Irene pounds the Dominican Republic, heads for the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2011

Hurricane Irene is pounding the north coast of the Dominican Republic this morning with tropical storm-force winds and torrential rains, as the storm continues to head west-northwest towards the Bahama Islands. Puerto Plata on the north coast of the Dominican Republic reported sustained winds of 58 mph at 5am local time this morning, with heavy rain. In the Turks and Caicos Islands ahead of Irene, winds have gusted to 42 - 49 mph this morning on Providenciales at personal weather stations at the Regent Grand and at Pine Cay. The latest hurricane hunter eye report at 10:38am EDT found a central pressure of 980 mb, and top surface winds of 85 mph using their SFMR instrument. The plane had not finished sampling the storm yet.

Yesterday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, reaching hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. No deaths or major injuries have been reported thus far from the islands, though the storm knocked out power to 1 million residents of Puerto Rico, including the entire island Vieques; 28% of Puerto Rico had no running water Monday afternoon. Billionaire Richard Branson's 8-bedroom mansion on private Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands was hit by lightning during the storm and burned down, and Branson relates on his blog how actress Kate Winslett had to carry out his 90-year-old mother from the main house to safety. Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from Irene, though the main danger comes today as the storm makes its closest approach to Haiti.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene, showing a hint of an eye starting to pop out.

Track forecast for Irene
Yesterday's dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet helped significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the Turks and Caicos islands today, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts. One reliable model, the UKMET, takes Irene into South Carolina, while several others have the hurricane missing the Southeast U.S. completely, passing just offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday. The official NHC forecast of a landfall along the North Carolina coast is a reasonable compromise, though with the models trending more eastwards of late, I would favor a landfall farther east than NHC is predicting. Irene will continue north or curve northeast after its encounter with North Carolina, and the hurricane could be a dangerous and destructive storm for the entire mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (8am EDT) runs of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 27 nm
24 hours: 44 nm
36 hours: 64 nm
48 hours: 81 nm
72 hours: 137 nm
96 hours: 201 nm
120 hours: 308 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 59 nm
36 hours: 79 nm
48 hours: 98 nm
72 hours: 144 nm
96 hours: 190 nm
120 hours: 239 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Irene are better than average over the 1 - 3 day time period, and worse than average for 4 - 5 days. Note the error estimate of 308 nm (355 miles) for today's 5-day forecast. That's more than the distance from New York City to Boston, suggesting that we really don't know what portions of New England might be at most risk from Irene. It is still quite possible the core of the hurricane could miss New England.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest microwave data suggests that Irene does not have full eyewall; a gap exists in the southwest side. With wind shear now a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Irene may have trouble intensifying today. The hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next four days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 3 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by wind shear. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where the presence of Hispaniola is interfering with development. Once Irene pulls away from Hispaniola tonight, intensification is more likely.

Irene's impact on the Turks and Caicos Islands
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the Turks and Caicos Islands, which form the southeastern portion of the Bahama Islands chain. The last hurricane to affect the Turks and Caicos islands was Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike's northern eyewall devastated Grand Turk, Salt Cay, South Caicos, and a few other smaller cays when the storm was at Category 4 strength. Ike then weakened slightly to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds before making a direct hit on Great Inagua Island. Approximately 70-80% of the houses on Great Inagua Island sustained roof damage, and 25% had major damage or were destroyed. The Morton Salt factory on the island was forced to halt operations as Ike damaged its offices and loading docks. A few West Indian flamingos were killed by Ike but most of the 50,000 flamingos in Inagua National Park--the world's largest colony--survived by taking shelter within the park's mangroves or flying to other islands. Risk Management Solutions estimates that total damage costs are between $50 and $200 million (USD) for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Irene will be weaker than Ike, so will not do as much damage. The main threat from Irene will be wind damage.


Figure 2. The path of Hurricane Ike of 2008 took it through the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds (pink colors).

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene will pass through the length of the Bahama Island chain and cause widespread destruction on those islands unfortunate enough to encounter the storm's right front eyewall. Currently, it appears that Crooked, Cat, Exuma, Eleuthera, and Abaco Islands are all in danger of experiencing the eyewall of Irene, which will be capable of bringing storm surges of 9 - 13 feet. The current forecast puts the Bahamas' two most developed islands--New Providence and Grand Bahama--on the weaker west side of Irene, where Category 1 hurricane winds are likely. These winds will likely cause considerable but not devastating damage. Irene will come very close to the capital city of Nassau on New Providence Island on Thursday morning, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas. Nassau has received direct hits from three major hurricanes since 1851--the Category 4 Nassau Hurricane of 1926, which killed 287 people, a Category 4 hurricane in 1866 that killed 387 people, and a Category 3 hurricane in August 1949. The island is vulnerable to high storm surges--a ten-foot storm surge is theoretically possible on the south shore of Nassau in a Category 3 hurricane. However, the south shore of the island is relatively undeveloped, and the city of Nassau and Paradise Island are mostly higher than ten feet in elevation. A much higher storm surge of 20 feet is possible along the southwest shore of Exuma Island, but again, this shore is not heavily developed.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120 - 125 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 3 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image.

Irene a potential multi-billion dollar disaster for New England and the mid-Atlantic
Though it is still possible the core of Irene will miss the U.S., the current NHC official forecast would mean that Irene would bring destructive flash flooding, significant beach damage, and widespread power outages due to tree damage along the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine, costing several billion dollars. If Irene ends up skirting the Outer Banks of North Carolina and not significantly weakening, then plowing through the mid-Atlantic and New England states as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, it could become one of the ten most damaging hurricanes in history. The latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model puts Irene ashore in Southeast Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon as a large storm with a central pressure of 974 mb. The latest run of the ECMWF model has Irene with a central pressure of 964 mb over Chesapeake Bay, and 972 mb over New Jersey. These central pressures correspond to strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane strengths, and are similar to what Hurricane Floyd or 1999 had when it moved up the mid-Atlantic coast after hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Floyd was the 14th most damaging hurricane in history, with total damages estimated at $9.2 billion (2010 dollars.) Most of the damage was in North Carolina, which experienced its worst flooding on record. If the GFS and ECMWF models are correct, Irene could easily be a $10 billion hurricane, causing widespread damage along a long section of heavily populated coast. The most damaging Northeast U.S. hurricane of all time was Hurricane Agnes of 1972, with damages estimated at $11.8 billion (2010 dollars.) Currently, it appears that Irene will hit North Carolina on Saturday, and New England on Sunday. I strongly urge all residents of the coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts to assess their hurricane preparedness immediately, and anticipate the possibility of hurricane conditions this weekend.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves far out in the eastern Atlantic, Invest 90L and Invest 98L, that NHC is giving 20% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. At present, the long-range models are showing that both of these disturbances will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Texas/Oklahoma heat wave sets all-time 100° records
The unprecedented heat wave gripping Texas and Oklahoma set several new all-time heat records yesterday. The high temperature hit 101° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, the 22nd consecutive day of 100°+ heat and 33rd day of 100°+ heat in the city. Both are all-time records for the city. Oklahoma City recorded its 51st day of 100°+ temperatures yesterday, breaking the record for most such days in year, set previously in 1980. Temperature records for Oklahoma City date back to 1891.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
Ragged eye of Irene
Hurricane Irene
Tragic (rlwhipkey)
This is the scene around Lake Sam Rayburn. Dead fish every 20 yards or so and dead fresh water clams everywhere. The lake is 11 feet low and is losing about an inch a day.
Tragic

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting ringeaux:


Well said. I've actually been a member here since 2004 and have only made about 20-30 posts. I enjoy reading discussions, but always go back to see what NHC has to say. I may take you up on that po-boy, tho. --Baton Rouge...


Deal!
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Quoting asgolfr999:


Lemme get dis one press

ahem....

Who gives a f****g f**k

Thankyou for your attention


excuse me but i was in defense of Press and Portlight, re-read that post...the INC that was in question HAS to be there even tho most people consider that addition to mean profit, it does not in the consideration of PORTLIGHT...and btw...i have been involved in Portlight...even taken supplies to Press' location for them to be distributed so back off
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.

"Man, Mother Nature's right irked at Virginia, isn't she?"

No kidding. The smoke has been annoying. The earthquake didn't do any damage at my house but it was enough to chase me outside. The 8am Sunday position of Irene is right out my door. Not good.
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Quoting charlottefl:
From fox news:

"There is reportedly concern that the Washington Monument is tilting."

I don't know if any of you have even been to the Washington Monument, but it's this giant thing that dwarfs you the closer you get to it. I'm in Jersey, and I am still rattled. Now comes Irene.
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Quoting presslord:
an organization cannot even apply for 501c3 non profit status until it has been duly incorporated.......that's about as elemental as I'm gonna be able to get...
,no need to defend the good you do press,life's legacy is about the impact we make on our world good or bad,in short the world need smore people of your character and thank you for the work you do to better your fellow man and woman
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Quoting palmbaywhoo:

For an area that hasn't seen an earthquake that strong ever, yes it is a major.
I dont see us laughing at PR for not handling a silly TS very well....


Also, if the epicenter is downtown a major city with tall buildings or if it's not to deep in the ground, that will count...
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Oh gosh, a closed eyewall...Now RI might take place once Irene moves a good ways away from Hispaniola. I dread that here in NC

Link
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I wonder if that's a rumor or true.


Maybe Fox is trying to help out since they are fair and BALANCED! =)
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Quoting padirescu:
I have a question for the more educated posters on here. In looking at the steering layers, is there a general rule of thumb as to which layer is the predominant steering layer based on strength of the system? In other words, for a weak TS is the 700-850mb layer more predominant while the 400-850mb is the more predominant steering layer for a Cat 2, etc? Thanks in advance, just trying to more accurately understand what influences a system through its various phases.


Link
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GDFL initializes at 972? Too strong...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
After partying all night long with PR, Irene had a "bad hair day" working with Haiti. Now I'll believe she's a real threat. The early hype on this storm was too much too soon IMHO. We're getting calls from clients in other non-coastal states with people asking what risk we're in. And SC still had four days to stew.
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MSNBC

At the Pentagon, a low rumbling built and built to the point that the building was shaking. People ran into the corridors of the government's biggest building and as the shaking continued there were shouts of "Evacuate! Evacuate!"The quake even broke a water main inside the Pentagon, flooding parts of two floors, NBC reported.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting padirescu:
I have a question for the more educated posters on here. In looking at the steering layers, is there a general rule of thumb as to which layer is the predominant steering layer based on strength of the system? In other words, for a weak TS is the 700-850mb layer more predominant while the 400-850mb is the more predominant steering layer for a Cat 2, etc? Thanks in advance, just trying to more accurately understand what influences a system through its various phases.
Check out this link it will indicate which steering layer to use in relation to intensity!!!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do you want me to reposition the ultra zonic ray gun
Pretty pleazze...tks! hahaha
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Quoting TheMom:
It burnt yesterday and Kate Winslet saved Branson's mom


She is now number 1 on my hot woman list after saving someone's life. Move over Theron.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


do people not understand that the Inc, LLC, etc does nothing more than seperate the founder/pres/owner from the company so that personal effects are not at risk or considered part of the gains that are given out? apparently not...wow...


You know what, some of you people are just out of control when it comes to dealing with people that make mistakes or have misunderstandings. Excuse ME for not knowing what Portlight is, and if it was a non-profit or not. Most non-profit's do not include the "Inc." in their name, even if they are incorporated, which they of course must be in some way or shape to be able to operate as an entity.

I thought that when an organization gets 501 status that it generally no longer includes "Inc." in its public-facing name.

Maybe God will forgive me for not realizing that a non-profit could be an Inc., I know you all won't...
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Quoting charlottefl:
From fox news:

"There is reportedly concern that the Washington Monument is tilting."


I wonder if that's a rumor or true.
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Several friends have reported feeling the quake here near Syracuse, NY. I felt nothing and knew nothing of it until I read it on this blog.
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Quoting SeaMule:
i still think Irene will encounter a building High that no one foresees...and will head west...

ala Andrew....
and into the GOM

blasphemy!
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Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude

5.9

Date-Time
Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 17:51:03 UTC
Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 01:51:03 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location
37.975N, 77.969W
Depth
1 km (~0.6 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region
VIRGINIA

Distances

45 km (27 miles) E of Charlottesville, Virginia
55 km (34 miles) SW of Fredericksburg, Virginia
64 km (39 miles) NW of RICHMOND, Virginia
82 km (50 miles) NNE of Farmville, Virginia

Link

Tectonic Summary

EARTHQUAKES IN THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA SEISMIC ZONE
Since at least 1774, people in central Virginia have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones. The largest damaging earthquake (magnitude 4.8) in the seismic zone occurred in 1875.

This was 5.9!

Edit: Sorry for the off topic during the "Season"
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1015. TheMom
Quoting Krycek1984:


What is Portlight? The webpage reads as a non-profit but it is an "Inc." company? So is it for profit or not?
It is a non profit started with members here on WU. They have been a beacon of light to more communities than you can even imagine all volunteer! They were highlighted in a show following theri relief efforts in Hati. (presslord please add the info on that I watched it but forgot the show name)
I can promise you if they were anything other than what they are do you think that WU would not only allow them to post info here? Never mind the number of support posts and blogs Dr. Masters has made to include promoting the efforts of Portlight in interviews he makes on disasters?
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I have a question for the more educated posters on here. In looking at the steering layers, is there a general rule of thumb as to which layer is the predominant steering layer based on strength of the system? In other words, for a weak TS is the 700-850mb layer more predominant while the 400-850mb is the more predominant steering layer for a Cat 2, etc? Thanks in advance, just trying to more accurately understand what influences a system through its various phases.
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Quoting MonsterTrough:
I read/lurk this blog and comments all the time and usually can make sense of a storm. Typically, this close to CONUS, I trust the models and they don't make HUGE mistakes. From time to time, a storm comes along and breaks the models. Most of the time I can understand why a particular commenter has their own opinion as to a direction THEY think the storm will move. However, I've found myself falling for crazy ideas with this one.

"The storm is moving west for 20 miles....therefore, crap your pants the models and cone are wrong, she's going throgh keywest then destroying the Galley on Metairie rd in NOLA" - jump on westward bandwagon, fax in po'boy order

"The models don't give the curve enough justice...its going out to sea sooner and destroying my online poker account in bermuda" -jump on eastward bandwagon, put all in.

"The blob E of Florida will move the storm to xyz, because the models and cone can't be right. xyz = a city/state that will get the most people fired up." - jump on the blob bandwagon

I am taking a timeout. With the data we (as mostly amateurs) and the nhc have at this time, the cone and models are the best we can do. I don't visit this blog to pump my ego by making predictions. Nor do I think I see something that the NHC doesn't see. I visit to educate and someday hope to contribute. Those that contribute with facts, keep it up. Those that lurk (like me), keep learning and asking. If you can't figure out which you are...the first po'boy is on me. ; )


Well said. I've actually been a member here since 2004 and have only made about 20-30 posts. I enjoy reading discussions, but always go back to see what NHC has to say. I may take you up on that po-boy, tho. --Baton Rouge...
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Quoting MtnWX10:
A 5.9 magnitude earthquake that was centered in Richmond, Virginia and felt as far as New York City and New England.

Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly reported at 2:30 pm that their bureau received information from a producer saying that a Captiol Hill Police officer says that the Washington Monument may actually be tilting as a result of the earthquake.

Seismologist John Rundle joined Kelly on her show and confirmed that the Washington Monument could very well be tilting as a result of the earthquake and the structure should be checked out.

Two nuclear reactors have reportedly been taken off line near the epicenter of the earthquake.

The washington Times


That's a sign. Mother Nature can't wait until 2012 to take Obama out so she's taking matters into her own hands.
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I was flustered about Irene alone, and bam, that earthquake shook my house VIOLENTLY for 15 solid seconds. I am shaking still, although the ground stopped. I'm in Seaside Heights, New Jersey. Imagine an earthquake and potential hurricane all in the same week?
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Quoting LurkerLizSC:
I'm getting tired of looking at the photo of that dried up dead fish. Sorry. Carry on.


And there is no HIDE button...
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By the way, this is the second strongest I've ever seen the ECMWF make a tropical cyclone in one of its runs, only after some of the runs on Igor last year (which it actually slightly overdid, believe it or not!).
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an organization cannot even apply for 501c3 non profit status until it has been duly incorporated.......that's about as elemental as I'm gonna be able to get...
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PRC075-111-113-149-231900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0013.110823T1824Z-110823T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JUANA DIAZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JUANA DIAZ...
PENUELAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PENUELAS...
PONCE MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PONCE...
VILLALBA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 219 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR JUNCOS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 60
MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED
SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 1797 6668 1798 6673 1807 6671 1814 6667
1816 6645 1798 6645 1796 6661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 204DEG 42KT 1801 6663






Puerto Rico is still getting hammered by Irene, gives you perspective on the size of it.
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Quoting Relix:
Major Earthquake? LOOOOOL!!! 5.9 is major now? AAHAHAHAHAA!!

For an area that hasn't seen an earthquake that strong ever, yes it is a major.
I dont see us laughing at PR for not handling a silly TS very well....
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1002. Levi32
Quoting Joshfsu123:
So Levi -

Do you think the EWMCF and GFDL verify or do you see the more NE turn keeping Irene off the coast happening? The TVCN for the first time now keeps Irene off the coast completely... at least the updated 18z run does.

I know no one knows for sure what will happen yet but you seem to know your stuff so just checking your opinion.


It depends on how Irene interacts and phases with the shortwave trough that she will be moving towards, and that's hard to forecast until we're nearly on top of it. A NNE movement is likely. The GFS may be turning it a bit too abrupt, but it will be close. Hopefully we're only looking at a scraper, but again, the track is so exact in a situation like this that the tiniest change could mean all the difference in the world, and we're still 4 days out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Elongated eye, but pressure is still falling slowly.

000
URNT12 KNHC 231848
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/18:28:20Z
B. 20 deg 44 min N
071 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2883 m
D. 66 kt
E. 296 deg 13 nm
F. 010 deg 65 kt
G. 296 deg 15 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3106 m
J. 16 C / 3114 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E06/30/20

N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 23
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:32:00Z



note that they did found a 972 shortey be afer that was done


972.3 mb
(~ 28.71 inHg)
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i still think Irene will encounter a building High that no one foresees...and will head west...

ala Andrew....
and into the GOM
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CNN: "The Pentagon has been evacuated, CNN's Barbara Starr reports. "When the building began shaking rather violently, hundreds of people began streaming out," she said, because many people thought that the building was under attack. Starr was standing in the Pentagon's press office when the roof started to shake."
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A 5.9 magnitude earthquake that was centered in Richmond, Virginia and felt as far as New York City and New England.

Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly reported at 2:30 pm that their bureau received information from a producer saying that a Captiol Hill Police officer says that the Washington Monument may actually be tilting as a result of the earthquake.

Seismologist John Rundle joined Kelly on her show and confirmed that the Washington Monument could very well be tilting as a result of the earthquake and the structure should be checked out.

Two nuclear reactors have reportedly been taken off line near the epicenter of the earthquake.

The washington Times
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FIRE FIRE FIRE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm getting tired of looking at the photo of that dried up dead fish. Sorry. Carry on.
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I read/lurk this blog and comments all the time and usually can make sense of a storm. Typically, this close to CONUS, I trust the models and they don't make HUGE mistakes. From time to time, a storm comes along and breaks the models. Most of the time I can understand why a particular commenter has their own opinion as to a direction THEY think the storm will move. However, I've found myself falling for crazy ideas with this one.

"The storm is moving west for 20 miles....therefore, crap your pants the models and cone are wrong, she's going throgh keywest then destroying the Galley on Metairie rd in NOLA" - jump on westward bandwagon, fax in po'boy order

"The models don't give the curve enough justice...its going out to sea sooner and destroying my online poker account in bermuda" -jump on eastward bandwagon, put all in.

"The blob E of Florida will move the storm to xyz, because the models and cone can't be right. xyz = a city/state that will get the most people fired up." - jump on the blob bandwagon

I am taking a timeout. With the data we (as mostly amateurs) and the nhc have at this time, the cone and models are the best we can do. I don't visit this blog to pump my ego by making predictions. Nor do I think I see something that the NHC doesn't see. I visit to educate and someday hope to contribute. Those that contribute with facts, keep it up. Those that lurk (like me), keep learning and asking. If you can't figure out which you are...the first po'boy is on me. ; )
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992. Vero1
.
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3 quakes in 2 days...

Magnitude 5.9 VIRGINIA August 23, 2011
Magnitude 5.3 COLORADO August 23, 2011
Magnitude 4.6 COLORADO August 22, 2011

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Quoting TomTaylor:
I understand where you are coming from, but it's all relative...earthquakes greater than even just a 4.0 are pretty darn rare over there.


Phew. Didn't like that at all. Pretty scary- i'm at work.
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Quoting presslord:
somebody with a higher threshold than me is gonna have to handle that one...


do people not understand that the Inc, LLC, etc does nothing more than seperate the founder/pres/owner from the company so that personal effects are not at risk or considered part of the gains that are given out? apparently not...wow...
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From fox news:

"There is reportedly concern that the Washington Monument is tilting."

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting HCW:
I'm not advocating insurance fraud, but now would be a good time to give your old TV a good nudge.
,lol...hilarious!!!!,then again if you insure your old tv.......
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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice