Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 304 - 254

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Quoting stormpetrol:


well it show a weak surface circulation this morning and it did miss it this afternoon but by seeing what we could plus following the sat loop that one should be around 17/18N 82/83W that is all I am saying just wanting you guy too know what I said is what I mean just this I am not saying it that it wi8ll be a TS ir a hurricane in 12-24hours ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
303. TXCWC
So latest Euro shows strong development off of North Carolina/SE U.S. in 2-3 days and meandors for days making its way eventually East of Florida before finally weakening and apparently heading safely away from U.S. Coast and getting caught up in a trough. CENTER NEVER MAKES LANDFALL on this run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can anyone post a link for all the tropic model runs..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L RIP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So I should evacuate?

Only if you live in or near a town called Katy. (those who follow the "SciGuy" blog on the Houston Chronicle website will understand that comment. The rest of you will just think I'm crazy)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seastep:
Latest ASCAT is a whiff, but does have west winds down by Honduras.



This would correspond to where I said I thought the low was at near 17N/82.5W, the older ascat I posted shows the low clearly just east of Roatan last night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The WUD-9000+ has a Cat 5 hitting Miami, New Orleans, New York, and Boston on its intensity guidance.
That's my kinda computer model
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
242 stormwatcherCI to 232 wunderkidcayman You will get development quick enough.

Too quick if a TropicalCyclone runs over the CaymanIslands.

And what's wrong with referring to them as 'the Caymans' anyways?
Is this another one of them thar "Frisco" & "Carolinas" thangs?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest ASCAT is a whiff, but does have west winds down by Honduras.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
293. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting jeffs713:

The NHC probably wanted a floater on it for detailed imagery and model data.


They ran the models but have been holding back on the floater..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Lol
Wud-9000 would be nice I need some raiN


The WUD-9000+ has a Cat 5 hitting Miami, New Orleans, New York, and Boston on its intensity guidance.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3486
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Speaking of fires: Another day of extreme risk in the Southwest

yes its bad out there, saw a temp of 103 gee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


See where the low is, well its just a little ENE of there now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
....................................the folks at the NHC read your posts here last nite, so they gave you your yellow circle lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
any fires get started with all that lightning last nite?

Speaking of fires: Another day of extreme risk in the Southwest

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
From last night late, many of you didn't see it.

So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS


Lol
Wud-9000 would be nice I need some raiN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well it said no defined surface circulation as of yet and as I said earlier a surface circulation can develop anywhere in the NW caribbean so all in the area keep an eye out and if you can please post you local obs

and when the surface circulation develops then you will see precentage go up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


StormTracker, you did not get any rain in Maitland last night? Here in Altamonte, it was really intense and based on the radar, the worst appeared to be centered over Maitland. Quite windy too, looked like a tropical storm for a while.
any fires get started with all that lightning last nite?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Cool just down the street from me by the South Sound Community Hall! The rain has eased up , the winds have died down a bit, but the seas are a lot rougher today!
I would love to be where you are so i can witness all the crazy weather you all have been getting :).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thats better not that i wish bad luck on anyone else but i dont wish it on me either
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
A quick vid of the winds on the south coast of Grand Cayman for those interested. The rain has eased off for now.




Link


Cool just down the street from me by the South Sound Community Hall! The rain has eased up , the winds have died down a bit, but the seas are a lot rougher today!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 231822
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BER


now thats new
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can someone give me the link to the euro link..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sanvu is very nearly a typhoon if it isn't one already.

23/1432 UTC 17.5N 139.5E T3.5/4.0 SANVU -- West Pacific

Bud is getting up there too.

23/1800 UTC 13.4N 107.9W T3.0/3.0 BUD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 231822
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 231822
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BER


too much for nothing
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
Basically the one thing I really disagree with is why waste time putting up a yellow circle if you say there is 0% or near 0% chance of development, don't put up a circle at all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So I should evacuate?


Of course not! Why would you evacuate based off of fake models?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3486
Quoting WxGeekVA:
From last night late, many of you didn't see it.

So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS


So I should evacuate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCWC:


Take a look at the latest Euro run!
Yes.I think we may have another round of tropical activity off of the Carolinas like with Alberto.We may have to start looking at the caribbean the last week of May into early June.Who knows...maybe Chris will show up in about two-three weeks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Zapdos:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


old
Quoting jeffs713:

Thank you for pointing this out. wunderkidcayman has been pushing development of what is now 94L for a week. Keeps on saying its 12-24 hours from getting named... every single time.

right lets get something straight I said nothing about a named TS I was saying it could become a TD do you understand what I just said cause I know you are saying that I was stating it was too develop how ever I never said TS but anyway look right now just keep alert keep an eye out watch the surface obs and wait
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From last night late, many of you didn't see it.

So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3486
Animated loop seems to show clearly that Bud is owning that dry air. :P Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02E/H/B/C1
MARK
13.55N/107.9W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63771
A quick vid of the winds on the south coast of Grand Cayman for those interested. The rain has eased off for now.




Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHEW!! i wish people would not play like that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
263. TXCWC
Quoting washingtonian115:
IF anything is going to come from 94L then it would have to come off of the south east coast.Cause the caribbean just isn't allowing anything to form...Some moisture may stay behind in the caribbean and could help develop whatever the hell the GFS keeps spinning up...


Take a look at the latest Euro run!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


It's been wet in South Florida for the past few weeks. We have seriously not had a day without rain for nearly 3 weeks where I live.


Unfortunately, the same can not be said for those of us living on the West Coast and Central Florida. I'm glad you have your rain. Want to share?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 231822
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 0% means nothing will occur with 94L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am not diagreeing with everything only some things
I am not trying to shoot you down but it would be beneficial to you to sit back and observe what the NHC etc. says and then maybe ask some questions. That is how you learn. You are beginning to sound like the boy who cried wolf and maybe when a Cat 5 develops people won't listen to what you are saying. Nothing wrong with asking questions but the people at NHC are getting paid the big bucks for a reason.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is somebody playing?? I thought we were watching the Carribean. Not 100 miles from me...WTH??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:


Thats old look at the timestamp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anybody else get this tweet? but it shows nothing?
Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic
2 pm EDT Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued. #twoat http://hurricanes.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:

The special tropical weather outlook reflects my thinking so far...that upper winds are unfavorable for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IF anything is going to come from 94L then it would have to come off of the south east coast.Cause the caribbean just isn't allowing anything to form...Some moisture may stay behind in the caribbean and could help develop whatever the hell the GFS keeps spinning up...

Post 250 thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 304 - 254

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Pictured Rocks dunes and clouds
Grizzlies in Lake Clark National Park
Mount Redoubt Lava Dome
Matanuska Glacier