About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:32 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Life-giving rains have returned over the past two months to Earth's greatest rainforest--the mighty Amazon--after it experienced its second 100-year drought in five years this year. The record drought began in April, during the usual start to the region's dry season, when rainfall less than 75% of average fell over much of the southern Amazon (Figure 2.) The drought continued through September, and by October, when the rainy season finally arrived, the largest northern tributary of the Amazon River--the Rio Negro--had dropped to thirteen feet (four meters) below its usual dry season level. This was its lowest level since record keeping began in 1902. The low water mark is all the more remarkable since the Rio Negro caused devastating flooding in 2009, when it hit an all-time record high, 53 ft (16 m) higher than the 2010 record low. The 2010 drought is similar in intensity and scope to the region's previous 100-year drought, which hit the Amazon in 2005, according to Brazil's National Institute of Space Research. Severe fires burned throughout the Amazon in both 2005 and 2010, leading to declarations of states of emergencies.
Figure 1. Hundreds of fires (red squares) generate thick smoke over a 1000 mile-wide region of the southern Amazon rain forest in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 16, 2010. The Bolivian government declared a state of emergency in mid-August due to the out-of-control fires burning over much of the country. Image credit: NASA.
Causes of the great 2010 Amazon drought
During the 20th Century, drought was a frequent visitor to the Amazon, with significant droughts occurring an average of once every twelve years. These droughts typically occurred during El Niño years, when the unusually warm waters present along the Pacific coast of South America altered rainfall patterns. But 2010 was a La Niña year. The 100-year drought of 2005 occurred in an El Niño-neutral year. Subsequent analysis of the 2005 drought revealed that it was unlike previous El Niño-driven droughts, and instead was caused by record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (Phillips et al., 2009.) These warm ocean waters affected the southern 2/3 of the Amazon though reduced precipitation and higher than average temperatures. Very similar record Atlantic sea surface temperatures were observed in 2010, and likely were the dominant cause for the 2010 drought.
Figure 2. The great Amazon drought of 2010 began in April, when portions of the southern Amazon recorded precipitation amounts less than 75% of normal (brown colors). The drought spread northward and peaked during July and August, but drew to a close by November when the rainy season began. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The importance of the Amazon to Earth's climate
We often hear about how important Arctic sea ice is for keeping Earth's climate cool, but the Amazon may be even more important. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest takes about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, in 2005, the drought reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 16 - 22% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. According to Phillips et al., 2009, "The exceptional growth in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2005, the third greatest in the global record, may have been partially caused by the Amazon drought effects documented here." The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. In late 2009, before the 2010 drought, the World Wildlife Federation released a report, Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector, which suggested that odds of extreme 2005-like droughts in the Amazon had increased from once every 40 - 100 years, to once every 20 years. The study projected that the extreme droughts would occur once every two years by 2025 - 2050. This year's drought gives me concern that this prediction may be correct. The occurrence of two extreme droughts in the past five years, when no El Niño conditions were present and record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures occurred, are suggestive of a link between global warming and extreme Amazon drought. If the climate continues to warm as expected, the future health of Earth's greatest rainforest may be greatly threatened, and the Amazon may begin acting to increase the rate of global warming. According to Rosie Fisher, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado who specializes in interactions between climate and forests, "I'm genuinely quite alarmed by this. In some ways it kind of reminds me of when they figured out than the Greenland ice sheet was melting much faster than the climate models predicted it would."
Deforestation in Brazilian Amazon falls to lowest rate on record
There is some good news from the Amazon--deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have fallen 14% in the past year, and are at their lowest rate on record, according to mongabay.com, an environmental science and conservation news site that focuses on tropical forests. In 2009, Brazil passed a law committing to a 36 - 39% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases. Reducing deforestation by 80% by 2020 was the primary method envisioned to achieve the reduction. Brazil is now four years ahead of that schedule, and no longer is the world's biggest deforester--Indonesia now cuts down more acreage of forest each year than Brazil does.
For more information
Nick Sundt at the WWF Climate Blog has a remarkably detailed post on this year's Amazon drought, and Dr. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has another excellent post.
Phillips, et al., 2009, Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest, Science 6 March 2009: Vol. 323 no. 5919 pp. 1344-1347 DOI: 10.1126/science.1164033.
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