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Another flooding mega-disaster: Sri Lanka recovers from extreme flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 PM GMT on January 19, 2011

At least 43 are dead and thousands still in refugee camps due to extreme flooding in eastern Sri Lanka caused by record monsoon rains. According to the United Nations, the rains in recent weeks in Sri Lanka have been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Sri Lanka's previous most devastating flooding disaster was the 2004 tsunami, but as The Economist commented, "in terms of the numbers of people displaced and farmland inundated, the floods have been even more devastating than the tsunami of December 2004." Damage estimates start at $500 million, and much of Sri Lanka's agriculture has been severely damaged by the disaster. Also of concern is the large number of land mines from the recent Sri Lanka civil war that may have been unearthed by the floods. Water is also a major concern in the flood-hit area, as fighting between government forces and Tamil Tigers rebels from mid-2007 to May 2009 damaged or destroyed almost all of the water facilities.


Figure 1. A family affected by the 2011 Sri Lanka floods braves the flood waters. Image credit: United Nations.

Sri Lanka is now the fifth nation in the past six month to suffer a flooding disaster unprecedented in its history. As I reported in a previous post, the other four mega-impact floods--the July 2010 Pakistan floods, the December - January Queensland Australia floods, the November 2010 Colombia floods, and the January 2011 Rio de Janeiro floods--were all accompanied by an atmosphere laden with moisture, due, in part, due to sea surface temperatures over nearby ocean areas that were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record. However, that was not the case for the Sri Lanka floods. Ocean temperatures during December 2010 were 0.2°C below average in the 5x5 degree square of ocean adjoining the island (5N - 10N, 80E - 85E). The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated precipitation over Sri Lanka for January 3 - 9. Up to 18 inches (525 mm) fell over eastern Sri Lanka. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting Surfcropper:


Concrete was invented in the Roman empire in the middle of the first century a.d. Ceasar Nero rebuilt half of Rome with concrete after a massive fire in 64 a.d.

That's almost two thousand years of concrete manufacturing.

Wait a second. The big pyramids at Giza are made of concrete. It predates the Romans.
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Australia's Flood Pain
January 19, 2011
Author:
Toni Johnson, Senior Staff Writer


The flooding in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia that began in early January has been called one of the country's worst natural disasters and is expected to continue into next week. The flood may wash away any hopes the country had for achieving a budget surplus in 2012-2013. Clean-up is so far estimated at more than $20 billion, with the government footing as much as 75 percent of reconstruction costs (Telegraph). Rebuilding also could test the country's already tight labor market (WSJ). "Before the global financial crisis, there was almost daily news about projects having to be deferred due to lack of staff," said Peter Taylor with the industry group Engineers Australia. "You can expect some of that again."

According to Australian economist Saul Eslake, the country is likely to see other economic consequences (SydneyMorningHerald), including the loss of an estimated $6 billion production income, mostly from the agriculture and mining sectors. The region exports nearly two-thirds of the world's coking coal, but about 60 percent of coal mines have closed due to flooding. Global coking coal prices rose 55 percent in past week (FT).
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Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting this site seemingly prohibits embedding the video. LOL!!! Have Fun!

The new YouTube embed code uses the HTML IFRAME element, which many sites--including this one--disallow for security reasons. You can select the "Use old embed code" checkbox on YouTube when getting that code...
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For entertainment purposes only :)

Before some complain of the Greenland item, look up the DNA taken out of ice cores that show bugs, flora and fauna in the mud. Then perhaps you might want to check on the fossilized remnants of tree's on Greenlands Northern Coast, just to check the ~!

Interesting this site seemingly prohibits embedding the video. LOL!!! Have Fun!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao

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Climate change may affect arctic biodiversity
Local scientists pool knowledge in science journal article

By Jonathan Grass | JUNEAU EMPIRE



By Jonathan Grass | JUNEAU EMPIRE

Three local scientists merged their studies to provide a look at how the changing arctic environment can affect species through hybridization. Their work led to a commentary article published last month in Nature, an international science journal.

The lead author on the article, titled “The Arctic Melting Pot,” was Brendan Kelly, who was working at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Mammal Laboratory. The other authors are David Tallmon of the University of Alaska Southeast’s biology and marine biology faculty and Andrew Whiteley of the Department of Environmental Conservation at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Whiteley worked with Tallmon on post-graduate studies at UAS when they began efforts in this study. The research leading to the article took a couple years to complete.

Their article examines how climate changes can be influential for species to cross-breed, creating hybrids for offspring. Such hybrids have been evident in arctic bears, whales, porpoises, seals and other mammals. They found that large losses of sea ice removed continent-sized barriers against interbreeding. The article describes how this can sometimes create new species, but is most often harmful to the populations for the existing ones.

“Our research should serve as a cautionary note. We don't know how Arctic ice loss will affect species, but the evidence suggests hybridization may be an additional threat to Arctic lineages that scientists and policymakers should consider. Up to this point, no one seems to have considered this threat,” Tallmon said in an e-mail.

The article states hybridization can result from several factors, both natural and human-caused, that affect environments over time. Tallmon said habitat change is the most important factor in hybridization.

“What we did was look at all of this and see if it reflects the environmental change,” said Kelly. “Hybridization is particularly inclined during environmental changes.”

Kelly, who just left Juneau to become the deputy director of the Division of Arctic Sciences at the National Science Foundation, said the danger is that declining species that interbreed can die out. He gave an example of how polar bears in Alaska are in low density and can be inclined to mate with grizzlies as sea ice loss can encourage them to spend more time on the coast.

“Hybridization is a threat for those species that are reduced in number and come into contact with closely related, more common species. Essentially, the more numerous species can absorb a less common one by breeding with it until the less common one is gone,” Tallmon said. “There are more subtle things that can happen along the way, but the outcome is that diversity is lost because an evolutionary lineage that has evolved independently over time along a given trajectory is absorbed by another lineage.”

Besides losing species diversity, he said hybrids can result in decreased genetic fitness, which can be less obvious. This is because a hybrid is not naturally adapted to both of its parents’ environments.

The authors found social and ecological behaviors can be affected as well.

However, they state that hybridization is not always a bad thing, as it can lead to new species or evolutionary novelties, thus increasing diversity.

Kelly said it’s more common when species of different population sizes interbreed for the lower population to die out.

“If their density becomes low, their probability to hybridization can increase,” he said.

Kelly and Tallmon said a number of species in Alaska show evidence of interbreeding, such as polar and grizzly bears or spotted and ribbon seals. Kelly said that crosses of Dall’s porpoises and harbor porpoises in British Columbia are the only kind he’s found around Southeast.

Tallmon said they looked through extensive scientific literature and museum collections for hybridization examples while studying the genetic compositions of Artcic mammals to see if hybrids were possible.

“We found 28 examples where hybridization might occur if formerly disjunct lineages are brought into contact by sea ice loss,” he said.

Kelly said tissue samples that confirm hybrid DNA can be rare.

Kelly said views on hybridization can often come from how much one values species diversity. He said this can be an important issue for subsistence hunters.

The authors recommend researchers combine models of sea ice loss, oceanography and landscape sciences to help predict where hybridization is more likely to occur and monitor at-risk species’ genetics. They conclude that national and tribal governments should work together to do such monitoring and hybrid prevention.

“One thing we wanted to do was get people to think about this. What we were trying to do is raise awareness in this article, and we should make some decisions,” Kelly said.

• Contact reporter Jonathan Grass at 523-2276 or jonathan.grass@juneauempire.com.
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Loss of Reflectivity in the Arctic Doubles Estimate of Climate Models
Link

ScienceDaily (Jan. 18, 2011) %u2014 A new analysis of the Northern Hemisphere's "albedo feedback" over a 30-year period concludes that the region's loss of reflectivity due to snow and sea ice decline is more than double what state-of-the-art climate models estimate.

The findings are important, researchers say, because they suggest that Arctic warming amplified by the loss of reflectivity could be even more significant than previously thought.

The study was published online this week in Nature Geoscience. It was funded primarily by the National Science Foundation, with data also culled from projects funded by NASA, the Department of Energy and others.

During the 30-year study period, cryosphere cooling declined by 0.45 watts per meter squared. The authors attribute that decline equally to loss of snow and sea ice.
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Thursday, Jan. 20, 2011

The price of climate change?

By MICHAEL RICHARDSON





SINGAPORE — Generations of Australians have learned that their island-continent is a land of alternating droughts and floods. Recent prolonged rain and devastating flooding across eastern Australia, particularly in the state of Queensland, underscore this heartbreaking cycle.

Weather experts say that the immediate cause is natural: a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature of the central Pacific Ocean along the equator and in air pressure of the atmosphere above. Known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it affects weather patterns in many parts of the Pacific, including Australia and Southeast Asia.

However, there are also signs that that ENSO itself may be affected by man-made climate change. As Queensland counts the heavy financial cost, some fear that the economic disruption and damage to industry and infrastructure may be repeated more often and more intensely in Australia in future. Losses to the Queensland economy and the cleanup bill are expected to exceed $10 billion. The national growth rate may also take a hit. Queensland is Australia's largest coal exporter — mainly to Asia — and accounts for about 20 percent of the country's $1.2 trillion economy, which relies heavily on mineral, energy and farm exports.

ENSO has two extreme phases in its typical seesaw every three to eight years. One, El Nino, is associated with hotter than normal temperatures and diminished rainfall. The other, La Nina, usually brings above-average wet weather and lower temperatures.

The Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology said earlier this month that the La Nina phase bringing the deluge to eastern Australia was the strongest since at least the mid-1970s. As a result, Australia had its third wettest year on record in 2010.

Indonesia's Met Office reported recently that rain across the far-flung island-nation would continue until June. It said the dry season, which normally starts in April and lasts until October, would only start in July. Meanwhile, Brazil and Sri Lanka have been hit by unusually heavy and damaging downpours, just as northern Europe and much of the United States feel the bite of abnormally frigid winter weather.

Despite these bursts of wet and cold weather, two leading U.S. climate agencies said on Jan. 12 that the average land and sea surface temperature last year tied with 2005 as the warmest on record since data collection started in 1880. The global temperature was 0.62 degree Celsius above the 20th-century average.

Attributed by many scientists to the growing release of carbon dioxide, methane and other global-warming gases from human activity into the atmosphere, this temperature rise is happening at the same as the natural ENSO cycle. James Hansen, director of one of the U.S. climate agencies, said that the average global temperature increased as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with ENSO.

A summary on the state of the Australian climate published last year by the Met Bureau and the CSIRO, Australia's leading scientific research organization, said that in the past 50 years the mean temperature in Australia had risen by about 0.7 C and was projected to increase further by 0.6 to 1.5 C by 2030. It said that if global greenhouse gas emissions continued to grow at business-as-usual rates, Australia could be 2.2 to 5.0 C hotter by 2070.

Scientists say that the warming trend increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and floods. In addition to being the equal hottest year ever, 2010 was also the wettest on record. A hotter world causes more evaporation from land and oceans. A warmer atmosphere holds and releases more water, which can mean more violent storms and bigger floods.

The equatorial expanse of the Pacific, which is far larger than the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of ENSO. During La Nina, trade winds blowing west bring moist air to northern Australia and Indonesia. Heated by the tropical sun and warm water, the air rises to create towering bulbous clouds and heavy rainfall.

A question that must concern Australia and Southeast Asia is whether man-made global warming from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests is intensifying natural weather patterns like ENSO and, if so, how?

It is clear that if an exceptionally dry El Nino phase occurs against the backdrop of long-term man-made global warming, one will make the other hotter. This happened in Indonesia in 1997-98 during the Asian financial crisis when forest fires spread haze pollution across Southeast Asia.

Some scientists also think that there is a link between rising global sea temperature and the strength of ENSO cycles. The annual climate statement by the Australian Met Bureau, issued on Jan. 5, noted that sea-surface temperatures in the Australian region last year were the warmest on record, 0.54 C above the 1961 to 1990 average. The last decade was also the warmest on record for sea surface temperatures. The statement added that "very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring."

Echoing the scientific panel advising the United Nations on climate change, the Australian Met Bureau-CSIRO assessment for 2010 said that there was a greater than 90 percent certainty that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the global warming since the mid-20th century.

If those who believe that man-made global warming gases are intensifying extreme ENSO weather are right, the flood devastation in Australia is a warning that we upset the complex climate system at our own peril.
Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
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Thaw of Earth's icy sunshade may stoke warming Link

By Alister Doyle, Environment CorrespondentPosted 2011/01/16 at 3:45 pm EST

OSLO, Jan. 16, 2011 (Reuters) %u2014 Shrinking ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is reflecting ever less sunshine back into space in a previously underestimated mechanism that could add to global warming, a study showed.

Satellite data indicated that Arctic sea ice, glaciers, winter snow and Greenland's ice were bouncing less energy back to space from 1979 to 2008. The dwindling white sunshade exposes ground or water, both of which are darker and absorb more heat.

The study estimated that ice and snow in the Northern Hemisphere were now reflecting on average 3.3 watts per square meter of solar energy back to the upper atmosphere, a reduction of 0.45 watt per square meter since the late 1970s.

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Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
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Scientists Uncover Solar Cycle, Stratosphere, and Ocean Connections
August 27, 2009

Subtle connections between the 11-year solar cycle, the stratosphere, and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research appearing this week in the journal Science. The study can help scientists get an edge on eventually predicting the intensity of certain climate phenomena, such as the Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall, years in advance.

An international team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used more than a century of weather observations and three powerful computer models to tackle one of the more difficult questions in meteorology: if the total energy that reaches Earth from the Sun varies by only 0.1 percent across the approximately 11-year solar cycle, how can such a small variation drive major changes in weather patterns on Earth?

The answer, according to the new study, has to do with the Sun's impact on two seemingly unrelated regions. Chemicals in the stratosphere and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean respond during solar maximum in a way that amplifies the Sun's influence on some aspects of air movement. This can intensify winds and rainfall, change sea surface temperatures and cloud cover over certain tropical and subtropical regions, and ultimately influence global weather.

Link
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Reality Check...again


Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:

Looks flat-lined to me. ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting doorman79:
just stopped by, thought I would say hello!

So,

Wazzzzz up!!!!!!! ;)

Atmo, I was up your way yesterday when the rain came through. The rain was horizontal at times.
Hey, there.

(horizontal) That, it was!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
337. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
Reality Check.


Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.

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That Squall line had gusts to 50mph and some Awful Rain Rates for about a Half hour as it blew on thru.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
just stopped by, thought I would say hello!

So,

Wazzzzz up!!!!!!! ;)

Atmo, I was up your way yesterday when the rain came through. The rain was horizontal at times.
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..and you may still be changing oil at Jiffy Lube.

LOL

As there's a flood out in California
And up North it's freezing cold
And this living on the road
Is getting pretty old
So I guess, I'll call up my big mama
Tell her I'll be rolling in
But you know, deep down
I'm kind of tempted
To go and see my Bessie again
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Quoting racer925:
To all out there claiming it is all man made global warming, think about the little Ice Age we are coming out of. It ended 150 years ago, thus the planet is warming up. All of our records are from the tail end of the little ice age through the first part of us coming out of it. Just remember England had great vineyards prior to the little ice age. England still can not support the great vineyards like it did pre-1400.
That said the earth is warming up and man maybe accellerating it. We need to do what we can and in reasonable to not pollute the earth and come up with renewable energy because with in the next 50 years we won't have oil to live off of like we do today.
Check out this link:
New World Post-Pandemic Reforestation Helped Start Little Ice Age, Say Scientists

Stanford University researchers have conducted a comprehensive analysis of data detailing the amount of charcoal contained in soils and lake sediments at the sites of both pre-Columbian population centers in the Americas and in sparsely populated surrounding regions. They concluded that reforestation of agricultural lands%u2014abandoned as the population collapsed%u2014pulled so much carbon out of the atmosphere that it helped trigger a period of global cooling, at its most intense from approximately 1500 to 1750, known as the Little Ice Age.
So part of the 'little ice age' can be attributed to the reforestation in the Americas.

There're other reasons for the little ice age, as is mentioned here:
Other theories have been proposed to account for the cooling at the time of the Little Ice Age, as well as the anomalies in the concentration and carbon isotope ratios of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with that period.

Variations in the amount of sunlight striking the Earth, caused by a drop in sunspot activity, could also be a factor in cooling down the globe, as could a flurry of volcanic activity in the late 16th century.

But the timing of these events doesn't fit with the observed onset of the carbon dioxide drop. These events don't begin until at least a century after carbon dioxide in the atmosphere began to decline and the ratio of heavy to light carbon isotopes in atmospheric carbon dioxide begins to increase.

Nevle and Bird don't attribute all of the cooling during the Little Ice Age to reforestation in the Americas.

"There are other causes at play," Nevle said. "But reforestation is certainly a first-order contributor."
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Levi, the Northeast (or Repeating, or Winter) Monsoon is a standard winter feature for Sri Lanka (and other areas in and around the Indian Ocean). Up to 70% of that nation's annual rain falls during that time.

More...
More...
More...
Aha. So, not a "classical" monsoon, but a normal winter monsoon for Sri Lanka.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
327. xcool
burned the winter forecast, though December and then mid Feb into March did have alot of winter. The thing that gnaws in my gut to this very day was the fact that I had one of the three analogs, 33-34 and had it researched, that I could have used to catch it, and did not. I blended analogs, came up with a mid ground and stuck with it. Like this year, almost all of Asia turned frigid ( again no graphic) , but I will have that on the video tomorrow, but north America turned warm. Unlike that year, we have a cold PDO, low solar and previous volcanic activity in the arctic that supplied the chance to hit this, so much so that I pointed out the fly in the ointment, the La Freaka seasons of 1916-1917, 1917-1918 as something that was of concern. Then why didnt I use it?



It was a major outlier for one,and data was sparse for two. Even now, there are explanations being given that range from low solar to the very strength of the La Nina itself. I personally feel the latter is unlikely, one does intensify a signal for southern and eastern US warmth and expect it to turn colder. However the combination of events.. low solar, previous volcanic activity, the rapid drop of global temps with a cold PDO, not warm, and stochastic forcing ( random reactions to previous events) may all have something to do with this. In any case one can look for temps from the northern and central plains east to run below normal into and through much of February, with warmth over the interior southwest trying to come out into Texas. A period where the weather does break and it turns warmer in the areas targeted for that may occur later in Feb into March, but a cold and storm mid and late March into April should develop across the northern part of the nation. The northeast and lakes, which had the warmest March and April back to back last year on record will be far from it this year.



While Feb will not be as cold and snowy for the south and east as last year, it will still be more wintery than I had it portrayed, though again, the biggest snowstorms as is now becoming obvious will be mainly north of I-40 in the plains, the Ohio river and Mason Dixon line further east. In the end, the mid and late winter "battle ground" that was highlighted will still be there ( its actually showing its colors already) but lined up south of the axis I had, more like a center point of Amarillo to Atlantic City than Denver to Durham New Hampshire.


by joe b
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To all out there claiming it is all man made global warming, think about the little Ice Age we are coming out of. It ended 150 years ago, thus the planet is warming up. All of our records are from the tail end of the little ice age through the first part of us coming out of it. Just remember England had great vineyards prior to the little ice age. England still can not support the great vineyards like it did pre-1400.
That said the earth is warming up and man maybe accellerating it. We need to do what we can and in reasonable to not pollute the earth and come up with renewable energy because with in the next 50 years we won't have oil to live off of like we do today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Semi-glossed ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, good point!

Glossed right over that, myself...

Please see post 322.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
"The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Ni%uFFFDa event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.

That is unlikely. There is nothing monsoonal about normal northeast trade winds. In January, the monsoon trough is located south of the equator near 10S, as the monsoonal northwesterlies in the Indian Ocean collide with the southeasterly trade winds in the Southern hemisphere.

January Climatological Surface Winds:


NOAA ESRL NCEP Reanalysis

Also, the normal precipitation pattern for January clearly shows the axis of monsoonal rains well south of Sri Lanka. That is not to say that they don't get rain in January, but it is not from the monsoon, which is in the southern hemisphere at this time of year.

January Climatological Precipitation:


JRA-25 Climatology Atlas

Levi, the Northeast (or Repeating, or Winter) Monsoon is a standard winter feature for Sri Lanka (and other areas in and around the Indian Ocean). Up to 70% of that nation's annual rain falls during that time.

More...
More...
More...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
El Niño and La Niña, monsoonal rains, and tropical storms played large roles in some of the extreme precipitation patterns observed during the 2010 year-to-date. During the year, numerous tropical cyclones brought copious amounts of rain to various regions around the world, including northern Australia, southern and eastern Asia, Mexico, and most of Central America. Please visit NCDC's Global Hazards and Hurricanes & Tropical Storms web pages for more detailed information about specific storms.



Canada experienced its driest winter (December 2009–February 2010) since national records began in 1948, with 22 percent below-average precipitation. According to Environment Canada, many locations across Ontario, Canada received no snow or traces of snow during March 2010, setting new low snowfall records. Toronto City, which typically receives 22 cm (8.7 inches) of snow during March recorded no snow this year. This broke the low snowfall record which dates as far back as 1898. To the west, Alaska had its third driest January on record since 1918.
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Global Precipitation


Global precipitation in 2010 was well above the 1961–1990 average, ranking as the wettest on record since 1900. Precipitation throughout the year was variable in many areas. Regionally, drier than average conditions were widespread across much of French Polynesia, the Solomon Islands, Hawaiian Islands, northwestern Canada, extreme northwest and northeast Brazil, and southern Peru. The wettest regions included most of Central America, much of India, southwestern China, east Asia, Borneo, and parts of Australia.



January–December 2010 Global Precipitation Anomalies
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State of the Climate
Global Analysis
Annual 2010
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Global Highlights

* For 2010, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record, at 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). 1998 is the third warmest year-to-date on record, at 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average.

* The 2010 Northern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest year on record, at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average. The 2010 Southern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the sixth warmest year on record, at 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average.

* The global land surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the second warmest on record, at 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average. The warmest such period on record occurred in 2007, at 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average.

* The global ocean surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average.

* In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which influences temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. A moderate-to-strong El Niño at the beginning of the year transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.

Please Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective with the July 2009 State of the Climate Report, NCDC transitioned to the new version (version 3b) of the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. ERSST.v3b is an improved extended SST reconstruction over version 2. This report uses the ERSST.v3b dataset to assess the entire year. Therefore, values for individual months of January-June presented in this report may differ slightly from those reported when ERSST.v2 was the operational dataset. For more information about the differences between ERSST.v3b and ERSST.v2 and to access the most current data, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
Global Temperatures

The year 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average. The range associated with this value is plus or minus 0.07°C (0.13°F). The 2010 combined land and ocean surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also the warmest on record, while the combined land and ocean surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere was the sixth warmest such period on record. The annual globally averaged land temperature was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above average, which tied with 2005 as the second warmest year record. The range associated with this value is plus or minus 0.11°C (0.20°F). The warmest year was 2007, at 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average. The decadal global land and ocean average temperature anomaly for 2001–2010 was the warmest decade on record for the globe, with a surface global temperature of 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the 20th century average. This surpassed the previous decadal record (1991–2000) value of 0.36°C (0.65°F).

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns in many parts of the world. The year began in a moderate-to-stong warm (El Niño) phase. The globally averaged January ocean surface temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 1998—a year that also began with a strong El Niño. Temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific declined through the year, although the ENSO warm phase offically remained through April. The global ocean surface temperatures for the period January–April were the second warmest on record, behind 1998. In May, sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled below the El Niño threshold (0.5°C), signifying a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. By July, ENSO officially shifted into a cold (La Niña) phase as the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to cool to below-average temperatures. With La Niña firmly in place, and central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures continuing to cool, the globally averaged ocean temperature for the period September–November was tenth warmest on record. For the period January–December, the shift from a warm phase to a cold phase ENSO contributed to a globally averaged ocean surface temperature anomaly of 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2005 as the third warmest such period on record. The range associated with this value is plus or minus 0.06°C (0.11°F). 2003 and 1998 tied for the warmest years on record, at 0.51°C (0.92°F) above average. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña was expected to peak during the end of 2010 into early 2011 and last at into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011 with a lesser intensity.

2010 Global Significant Weather and Climate Events
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
"The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.

That is unlikely. There is nothing monsoonal about normal northeast trade winds. In January, the monsoon trough is located south of the equator near 10S, as the monsoonal northwesterlies in the Indian Ocean collide with the southeasterly trade winds in the Southern hemisphere.

January Climatological Surface Winds:


NOAA ESRL NCEP Reanalysis

Also, the normal precipitation pattern for January clearly shows the axis of monsoonal rains well south of Sri Lanka. That is not to say that they don't get rain in January, but it is not from the monsoon, which is in the southern hemisphere at this time of year.

January Climatological Precipitation:


JRA-25 Climatology Atlas
Hey, good point!

Glossed right over that, myself...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Climate Change and species migration


[PDF]
migratory species and climate change
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
Disrupted breeding, barriers to migration and increased disease transmission are just some of the threats migratory species face from Climate Change. ...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Is global warming affecting a change in the seasons?

Global warming is affecting the seasons. Autumn and winter are coming later in many places; spring is coming earlier. If you look at a typical lake or maybe a stream in the far North it melts earlier in the spring and it freezes later in the fall. The very timing of the seasons is changing such that the food sources for some insects and birds are not in the places they are supposed to be when the migrations of these creatures arrive at the place where they are expected to be fed. And so, the very timing of nature and the seasons is being upset by global warming.

If this is true, a valid question would be:

Is GW going to alter Hurricane Seasons? Are we going to see hurricanes more frequent in off season months?

Time will tell us the anwser....

Actual Data - How many hurricanes have there been in each month?

Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
No its not.Ya just gotta be more...mm,open!!


LOL...never heard that before ! Thanks
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Must be me :(
No its not.Ya just gotta be more...mm,open!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
February Blast


Shhhhhh.....
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306

They should probably talk with DR. Phil (is he a climatologist or meteorologist?)about the extent of warming, in that timeframe, shown in those graphs. He does not agree :)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm
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Must be me :(
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Seems one can rattle a Whole State into a sad reality of themselves.

LOL

Sarah,your constituents deserved you.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
what happen
was there a mass banning
real quiet
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