stop strengthening.



Though a lot of storms stall out once they finish their eyewall to let convection dissipate before firing it again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey all!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Afternoon Everybody.
Quake of the Day:-

MAP 6.1 2012/05/23 15:02:25 41.378 142.073 40.7 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:

*sniffle*

He's growing up so fast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:


Not quite pinhole but that's definitely an eyewall!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L/INV/XX
MARK
17.13N/81.24W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
44 TropicalAnalystwx13: Yeah, I know. As I said this morning, bud is in the process of rapidly intensifying. Should be a hurricane this afternoon.

Gotta remember that TSBud is a BIG storm. And storms covering a lot of area tend to consolidate more slowly than smaller storms. eg HUGE HurricaneIke took the length of the Gulf to go from a (?highCat.1?)lowCat.2 to a highCat.2 (fortunately for Galveston-Hoston).

The size of the TSBud may have been the main factor in its earlier slow intensification even though it was under extremely favorable conditions. Not saying TSBud won't become a hurricane later in the day, but I'm expecting early morning tomorrow (or maybe later) rather than today.


Wilma was a huge system and underwent RI. Went from a TS to a full blown cat 5 in 24 hours, which is a record that still stands. Wilma did take a while to transition from a TD to a TS according to the report but as the environment became more favorable it underwent RI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
question for anyone when does the ASCAT, OSCAT, and WindSCAT makes their decend passes over the atlantic basin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 154 - 104

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
43 °F
Mostly Cloudy

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice