Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Happily a slow steady rain is giving us a respite from the heat today in Memphis! I feel personally responsible as I broke down and watered everything this am and left my car windows open.
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I'd say we are about to see a stall/slow down agian with all that convection on it's east side in an attempt to consolidate her circulation. She's done this time after time throughout her entire life. Next 6 hrs will tell a lot.
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Dropsonde

Splash Location: 23.33N 75.43W
Splash Time: 17:24Z


1014mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 30 knots (35 mph)
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stillwaiting to emily's reminants:"come to papa",lol
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164. DVG
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Considering where it is now, if it becomes the dominant LLC, it will likely impact FL with more rain than currently progged. And increase the winds some. Do I think hurricane? Absolutely NOT. I am thinking 40-50mph tops (and I may be overshooting that). Once it gets good solid deep convection, it will begin to feel the trough a bit and pull towards the NW, then N.


I believe the cmc had this scenerio as it is developing a while back. Kinda fizzling then cruising up the Fl west coast.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I'm extremely confident that you're a troll. Welcome back JFV.

I alrady ignored him on the first post I saw from him. Can we get him banned again/still?
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Quoting Patrap:


And if you had just awakened from a 30 day sleep and this was the very first thing you saw, what would you say, tropically and objectively speaking.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

What's there to fly into?


Looks to me a similar situation as when they were flying it to determine if it was closed a few days back.
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Quoting whepton3:
So are the HH gonna fly this today or what?


Not Scheduled, so I would say no.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Besides, they are both embedded in a broad area of low pressure.
the nws has a low on the map just north of cuba,so isnt that atleast one tropical low?
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Well the NHC has a large Red circle which tells me they agree with most of the post here. Redevelopment is likely, more uncertain as to where. I notice through buoy observations that pressures around the Keys and S. Fl. are about 10mb lower than they are to the north and east of the remnants.
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So are the HH gonna fly this today or what?
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just to tell you I here in Grand Cayman is now getting SW winds
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151. bwi
Wouldn't this comment in the TWO imply that NHC thinks the "main" circulation is "between" the Bahamas and Cuba -- that is, the SWerly swirl folks are discussing, not the area NE of the Bahamas? Seems like that's the center of their oblong red "circle" too.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY.
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Quoting DVG:


It looks that way to me as well. Direction is to the west. I'd be interested in what those who really understand these things think.


Considering where it is now, if it becomes the dominant LLC, it will likely impact FL with more rain than currently progged. And increase the winds some. Do I think hurricane? Absolutely NOT. I am thinking 40-50mph tops (and I may be overshooting that). Once it gets good solid deep convection, it will begin to feel the trough a bit and pull towards the NW, then N.
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Quoting whepton3:
I think we may have a hint which one will win out..

check this out and look at the divergence and then the convergence.

Link


No divergence with the low northeast of the Bahamas but there is with the one by Cuba. That low looks to be moving more WNW...
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Quoting aspectre:
16 Grothar "No shouting on the blog please."

Please do not quote those who engage in deliberately offensive behaviour.



Sorry. And I promise I will do my homework tonight, too! Let me know how late I can stay up tonight.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 30304
Quoting Patrap:
Sigh,..

LoL



Besides, they are both embedded in a broad area of low pressure.
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The dominant LLC is marked in the image below:



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Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking at least NHC visible Emily looks to have multiple centers one south of Andros and one east of Andros.Should be interesting to watch where the new center forms. Will have a big impact on rain for Florida. Disturbance is in a very bad spot for rapid development. I won't mention any names.
Katrina!
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so when will we see Franklin and Gert forming and where will it go
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Quoting Patrap:
Sigh,..

LoL



Gotta love the timing......Blog almost self-destructed over Emily when all the "loonies" came out and here we go again for round two on all fronts......Too Funny....:)
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Turn on the fronts on this loop and you can see the trough still attachted to her. She has all kinds of vortices extending to her north and east, so whatever happens it will take a while for things to consolidate.

Good knews for Florida though with respect to that llc to its southest 79W 23N and its moving jsut north of due west. Florida is probably in for a good soaking, at least the southern coast and key anyway.

Link

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Quoting portcharlotte:
I am not seeing any north movement of the LLC and do not understand why NHC keeps pointing that way. The active swirl is still moving wnw IMO. It should pass south of S. Florida at the current rate. Does anyone support my idea here?


You are correct, it is still moving that way. I guess we just gotta keep watching it.
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Quoting whepton3:
I think we may have a hint which one will win out..

check this out and look at the divergence and then the convergence.

Link


Those maps don't show any divergence or convergence associated with the western-most circulation.
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Sigh,..

LoL

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Quoting tropicfreak:


It's almost as if it is sucking in the large area of convection to its east.


It sure is trying... cant wait to get some good radar sweeps out of Miami or Key West to confirm all of this interesting stuff. Some of the circulation already appears on the two radars, but would love to get the whole thing in scope.
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133. DVG
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Look at the convergent cloud lines spiraling in toward the LLC at 23.2N 79W... interesting. Thunderstorms trying around there as well. I think this will become more dominant, expecially if it can pull thunderstorms off island of Cuba this afternoon.


It looks that way to me as well. Direction is to the west. I'd be interested in what those who really understand these things think.
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
Emily is reforming
Bermuda watch out
Danger


Florida watch out rather.
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I think we may have a hint which one will win out..

check this out and look at the divergence and then the convergence.

Link
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Quoting Patrap:
Tropical Lows never "Merge"..they either,dissipate,or repel each others or orbit around a mean centewr,,or Fujiwhara effect


These aren't two tropical lows. They are two areas of low level spin that are very weak and one can very easily absorb the other.
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Thanks, MississippiWx. I was just looking at some satelite pictures and was wondering. I figured the stronger would be Emily and the second would be Gert, but wasn't sure. Now I'm wondering if that has ever happened. *G* My mind never stops.
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something
is trying to form to the north of cuba and south of andros island
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Emily is reforming
Bermuda watch out
Danger
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Quoting MississippiWx:


If Emily ever reforms, it will be from only one of the low level centers or a combination of the two. It's highly unlikely that they would both split and make two separate storms. If that were to happen, one would be Emily and the other Franklin. It won't happen though. They will either merge or one will eventually spin away and die.




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Quoting JFV2011:
I'm EXTREMELY confidant in saying that the U.S.A will not escape a hit this year. Between now and October 31st, this nation will get hit by a hurricane, I'm not stating an opinion, I'm stating a fact, =).


I'm extremely confident that you're a troll. Welcome back JFV.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I disagree. I think the SW swirl will become dominant. It has more of a westerly inflow already and you can see convection building towards it on loops.


Well, I realize the models aren't everything, but they don't develop the swirl you are mentioning. Add that to the fact that the one you are referring to is more underneath the subsidence influenced by the Continental Ridge, it's going to be difficult for that one to ever sustain itself. I could see a compromise of the two somewhere in the middle, but not that far south and west.
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Quoting whepton3:


So what do you think? Is it going to close off later today?


IMO, it is probably already closed off... just waiting for thunderstorms to fire now. And some appear to be in the process of being drawn in as we blog.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I disagree. I think the SW swirl will become dominant. It has more of a westerly inflow already and you can see convection building towards it on loops.


Probably by tonight, we will get a better grasp of which circulation will take over if it does regenerate.. But there is a good possibility with the convection that is slowly rebuilding..
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Quoting whepton3:


So what do you think? Is it going to close off later today?
Latest RUC model run shows that. I'm looking for daytime heating over Cuba to cause the atmosphere to become moister on the western side of the circulation. I think it still has about 24 hours before it wraps up fully with convection in my opinion. You can already see convection trying to reach to that area. Definitely worth watching.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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