Oddball Vince; new Puerto Rico development

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2005

Vince is definitely an oddball storm. First of all, it's ridiculous that we're up to a "V" storm in early October. Second of all, Vince formed in a very unusual location--off the coast of Portugal. No known tropical storm has ever formed so far north and east. Thirdly, Vince formed in a region where water temperatures were only about 24 C--usually, 26 C is needed! Fourthly, Vince is incredibly tiny--and was a hurricane for about 12 hours!



Vince is in a strange location, but not unprecedented. Vince is pretty far east--16.6 West longitude at the 5am EDT advisory--but there have been hurricanes that have been even further east than Vince. For example, in 1965, Hurricane Carol made it to 16 West near the coast of Portugal before being downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression. And in 1961, Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland as a Category 1 hurricane, passing longitude 8 West before losing hurricane characteristics. So, Vince's location isn't unprecedented. But this sure is a weird exclamation mark to put on the end of a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season!

Vince won't be with us for long, and is already starting to rapidly decay. He's over cold 23C waters now, and wind shear from the northwest has blown away all the convection on that side, exposing the low-level center. A cold front approaching Europe will pick up Vince Tuesday morning, and finish tearing Vince apart. Vince's remains should bring Portugal and Spain heavy rains and winds gusts to 45 mph on Tuesday. Portugal gets the remains of tropical storms every 5 - 10 years, on average. This occurred most recently in October 1998 with Jeanne.

New development near Puerto Rico
A strong upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating a large curved band of disturbed weather from the Bahamas through the central Caribbean to the Leeward Islands. A surface low pressure area has developed just south of Puerto Rico this morning in association with this area, and has rotated northeastward to the east side of Puerto Rico. Some spiral banding has developed to the southeast of this low, and this low will have to be watched for signs it is turning into a tropical depression. This morning, sustained winds of 27 mph, gusting to 33 mph, were observed at St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. Although wind shear is too high today to support a tropical depression developing in this area, most of the global computer models predict that a tropical storm will form from this disturbed area of weather later this week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 2. Current radar out of Puerto Rico shows some spiral banding developing in association with a low to the east of the island.

The tropical disturbance we've been following about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands remains disorganized, and is not expected to develop in the next two days.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains in the 1000 - 2000 range. Most of these deaths occurred in the Lake Atitlan area (see wunderphoto below). Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time.

For those of you who want to help out, I suggest a donation to the Guatemalan Red Cross:

Intermediary Bank
CITIBANK
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK N.Y. 10043
U.S.A.
ABA 021000089
SWIFT CITIUS33

Paying institution:
Banco del Cafe, S. A. Guatemala
Account 36009832
swift CAFBGTGC

For final credit to:
Cruz Roja Guatemalteca Acct Number 81-03-44361-0

The next update will be Monday by 4 pm, or earlier if the Puerto Rico low develops.

Jeff Masters

Lake Atitlan, Guatemala (KatieC)
"the most beautiful lake in the world" A Huxley
Lake Atitlan, Guatemala

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77. weatherspirit
5:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Link

Recent pic of a Meditereanean "Hurricane" in 1995.

Notice it formed in January...

a href="http://www.mindspring.com/~jbeven/intr0008.htm"
target="_blank">Link

Explaination, genesis, and life of the "'Cane"
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76. MandyFSU
5:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Does anyone see any cool temperatures in sight for Florida? I'm ready for it to be fall!!!!
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75. palmbeacher
5:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
billsfan, I wont hold it against you for your football remark.....but that is just wrong! Anyway, yes its HOT and for October. The humidity is out of control.
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74. tornadoty
5:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I brought this up with Lefty a couple days ago, but the discussion never started, so I'll ask you guys. If a subtropical storm were to reach hurricane strength and remain subtropical, what would it be termed? Just a hurricane, a subtropical hurricane?
73. AySz88
1:25 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
oriondarkwood: by definition, a tropical system must be "warm core", so no, there's no way a hurricane can be cold core. You might be looking for polar lows, which are warm core systems in cold temperatures.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
72. buckeyefan1
5:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
See what you miss when it's lunch!! LOL :)
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71. billsfaninsofla
1:13 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
Palmbeacher.....I'm with you, I am SO sick of this heat.. and today's even worse as what little breeze we have is coming from over the land, not the Atlantic.. I didn't get that much rain last weeke, I'll take the cloudy skies and rain instead of heat..

Go Canes! (my 2 cents in the college football talk!)
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70. weatherboyfsu
5:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Doesnt look like anything developing that has the U.S. mainland in its sites at the moment......vince was interesting but that is gone now.....
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69. weatherboyfsu
5:10 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
What the heck is going on in here......are we talking about my third favorite topic?????
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68. 8888888889gg
4:57 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
may new blog is out now so take a look at it
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67. oriondarkwood
12:48 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
Question for the group.. Has their every been a cold core hurricane (I think its possible I mean on sat some of them hardcore lows from Canada look like partial hurricanes)?

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66. buckeyefan1
4:27 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Skye
I also sent a letter to my Senate. That would be tragic!! they keep enough info from us as it is. Keep us updated!
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65. buckeyefan1
4:19 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
As long as Texas, or USC doesn't get it. I don't care. I would love to have the Big 10 there.. Looks like our only hope is Penn State (couldn't say that without choking!!)LOL
Agree-take down Michigan!!
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64. AySz88
12:20 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
Okay, I see what you mean to do now. :p Sorry.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
63. Skyepony (Mod)
4:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Yes Dr. Masters has brought this up & commeted in the past. He also said he's gathering more info to be posted soon when the tropics calm. I'd like to make everyone aware of it & at the proper time get a huge collective effort against this bill forwarded to the proper senators.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
62. palmbeacher
4:15 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
buckeyefan1, I lived in Portsmouth for the first 19 years of my life, been is Fl ever since. Was very upset over that game. I am also a FSU fan so I still have hopes for a championship. Still going to be cheering on the Bucks especially when they play Michigan. GO BUCKS
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61. AySz88
12:15 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
(Copied from the link)

Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for The Weather Underground Inc., a small online weather information site, doesn't think it's that far-fetched. "The bill is designed to be private-industry friendly," he says. "I think it was written as a favor for large weather providers." He believes that the bill would eliminate the forecast data his company currently gets from the NWS, forcing his company to purchase that information from a large commercial source such as AccuWeather.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
60. AySz88
12:14 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
Um, Jeff Masters has *already* responded to the bill.

http://informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=164902303
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
59. Skyepony (Mod)
4:11 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I didn't write the bill a senator did that. That's the bill as is they want to pass. It would be helpful if some one with a little more law background could comment in the blog with a translation. But yes one problem is this bill is vague.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
58. tornadoty
4:10 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Skyepony, if you really want Dr. Masters to respond to the bill and its state, it is best to mail him about it. Also, he has some old blog entries in his archive about it, but I, like you, would like an update on the demise of the bill and, hopefully, of Sen. Santorum's senate career.
57. buckeyefan1
4:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Not in Buckeye country anymore :(
I lived in West Carrollton until about 17 yrs ago, now I'm in South Carolina. Very dissapointing loss!!! Went from 6th to 15th. No Championship this year!!!
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56. weatherwannabe
4:10 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal that is interesting and it explains a lot about the problems the NWS that affect all of our weather forecasts.

55. AySz88
12:08 PM EDT on October 10, 2005
Skyepony - Perhaps make the important portions of the bill clearer? I think they're sections (b) and (c)(2)?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
54. palmbeacher
4:02 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
buckeyefan1, curious as to where in buckeye country you are in? Sorry about the loss on Sat.
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53. Skyepony (Mod)
3:58 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I finally made my own blog! It's all about the bill in committee to Privitize all the govt weather info. So please click on my name above & get educated. If this passes, it could get real hard for us amature forcasters & greatly lesson the info & fun that WUBA prevides.

Dr Jeff Masters~ I look forward to the info you were gatherin from your friends on the matter!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
52. buckeyefan1
3:55 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Can't believe that it is still rainy outside!!! No rain for over a month..then nothing but rain. No fair today!!! LOL
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51. jazzinsuz
3:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
This year is certainly one for the record books.
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50. buckeyefan1
3:54 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I hope to see Wilma sometime today/tomorrow!! Don't want any action, just history!!!
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49. tornadoty
3:46 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Does anyonw know what the quack Bastardi has to say lately?
48. Weathermandan
3:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
no problem


hey everyone I just posted a new blog :D lol Link couldn't get any pics on there this morning though...this comp isn't being very nice to me this morning hahaha
47. tornadoty
3:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
My new advisory on Vince is out:

Link
46. stormydee
3:38 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Link THE BIG EARTHQUAKE. Gosh, there were a lot this year....
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45. palmbeacher
3:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Thanks weatherman, we are going in on 11/7 from Columbus Ohio, hopefully the weather will be clear enough. My kids are really looking forward to seeing the statue and all the buildings. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
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44. Weathermandan
3:25 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
wxhatt-thanks lol...it's getting dark outside...O.O

palmbeacher-flying into JFK? yeah you'll be able to see the city. don't know how much of it (depends on the weather) but yeah it's a pretty good view flying into JFK or LaGuardia actually. dunno which side of the plane you should look out of though because it depends on it the plane has to loop around and come in from the north because of the wind and such lol. but yeah...you can see it =)
43. StellarCyclone
3:17 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Cairo be careful what you wish for. If weather patterns keep changing, perhaps you'll get more rain, sure sounds like you could use it.
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42. wxhatt
3:17 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Yea Jazz, but it looks like it's probably gonna be blowin here in a few days. Just figuring out the models now. Will check JB's forcast too now.
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41. tornadoty
3:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
I think it's suffice to say that the NOGAPS has lost its marbles.
40. jazzinsuz
3:08 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hi wxhatt,
I live in Buxton and work in Hatteras. I heard this morning that the road was all but closed south of the bridge and not great on the north side either. Another beautiful day in paradise. At least it is not blowing.
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39. cgableshurrycanegal
11:09 AM EDT on October 10, 2005
Dr. Jeff and bloggers, second installment in the series in today's Miami Herald "Money woes stifle hurricane science" makes for very interesting reading. Alot of date collected and no way to interpret it.
This whole money debacle is a disgrace, and it affects not just the coastal hurricane areas but inland with heavy rainfall accumulations that can't be accurately forecast!

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12862412.htm
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
38. Skyepony (Mod)
2:58 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
finally the ukmet Link moves the PR blob N while devoloping into somethin worth watchin. The track is a little more to the east than last night. Interesting 2 of the 4 had NE US looking landfall, last night (includin ukmet). Just like the fickle models to always be changin their minds!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
37. palmbeacher
3:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
hey weathermandan, I have a question for you, unrelated to the weather. I am flying into JFK (never been to NY) will my kids be able to see anything in the city from the air? May sound like a stupid question, but I really don't know what to tell them. Can you let me know please?
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35. Skyepony (Mod)
2:52 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
presenting the nogaps Link doesn't form stan much. takes that PR storm, onimusly develops swings toward US & seems to form it up to 4 storms a little to close together to be all that believeable (at least in the long cast)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
34. Weathermandan
2:54 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Good morning from Long Island! It's raining...AGAIN...or actually, STILL. The rain never really stopped and is/will be gradually picking up in intensity today. Another inch of rain is possible by daybreak tomorrow, with even more, heavier rain and strong winds possible thereafter.


One word: yuck
33. stormydee
2:51 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
palmbeacher - don't know, at 11ish yesterday it was already 92 here...I stayed in most of the day
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32. Skyepony (Mod)
2:48 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
the gfs Link Seems to be picking up on the intensity of the PR blob a little better in current time. For the future shows same disorganisation, with a little more easterly track. No stan to redevolp here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
31. wxhatt
2:46 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Mornin All,

Rain has slowed temporarily here in Frisco. But more cells rumbling offshore and training in, means lots more rain. Just checked the rain gauge and it's close to 4 inches already! We are getting the squeeze play from the high to the east and west and no immediate relief in sight.

Jazz are you north of Frisco? My Wife just got back from the Pharmacy in Avon and says there was a lot of water on the road.
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30. Skyepony (Mod)
2:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
shall we have a mornin check of the models? The canadian~ Link don't forget to scroll right & hit forward on these. seems to have the PR storm go to the fishes breakin up, with a piece breifly threatnin NC. Observe Stan reformin quite well in the pacific.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 403 Comments: 43511
28. iyou
2:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
jazz et al-Thanks for the info! If you go to www.sncsurf.com and click on Crystal Pier or Blockade Runner you can see Wrightsville Beach and Kure Beach - a good surf kicking up.
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27. jazzinsuz
2:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
iyou,
I am north of there on Cape Hatteras but Striper season has just begun. We have also had a south wind which drives the deep water fish in so, grouper has been on the menu alot lately. We also see some bluefish, puppy drum, pompano and spot. It is absolutely pouring today. Thunder/lightening the whole nine yards except the wind. That is very odd for us.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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