An early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on May 31, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.

The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters

Joplin, MO (Portlight)
Joplin, MO

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1499. 7544
ok just got home heard we have 93l thought it was the carb blob then read back and its the east coast blob that won the race ? to get tagged first wow didnt expect that one slap me 4 times lol welcome to this unpredicted 2011 hurricane season .
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Quoting Levi32:


Something in me doubts it will get much farther, but who knows.


Is that doubt rooted in science, or personal feelings? ;)
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Well so much for the predicted drop in oil prices
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Quoting PintailKiller:


7:42am on May 25th is the date stamp on that.


read my post below
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1495. xcool
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1494. Patrap
Thats Long Range JAX


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
invest 93L got no yellow mark


7:42am on May 25th is the date stamp on that.
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Quoting Patrap:


That radar needs some maintenance
.
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And JFV, start panicking, got a storm heading to your state in time for opening of hurricane season

It wouldn't be the same without him...looks to be a very interesting start...there's plenty of oil for something to stir up in the GOM...
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Quoting FrankZapper:
We're ready. The Army Corp of Engineers just finished our new 100 year hurricane protection system.



BWAAAAhAAaaaahaa! Haaaa ha ha haaaaa....

Oh Wait, You were serious? NO,, What? You forgot the "/sarc" tag didn't you?
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Quoting pipelines:


this map is from the 25th


yea because that map is only updated starting June 1st unless there is a Special TWO issued

He is showing the right map
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1488. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:
ooohh!!
It's raining again!
I'm going to bed.
Look out for Invest 96.
THAT'S the one!
Yep!!
and 97 98 99 yep them too

later pot stay dry as ya can i guess
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1487. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


This actually reminds me a lot of Bonnie so far. The storm is stuck is a confluent regime along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge, is small, and thus highly vulnerable to sudden atmospheric changes. And of course, none of the global models initialized the circulation all that well, and most fail to intensify it.

I remember how much we all jumped the gun with that one. I'm being more careful this time.


Something in me doubts it will get much farther, but who knows.
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I'd like to see that 65 hr loop of this thing
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1485. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1484. ricderr


Hi boys just flying through....
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1483. Levi32
This is when 93L began...65 hours ago.

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1482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TomTaylor:
It will be onshore by tomorrow afternoon
just before sunrise at the paling of of sky
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1481. pottery
ooohh!!
It's raining again!
I'm going to bed.
Look out for Invest 96.
THAT'S the one!
Yep!!
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Quoting Mucinex:


Made, of course, from shower curtains.



LOL...LOL
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes, not to mention that it's technically on the confluent side of the ridge. It's the little blob that could.


This actually reminds me a lot of Bonnie so far. The storm is stuck in a confluent regime along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge, is small, and thus highly vulnerable to sudden atmospheric changes. And of course, none of the global models initialized the circulation all that well, and most fail to intensify it.

I remember how much we all jumped the gun with that one. I'm being more careful this time.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
invest 93L got no yellow mark


this map is from the 25th
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and watch you get a once in 500 year event


Then they build a 500 year protection, only to get a 1000 year event
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Quoting Mucinex:

...and enters his "StormCave" to pick out the perfect googles.



I can hear the scary music playing now as "Captain Storm Chaser" enters the room
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Quoting Levi32:


It's crap. Try viewing my blog with it lol. It lines all the letters vertically.


I can verify this statement
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1473. Mucinex
Quoting SCwannabe:



Picking out the perfect cape


Made, of course, from shower curtains.
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1472. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FrankZapper:
We're ready. The Army Corp of Engineers just finished our new 100 year hurricane protection system.
and watch you get a once in 500 year event
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Just because "the blob" has been classsified doesn't change what it really is, a complex of thunderstorms. This is going to be a non-event unless you look at the glass being half full, then a great event for SE Florida, some much needed rain if the system stays together.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My take on Invest 93L:

Tonight: Invest

Tomorrow morning: Invest

Tomorrow afternoon: Invest/TD

Tomorrow night: Invest/TD/TS?

Thursday: Moving ashore...

It will be onshore by tomorrow afternoon
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Quoting Mucinex:

...and enters his "StormCave" to pick out the perfect googles.



Picking out the perfect cape
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1468. Mucinex
Quoting SCwannabe:
Cantore is probably buffing and shining his head right now...lights...show....action

...and enters his "StormCave" to pick out the perfect googles.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's crap.


No, Levi, tell us how you really feel.
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1466. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
invest 93L got no yellow mark
because it was a navy issued invest because its within a main port of entry in less than 24 hrs and sorties for ships at berth or at sea can be issued before any landfall if needed
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
invest 93L got no yellow mark

It has only just been made and Invest, let them analyze it for the next TWO
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1464. Levi32
Quoting RitaEvac:
hmmm, downloaded IE 9, not bad so far


It's crap. Try viewing my blog with it lol. It lines all the letters vertically.
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1463. Bitmap7
Quoting SCwannabe:
Cantore is probably buffing and shining his head right now...lights...show....action


LOL
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It has to hit new orleans to be the perfect storm
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It has to hit new orleans to be the perfect storm
We're ready. The Army Corp of Engineers just finished our new 100 year hurricane protection system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good night all...Cannot wait to see how 93L and pre-94L look in the morning, as well as our first TWO of the season!


Same goes for me, night all.
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hmmm, downloaded IE 9, not bad so far
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1459. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


They are, but the system is still clearly being sheared, evidenced by satellite animations. Notice the lack of outflow on the eastern periphery. It is restricted to the west.


Yes, not to mention that it's technically on the confluent side of the ridge. It's the little blob that could.
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Number of "L's" in the Atlantic Basin..........1
Number of points Miami Heat are ahead..........1
.
.
Coincidence....or conspiracy?
Define and discuss.
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Cantore is probably buffing and shining his head right now...lights...show....action
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1456. xcool
KoritheMan thank ;) and thankLevi32 toooo
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1455. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
DID any forecasting models Pickup on 93L CAN'T RECALL IF THEY DID ? thanks.


No, and for pretty good reason honestly. The environment really isn't that favorable without a pre-existing self-sustaining disturbance such as the MCS that came off of New England. The residual circulation was very small and hard to pick up by global models. Apparently it was enough to do the job here to get it to develop at least somewhat.
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1454. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like i picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue

Brilliant!
heheheheh
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1453. unf97
Quoting PcolaDan:


Where's aqua when you need her? lol


Oh I am sure she will be on here soon enough. I met Aqua at the Weatherfest at the University of North Florida just over a couple of months ago. She is a fantastic person to meet and be around and i really enjoyed being with her that day.
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Good night all...Cannot wait to see how 93L and pre-94L look in the morning, as well as our first TWO of the season!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


It does get pretty annoying.

I don't bother watching his little video's.
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Quoting xcool:
DID any forecasting models Pickup on 93L CAN'T RECALL IF THEY DID ? thanks.


No, Scott. I do not think they did.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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