The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 28, 2011

For thirty days and thirty nights the rain fell in unending torrents. By the end of the biblical deluge, rivers of water ten feet deep flowed through the streets of Sacramento, and an astounding 29.28 inches of rain had fallen on San Francisco. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in the Sierras, the moist flow of air from Hawaii--often called an "atmospheric river" or the "Pineapple Express"--hit the steeply sloping mountainsides and rose upwards. The air expanded and cooled, causing truly prodigious rains, with the mining town of Sonora receiving 8.5 feet of rain over a 2-month period. The resulting floods inundated California's Central Valley with a lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.

The above event occurred in January 1862, and similar extreme rain events have deluged in California seven times in the past 2,000 years--about once every 300 years. Great storms like the flood of 1862 will happen again. If the planet continues to warm, as expected, the odds of such an event will at least double by 2100, due to the extra moisture increased evaporation from the oceans will add to the air. A group of scientists, emergency managers, and policy makers gathered in Sacramento, California earlier this month to discuss how the state might respond to a repeat of the 1862 rain event--the ARkStorm Scenario. The "AR" stands for "Atmospheric River", the "k" for 1,000 (like a 1-in-1000 year event), and of course "ARkStorm" is meant to summon visions of biblical-scale deluge, similar to the great flood of 1862. The team's final report envisions the most expensive disaster in world history, with direct damages and loss of economic activity amounting to $725 billion.

"Atmospheric Rivers" was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.


Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are "Atmospheric Rivers", and are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. This Atmospheric River occurred on December 21, 2010, and brought very heavy flooding rains to Southern California. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

California's Delta Region levees at high risk of failure
Much of Central California's water supply and agricultural areas are protected by an antiquated and poorly maintained set of levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers that are in serious danger of failure during an extreme flood or major earthquake. The 1,600 miles of levees protect 500,000 people, 2 million acres of farmland, and structures worth $47 billion. Of particular concern is the delta at the confluence of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, about 80 miles inland from San Francisco Bay. The Delta Region receives runoff from more than 40% of California, and is the hub of California's water supply system, supplying water to 25 million people and 3 million acres of farmland. Key transportation and communication lines cross the region. The Delta Region is home to dozens of islands with highly productive farms that have subsided to elevations as much as 25 feet below sea level. Jeffrey Mount, director of the Center for Integrated Watershed Science and Management at the University of California at Davis, said in a recent interview with MSNBC, "The chances of a catastrophic flood occurring in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sometime in the next 50 years are about two out of three." He called Sacramento, which is only protected to a 1-in-80 year flood by its levees, "the most at-risk large metropolitan area in the country, with less than half the protection that New Orleans had. It is at extreme risk due to levee failure and subsidence."" The most serious catastrophe for the levees in the Delta Region would be a major earthquake occurring during the dry season. Such a quake would allow salt water to intrude from San Francisco Bay, shutting off the fresh water supply for millions of Californians for months. Collapse of the levees during the wet season would be less devastating, as water pressure from the relatively high flow rates of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers would keep salt water from intruding into the Delta Region. There are no good solutions to California's Delta Region water vulnerabilities, but a new $10 billion dollar canal that would route fresh water around the region is being proposed as a possible way Califoria could avoid losing its fresh water supply if a catatrophic failure of the Delta Region levees allowed salt water intrusion to occur.

A 2009 study by the California Department of Water Resources concluded:

The Delta Region as it exists today is unsustainable. Seismic risk, high water conditions, sea level rise and land subsidence threaten levee integrity. A seismic event is the single greatest risk to levee integrity in the Delta Region. If a major earthquake occurs, levees would fail and as many as 20 islands could be flooded simultaneously. This would result in economic costs and impacts of $15 billion or more. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to Delta Region levees, winter storms and related high water conditions are the most common cause of levee failures in the region. Under business-as-usual practices, high water conditions could cause about 140 levee failures in the Delta over the next 100 years. Multiple island failures caused by high water would but could still be extensive and could cause approximately $8 billion or more in economic costs and impacts. Dry-weather levee failures [also called sunny-day events] unrelated to earthquakes, such as from slumping or seepage, will continue to occur in the Delta about once every seven years. Costs to repair a single island flooded as the result of a dry-weather levee failure are expected to exceed $50 million. The risk of flooding in the Delta Region will only increase with time if current management practices are not changed. By the year 2100, Delta levee failure risks due to high water conditions will increase by 800 percent. The risk of levee failure from a major earthquake is projected to increase by 93 percent during the same period.


The ARkStorm scenario and Great Flood of 1862 are discussed in much more detail by weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post.


Figure 2. Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, 2004. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources. A 1997 flood in the Delta Region did $510 million damage, damaged or destroyed 32,000 homes and businesses, and left 120,000 homeless.

Wilma pounding New Zealand; Australia eyes two potential new tropical cyclones
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here. Activity has picked up markedly this week, with the formation of the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is currently pounding New Zealand's North Island with heavy rains and strong winds, and is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to skirt the west coast of Australia over the next few days and rapidly weaken, but could bring heavy rains to the coast near Perth when it makes landfall on Sunday as a tropical storm. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast by the European model to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction of such a storm forming. If the cyclone were to form, it would be a serious blow for Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Bianca, the globe's second major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 06:30 GMT on January 28, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Biana is expected to rapidly weaken and hit the Australian coast near Perth as a tropical storm on Sunday. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1055. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike, You are right its going to be a warm week in fl. A few showers or rain won't hurt anything. Had a great leaf burning on saturday how about you?
I did too. Thinking about getting my driveway fixed up soon. My yard slopes to a lake. My front yard needs to be leveled. My neighbors did it when they moved in a few years ago.

I've never done it, but it needs it. The rain has stopped here now. Gonna check my gauge.

............................................................

I had .23 inches of rain over night. My monthly total is at 3.61 inches.
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Quoting IKE:

I did on Saturday. Got my front yard in decent shape. Got into the low 70's here Saturday.

Morning Ike, You are right its going to be a warm week in fl. A few showers or rain won't hurt anything. Had a great leaf burning on saturday how about you?
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1053. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.....

 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 507 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011.DISCUSSION../506 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

 
...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM HEADED TOWARD THE REGION...

NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE OVERALL FROM THE PREV FCST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS MORNING. ONSET OF PRECIP IS DELAYED
SOMEWHAT AS ELY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. EXPECT FZRA/FZDZ TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS SHUD KEEP ICE ACCUMS TO A MIN FOR MUCH OF TODAY. A BRIEF LULL
IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
REORIENTED FURTHER SWD WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SOLNS FOR TUES MORNING AND THRU THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. THE
ECMWF/GEM MOVES PRECIP INTO THE REGION SOONER AND FURTHER NWD THAN
THESE MDLS AND HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THE OPR GFS SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN THE NAM/WRF
SOLN AND THE ECMWF/GEM...A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/WRF OFFERS ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST. GIVEN THE MAIN SYSTEM IS STILL 24
HRS AWAY...TRIED TO KEEP AS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AS POSSIBLE.

WHILE CURRENT FCST MAY HAVE CHANGED FROM THE PREV FCST AT ANY GIVEN
POINT...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET...ICE...OR BOTH.

MDLS STILL SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF TSSN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CWA TUES INTO TUES EVENING. EVEN WITHOUT TSSN...GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...MESOSCALE
BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT TS IN AREAS WHERE SLEET IS EXPECTED AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS EWD OUT OF THE REGION...STRONG NLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOFT SN INTO THE AIR CREATING BLOWING SN AS WELL AS
DRIFTS. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL LONG AFTER THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL HAS
ENDED. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH COLD AMBIENT TEMPS WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH
OF A COLUMBIA MO TO PITTSFIELD IL LINE.

FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREV FCST BEYOND WED.


TILLY

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1052. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Ike if I had to suffer thru that sorta weather, I think I'd be suicidal.

REAL glad you got outside over the weekend- wasn't it great?

zooming off to work- later ike
(waves at steamy shower stall where Nea is still showering)
Have a nice day.

Raining here now and 52.7 outside.
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1051. aquak9
Ike if I had to suffer thru that sorta weather, I think I'd be suicidal.

REAL glad you got outside over the weekend- wasn't it great?

zooming off to work- later ike
(waves at steamy shower stall where Nea is still showering)
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1049. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Ike I hope you got outside this weekend! it was great.
I did on Saturday. Got my front yard in decent shape. Got into the low 70's here Saturday.
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1048. IKE
I'm so glad I live down here where winter weather is minimal.
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1047. aquak9
Ike I hope you got outside this weekend! it was great.
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I agree.

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1045. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
ike- Dau's father now resides in Corpus Christi...and even he has three days of sleet/snoww in his forecast. So does Emmy in Houston.

I TRUST we will see none of that foolishness here in our fine state.

g'morning Nea. I played barefoot yesterday, outside. Hope you got some sunshine and outside time, too. It was beautiful.
Too warm here in Florida. Looks like a good week to take a vacation:)
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1044. aquak9
ike- Dau's father now resides in Corpus Christi...and even he has three days of sleet/snoww in his forecast. So does Emmy in Houston.

I TRUST we will see none of that foolishness here in our fine state.

g'morning Nea. I played barefoot yesterday, outside. Hope you got some sunshine and outside time, too. It was beautiful.
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1043. IKE
Want to see a terrible forecast? Read this one from Indianapolis,IN....

Today: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 1pm.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. East northeast wind between 10 and
13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Freezing
rain and sleet. Low around 24. East northeast wind around 14 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an
inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tuesday: Freezing
rain and sleet. High near 32. East northeast wind between 13 and 18
mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New
ice accumulation of 0.3 to 0.5 of an inch possible. Little or no snow
accumulation expected.

Tuesday Night: Freezing rain
before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 24.
Blustery, with a northeast wind between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts as
high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation
amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow
likely. Areas of blowing snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Blustery,
with a north northwest wind between 18 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as
33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts
between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Areas of blowing snow and a slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 2.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 22.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

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1042. IKE
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
244 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z WED FEB 02 2011

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS TAKING AIM AT THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW IS BLANKETING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FALL ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES. THE
CENTRAL U.S. SNOW SWATH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY MONDAY...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY LINKING UP WITH THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN INTENSIFYING
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE
AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE
INCREDIBLY STRONG SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY KICK STARTS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE GOING
TO QUICKLY INCREASE. MODERATE ICE AND SNOW WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. THE BAND OF ICING
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...BRINGING
DANGEROUS AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO SEVERAL LARGE
CITIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE
THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO GET IN ON THE WINTER WEATHER ACTION
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO NOSE ITS WAY OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STATES WILL BE IN THE MIX. AS THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO WRAP
UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY EVENING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL COVER MOST OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AND WILL BE POISED TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

COLLINS


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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1041. aquak9
this huge mess of a storm coming, is kinda depressing me. I won't discuss local conditions for fear of being shot.

I hope everyone is taking the precautions needed. Prayers yup for all in it's path.....this is gonna be a long week.
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1040. IKE
5 day QPF puts a bulls-eye here....
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Yesterday saw 52 record daily highs or high minimum temperatures (40 new, 12 tied) across the U.S., and no record lows or low maximums. Over the past five days, record highs have outnumbered record lows by 262 to 30. It's nice--for some of us, anyway--to see such moderate temps at the end of the coldest month of the year.

With the new Arctic blast this week driving temps into the single digits across parts of the lower Midwest, the balance should shift a bit, though it looks like Groundhog Day--Wednesday--will be the coldest.
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1038. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 31 2011
=================================

Warnings From Brisbane
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Yeppoon.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Three (975 hPa) located at 13.7S 162.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
40 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in the sectors from north through south to east.
60 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has improved significantly past 6 hours. Convection remains persistent in the last 6 hours. Primary band wrapped tightly around low level circulation center. System lies along a surface trough and under an diffluent region in a weak sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Outflow good. System is steered westward mainly by an easterly deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak assessment based on 1.40 LOG10 wrap yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

Global models further develops the cyclone and maintains a westward track.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 159.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 15.0S 155.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 17.2S 149.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 20.0S 143.6E - 50 knot (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting EnergyMoron:
Xyrus:

Historical Seismicity


You can see the New Madrid on the first of the two location plots. You can also see two seismic active areas north of Conway. Yes, there is active gas production in the Fayettville started circa 2005 or so.

1) Not New Madrid
2) There was already a history of seismic activity in Guy... further lending weight to it not being anthropogenic.

DFW 2009 earthquakes... highly likely (>99.99 certainty) anthropogenic.



I never claimed they were or that they would be. I only mentioned the NMF because I knew it was somewhere in the general vicinity and could easily explain the activity.

The Reelfoot Rift apparent;y was active through that area millions of years ago. Very very unlikely that the rift would be coming active again and only focusing on a rather small area.

The quakes don't appear to be associated with any fault lines and are fairly deep, which seems to imply aftershock settling form the big quakes that rocked the area back in the 1800's. Other than the NMF there hasn't been any significant seismic activity in the area.
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Quoting Grothar:


I have always wondered if the tremendous spike in the world population could have an anthropegenic cause.
Hehe. Not bad, Gro.
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Quoting Grothar:


I have always wondered...


Ethanol revolutions (seriously)

Egypt

In Roman republican times Tunisia was the breadbasket of the republic. In imperial times Egypt was the breadbasket of the dictatorship (what should I call it?)

Now, food riots.

Climate's been changing there folks for 2 millenia... not anthropogenic but there is a serious lack of adaptation going on.
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Baralaba Mine , Australia
Jan 7 , 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1dnsycB1JM&feature=related
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---
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Quoting Grothar:


Wie, mij? Ik heb geen woord gezegd. HA


Maar het windt altijd waait. Je weet wel wat ik bedoel :)
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1031. Grothar
Quoting EnergyMoron:
Xyrus:

Historical Seismicity


You can see the New Madrid on the first of the two location plots. You can also see two seismic active areas north of Conway. Yes, there is active gas production in the Fayettville started circa 2005 or so.

1) Not New Madrid
2) There was already a history of seismic activity in Guy... further lending weight to it not being anthropogenic.

DFW 2009 earthquakes... highly likely (>99.99 certainty) anthropogenic.


I have always wondered if the tremendous spike in the world population could have an anthropegenic cause.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
? Not that cold...just winter-ish. Right?


Very good... just the whimpy cold front and not the siberia express events we had in the 80s....

I remember pulling a near all nighter (I went to Rice I must be a moron) when doing my thesis... it was 70 or so when I left and 13 or so when I had to walk to my car... now that is serious cold...

A few nights of 27... I have some baby plants and the winter garden so it will need attention.
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This exactly where the rains in Philippines have been falling :
Expect heavy rains starting tomorrow, Monday, as a low pressure area
is expected to reach the Philippine’s tonight and develop into a storm.
Dubbed as the first typhoon of the year 2011, “Amang” will bring
heavy rains, and if its path continues, will reach Cebu by Wednesday,
said Mactan chief Oscar Tabada of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/ cebudailynews/ news/ view/ 20110130-317436/ 2011s-first-cyclone-may–reach-Cebu-by-Wednesday–Pagasa
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Xyrus:

Historical Seismicity


You can see the New Madrid on the first of the two location plots. You can also see two seismic active areas north of Conway. Yes, there is active gas production in the Fayettville started circa 2005 or so.

1) Not New Madrid
2) There was already a history of seismic activity in Guy... further lending weight to it not being anthropogenic.

DFW 2009 earthquakes... highly likely (>99.99 certainty) anthropogenic.
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1027. Grothar
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Srew this I'm going to sleep.And one more thing.Yasi needs to be destroyed asap!!
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


Getting ready to be very cold midweek :)
? Not that cold...just winter-ish. Right?
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1024. Grothar
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Since Dutch is a throat disease...

Gro, je een scheet laat als een ossgss


Wie, mij? Ik heb geen woord gezegd. HA
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1023. Patrap
G'night wunderland..
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Quoting Patrap:

Grothar throwing his underwear at his computer.



So that was what that was...

Mom liked Tom big time.
Why did I just finish vomiting???
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Sure, there is. How ya doing, moron? (oops)

(purely friendly, guys)
Woah 3x rain don't mean a thang.Please don't ask.I just finhsed watching an episode of atlanta housewives.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO
How's high school?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Sure, there is. How ya doing, moron? (oops)

(purely friendly, guys)


Getting ready to be very cold midweek :)
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1019. Patrap

Grothar throwing his underwear at his computer.



So that was what that was...

Mom liked Tom big time.
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1018. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


That was going back some.
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Quoting Patrap:


Grothar throwing his underwear at his computer.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Cake recipes sound vicious in German...
LMAO
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Tropical cyclone Wilma caused two months of rain to fall in 12 hours in Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Waikato causing widespread flooding, slips and power outages.


Here
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Quoting EnergyMoron:
Good night... nothing else to see except name calling here tonight.
Sure, there is. How ya doing, moron? (oops)

(purely friendly, guys)
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Has ya snow melted yet? Maybe more coming....they say..
Nope :).But it is falling of trees,and posing a danger.Half of the tree in my yard even snapped.
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Quoting Grothar:
Actually, it is better to insult someone in German. It scares them more. If one does it in Norwegian or Swedish, it sounds like were singing to them.


Since Dutch is a throat disease...

Gro, je een scheet laat als een ossgss
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1010. Patrap
Yasi

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1009. Skyepony (Mod)
Boliva getting in on the extreme flooding..

According to recent reports, more than 30 people were killed in a flash flood of a river in south-eastern Bolivia, triggered by torrential rains. On Saturday night the Mollepunko river burst its banks. As a result, water descended upon the highway, overturning a truck and bus. So far rescuers have found 34 bodies, 13 people were rescued. A few more passengers are listed as missing.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


What are the depths and locations of those quakes?

Main reason why I ask is because the new madrid fault line runs through the area and it's been a while since that thing has let go. Could be the recent grumbles may be letting off some pent up energy or it's preparing to let go.

If those quakes are deeper, it's probably the fault.


Friday night was nice... everybody was being pretty polite... good job.

About 6 km.

USGS info

Precisely... I like your watching the watts on the LEDs (oh... better not say that... some might assume we are on the watts up site).

My job is if it is anthropogenic to say so... not something folks like to hear. We had something that was caught in time just happen and even then folks are not too happy when they find out what is going on...

It's deep... ain't anthropogenic.

Cleburn also had a swarm like this about a decade ago (ain't looking it up... roughly).

This isn't New Madrid associated stuff, don't worry.

Here is one that did catch my eye... did somebody set off dynamite or something? 100 meters?

Not associated with the swarm

Good night... nothing else to see except name calling here tonight.
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1007. Patrap
Jeeeesus,

Look at the Size of Yasi's Wind Field


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
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Anthony's totals -

6am: HEAVY rain of up to 361mm has occurred over the Central Coast and northern Central Highlands and Coalfields districts after Cyclone Anthony crossed the Queensland coast near Bowen overnight.
http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/ story/ 2011/ 01/ 31/ heavy-rain-warning-after-361mm-fall-overnight/
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It brings back memories as a kid,with all the thundrstorms.It also reminds me of Poltergist.


Has ya snow melted yet? Maybe more coming....they say..
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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