95L drenches Florida; floods kill 84 in Central America; huge dust storm hits TX

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:43 PM GMT on October 18, 2011

A large low pressure system off the Florida Gulf Coast, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Southwest Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.80" as of 9 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility has recorded 14.41", and 14.78" fell on Sugarloaf Key. Key West has experienced other rain events with far more precipitation; their all-time 24-hour rainfall is 23.28", set on November 11, 1980. Interestingly, this is more rain than fell in the entire year of 1974, when Key West received only 19.99".

Rains of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows that the rain has now pushed north of the Keys, and the region between Naples and Fort Myers is getting the heaviest rains. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but the system is disorganized and has been stretched by wind shear. With wind shear now a high 20 - 30 knots over 95L, development is unlikely, and NHC has dropped their odds of it developing into a tropical depression to 10%. 95L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 3 inches to Southwest Florida today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Florida in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, including the possibility of isolated tornadoes.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of an interesting 50 km-wide vortex near the north coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that became the center of 95L late yesterday afternoon. Image taken at 1:45 pm EDT October 17, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains kill 84 in Central America
A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 84 people, with 9 missing, according to media reports. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 32 and 31 people killed, respectively. Another 13 have died in Honduras, and 8 in Nicaragua. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Since the beginning of October, the region near the coast on the Guatemala/El Salvador border has received over 800 mm (31.50") of rain, according to Norman Avila of climaya.com, a Guatemalan weather web site.


Figure 2. Visible satellite animation of the Texas South Plains dust storm of October 17, 2011. Image credit: NWS Lubbock.

Massive dust storm sweeps through the Texas Panhandle
It was a very bad afternoon rush hour yesterday in the Texas Panhandle. A powerful cold front pushed through the state during the afternoon, and damaging north winds behind the front whipped up a dangerous dust storm that cut visibility to near-zero during the afternoon rush hour. Lubbock recorded sustained winds of 48 mph, gusting to 63 mph, with a visibility of 0.2 miles in heavy dust at 5:36 pm CDT. The dust storm was reminiscent of the great dust storms of the 1930s dust bowl era, and was due to the ongoing exceptional drought. Unfortunately, the front brought no rain to the area, and Lubbock has received just 3.16" of rain so far in 2011--more than 13.50" below average. In his Climate Abyss blog, Texas's state climatologist, John Nielsen-Gammon, gives a 25% that the current drought will last five more years. He has an interesting post on how global warming may have affected the drought. He concludes:

Precipitation: The balance of evidence does not support the assertion that the rainfall deficit since October 2010 was made larger or more likely by global warming.

Temperature: Compared to long-term averages of summer temperature, the rainfall deficit accounted for about 4°F of excess heat and global warming accounted for about 1°F of excess heat. Warmer temperatures lead to greater water demand, faster evaporation, and greater drying-out of potential fuels for fire. Thus, the impacts of the drought were enhanced by global warming, much of which has been caused by man.


Video 1. Video of the October 17, 2011 dust storm in Lubbock, Texas.

Jeff Masters

Invest 95L (oneshotww)
We received rain most of the day yesterday and again today from Invest 95L. The visibility and flooding were pretty bad during the evening commute home. My street is totally under water. Most folks had enough sense to drive slow as conditions made it necessary to take it easy.
Invest 95L
Invest 95L - My Street (oneshotww)
This is my street - it was slow going to get home. I don't recall ever driving thru so much and such deep water before. At times, it was tough to tell where the road was. We received rain most of the day yesterday and again today from Invest 95L. The visibility and flooding were pretty bad during the evening commute home. My street is totally under water. Most folks had enough sense to drive slow as conditions made it necessary to take it easy.
Invest 95L - My Street

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Maybe I'm not looking right at the satellite and the big blob of NASTY weather moving East toward South Florida in my opinion,I just don't see how South FLorida will be able to miss all this very nasty weather today this huge blob is almost over us here in Miami,I heard that tonite is going to be a very rough night here in Miami,Gales forces winds in excess of 60 miles per hour etc.Any comments about this event,and what we can expect later today ,our daughter have a class tonite and will like to know if it will be better to cancel it if all this bad weather is coming our way.Thank you
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like my assessment yesterday was right, as much as I didn't want it to happen, and I wanted to see a lot of activity, it looks like Tampa Bay is missing another widespread event, as it always does.


It was interesting, that when I watched all the local channels this morning, all the computer models were showing all the heavy rain already over Tampa Bay. The forecasters should have then noticed the models are flawed and a new forecast must be concluded.

I don't know why this is, but when models are not in agreement, forecasters are willing to change the forecast. However I noticed that if there is any model agreement, forecasters refuse to change the forecast if all the model are getting it wrong.

There needs to be change in forecasting philosophy. Because I have seen Tampa Bay missed time and time again by large scale weather systems.

The forecast is 100% of showers and thunderstorms, some being severe, rainfall expected to be 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts.

That is not going to happen, all of it will slide south of us into south Florida and the keys.


I saw this coming yesterday, but when every forecaster agreed the bulk of the weather would lift into Central Florida, I didn't want to go against everyone.


You know what? I know nothing about weather forcasting and will never claim to but I usually just go with my gut on thses things. I know that sounds REALLY stupid but my hubby and kids laugh becuase I am usually right! I didn't think this would happen. I asked alot of questions here to get my "gut feeling" but Tampa always gets missed. Time and time again as you said. Oh well. I didnt want a severe storm anyway. So, I got what I wanted. =]
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Looks like my assessment yesterday was right, as much as I didn't want it to happen, and I wanted to see a lot of activity, it looks like Tampa Bay is missing another widespread event, as it often does. Not always, but most of the time. We usually get all our significant weather from localized events.


It was interesting, that when I watched all the local channels this morning, all the computer models were showing all the heavy rain already over Tampa Bay. The forecasters should have then noticed the models are flawed and a new forecast must be concluded.

I don't know why this is, but when models are not in agreement, forecasters are willing to change the forecast. However I noticed that if there is any model agreement, forecasters refuse to change the forecast if all the model are getting it wrong.

There needs to be change in forecasting philosophy. Because I have seen Tampa Bay missed time and time again by large scale weather systems.

The forecast is 100% of showers and thunderstorms, some being severe, rainfall expected to be 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts.

That is not going to happen, all of it will slide south of us into south Florida and the keys.


I saw this coming yesterday, but when every forecaster agreed the bulk of the weather would lift into Central Florida, I didn't want to go against everyone.
\

Congrats to anyone else who saw this yesterday as well!
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New T-Storms should fire as the low approaches the coastline this evening and tonight.

Windfield will be more vast.. most areas 15-25mph except near the coast 20-35mph and higher in any cells.

This wont be a wind event really and the highest winds stay around 850mb range above the surface..but isolated torandoes will be possible. Sarasota,Manentee counties might come out of this with only .5 inches of rain or less before the front comes down and gives a extra .10-.25 inches only as the will be more of a dry slot middle ground.. but kinda hard to tell.
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Tampa


Tallahassee


New Orleans
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35 TropicTraveler "...Anyhow - I agree with Cotillion. It's been a truly weird year in every way. Never seen one quite like it."
56 Neapolitan "...I agree with Cotillion, too: 2011 has been a year of extreme--and extremely strange--weather all over the globe, and not just in the tropics."

Weird enough that I'm more-than-halfway expecting hurricane-level rainfall&flooding followed by a (comparatively)dry(nearly)naked TropicalCyclone...
...if 95L doesn't blow itself out before reaching land. Its travel-speed is already approaching its spin-speed, ie half of it's MaximumSustainedWinds.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
Look at the dry slot starting with the boomer near the panhandle from the WV loop above......WOW ......here we go with the severe weather.


Yes, and that is what will give the area from the Tampa Bay area and northward its rain, starting later today and into tomorrow AM.

But more importantly, there may well be a significant tornado threat with this setup.
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:


I don't understand the turning off of your headlights part.


the headlights in dust creates glare like crazy........if you turn your off those that have theirs on have a better chance of seeing you because you are not causing a glare in their face. Sorta like high beam lights in a fog bank vs. fog lights.
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Quoting kwgirl:
That's so people don't see the headlights in the storm and think it is the road and plow into you.


I don't know why everyone is criticizing you for that. Sounds logical to me. I think I would prefer not getting plowed into. Lol
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I am in Tampa and this is what our Chief Meteorologist just posted on his facebook page.....


"As I mentioned on the big 10pm Newscast last night, it looks like the heaviest rain will be from Tampa south. Cold front may produce some heavier activity later tonight. As of right now, this does not look like it will be a big deal".


I guess im going to log off WU. If its not gonna be a big deal then I'm not gonna worry about it anymore. =]]
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:


I don't understand the turning off of your headlights part.
That's so people don't see the headlights in the storm and think it is the road and plow into you.
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LOOK at the Storms popping in the dry air slot.........WOW!
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Quoting TropicTraveler:


We have a stretch of highway on I-10 in Arizona that gets these dust storms with some regularity - dusty desert on both sides of the road penned in by mountains. Big car pile ups as it will suddenly get totally dark. Only safe thing is to pull way off the road and turn off your lights and pray someone doesn't pile into you.


I don't understand the turning off of your headlights part.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Scott..........what is your thoughts on Wind field....as we know it depends on high deep the Low develops before moving over Florida.
Still ENE wind in Naples.

No wind switch to the S as expected yet...


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SNOW SNOW SNOW.....LOL
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Quoting Klolly23:

It will be interesting to see if the rain shield keeps moving NE or comes to a hault and starts pulling more N.... Anyones thoughts....
it will start moving further north as the upper level low over the midwest approaches from the west... Look at the wv of the Gulf and watch the trough dive into view.
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Quoting MahFL:
I still don't see how the low is supposed to come over N FL tonight, it's hardly moving.



I don't get it either! who knows
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Good Morning. The apparent lower trajectory of the low is a function of the timing of the frontal passage; it was always a race between the low and front as to when it would get absorbed and "where" it would be swept across Florida. Still a huge rainmaker for the entire Peninsula but not sure how much of the heavier rain will get up to the Big Bend where I am located but Central Florida appears to be in the bull's eye at the moment. Technically, you could argue that the storm "bubble" over Tampa is still intact, but they are going to still feel a huge impact from rain on this one.
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I have seen this before, but just speculating. We have seen a Barcolonic Low vent a Surface Low and seen the surface Low intensify before........this still could happen with the Combination of the two.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Everyone is jumping to conclusions.

The Baroclinic low is just starting to develop around 25.5N and 87W and starting to pull ENE... the old LLC is getting pulled ENE and will move more NE and get absorbed into the Baroclinic low later tonight. The Baroclinic low will move inland from Clearwater-Cedar Key area late tonight. Ahead and south of this will be a heavy area of rainfall and some gusty winds..especially from Citrus county southward. There could be some isolated tornadoes in a couple heavier cells cause there will a lot of turning in the lower-mid levels. The Baroclinic low will continue to deepen around 997mb once crossing Florida to 994 off S Carolina later Weds.. cold front will come down on Weds and bring much cooler air 10-15dg below normal for most of the state



I see that too.





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Quoting scottsvb:
Everyone is jumping to conclusions.

The Baroclinic low is just starting to develop around 25.5N and 87W and starting to pull ENE... the old LLC is getting pulled ENE and will move more NE and get absorbed into the Baroclinic low later tonight. The Baroclinic low will move inland from Clearwater-Cedar Key area late tonight. Ahead and south of this will be a heavy area of rainfall and some gusty winds..especially from Citrus county southward. There could be some isolated tornadoes in a couple heavier cells cause there will a lot of turning in the lower-mid levels. The Baroclinic low will continue to deepen around 997mb once crossing Florida to 994 off S Carolina later Weds.. cold front will come down on Weds and bring much cooler air 10-15dg below normal for most of the state




Scott..........what is your thoughts on Wind field....as we know it depends on high deep the Low develops before moving over Florida.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Everyone is jumping to conclusions.

The Baroclinic low is just starting to develop around 25.5N and 87W and starting to pull ENE... the old LLC is getting pulled ENE and will move more NE and get absorbed into the Baroclinic low later tonight. The Baroclinic low will move inland from Clearwater-Cedar Key area late tonight. Ahead and south of this will be a heavy area of rainfall and some gusty winds..especially from Citrus county southward. There could be some isolated tornadoes in a couple heavier cells cause there will a lot of turning in the lower-mid levels. The Baroclinic low will continue to deepen around 997mb once crossing Florida to 994 off S Carolina later Weds.. cold front will come down on Weds and bring much cooler air 10-15dg below normal for most of the state




Right on Scott'O.........you always clean things up.....Ya i was just saying you can see the Bar. Low forming nearly in the exact spot you said yesterday.....GOOD CALL!
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Even the BAM models have moved further NOrth......interesting to see if they are correct.

It will be interesting to see if the rain shield keeps moving NE or comes to a hault and starts pulling more N.... Anyones thoughts....
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Still can't believe how deep the front is getting this early in the season. It's pretty exciting to see! We have some major weather Phenomenon happening. Reminds me a little of Wilma. Same scenario with the front and all.
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52 AussieStorm "We can have excessively high SST's and TCHP but if the atmosphere isn't conducive then nothing will happen. Hence this season, Look at the Carib and GOM in the loops I posted earlier. Yet 95L has not developed beyond being an invest."

True dat: something all of us learned from the big fuss over last year's early season SSTs/etc. Which is probably why there hasn't been any fuss over this year's less impressive SeaSurfaceTemperatures/etc.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Everyone is jumping to conclusions.

The Baroclinic low is just starting to develop around 25.5N and 87W and starting to pull ENE... the old LLC is getting pulled ENE and will move more NE and get absorbed into the Baroclinic low later tonight. The Baroclinic low will move inland from Clearwater-Cedar Key area late tonight. Ahead and south of this will be a heavy area of rainfall and some gusty winds..especially from Citrus county southward. There could be some isolated tornadoes in a couple heavier cells cause there will a lot of turning in the lower-mid levels. The Baroclinic low will continue to deepen around 997mb once crossing Florida to 994 off S Carolina later Weds.. cold front will come down on Weds and bring much cooler air 10-15dg below normal for most of the state

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The Orlando area is MY SEVERE WEATHER Spot in my opinion!
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I still don't see how the low is supposed to come over N FL tonight, it's hardly moving.
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Look at the dry slot starting with the boomer near the panhandle from the WV loop above......WOW ......here we go with the severe weather.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



If you agree with the models the models are now pulling the thing further NOrth than yesterday......but the advancement of the cold front is coming.....seems the greater mositure should stay just south of Tampa!


Yes I agree.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:


We have a stretch of highway on I-10 in Arizona that gets these dust storms with some regularity - dusty desert on both sides of the road penned in by mountains. Big car pile ups as it will suddenly get totally dark. Only safe thing is to pull way off the road and turn off your lights and pray someone doesn't pile into you.


Why do you turn off your lights ?
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here comes that collision.....this is gonna explode in that dry slot......Watch out!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

What you say holds some truth. But given that the person in question posted the exact same insult-laden, "Hey, I desperately need attention!" rant on the previous blog entry, I think this one's difficult to just blame on someone having a bad day.

Anyway, yes, I agree with Cotillion, too: 2011 has been a year of extreme--and extremely strange--weather all over the globe, and not just in the tropics.


global warming possibly?
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Should be late this evening.......


thanks!



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Even the BAM models have moved further NOrth......interesting to see if they are correct.
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Quoting Patrap:
Haboob's are sweet to watch.




We have a stretch of highway on I-10 in Arizona that gets these dust storms with some regularity - dusty desert on both sides of the road penned in by mountains. Big car pile ups as it will suddenly get totally dark. Only safe thing is to pull way off the road and turn off your lights and pray someone doesn't pile into you.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Should be late this evening.......NINJA my Neighbor girl....i suggest you stay at work and send your hubby over to my house for a party......LOL


HA HA!!! Very funny! =]
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Quoting E46Pilot:


According to the current radar, most of the rain will bypass Tampa to the south. Looks like Fort Myers area will get most of it.



If you agree with the models the models are now pulling the thing further NOrth than yesterday......but the advancement of the cold front is coming.....seems the greater mositure should stay just south of Tampa!
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Quoting ITCZmike:
What ever happened to all the bologna talk about "ANYTHING that gets into the hot waters of the Gulf this year is absolutely gonna explode". Ha. Look at Don. Look at this piece of garbage at 95L. Any questions?

And, and the kicker is I have not seen a SST map of TCHP for weeks now. Hmmm? I wonder why? Does it have something to do that the water are cooling down substantially? Ding! Ding! Ding! 20 points for you.

Bunch of doom-casters on here. They read the terrain, sit around for the perfect scenario with their mouths dripping wide open, and then pounce on anything they can get their hands on to fulfil their sick wishes of destruction. TampaSpin, TropicalAnalyst, kmanislander, CyberTeddy. Anyone home?

Truly sad.


Most of the people here are very good people. I think it is unfair to label them as "doomcasters" because they are enthusiastic about following and speculating upon the development of tropical weather systems.

Sometimes storms develop to the maximum possible extent and sometimes they fizzle altogether. Most times a scenario in between those two extremes results. But in the meantime, there is no harm in people offering their opinions and insights on a tropical weather blog.

On the other hand, you do make a good point about the sea surface temperatures. I have noticed that many often overlook that particular factor late in the season and when speculating about possible GOM tropical systems. It is in the Gulf where the SSTs drop fastest in October and this has a great bearing on what will develop there and how it will affect areas of the US Gulf coast. Without SSTs in the Gulf well above 80F you are not going to see rapid development of a tropical cyclone, no matter how favorable other factors may be.

In this specific case though and with 95L, it is not the sea surface temperatures that have been the inhibiting factor but rather it is the upper air wind pattern. In short, there was too much shear for this storm to get going and too much dry air to the north of it.

As I have said before, had this same situation happened just a couple of weeks earlier that it did, or especially a month earlier, the outcome would likely have been vastly different.
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wow thank you tampa dang near freezing so maybe in the upper 30
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Quoting stormtopz1:


thank you, i am in north tampa area. when can i expect the 50 mph wind to get here and for how long?
Quoting Littleninjagrl:
I'm wondering what time this will reach Tampa as well. Im trying to decide if I should let my son stay at practice today or go home at regular time today? Any one know? TampaSpin???



Should be late this evening.......NINJA my Neighbor girl....i suggest you stay at work and send your hubby over to my house for a party......LOL
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Quoting TropicTraveler:
I'm slow to label anyone a troll. Sometimes people are just having a bad day and they let the anger out where at least someone is listening. A while back we had that outbreak of a dozen or so a day - now that was a little different. Those were deliberate incitements without any real logic.

Anyhow - I agree with Cotillion. It's been a truly weird year in every way. Never seen one quite like it.

What you say holds some truth. But given that the person in question posted the exact same insult-laden, "Hey, I desperately need attention!" rant on the previous blog entry, I think this one's difficult to just blame on someone having a bad day.

Anyway, yes, I agree with Cotillion, too: 2011 has been a year of extreme--and extremely strange--weather all over the globe, and not just in the tropics.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:
I'm slow to label anyone a troll. Sometimes people are just having a bad day and they let the anger out where at least someone is listening. A while back we had that outbreak of a dozen or so a day - now that was a little different. Those were deliberate incitements without any real logic.

Anyhow - I agree with Cotillion. It's been a truly weird year in every way. Never seen one quite like it.


Yeah, it's best not to use the word 'troll' lightly, sometimes it's overused and ends up being a synonym of 'someone I disagree with'.

As this year comes to a close, guess we'll see what next year has to bring.

Wonder for us if we'll have a third straight 'proper' winter as the last two were surprisingly cold (part of the surprise being that the winter of 08/09 was so mild to be a 'non-winter winter' so a bit of shift).
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Quoting Littleninjagrl:
I'm wondering what time this will reach Tampa as well. Im trying to decide if I should let my son stay at practice today or go home at regular time today? Any one know? TampaSpin???


According to the current radar, most of the rain will bypass Tampa to the south. Looks like Fort Myers area will get most of it.
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Quoting floridafisherman:
why do ppl feel the need to quote the trolls (example: itczmike)?

put them on ignore, they have NOTHING good to offer this blog. all they do is try to start trouble.



Well said! You give them exactly what they're looking for when you quote or respond to them. Any kind of attention should NOT be given.
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Quoting aspectre:
Just for the record, ITCZmike should try reading this forum.
I can't remember much mention by any WUber of excessively high SeaSurfaceTemperatures/etc affecting TropicalCyclone development this year.

We can have excessively high SST's and TCHP but if the atmosphere isn't conducive then nothing will happen. Hence this season, Look at the Carib and GOM in the loops I posted earlier. Yet 95L has not developed beyond being an invest.
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I'm wondering what time this will reach Tampa as well. Im trying to decide if I should let my son stay at practice today or go home at regular time today? Any one know? TampaSpin???
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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