Alberto weakens, brings light rains to Georgia and South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on May 20, 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to move slowly to the west-southwest off the coast of South Carolina, and is bringing light rains to the coasts northern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Recent radar and satellite loops show that Alberto has weakened late this morning, and has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. Upper level winds out of the west-southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and these winds are driving dry air into the storm, which has caused it to deteriorate. The dry air impinging on Alberto can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Yesterday, Alberto was over the warm 81°F (27°C) water of the Gulf Stream, but today, the storm has moved west of the Gulf Stream, and is now centered over cooler waters of 79°F (26°C). This gives the storm a lot less energy to power it, and as Alberto drifts farther to the west-southwest today, ocean temperatures will get even cooler. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Alberto this afternoon.


Figure 1. Late morning visible satellite image of Alberto.

Forecast for Alberto
Sporadic rain showers from Alberto are likely to affect the Georgia and South Carolina coasts today, and the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina on Monday. The heaviest rains and tropical storm-force winds should remain offshore, but even if Alberto did make landfall, the storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will be generally less than an inch over land areas, which will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief. Wind shear is expected to increase to the high range, 30 - 40 knots, tonight through Monday, which should be able to rapidly disrupt a storm as small as Alberto. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Monday morning, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday night which should lift the storm out to the northeast. NHC is giving Alberto a less than 5% chance of reaching hurricane strength. Alberto should cause little or no damage to the coast, except perhaps for some coastal erosion due to high waves.


Figure 2. Late morning total rainfall image of Alberto from the Charleston, SC radar. Alberto's rains have been less than one inch along the coast, and most of the rain has fallen offshore.


Figure 3. Late morning radar image of Alberto from the Charleston, SC radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Eclipse is going to go down pretty soon here...my kids are outside with a camera thinking they're going to film it. I can't tell em anything because they know EVERYTHING. Tell em a thousand times not to look...but you know me, I'm STUPID. Better stay sober til after this thing goes down because I would hate to have to take em to the emergency room when I have had a few glasses of vino.

Perfectly clear day for it too. No overcast, stunning.

Happy day everyone.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
PRE 94L in the GOH need to be watched as convection is growing plus the upperlevel anticyclone is now movin NE to honduras via CIMSS shear map causing shear to fall in the area 850 vort has grown in thearea as well with the 925 vort pressures have fallen plus Ascat plus Oscat and surface obs show the circulation is near to rotan honduras


I have to agree, if this trend continue, I suspect a 20% yellow circle in that area by 8 am tomorrow!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8885
Quoting K8eCane:Very Traumatic! Rip Current Almost Took My Mother Out To Sea Once. Lifeguard Saved Her. And Its Important To Realize You Can Be Fine And Having Fun One Minute And The Next Minute A Force Known As A Rip Current Has Total Control Of You
The fear of drowning kills more than any rip current. I tested myself beyond the surf zone and I found that my body floats in salt water. Without moving I can take a deep breath and float with my head above water. I think this partly depends on body type, but still most humans are very close to the density of ocean saltwater give or take. I know for me just so I do not panic and try to fight a strong current I can always just float and then take my time swimming parallel to the rip current, then back into shore on the return current.

If you panic and try to fight the current you will lose your breath and probably drown.
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532. xcool
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 4N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THE
WAVE IS HOWEVER VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
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Fukushima Update:


Trillions of becquerels per day still being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi Radioactive steam continues
(VIDEO)

Published: May 20th, 2012 at 12:12 pm ET
If You Love This Planet Radio


I would say there are billions, actually trillions, of becquerels per day being released airborne, mainly from Units 2 and 3.

Actually on cold nights you can still the steam coming off those reactors, its not just steam its radioactive steam.

Something on the order of trillions of becquerels per day trillions of disintegrations per second per day are being released even now.


Dr. Helen Caldicott: So what you%u2019re really saying Arnie Gundersen is that the ocean will continue to be contaminated, kind of for the rest of time. Because there%s no foreseeable way to prevent water leaking out of containment vessels continuously into the ocean We are talking about continual contamination of the Pacific Ocean.
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Looks like a new EPAC system in the near future.

FULL IMAGE

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16297
PRE 94L in the GOH need to be watched as convection is growing plus the upperlevel anticyclone is now movin NE to honduras via CIMSS shear map causing shear to fall in the area 850 vort has grown in thearea as well with the 925 vort pressures have fallen plus Ascat plus Oscat and surface obs show the circulation is near to rotan honduras
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Quoting Ameister12:

Oh. That's a huge shame. =(
Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9427
**GRAPHICS UPDATE**
(click to magnify graphics; graphics can further be magnified in Link window)
Seems we'll have Bud to track right behind Alberto. In fact, ever since the formation of Aletta, we've had a named storm to track every day.
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Even though convection has significantly waned, there's still a well defined COC and it's pretty cool to look at on visible.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6991
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Thanks for that one Keeper.
Nasty little cluster of the East coast of Japan and about opposite it, from a longitude degrees point of view, is the nasty little cluster in the North of Italy.
I don't like the look of these '2'
Hasta Manana.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We have a limited supply of cookies this season. I'm afraid we don't give those out for correctly guessing percentages anymore.

Oh. That's a huge shame. =(
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
Quoting GTcooliebai:
RIP Alberto?

Don't think ur fork will come away quite clean, but it's pretty close.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 26816
Quoting Ameister12:
92E is up to 80%.

Nigel deserves a cookie for guessing 92E's percent correctly. =D

We have a limited supply of cookies this season. I'm afraid we don't give those out for correctly guessing percentages anymore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
We should have Bud by Monday
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9427
92E is up to 80%.

Nigel deserves a cookie for guessing 92E's percent correctly. =D
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Only a matter of time before we see Bud. What a name for a storm.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 93 Comments: 8901
RIP Alberto?

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Now that I'm back on my laptop (thank goodness!), I can look at satellites and everything else easily.

This will be a tropical depression in the morning if current trends continue.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It may be higher at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.
Maybe 80%
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9427
the 18Z Nogaps calling for the bahamas storm as well..

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Quoting Ameister12:
92E up to 60%! It really got going today.

It may be higher at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35756
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi Baha, that area has been quite persistent all day, I think it deserves at least a 10% yellow circle at 7CST.
I gotta agree, some insane cloudtops in that area all day.... thing is, other stuff in not in place as yet. I certainly am watching this area with interest, since anything that DOES form has equal chances of tracking off to the NW in to the GOM and of heading NE over Cuba and the Bahamas. Whatever it turns into, it'll be bringing all that WCar moisture / heat energy with it...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 26816
Quoting Patrap:


Today's eclipse is a Annular one with the Moon not quite covering the Sun's Disk leaving a annulus appearance,due to the Moon being closer to the Earth.



Actually, we're near apogee.

The moon is farther from the Earth, and so it appears smaller, blocking less sun light, which you can show using basic geometry why this is the case.

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Quoting Patrap:


Today's eclipse is a Annular one with the Moon not quite covering the Sun's Disk leaving a annulus appearance,due to the Moon being closer to the Earth.

i know that was quoted from an ap item
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Today's eclipse is a Annular one with the Moon not quite covering the Sun's Disk leaving a annulus appearance,due to the Moon being closer to the Earth.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Is some thing going to form in the West Pac?
Probability of TC formation shows something.

And do you think anything will form in the NW Carib?
It is on the CMC and on the Prob of TC formation slightly as well.
According to the bulletin MAwxboy posted, it should have a red circle on it...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 26816
Quoting Tazmanian:
if i lived in MX i would be watching 92E right now
we got a bit before it gets there
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Quoting BahaHurican:


Hi Baha, that area has been quite persistent all day, I think it deserves at least a 10% yellow circle at 7CST.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8885
if i lived in MX i would be watching 92E right now
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As far I can tell 92E is probably a TD already, maybe a TS.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8885
Quoting BahaHurican:
a speck of white -90
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498. j2008
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


thanks i would like that
i don't get more than 10 percent
iam not even going to look
sun just dipped below the building
to my north west

wow yea I think we are getting 85-90% so I will try to get the best images that I can.
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92E up to 60%! It really got going today.
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Quoting j2008:
I'll try to get a few pics of todays when it happens in a couple hours.


thanks i would like that
i don't get more than 10 percent
iam not even going to look
sun just dipped below the building
to my north west

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Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 26816
ware a lifejacket if your not a good swimmer
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493. j2008
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Photo credit: AP | An example of what Sunday's eclipse will look like is provided by this image of the sun being eclipsed by the moon back on Aug. 11, 1999
I'll try to get a few pics of todays when it happens in a couple hours.
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Photo credit: AP | An example of what Sunday's eclipse will look like is provided by this image of the sun being eclipsed by the moon back on Aug. 11, 1999
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I know it was mentioned earlier on the blog today but there have been a ton of moderate (M4.0-6.0) earthquakes off Japan over the past 2 or 3 days... Just in the last hour they've had a 4.6 and a 5.2

It will be worth keeping any dormant eyes you have got on this little anomaly in the Japan area as it may have far reaching and possibly catastrophic consequences! The aerial scrap pile of very dangerous radio active metals might just fall, a bit like the "Ten Green,(Glow in the Dark,) Bottles."
Realism is a much neglected feature of humanity.
Speculation is best ignored at base level, whilst information is best revered and confirmed.
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Quoting TuMama:


Oh that is awful! Was it drug over does?

long battle with cancer!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8885
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Quoting stormpetrol:
OFF topic -Robin Gibb of the Bee Gees has died! sad!
That is sad. I think there is only one brother left.
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OFF topic -Robin Gibb of the Bee Gees has died! sad!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8885
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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