Subtropical Depression 22; Stan's death toll 1500 and rising

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2005

Subtropical Tropical Depression 22 formed from a non-tropical low 300 miles southeast of Bermuda. This low is not entirely tropical in nature--there are some substantial horizontal changes in temperature like one finds in regular mid-latitude low pressure systems, and the maximum winds are found in a curved band to the storm's northeast, well away from the center. Storms of this nature are called subtropical. If this system continues to intensify and attain maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, it wil be named Subtropical Storm Vince. See the Hurricane FAQ for more information on subtropical storms.

Wind shear over the system is about 10 knots today, which is slightly favorable for tropical storm development. However, in the noon to 1 pm EDT time frame, wind shear from the southeast increased and blew the deep convection away from the center, which was exposed. The center re-formed to the northwest under the deepest convection, and now TD 22 is looking more tropical, with the circulation center positioned beneath the main convection. Wind shear is expected to fluctuate around 10 knots through Monday, which should allow some slow intensification. After that time, higher shear is expected. TD 22 is over water of 26 - 27C, which is just warm enough to support a tropical storm. However, its current track will push the storm just south of Bermuda on Sunday, where water temperatures fall below 26C, which may cause some temporary weakening before the waters warm up again. By Tuesday, when the storm is expected to turn north, water temperatures again fall below 26C, and slow weakening should result. However, the forecast beyond three days has a higher than usual level of uncertainty, because most of the computer models are forecasting that a second tropical cyclone may form behind TD 22 by Monday and steer the storm more to the west. In any case, intensification beyond a strong tropical storm is unlikely given the marginal sea surface temperatures and wind shear.

Figure 1.Sea Surface temperatures below TD 22 are just barely high enough to support a tropical storm. The blue color (26C) is the dividing line between temperatures that are warm enough and not warm enough to support a tropical storm.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown disorganized today, and now has 20 knots of shear over it. Development is not expected through Sunday of this system.

Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time, with over 1500 deaths caused. The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala. In a freakish double whammy, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala Friday, causing additional damage, but no deaths. Also bizzare is the volcanic eruption that occured during the height of Stan rains in El Salvador on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens. When you add these events to the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that rocked Taiwan at the height of Tyhoon Longwang on October 1, one might wonder if there is a connection between seismic activity and hurricane activity! There isn't.

October outlook
Historically, 20% of all Atlantic tropical storms have occured in the month of October. In a nomal year, this means we can expect two tropical storms, one of which becomes a hurricane. According to Dr. Bill Gray's October 2005 hurricane forecast issued on October 3, this year we can expect an above average October, with three tropical storms, two of which become hurricanes--one of those a major hurricane. We have already had two named storms this month, Stan and Tammy. Vince seems like a good bet by Sunday. Long range computer model forecasts continue to show that conditions for breeding tropical storms will be excellent until at least the last week of October, so two more named storms--Vince and Wilma--will likely result by October 21. This would tie 2005 with 1933 as the busiest hurricane season ever. It is interesting to note that in 1933, the final three storms all showed up after October 25. If 2005 follows a similar pattern, we'll have Alpha, Beta and Gamma in addition to Vince and Wilma before it's all over. Dr. Bill Gray is not forecasting any November storms to form. However, we should get at least one, given the current pattern and continued above-normal sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic.

Figure 2. Typical tropical storm formation areas for October.

The next update will be Sunday around 11 am, or later today if something interesting happens.

Jeff Masters

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110. Skyepony (Mod)
12:21 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
what? I just got back, seen nothin but Jeff's invest model up top. What is those models doin puttin lines all around here?
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109. guygee
10:18 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
No Primez, but thanks!
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108. guygee
10:11 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well maybe skyepony checked out, so some a parting observations.

The elongated longitidunal upper high over the West Atlantic is supposed to retrograde, and I see the most serious upcoming threat being the large ULL centered around 26.3N, 60.1W becoming warm core, resulting in a situation not unlike the one that produced Tammmy, only this ULL is larger. Usually with a tropical ULL it is either pretty dry or you may see upper divergence storms on the east or southeast side (depending on surrounding systems, of course). I think the sign of becoming warm core are a ring of convection forming completely around the low, followed by increasing moisture and convection in the center.

As for STD22, it seems like small potatoes, and I can't see how it will not continue to rotate around the periphery of the ULL, at least until it gets near the West Atlantic surface trough-ULH system. Since ULL is moving pretty much due west, I think GFDL has best handle on it (center reformations aside), but I wouldn't be surprised to see motion South of West.

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107. primez
10:15 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Guys, you do realize that there is a new blog entry, right?
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106. weatherwannabe
10:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
lefty this is getting boring. When is your cat 3+ gonna strike?
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105. seflagamma
5:01 PM EST on October 08, 2005
Guygee, you're right. I read my posts after I sent send and cannot belive I let lose communications that have mispelled words and incorrect grammer, etc...type so fast that I count on spell check to catch it all.

Gordon was a looper. I have a print out of Gordon's track from beginning to end I was showing someone last week. It should have been retired.

I'm am really out of here now; going home. Will catch you guys later.

Got to watch the St. Louis Cardinals Sweep tonight and the Dolphins tomorrow.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
104. guygee
9:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Make that "typo". The lack of editing and/or spell checking on this blog drives me crazy. Admins, upgrade to 21st Century, please?
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103. guygee
9:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Oops,correct type 1122+8=1130. Well short of 1500+, so we will see
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102. guygee
9:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Huuricane Gordon 1994 - Final estimate of 1122 dead in Haiti+ 8 dead in FL =1300 deaths. Plus it was an extremely unusual storm with a looping track, yet "Not Retired". Maybe because it was more of a rainmaker than a very strong hurricane.

Still, if those deaths had all been in the US, I think it would have been retired for sure. So it will be interesting to see if "Stan" is retired.
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101. Hecker
9:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
It is no longer in question that Stan's name will be retired (the first "S" storm ever retired, by the way). The total death toll exceeds Katrina's now. Pretty impressive for a Cat.1, eh?
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100. guygee
9:33 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Skyepony - Come to think of it,I have no idea what the dominant frequency if that quake was, as I realize what I experienced was one of the resonant frequencies of my home being excited by the quake. Anyways, if there is a link, I would love ot read it.
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99. tornadoty
9:30 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Hey guys, I think that Stan will be retired now that the death toll has reached over 1500 and rising. What do you guys think?
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98. seflagamma
4:24 PM EST on October 08, 2005
leaving work in 30 mins...this has been a "long week" Wed-Sat, 12+ hrs a day, but on the good side, next week is "short" don't have to be back here until Thur!

Going home to babysit my beautiful little 3 month old Granddaughter, Daughter & Son-in-law got a wedding to go tonight so little Rylee gets to spend the night with Gamma and Poppy. Grandkids! Worth raising their parents for :-)

Maybe will lurk once more before leaving work. Will probably sign on sometime tomorrow between games to see what you are all up to.

good luck to everyone with their Teams this weekend.
out of here.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
97. guygee
9:08 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Skyepony - That is amazing that hurricanes can cause detectable seismic activity. Do you have a link, I would love to read the article on that. Offhand I don't know what a typical earthquake's frequency spectrum looks like, but
0.9 to 3 millihertz doesn't sound that low to me (although
I can imagine it would be higher in a strong sharp jolting

The only detectable quake I can experienced was in NE
Ohio, a 5.5 with the epicenter about 30 miles from me
First I heard a definite very low rumbling in the
distance, then the living room flow started swaying like I
was on a ship. At first I thought it was a large truck
driving by, and by the time I yelled to my wife "Earthquake,
Run outside!" I was standing in the doorframe and it was over.

Near the center they showed a grocery store with broken
windows and stuff knocked off shelves, but where I lived
there was no damage whatsoever, I didn't even see any new
cracks in the road or anything.

Anyways, I think the domininat period of that quake was
closer to around 0.5 sec, based on the "swaying"
motion as if the ground underneath liquified for a short
period, so I would be interested in the link you found.
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96. seflagamma
4:22 PM EST on October 08, 2005
back at desk, just check sat and looks like STD22 and the ULL have joined hands and are now playing "ring around the rosy".... then caught up and saw lefty's post.

I guess we need to keep an eye on this over the weekend.

Those of you already off, have a great weekend.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
95. dcw
9:18 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Look at the model image in the blog post...what's that stuff in the northeast bahamas...not again!
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
94. Skyepony (Mod)
9:08 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Thanks ole~ i'll check back later.

Lefty~ in areas that frequently have quakes~ Pressures build between 2 plates ussually one gets forced under another causing the top one to bulge, until something gives, because earth wants to be round & fault lines are weak: plates shift to equilize the pressure.

Now pressures all getting built up on a fault line, hurricane comes, vibrates fault line =releasing quake
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93. leftyy420
9:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
the latest nam run from 2pmshows the dissipation of std 22 and the formation of a much stronger cyclone where all the globalmodels predict one to form. 18utc gfs should be out soon.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
92. leftyy420
9:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
feel confident in 24-36 hours we will see a second cyclone form south of std22 and std 22 will dissipate. the disscussion says all models lose std 22 after 36 hrs, yerah it dissipates and its energy is absorbed intop the second cyclone. small burst of convection is why they are maintaining the intensity at 30 kts but doubt there are actual winds that strong based on the orginisation of the system and the fact the storm has an exposed llc. i give it 24 hrs if that and expect it to continue to fall apart and would not be supprised if it dissipates sometime tomm or monday. next model runs of gfs and gfdl out soon should help as well as the model runs for 8pm out around 12:30 am.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
91. code1
3:58 PM CDT on October 08, 2005
Thanks all. Catch you later, party time!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
90. olefosse
8:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
I'll try and check up the time relations between hurricane hit and eruption, this is quite an interesting issue.
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89. seflagamma
3:51 PM EST on October 08, 2005
code 1, I grew up in that area, 60 miles north of Memphis in a little town Blytheville, AR. Memphis was the big city we went to when we got out of college. Moved down here from Memphis 26 yrs ago; still have family around there. Memphis is on the New Madrid Fault. That area gets little quakes all the time. No big ones in a long time. Most of the area around there is rural (except for Memphis) so no damage occurs. I don't think we had any SE USA tropical weather last Feb. Perhaps bad weather elsewhere. But that area gets them probably more often than California; it's just not on the news.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
88. leftyy420
8:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
am9, not supprosed. they will lower his intensity of he does not build back convection by 11pm. lets see what they say on the disscussion
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
87. leftyy420
8:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
they were coincedences. thats all. the study showed micro-tremors and eart vibrations. mainly due to the ocean crashing on the sea floor. to get a quake above a 3 u have slippage of a plate and in those places the quakes happen they have quakes every year.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
86. olefosse
8:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Just for your interest, looking up Stan's landfall area in Google Earth, with a "Stan's fly-in-view" at approx. 2 km altitude is well worth it, it shows the relation to San Martin quite clearly.
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85. AM91091
8:52 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
STD 22 still 35 mph. and 1009 mb
84. code1
3:44 PM CDT on October 08, 2005
One more before I go. Was in Memphis this past Feb. and felt the quake (3.4 if my mind remembers correctly) there on the 2nd floor of the hospital. Was there any bad weather out there then?
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
83. Skyepony (Mod)
8:40 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
ole~ very interesting, I hadn't even started diggin on the fact with stan, there was both quake & eruption. Seems it would take a large amout of water to cool & cap an active one into blowing, but it rained alot. Eruptions are linked to quakes. Anyone know which one cause the other? Was this a 1st that cane, quake & eruption were simultanious? Could the cane, cause the quake that caused the eruption? or was quake last?
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82. Skyepony (Mod)
8:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Quoting Leftyy we aren't talking massive quakes here. anything less than 2-3 on the richter scale and it would have to be a strong storm say like charl;ey or katrina to have that much effect

If this is true was the earthquakes (both over 5) that hit with Longwang & Stan (nether a Charley or Katrina) both coincidence?

My theory~ Charlie ran over a pretty stable fault line. Stan & Longwang more active areas, purhaps the fact those storms ran into very tall steep ridges of mountains as well. With the winds applying their force of energy to the steep land, ocean beating the floor, coupled with weaker fault lines = bigger hurricane quakes? Wonder what the wind speed at the top face of a 10000ft mountain being hit by 100mph winds at the bottom would bee. Lotta force there.

& Lefty I rarely prefer to disagree with you, but with the 2 quakes & canes coincidences Jeff's been bring up in his blog~ well I got to.
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81. olefosse
8:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Skyepony and Lefty:
Check out the area where Stan made landfall. The earth's crust there is not like in most places - it seems the eye must have passed more or less straight over the San Martin volcano at 95 deg. 12' 36'' W - 18 deg. 34' 10'' N.
The idea of the hurricane triggering the quake is fascinating but chilling. I know pounding of large waves on the seabed is a possible trigger, but in this case, if there is a link, maybe the direct effect of heavy rainfall on a volcano's core could be a likely suspect?
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80. seflagamma
3:28 PM EST on October 08, 2005

I am still laughing!!! I can relate to everything on that list!!! I have a "Hurricane Closet" with shelf for all of our supplies and "camping gear" just in case.
I have jugs and bottles of frozen water in the freezer...hey last year I didn't need it but my family in Palm Beach County were very happy my neighbors and I had all of our extra freezer space filled with ice...they took all of it within 3 days after each hit....

That was not at all offensive, it was funny reality...
Thanks for the laugh.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
79. StellarCyclone
8:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
From a recent email from a friend (I hope no one takes offence at any of these - I do find humor in most of these even though I've been through some major hits and evacuated 5 times this year and know people closeby who have gone through the worse):


You have FEMA's, the Red Cross's, and Catholic Charities's numbers on your speed dialer.

You have more than 300 C and D batteries in your kitchen drawer.

Your pantry contains more than 20 cans of Spaghetti Os.

You are thinking of repainting your house to match the plywood covering your windows.

When describing your house to a prospective buyer, you say it has three bedrooms, two baths and one safe hallway.

Your SS # isn't a secret, it's written in Sharpie on your arms.

You are on a first-name basis with the cashier at Home Depot and Lowes.

You are delighted to pay only $3 for a gallon of regular unleaded.

The road leading to your house has been declared a No-Wake Zone.

You decide that your patio furniture looks better on the bottom of the pool.

You own more than three large coolers.

You rationalize helping a friend board up by thinking "It'll only take a gallon of gas to get there and back"

You have 2-liter coke bottles and milk jugs filled with water in your freezer

Three months ago you couldn't hang a shower curtain; today you can assemble a portable generator by candlelight.

You catch a 13-pound redfish…in your driveway.

You can recite from memory whole portions of your homeowner's insurance policy.

You have had tuna fish more than 5 days in a row.

There is a roll of tar paper and roofing nails in your garage.

You can rattle off the names of three or more meteorologists who work at the Weather Channel.

Someone comes to your door to tell you they found your roof.

Ice is a valid topic of conversation.

Your "drive-thru" meal consists of MRE's and bottled water.

Relocating to South Dakota does not seem like such a crazy idea.

You've been laughed at over the phone by a roofer, fence builder and a tree worker.

A battery powered TV is considered a home entertainment center.

You don't worry about relatives wanting to visit during the summer.

Your child's first words are "hunker down".

Having a tree in your living room does not necessarily mean it's Christmas.

You know the difference between the "good side" of a storm and the "bad side."

Your kids start school in August and finish in July.
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78. code1
3:03 PM CDT on October 08, 2005
Thanks for the info Skye, was wondering. Lefty, thanks as always man! seflagamma, your kinda winter sounds good to me. Anyway, my 4 beer chickens on the grill are yelling they are done (my turn to bring meat). On my way to the beach to celebrate the Gators win! Nice day in Destin! Catch up later
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
77. leftyy420
7:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
be back in a lil bit. its time to cook some food lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
76. seflagamma
2:35 PM EST on October 08, 2005
Lefty, thanks for providing the update which confirmed what I thought I was seeing.
Sky, wow, that was interesting.Never made the quake/cane connection.
Jed, even though our SF winter by some people's reasoning is beautiful but they are too cold for me most of the time.
My idea of paradise is sunny, 85-90 days, 70-75 night, by the pool, or in the pool,frozen drink in hand with good music in the background. At late afternoon or evening, in the hot tub with the fire pit blazing....

For the past month, my back yard has been wet, yukky, hot, humid, all the furniture stacked up and get the "not so pretty" picture of the last month....
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
75. leftyy420
7:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
hydro tem[ature changes would have to be so severe, say 200-300 degress to affect the crust that much. its the weight of the water crashing against the ocean floor like when u beat a drum so those vibrations cuase plates to have more pressure on them and possibly give slightly. we aren't talking massive quakes here. anything less than 2-3 on the richter scale and it would have to be a strong storm say like charl;ey or katrina to have that much effect.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
74. leftyy420
7:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
the latest gfdl just gradually weakens std 22 till it dissipates tommorow night. i will be suprise if the maintain her intensity at 30kts at the 5pm advisory. but u never know. i dobt there are 30kt winds any where in the system. most deep convetion as waned and cloud tops have cooled and the center is exposed
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
73. Hydrocvl
7:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
what about hurricanes causing temperature changes that could trigger earthquakes?
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72. leftyy420
7:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
well yeah sky. when u have 40-100ft waves crashing down on the ocean floor its like beating a drum.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
71. Jedkins
7:34 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
It is the immense pull from the vortex that sucks up water vapor and heat energy,that is how upwelling occurs,depper cooler waters are risen to the surface fromn the suction that is pulling upward into the storm.
70. Skyepony (Mod)
7:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
found something interesting on hurricanes causein earthquakes

HURRICANES can trigger swarms of weak earthquakes and even set the Earth vibrating, according to the first study of such effects.

When Hurricane Charley slammed into Florida in August 2004, physicist Randall Peters of Mercer University in Macon, Georgia, had a seismometer ready to monitor any vibrations in the Earth's crust. He did so for over 36 hours as Charley travelled briefly over Florida, then slid back out into the Atlantic.

As the hurricane reached land, the seismometer recorded a series of "micro-tremors" from the Earth's crust. This happened again as the storm moved back out to sea. Then, as Charley grazed the continental shelf on its way out, it caused a sharp seismic spike. "I suspect the storm triggered a subterranean landslide," says Peters.

More surprisingly, the storm also caused the Earth to vibrate. The planet's surface in the vicinity of the hurricane started moving up and down at several frequencies ranging from 0.9 to 3 millihertz. Such low-frequency vibrations have been detected following large earthquakes, but this is the first time a storm has been found to be the cause
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69. leftyy420
7:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
from the tropical disscussion


std22 will not make it thru 48 hrs. thats per all global models
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
68. Jedkins
7:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Too bad florida is not warm with alot of rainfall ALL year long,sometimes I do get sick of the heat but when it does cool down that cuts off the tropical connection and then it begins to dry out.
67. cgableshurrycanegal
3:32 PM EDT on October 08, 2005
bahamas, next time in NMB, we should get together and toast surviving yet another hurricane season! Now I am REALLY OUT
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
66. mybahamas
3:27 PM EDT on October 08, 2005
hiya cgable ... used to spend my summers in Miami and now at least a fortnight each year in North Miami Beach.
Sometimes I do have assignments in SFL; but I'm too far the totem pole to get the good trips that often ;-)
BTW, do any other models call for two lows to form or be in The Bahamas in th next few days ?
65. cgableshurrycanegal
3:30 PM EDT on October 08, 2005
gamma. 18 years. we chat later!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
64. Jedkins
7:30 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
I do not like cool temps and dry weather,I like atcive stormy weather accept when I am have anything outdoor related which I do alot of.
63. cgableshurrycanegal
3:28 PM EDT on October 08, 2005
as always, enjoy the chatting, have to head to dog club meeting in plantation, will be late ::GG:: or on island time as I say... as I am to be there at 4 and I need at least 45 mins to get there...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
62. Jedkins
7:27 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
fronts of course almost never come through by late april and do not come through again untill mid october on average,this year looks like it may take till november which is get because fronts as I said earlier don't provide much rainfall unless they have a tropical connection with them,and only come through every 4 to 6 days.
61. seflagamma
2:26 PM EST on October 08, 2005
how long have you lived in Coral Gables? Sounds like we have a lot in common. We do not like cold weather or having to wear layers of clothing...LOL

I really need to stop this and go key payroll.
be back soon.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 313 Comments: 41174
60. cgableshurrycanegal
3:27 PM EDT on October 08, 2005
no no no!!! jed!!! jan - early apr here is fantabulous!!!
you can beat those blue clear skies and cool temps!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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