Tammy, Stan Jr., Stan, and Stan III--and Vince?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

The 5:16 pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found winds of 51 knots at flight level, supporting Tammy's maximum winds staying at 50 mph. The pressure fell 1 mb to 1002 mb, so Tammy is not strengthening rapidly, nor is she expected to. Tammy is maintaining her strength in the presence of some unusually high wind shear, about 20 - 25 knots. Tammy is poorly organized, and radar animations out of Jacksonville, Florida, show no sign of an eyewall forming, just a mass of disorganized echoes to the northeast of the center. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet. It is likely that Tammy will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 50 - 55 mph range, and a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet.

The primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain continue to pound the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rainfall amounts as of 4 pm EDT have mainly been in the 1 to 3 inch range along the coast in Georgia and along the South Carolina and northern Florida coasts, with lesser amounts further inland. A few isolated areas have received up to five inches--for example, Brunswick Georgia, and just south of Jacksonville, Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 8 to 10 inches along and to the north of Tammy's path. Flooding problems will be most serious in coastal Georgia, which received 3 - 5 inches of rain this past week, before Tammy came along.

Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn northward by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will pull Tammy northwestward into Georgia, and perhaps even westward towards Alabama by Friday. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast by Friday, and the remains of Tammy are expected to track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery shows upper level outflow has developed to the north and east, along with some low-level spiral banding. There is a circulation center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a limited amount of deep convection to the northeast and east. Wind shear from westerly upper-level winds are pushing this convection away from the center. Observations from the Cancun radar indicate two major spiral bands have formed, one on the southeast side and one on the north side. The overall impression is of a weak sheared system that is not yet a tropical depression strength. Once the center moves further out into ocean, the system has a better chance for intensification. With wind shear of 10 knots over it, I believe this will be a tropical depression by tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning. This assumes that the developing disturbance doesn't become a tropical storm first and steal the name Vince, leaving Stan Jr. stuck with the name Wilma.

Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds Thursday and Friday. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.

Figure 1. BAMM model track for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 103, including 50 deaths in El Salvador, 34 in Guatemala, 11 in Nicaragua and eight in Mexico. The remnant circulation from Stan continues to pull moist tropical air from the Pacific Ocean into the disaster areas, where more flooding rains are expected to make the disaster even worse. Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).

Stan III?
The remants of Stan appear likely to spin up into a new tropical cyclone that may threaten Baja California later in the week. If both this system and the Stan Jr. system off of the Yucatan do become tropical storms, this would be the first time a dissipated hurricane spawned two new tropical cyclones, one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. How many firsts can this season have??

Vince? Wilma?
A tropical disturbance near 9N 40W, 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. The early track forecasts are performing poorly--they have the disturbance moving to the northwest, and it is not doing so. However, a more norhtwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, but this hurricane season has had little regard for what is usual. Thus, the disturbance may form into a tropical depression on Thursday. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.

Figure 3. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet! One positive sign today that the Hurricane Season of 2005 will eventually end--a blizzard warning is up for western Montana.

Jeff Masters

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242. CoconutCreekFLA
9:22 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Hi Wxhatt: welcome. there is a weather chatroom if you look at the top right of your screen. The trouble is that if a bunch of people are posting at once it just flies by and you can't read everything.
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241. CoconutCreekFLA
9:20 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Thanks Dr. Masters. I appreciate you mentioning the infamous sun-sentinel article. It certainly fired things up in here for awhile.
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240. Pensacola22
1:18 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Thanks Dr. Masters!
238. wxhatt
12:14 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hi All,

Since I've discovered the Blog section of W.U. it's been great getting all the currents and perspectives.

I will be pleased to give you the read on storm activities as they occur here on the Outer Banks, N.C. in the future.

This has been a very good experience. It's almost like live chat, and was thinking how nice that would be. Does anyone know if a weather chatroom exsists?
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 947
237. CoconutCreekFLA
9:15 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Hey!! I just looked at accuweather and it reminded me of a discussion on here not too long ago regarding where in Florida was the safest place to be. Wasn't Jacksonville recommended?
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236. JeffMasters (Admin)
12:55 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hi, thanks for all your comments about the appropriateness of injecting humor into by blog postings. I will take it all into consideration. I do feel that sometimes I let my considerable scientific enthusiasm for following and learning all I can about these greatest storms on Earth make it sound as if I am insensitive to the great suffering they cause. It is a difficult paradox do wrestle with. At the same time, some humor is probably needed to lighten up these dreary posts. It's a learning process that I'll improve on, since this is my first year doing this. I appreciate all the feedback, postitive and negative.

As for the NWS gag order reported on by
RAW STORY (which is a highly politically opinionated web site), I have written to some of my contacts in the NWS to confirm the facts, and seek comments on the importance of this. I'll write more about this when I find out more--and hurricane season quiets down.

As for my wife's experiences in Louisiana, here's what she wrote early on in her stay:

Hi All,

I thought I'd let you know whats up down here in the muggy hot south. I'm working for the Red Cross. My job is Staff Health. I'm driving all over the state checking on the staff at the shelters. I've been to the Cajundome in Lafayette, the Civic Center in and Burton Centers in Lake Charles, and yesterday I visited a bunch of chuch run shelters. The Red Cross volunteers are really working hard, they are not wasting your money. I've seen some problems in the workers,
mostly due to overuse injuries, minor traumas and not taking their meds.

I've heard some amazing stories from the people who were rescued. The stress level is still really horrible for a lot of people. There is no privacy. The clients were not complaining about the food, but I won't eat it. I've never been a fan of southern cooking I guess.

Feel free to donate to the Red Cross. Despite my frustration with the paperwork, they are getting a huge job done. The logistics of running this show is mind boggling. If you are inspired to volunteer, go for it. Your talents and skills won't be used to the max, but they are still needed. I've seen professional people unloading trucks, cooking, running the toy "stores" and doing "mundane" tasks. Honestly, there are so many things that need to be done, and the Red Cross needs intelligent good work ethic types doing them. Some of the volunteers, kind hearted as they are, should not be here for a variety of reasons. The Red Cross training is a pain, but you can tell who had it and who didn't.

I better get back to work now...who knows when I'll get to touch another keyboard.


As for the article claiming that Katrina was a Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi and Category 3 (minimal!) at landfall in Louisiana, all I can say is that if the one saying it is Dr. Mark Powell, it's probably true. He is the world's expert on hurricane landfall intensity. (And a great windsurfer--I bought my first windsurfer from him!)

As for the tropical disturbances at 8N 38W and just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands: let's leave that until tomorrow. The wave at 8N 38W looks very impressive for being so far south, but let's see if it holds together another 12 hours. There may be some interaction with the disturbance developing just east of the Islands later in the week, could be another really complicated forecast situation. See you in the morning.

Jeff Masters

235. Pensacola22
1:15 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hey coconut, didn't have to work today... I'm over at my mother's house on her comp.

Tropics are busy... I can't believe that Tammy formed today! What about Stan Jr???
234. Pensacola22
1:15 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Hey all!
233. CoconutCreekFLA
9:12 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Any thoughts, Turtle, on what general direction they may be headed?
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232. turtlehurricane
1:09 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
i see 3 potential systems now, all with good chances, the yucutan one, lleward one and, midatlantic one
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231. jhans624
1:07 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Ft Walton Beach FL
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229. CoconutCreekFLA
9:08 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Glad you clarified that StSimon. I was really curious about the difference b/w water and rain :)
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227. AM91091
1:07 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Bermuda is a hotbed for development this time year
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225. AM91091
1:06 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
mabye roman letters would replace greek letters?
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224. cgableshurrycanegal
9:06 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
time to go feed poochies, catch you later!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
223. hurricanewayne
12:28 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
jeez looks like the tropics are firing up good tonight...they havent looked like this all year. that wave approaching the leeward lslands looks impressive also looks like another week low forming in the Bahamas. The other wave off of Africa is flaring up as well. Some computer models bring that wave into the Carribean. the nest landfalling system will be Vince around Tampa Bay.
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222. P682
1:01 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Makes me wonder why supposedly SANE adults keep pythons or constrictors in their homes with small children or infants close by.
I would have loved to have seen the battle between the two and to see how long it took for Skippy the python to strangle Alex the alligator!
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221. CoconutCreekFLA
9:05 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Where are you from RX and Jhan?
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220. cgableshurrycanegal
9:02 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
ROFLMBO!!! I KNOW!!! I'm not as thin-skinned as all that. I wait and listen thru cyber space, I can get a pretty good read of folks after a few entries. I know who's who here!
We're really cool, no problemo.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
219. turtlehurricane
1:03 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
the yankees stink. go someone else!
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218. CoconutCreekFLA
9:04 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Earlier it was coming in from the west and now it's the south. Not normal at all.
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217. jhans624
1:04 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Thanks for the info cg
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216. turtlehurricane
1:02 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
rain is moving north from the keys
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215. rxse7en
12:51 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Bring on Vince. Although the steady rains today showed me a minor leak in my sunroom. Luckily it's the kid's playroom so I stuck a plastic wagon under the leak. DAMN YOU TAMMY! DAMN YOU!

Oh, and GO YANKS!
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214. CoconutCreekFLA
9:02 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Just in case you can't hear my goofy tone of voice.. I was joking around!
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213. CoconutCreekFLA
9:01 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Don't mess with Broward!!!
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212. cgableshurrycanegal
9:00 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
dang, cococreek, you got me there!!! RATS!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
211. CoconutCreekFLA
8:56 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
CGables: Yeah, well the Sun-Sentinel quotes Dr. Masters -- who does the Miami Herald quote??????? Huh????

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210. cgableshurrycanegal
8:57 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
624, a HS team had 3 members directly struck by lightning, 2 in critical condition, 2 stable, (I know, that makes 4) and there were 9 others treated at the scene. Bad all the way around...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
209. cgableshurrycanegal
8:52 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
nyah, nyah, my article is better than yours!!! LOL
This story really DOES belong in an episode of the new TV series Invasion... when were we discussing it? Last night?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
208. cgableshurrycanegal
8:49 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
"Watch out Sofla: some stuff is coming up from the south."
Sheesh thanks! cococreek LOL... yeah, that looks like Son of Stan heading our way which is why y'day they put the flood watch in effect for tonight... ::sigh:: today was a quiet one for me, tomorrow I have to be all over the county for meetings...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
207. jhans624
12:41 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
I have missed something about the lighting and the football team. What is up?
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206. CoconutCreekFLA
8:47 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
What an awful way to go!

Here's the article (you know I like my sun-sentinel :)) ....Link
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205. cgableshurrycanegal
8:45 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Cococreek, I remember something about that as well.
I heard something said that today this storm came up too fast or that the lightning came out of nowhere, which would jibe with your comments about it not lasting too long and *only* being yellow, which we were joking about... vs. red. Doesn't make sense. This had to be freakish b/c all sports coaches down here KNOW we're the lightning capital of USA. I wonder if a detection system would have given enough warning, my understanding is that they were already leaving the field...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
204. P682
12:41 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Has anyone seen the picture posted on the news websites today about the burmese python that ate the alligator in the Everglades then EXPLODED! It was spotted from the air by a biologist scouting the 'glades for damage from Katrina.
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203. CoconutCreekFLA
8:46 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Can anyone tell me where our weather is coming from: is it stan residue or Tammy? It's getting hard to keep track.
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202. CoconutCreekFLA
8:45 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Watch out Sofla: some stuff is coming up from the south.


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201. cgableshurrycanegal
8:41 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
well, skeetobite has the two most likely candidates for a name up with models. What's this disclaimer about UKMET? Anyone with more understanding about models explain?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
200. LarryJS
12:43 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
What happens if we reach Hurricane Alpha and it is a major storm whose name needs to be "retired"? How do we replace the name?
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199. CoconutCreekFLA
8:38 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
I wonder if they have a lightening detection system. A lot of the parks around here have them b/c we get so much lightening down here. I believe when the lightening hit at the Dolphins practice a month or so ago they had a lightening detection system but people didn't have a chance to get inside. Correct me if I'm wrong here... I really don't remember.
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198. Zaphod
12:33 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Sounds like Canemane could integrate your StW weather monitoring device to his CSE algorithms. Maybe he could include ANT (Ant Nervousness Trend) indications from another blog as well! LOL!
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197. cgableshurrycanegal
8:35 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Cococreek. I sure hope the kids will be OK. One of those boys took a lightning strike direct to the chest according to local10. I'm sending my own little prayers up for him and his buddies...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
196. ErRnSeFl
12:33 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
That's exactly it cgables! I'm on the fight team (hurricane duty in the ER), so I keep up to date with what's going on. Don't really want to do it again, but at least this year it won't be so much of a surprise. This is really a great blog.
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195. cgableshurrycanegal
8:32 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
GACK!!! Zap, you are talking to (me, at least) the VERY technologically challenged here ::VBG::
Yeah, that'd be major cool, but I'D prolly bring down the whole danged system, with MY luck!!! LOL!!!
I'll just lurk at that level... I KNOW MY limitations...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214
194. fflattiger
12:28 AM GMT on October 06, 2005
Just want to thank all who contribute here....and suggest that those who seem to have a need to disparage the efforts of Dr. Masters (and many others) might be happier if they went elsewhere.
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193. CoconutCreekFLA
8:20 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
Cgables: thanks for the info on the Monarch High football players. So terrible. Monarch high is about 1/2 mile from my house and is the school the neighborhood kids go to. We get a lot of lightning here in S. Florida but tonight was actually less than normal. And that storm I mentioned earlier didn't last more than 1/2 an hour or so. Just a lot of power in a small time period. Apparently, yellow can be pretty bad!

It hasn't rained since then other than a light drizzle.
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192. cgableshurrycanegal
8:29 PM EDT on October 05, 2005
ErRn, having done the Andrew *song* I can well imagine it was loud. That is one sound you don't ever forget or want to repeat. Too damned eerie for me, still, at the very thought makes my hackles rise, guess the old flight or fight response
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 214

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