Hurricane season blows in 93L for Central Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:32 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure is falling and winds are rising at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds were 16 mph, gusting to 20 mph, at 8:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms, with the high level cirrus clouds of 93L already moving over Florida. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. I don't believe 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida, but the coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 26°C (79°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Storm Arlene as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

I'll have an update by noon today, when the latest CSU seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast will be available.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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305. sunlinepr
4:11 AM GMT on June 02, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
304. thelmores
10:54 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 01 Jun 2011 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 1.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 3 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NNW (345°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.04 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F

Seems to me that both bolded clues would support something forming at the surface...... pressure is dropping, winds are picking up, and wind north of the center out of the east........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
303. thelmores
10:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
I'm thinking this storm is a variant of the Frick, Frack, and Fruck family of storms.......

Here is the latest....... Fruck......


And for those around years ago, may remember Frick and Frack......
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
302. aspectre
7:00 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Deleted
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301. earthlydragonfly
5:32 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Ok folks we are now in the middle of this horrible storm... overcast, light rain... Lightning earlier with the first band... not too bad at all... great for the plants and the dust.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
299. wunderkidcayman
4:58 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
298. JRRP
4:52 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting pottery:
Er, Excuse me.
But there's a new blog up and you guys are in Limbo....


ajaajjajajajajaajjaja
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
297. HCW
4:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
This system could be one of those that looks better after it goes inland. Guess that we will find out in a couple of hours. Have a great day
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296. cchsweatherman
4:46 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok cool
I think when that circulation is closed off we should start to see some rapid fire development in convection now that we have shear droping at a decent rate so I shall stand by what I said tagged by the end of the day/morning time Thurs as well as being noticed in the TWO and depending how fast it develops may see a TD by SAT/SUN/MON


Gonna take some time for the low level circulation to become closed. Still strong easterlies reported on the eastern side of the system with the only evidence of any low level circulation being north winds on the Nicaraguan coastline.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
295. HCW
4:46 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
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294. reedzone
4:44 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting pressureman:
Reedzne thats what im talking about the disturbance wont survive to hostile in the GOM...look at the satellite pic it shows it clearly what im talking about..


Might want to look at the shear map, conditions are favorable for development, it's just a matter of how bad Florida destroys the structure. If the structure holds, wind shear will not be a problem.


93L is under an anticyclone, this is why shear has been favorable and also why convection has sustained itself for over 12 hours. Another reason why this got going was because the Gulf Stream warmed past 80 degrees over the last month. This allowed the MSC to transition into a tropical low/disturbance. I firmly believe strongly, as the satellite indicated, 93L was a Tropical Depression. The banding was evident and there was a closed LLC. The system weakened due to it going over the cooler, shallow waters. Almost every system that makes landfall on the East Coast of Florida weakens a tad due to the shallow water.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
293. NICycloneChaser
4:44 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting pottery:
Er, Excuse me.
But there's a new blog up and you guys are in Limbo....


Haha, thank you!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
292. NICycloneChaser
4:44 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting srada:
Has anyone seen the new GFS run..the caribbean system NOT making that northeast turn but almost rides up the east coast..


It's certainly a new path that none of the models have suggested thus far. Still not making it very strong, but depicting a probable weak TS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
291. pottery
4:43 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Er, Excuse me.
But there's a new blog up and you guys are in Limbo....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
XX/AOI/XXL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
289. NICycloneChaser
4:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting pressureman:
Reedzne thats what im talking about the disturbance wont survive to hostile in the GOM...look at the satellite pic it shows it clearly what im talking about..


? Reed just said wind shear is low, not hostile.
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288. srada
4:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Has anyone seen the new GFS run..the caribbean system NOT making that northeast turn but almost rides up the east coast..
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287. Skyepony
4:41 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
All the lightning in 93L suggests it's strengthening. I hope that SE quadrant gets more than dry lightning. That's the last thing I need.
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286. wunderkidcayman
4:41 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In reviewing satellite imagery early this afternoon, there appears to be some better defined low level circulation off the NE Nicaraguan coast with the Caribbean disturbance. Its become evident on RGB satellite imagery within the past few hours.

With that being said, surface observations available in the region do not reflect a closed surface circulation at this time, so this continues to be a process to get this to develop and will probably take the interaction of the tropical waves to the east to get it going.


ok cool
I think when that circulation is closed off we should start to see some rapid fire development in convection now that we have shear droping at a decent rate so I shall stand by what I said tagged by the end of the day/morning time Thurs as well as being noticed in the TWO and depending how fast it develops may see a TD by SAT/SUN/MON
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
285. pressureman
4:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Reedzne thats what im talking about the disturbance wont survive to hostile in the GOM...look at the satellite pic it shows it clearly what im talking about..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
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283. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
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282. emcf30
4:35 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
281. LakelandNana
4:35 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Hi all ~ heavy (much-needed) rain here in Lakeland, it's heading your way Tampa!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
280. NICycloneChaser
4:34 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Holding together well for now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
279. reedzone
4:34 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting pressureman:
I doubt it very much if the disturbance gets into the GOM it will generate into anything..The westerlies are much to strong out there..I believe it disipates by saturday.I dont think the gulfcoast has anything to worry about here...


What westerlies? Wind shear is low 5-10 knots in it's path until it crosses south of LA.
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278. NICycloneChaser
4:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting pressureman:
I doubt it very much if the disturbance gets into the GOM it will generate into anything..The westerlies are much to strong out there..I believe it disipates by saturday.I dont think the gulfcoast has anything to worry about here...


Shear is below 20 knots throughout most of it's would-be path, and are forecast to continue to decrease, so if it survives Florida it has a reasonable shot at becoming a depression/storm. I'd agree with you that the Gulf coast has nothing to worry about, more something to look forward to. They really need the rain.
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277. VAbeachhurricanes
4:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Bob is about to get the rain hes been hoping for
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
276. JRRP
4:32 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In reviewing satellite imagery early this afternoon, there appears to be some better defined low level circulation off the NE Nicaraguan coast with the Caribbean disturbance. Its become evident on RGB satellite imagery within the past few hours.

With that being said, surface observations available in the region do not reflect a closed surface circulation at this time, so this continues to be a process to get this to develop and will probably take the interaction of the tropical waves to the east to get it going.

yea
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:31 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
274. JRRP
4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
273. pressureman
4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
I doubt it very much if the disturbance gets into the GOM it will generate into anything..The westerlies are much to strong out there..I believe it disipates by saturday.I dont think the gulfcoast has anything to worry about here...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
272. cchsweatherman
4:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
In reviewing satellite imagery early this afternoon, there appears to be some better defined low level circulation off the NE Nicaraguan coast with the Caribbean disturbance. Its become evident on RGB satellite imagery within the past few hours.

With that being said, surface observations available in the region do not reflect a closed surface circulation at this time, so this continues to be a process to get this to develop and will probably take the interaction of the tropical waves to the east to get it going.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
271. VAbeachhurricanes
4:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting HCW:


Sat images are great but the interface is cluttered but I am still a customer


yeah I also find its radarlab gps, to be far superb to anything else out there. with minimum dbz setting and realtime lightning.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
INV/93L/XX
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
268. HCW
4:26 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
anyone else here use weathertap? i find its satellite to be great.


Sat images are great but the interface is cluttered but I am still a customer
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
267. VAbeachhurricanes
4:23 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
anyone else here use weathertap? i find its satellite to be great.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
266. NICycloneChaser
4:23 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting WINDSMURF:
I don't think that whatever is there in the caribean will become anything. It is very disorganized


It's getting there. Developments that far south take time. It might not, but don't write it off because of it's current organisation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
265. TampaTom
4:22 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Well, we just finished our media day in the EOC. A lot of media participation this year, even though we have had some light years in Florida.

Tonight, we're launching our new Prepare to Survive podcast at 7 p.m. Should be interesting...

http://www.pinellascounty.org/eseries
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
263. HCW
4:22 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
Live stream from Titusville up on ChaserTV... Guestimating gusts to 3 at this point.


I am sure that more people than that are watching his waterspout cam :) Heck 722 people were watching my stream live when I wrecked my car on a Tornado Chase back in March.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
262. Ossqss
4:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
If you had not viewed the NHC product changes for the 2011 Hurricane season, here ya go.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/updates_2011.pdf
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
259. WINDSMURF
4:19 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
I don't think that whatever is there in the caribean will become anything. It is very disorganized
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. tampahurricane
4:19 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Looks like a Squall line heading for the Tampabay area. lol
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257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:17 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
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256. JRRP
4:17 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Link
nice
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. Skyepony
4:17 PM GMT on June 01, 2011
Looks like recon is expecting to fly into an invest tomorrow, a cyclone earlier on the next day that makes landfall before the following day.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 02/1700Z C. 03/1000Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W D. 28.0N 94.0W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

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