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Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Solar Eclipse
Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)
Oregon Annular

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better
The only model support is one closed isobar for one or two time frames and that is only on a few model runs. Shear is actually very high, 30-40 knots. Satellite presentation hasn't changed much.
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706. wxmod
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Sounds typical for early in the year...isn't the SAL (saharan air layer) always strongest when the African Easterly Jet just begins kicking in when the sub-Saharan land is still dry and dusty?


As the Sahara expands, it seems likely that it will inhibit east Atlantic hurricanes more and more at this time of year. This year the dust storms have been blowing strong for a couple of months.
"The Sahara is currently expanding south at a rate of up to 48 kilometers per year."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertification
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(click to enlarge)

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 upper ridge is located in honduras at around 16N 87/88W moving ENE #2lowest pressures are in the GOH near rotan hondurason caye belize


This is what I used to find lowest pressure location...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
Shows a 1010 mb center in NW Caribbean at the Guatemala/Mexico border. I will concede that the very new 00Z TAFB shows a 1009 mb center further SE toward GOH...which better matches your statement....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html
During this animation...I clicked on HDW-high...which shows 200 mb out of the west....even over GOH. Therefore...there is still westerly shear over this area. Lets see if that upper ridge axis can lift northward directly over the GOH. If it does...we will need a sustained period of that upper ridge being over the GOH for development since low surface pressures are so broadly spread.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

That west-pac storm (Sanvu) looks really cool...wish it were in the Atlantic side though....
Yeah, don't know if we will get any significant tropical developments in the Atlantic for a little while. Ensembles aren't showing much over the next two weeks, but that could change and the MJO is very weakly in our area.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better


They just messing with ya, everything you said is right, though I hate to agree because of the flooding here today and the thought of more to come, I feel bad for those affected by the weather here today, I understand some even lost there homes because of it! like they say " a rose by any other name is still a rose" Goodnight!
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XX/INV/XL
MARK
15.55N/82.33W
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Good day fellow bloggers!
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Well, good night folks! I have now discovered the joy of editing storm info on Wikipedia!
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698. JLPR2
Quoting wxmod:



I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that.


Come on dust! Give me beach weather! XD
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity - or at least a piece of it - is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low is also forecasted to get cut off by a building ridge over the east us placing it over this piece of vorticity.


Where is the eyewall?

Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol


#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I don't know why there is such a good TCFP in the W Caribbean right now? The lowest pressures are to the NW of the Caribbean upper ridge (not under the ridge)....which places is it under hostile westerly shear on the north side of this upper ridge.

As to why the lowest surface pressures are there? Because that is where upper divergence is maximal...in branching flow between the Caribbean upper ridge and a SE US upper low.

I would like to see good pressure drops directly under that upper ridge before I would consider anything in this area.

#1 upper ridge is located in honduras at around 16N 87/88W moving ENE #2lowest pressures are in the GOH near rotan hondurason caye belize
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low gets cut off by a building ridge over the east us.


Where is the eyewall?

Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol


That west-pac storm (Sanvu) looks really cool...wish it were in the Atlantic side though....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


That will inhibit tropical development.... for the moment....

Sounds typical for early in the year...isn't the SAL (saharan air layer) always strongest when the African Easterly Jet just begins kicking in when the sub-Saharan land is still dry and dusty?
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Quoting TomTaylor:



Where is the eyewall?





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687. MTWX
Quoting txjac:


Where are you at?


Columbus, MS

Tried to get some shots with my phone, but I knew that was a long shot! Really need the exposure time!
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Quoting wxmod:



I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that.


That will inhibit tropical development.... for the moment....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Prospects are very negative against anything forming in the WCARB. This is a fragile system you guys are looking at, monsoonal circulations require room and growth with at least decent environment. 40kt windshear is sitting over it, and there is absolutely no model support to indicate that this won't just dissipate on Wednesday. Interesting to look at, but unlikely to mature into anything.
Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity - or at least a piece of it - is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low is also forecasted to get cut off by a building ridge over the east us placing it over this piece of vorticity. Chances of this happening at this point are pretty low due to a lack of model support. If anything comes out of it, it would be pretty weak, like Alberto.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Depression Three-W has an eye popping out on visible imagery. This is no tropical depression anymore either.

Where is the eyewall?

Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol

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683. txjac
Quoting MTWX:
Very photogenic storm here at work right now! Unfortunately the camera is at home... :(

Got the tripod here, just not the camera!


Where are you at?
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682. MTWX
Very photogenic storm here at work right now! Unfortunately the camera is at home... :(

Got the tripod here, just not the camera!
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673. wxmod
Quoting blsealevel:
A lot of dust over their right now




I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that.
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Quoting blsealevel:
And this is intresting also




I don't know why there is such a good TCFP in the W Caribbean right now? The lowest pressures are to the NW of the Caribbean upper ridge (not under the ridge)....which places is it under hostile westerly shear on the north side of this upper ridge.

As to why the lowest surface pressures are there? Because that is where upper divergence is maximal...in branching flow between the Caribbean upper ridge and a SE US upper low.

I would like to see good pressure drops directly under that upper ridge before I would consider anything in this area.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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