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TD 22 dies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 AM GMT on October 09, 2005

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22 dissipated Saturday evening, torn apart by wind shear. Its remnants will continue west towards the Carolinas, but are not expected to regenerate or bring significant rains to the U.S.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown disorganized, and now has 20 knots of shear over it. Development is not expected on Sunday, but some slow development after that is possible.

Deep convection has increased at the center of a non-tropical low between the Canary Islands and the Azores Islands. This low may become a subtropical depression on Sunday or Monday. Little motion is expected the next two days.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time, with over 1500 deaths caused. Stan will proabably far surpass Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana. The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala. In a freakish double whammy, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala Friday, causing additional damage, but no deaths. Also bizzare is the volcanic eruption that occured during the height of Stan rains in El Salvador on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens. When you add these events to the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that rocked Taiwan at the height of Tyhoon Longwang on October 1, one might wonder if there is a connection between seismic activity and hurricane activity! There isn't.

October outlook
Historically, 20% of all Atlantic tropical storms have occured in the month of October. In a nomal year, this means we can expect two tropical storms, one of which becomes a hurricane. According to Dr. Bill Gray's October 2005 hurricane forecast issued on October 3, this year we can expect an above average October, with three tropical storms, two of which become hurricanes--one of those a major hurricane. We have already had two named storms this month, Stan and Tammy. Long range computer model forecasts continue to show that conditions for breeding tropical storms will be excellent until at least the last week of October, so two more named storms--Vince and Wilma--will likely result by the end of October. This would tie 2005 with 1933 as the busiest hurricane season ever. It is interesting to note that in 1933, the final three storms all showed up after October 25. If 2005 follows a similar pattern, we'll have Alpha, and Beta in addition to Vince and Wilma before it's all over. Dr. Bill Gray is not forecasting any November storms to form. However, we should get at least one, given the current pattern and continued above-normal sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Typical tropical storm formation areas for October.

The next update will be Sunday around 11 am.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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114. CaneJunky
12:40 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hello all
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. hurigo
10:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Left, what the heck is going on. ?Hurricane Vince? Is the naming of this storm solely based on satelitte imagery? If not, what else? BBC doesn't mention it. Is there a Euro Weather Service? Would be interested to see their commentary.
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112. paweatherfan
3:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
I agree lefty looks like they are grasping at straws to get another name out there!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. timl2k5
3:56 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
tropical; storms and cyclones are heat engines. tell me what heat engine runs on 23-24 degree waters lol. they wanted to break the 1933 recordlike we want to break the record. its bs and will dissipate in 24 hours. this is one of the few times the nhc looks dumb lol


OK lefty you know better than the NHC. Did you read the whole discussion? Man klefty this is one of the few times you look dumb.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. leftyy420
3:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
ay, if they feel its subjective that means they held a vote lol and more people wantedto name it, but its not a ts or a sts. and it will be gone in 24 hours. its probly more than just wanting to break the 1933 record. they want to use some of the greek alphabet.

plus there is a developing system in the carribean and that will now be wilma and we have had a problem with the ladies this year lol
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109. seflagamma
3:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
new post just out from Dr Masters.....
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108. leftyy420
3:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
PRIMEZ, there are huge low pressure systems in the atklantic that have eyes. it has nothing to do with being a ts or a hurricane. its a very strong low pressure system yes. but tropical no.
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107. AySz88
3:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Um....wouldn't we break the record anyway whether or not they called Vince a TS or a STS?
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106. leftyy420
3:44 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
aY, THATS NOT WHAT THIS SAYS. THIS SAYS THEY ARE NOT SURE ITS A TROPICLA OR A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. MEANING THEY DON;T KNOW IOF ITS A TRUE WARMCORE SYSTEM OR ANYTHING ABOUT IT. SPECIALLY WHEN ITS OVER 23-24 DEGREE WATERS. THATS UNHEARD OF. OPNE MORE TIME RERED WHAT THEY SAY

WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. primez
3:44 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Guys, the storm had a well defined eye earlier.
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104. primez
3:42 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Only one more name left...
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103. leftyy420
3:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
ofcourse. if the nhc is going to start naming everything in the atlantic lol. i think tommorow they will name that huge ull in the atlantic as well lol. i must say if it was little further south i would be with them on itsd classification but it is not a ts lol
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102. AySz88
3:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Hm, that reads to me like they're very sure that this storm is Vince, and it's just a question of whether it's STS or TS. Doesn't seem like they're desperate, or they would have called it STS Vince yesterday as they said they could have.
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101. 8888888889gg
3:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
dos any one think that we will past the 1933 hurricane year and hoe meane storm did we see that year?

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100. leftyy420
3:39 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
tropical; storms and cyclones are heat engines. tell me what heat engine runs on 23-24 degree waters lol. they wanted to break the 1933 recordlike we want to break the record. its bs and will dissipate in 24 hours. this is one of the few times the nhc looks dumb lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. leftyy420
3:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
it was another way to get the 20th named storm and its basically in their disscussion

WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. 8888888889gg
3:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
well it look like that TD 19 and TD 22 did not make it and TD 10 did not make it to and not no that TD 10 be come TD 12
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. leftyy420
3:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
that is not a ts lol. but i guess they really want to break the record of 1933.


next real development will be near pr. convection has been flaring and surface pressures have been falling. per the latest surface anylasis a low has developed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. dcw
3:33 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Yeah, eye formation is very dependant on upper-level structure of the storm. I have seen storms as weak as 50 mph (fully tropical) with well-defined eyes, and storms as strong as 120 (Rita) without.
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95. dcw
3:30 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Hit my site, I issued an advisory before Dr. Masters! *happiness* Link
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94. 8888888889gg
3:30 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
so if this is TD 23 and then be come Vince then the next one would be TD 24 right?
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93. Carbo04
3:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Because it's not fully tropical. Plus some TS can have eyes. Hurricane strength at 74 MPH is just when an eye normally starts to form, not always.
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92. HurricaneKing
3:27 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Some ts have eyes. Some extratropical storms have eyes.
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91. 8888888889gg
3:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Vince has a eye how can that be it is not a hurricane yet how can that be?
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90. turtlehurricane
3:24 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
who knows, maybe hurricane vince is possible
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89. 8888888889gg
3:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Vince where did you come from any one no and when could we see W
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88. turtlehurricane
3:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
thanks
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87. Carbo04
3:21 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Vince looks nice. Steve Lyons made mention of it's eye feature on TWC.
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86. AySz88
3:21 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Gah, sorry for breaking the page! >.<
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84. HurricaneKing
3:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
I was getting ready to ask you the same thing turtle.
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83. HurricaneKing
3:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Everything starts out disorganized.
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82. turtlehurricane
3:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
i cant find a sat. image of vince , anyone hav a link?
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81. 8888888889gg
3:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
come out come out where evere you are W
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80. Carbo04
3:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
from vince's discusion Even though this system is situated over sea
surface temperatures of 23-24 celsius and is beneath a large
mid/upper level trough... it now has several characteristics that
warrant classification as Tropical Storm Vince.


Yea, i was looking at that. Very weird, but this is 2005!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
79. Carbo04
3:13 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
It could, 88888.. In fact, anything in that mass area of storms could form possibly. will it? I'd say probably not. Everything is so cluttered, and disorganized.
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78. turtlehurricane
3:12 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
also, i hav an in depth analysis of global warming on my blog
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
77. Skyepony (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
from vince's discusion Even though this system is situated over sea
surface temperatures of 23-24 celsius and is beneath a large
mid/upper level trough... it now has several characteristics that
warrant classification as Tropical Storm Vince.


Wow, this storms just don't play by the rules this year!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
76. 8888888889gg
3:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
dos any one think that TD 22 could come back or not?
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75. turtlehurricane
3:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
we have vince
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74. 8888888889gg
3:10 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
we this need W and that is it and did you all no we have now past the 1995 hurricane year
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
73. AySz88
3:07 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
eightsninegoodgame: a "regular" low turned into a subtropical low yesterday (though it hadn't been named - according to the discussion) and then turned tropical today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
72. buckeyefan1
3:05 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Works for me!!! Willllmmaaaaa!!! Had to go there!! LOL
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71. Carbo04
3:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Wow, all this concentration of the stuff over here, and Vince actually forms near Europe. An extrememly unusual place for something to form, especially in October.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
70. buckeyefan1
3:02 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
STD 22 has left the building. This is off the coast of Africa going NE.
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69. 8888888889gg
3:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
i would like to no did TD 22 be come Vince or did this come out of no where and where is it going if any one have this ? for me let me no
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68. buckeyefan1
2:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
I don't remember when something formed in such a wierd place! Anything goes this year
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67. buckeyefan1
2:58 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
I guess in the Carib. will be Wilma!!! Bring on Alpha!!
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66. AySz88
2:51 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Looks like Vince is headed straight for Portugal! o.O
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65. buckeyefan1
2:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
Hopefully we'll get some rain from Vince.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
64. RobbTC
2:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2005
VINCE IS BORN

TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005
1500Z SUN OCT 09 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 19.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 KT
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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