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Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1832. tropicfreak
5:49 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting srada:
a More eastern component..hot gulf stream might aid in development if a east coast storm



Hopefully, we could use the rain here in VA.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1831. TxGrandma
2:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
RitaEvac, wondering if you're in the same rain-free hole we're in -- Seabrook, east side of 146. I've recorded less than 1/2" of rain since January. :(
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1829. CJ5
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
evere time you guys post the chart am reporting you for spam its geting annyoing that you have too post it evere time you make a post or funny post bout some in


I have to agree. It has become quite sophomoric at this point.
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1828. cg2916
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
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1827. Vincent4989
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 7th, with Video

Hey Levi!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1826. jeffs713
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


I figured you got that rain, I was already getting jealous
Nope! Went right around me.
Quoting jpsb:
If it makes you feel better in the past 8 months I've gotten 2" of rain. Bone dry here on Galvestion Bay.
I think you might have actually gotten more than me.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1825. IKE
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
NEW BLOG!
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1824. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:49 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
thunderboomer really wrapping around 91E circulation
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1823. RitaEvac
1:48 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Wiener, Wiener, chicken Diener.... holms
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1822. RitaEvac
1:48 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Very good thing it did not rain then.
Hole would of filled up.
You would have been in Deep Stuff!


fill er up
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1821. Levi32
1:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 7th, with Video
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1820. NICycloneChaser
1:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting cg2916:
Meanwhile in the Eastern Caribbean:



Any chance? Not sure, but it's worth watching once 94L fizzes.


That thing looks better than 94L does at the minute. I wonder is this the thing that the models have been intermittently bringing up north-east out of the Caribbean? Worth watching.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1819. pottery
1:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Radar had storms to my west,north,east, and south, and I was in a friggin hole

Very good thing it did not rain then.
Hole would of filled up.
You would have been in Deep Stuff!
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1818. srada
1:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
a More eastern component..hot gulf stream might aid in development if a east coast storm

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1817. RitaEvac
1:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Radar had storms to my west,north,east, and south, and I was in a friggin hole
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1816. aquak9
1:42 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting yesterway:


I feel ya .....


eeeewwww!!!
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1815. RitaEvac
1:41 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.


I figured you got that rain, I was already getting jealous
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1814. jpsb
1:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.
If it makes you feel better in the past 8 months I've gotten 2" of rain. Bone dry here on Galvestion Bay.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1813. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting cg2916:
Meanwhile in the Eastern Caribbean:



Any chance? Not sure, but it's worth watching once 94L fizzes.
always a chance, but if it heads anywhere near that trof, buhbye
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1812. cg2916
1:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Meanwhile in the Eastern Caribbean:



Any chance? Not sure, but it's worth watching once 94L fizzes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1811. fireflymom
1:37 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Our yard finally got over an inch yesterday with quite a bit of marble sized hail, impressive way to water the yard. Very grateful and greedy for more.
Quoting RitaEvac:
While folks around me received welcomed rains, I've received ZEEEEEERRRRRROOOOOO


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1810. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
beautiful here in sooo cal, cooler than normal 70-75 low humidity, time for a trip to disneyland
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1809. CyclonicVoyage
1:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting yesterway:


Mother nature? Try Father God.


Always best to leave religion out of the public blog. Mother Nature works just fine.
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1808. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
good morning all. it looks like trof is killing 94L? 91E is looking very very healthy!
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1807. pottery
1:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Those blobs look pretty close to you. Are they saying anything locally about heavy rains in your area?

OK. Trinidad 11n 61w.
Nothing startling in the forecasts.
Looking at the situation, those blobs will pass close and likely drop some rain, but the movement should keep them west and north of us.
Looks like Heavy Stuff for the Region though.

What do you guys think?
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1806. presslord
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
North Georgia gatorLink
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1805. lickitysplit
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Out here in the West its just hot, wind, fire and smoke everywhere. Nuts.
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1804. cg2916
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
I don't normally RIP stuff, but I think it's time.
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1803. Orcasystems
1:29 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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1802. blsealevel
1:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1801. yesterway
1:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.


I feel ya .....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1800. jeffs713
1:26 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
While folks around me received welcomed rains, I've received ZEEEEEERRRRRROOOOOO

If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1799. pottery
1:23 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Those blobs look pretty close to you. Are they saying anything locally about heavy rains in your area?

Will need to check that...
When I looked at the set-up earlier this morning, I assumed it was all going to swirl around west of me.
Will go back and check it all again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1798. hydrus
1:20 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Link
Quoting Vincent4989:

What's a band?
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1797. hydrus
1:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
<
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1796. yesterway
1:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I tell ya man. The ocean is coming in hard every year, increasing drought frequency. Every year they dump millions of dollars worth of sand on the beach to keep the ocean at bay. Mother Nature is going to win one of these days.


Mother nature? Try Father God.
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1795. RitaEvac
1:18 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
While folks around me received welcomed rains, I've received ZEEEEEERRRRRROOOOOO

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1794. Grothar
1:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:


Link TAFB Forecasts and Analyses


Hey, Chicklit. I've been on that site hundreds of times and never saw that link. Looks like we might get a little rain out of it anyway. Here's hoping.
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1793. galvestonhurricane
1:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1792. biff4ugo
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
1752
We got some welcome rain up in Gainesville FL yesterday, but it came with wind that knocked out my power and hefty lightning. For some reason the lightning did not show up on the wunder map, but was rumbeling for an hour or two.

Why doesn't the fire east of Crescent Lake have a name yet? It is big and has been on the map for at least 3 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1791. CyclonicVoyage
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Just one small step from being the "Deserted Southeast".
Might not be a bad thing...


I tell ya man. The ocean is coming in hard every year, increasing drought frequency. Every year they dump millions of dollars worth of sand on the beach to keep the ocean at bay. Mother Nature is going to win one of these days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1790. Vincent4989
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


be careful not to spam admin's box with those reports.

you don't want to earn a band.

What's a band?
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1789. miguel617
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
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1788. CyclonicVoyage
1:09 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
94L finally ditched that surface trough and is a single entity now, enter shear, lol. I was amazed last night looking at 94L, dual mid-level vort maxes, surface trough to Jamaica, it's no wonder it didn't pull it together.

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1787. Tazmanian
1:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
94L went POOF overe night
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1786. Grothar
1:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Yep. Thanks for that.
It's pretty...


Those blobs look pretty close to you. Are they saying anything locally about heavy rains in your area?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1785. hydrus
1:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Not Worthy, I am Not Worthy.
You are more than worthy..You own a 12 string..:)..Moisture for Florida..in 5 days.?/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1784. Grothar
1:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I was also thinking that being called the "Desert Southeast" would be nice too.


At this point, it is not far from the truth.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1783. pottery
1:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I was also thinking that being called the "Desert Southeast" would be nice too.

Just one small step from being the "Deserted Southeast".
Might not be a bad thing...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1782. hydrus
1:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Beer will do that.
Especially the German brew..It is shear power in a VERY large mug.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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