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New threat: Stan's remains head for Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

Return of Stan
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and has emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery this morning has shown some improved organization of this feature, and with wind shear 10 knots over it, there is a chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming later today or tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning.

Winds at the NOAA buoy 42056 at 20N 85W in the Yucatan Channel just switched from easterly to westerly at 11 am EDT today, suggesting that a closed circulation has already formed. Winds at this buoy were 25 mph gusting to 34 mph, and wind estimates from the latest QuikSCAT satellite pass were as high as 45 mph in this region. Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions Thursday afternoon when this system comes ashore. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.

I'll update this blog by 4pm today. The remainder of this morning's blog appears below, unchanged.


Figure 1. BAMM model track for tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Tammy
Tropical Storm Tammy formed 20 miles offshore from Cape Canaveral this morning. With 19 named storms, the Hurricane Season of 2005 has now tied 1995 as the second busiest ever. Only 1933, with 21 storms, has had more.

Tammy formed in the presence of some unusually high wind shear from an upper-level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico--about 15 - 20 knots--which is decreasing enough this morning to allow some intensification. Radar animations out of Melbourne, Florida, show an intense area of thunderstorms, well offshore, that are increasing in echo intensity. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet, but it is likely that such winds are occurring in the most intense convection to the east of the center. Infrared satellite images confirm that this area is growing in size and intensity, and some very cold cloud tops are now appearing. As long as the center remains offshore, Tammy may continue to intensify. Intensification into a hurricane is not expected, and would be a major surprise, due to the high wind shear. It is more likely that the center will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 40 - 50 mph range. In any case, the primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain will move onshore the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next few days, creating flooding problems, particulary in Georgia, where the precipitation will be heaviest and the soil is moister.


Figure 1. Mild drought conditions cover South Carolina, which will slow flooding in that state. Flooding is more likely to be a problem in Georgia and perhaps North Carolina, where the soil is moister.

Tammy is being drawn northward by a trough and its associated cold front that are expected to arrive over the East Coast on Friday. The remains of Tammy will track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast, and it is likely that at least one more area of low pressure--probably not a tropical storm, but it could be--will develop along the front late in the week and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast additional heavy rain.



Stan's wake
Stan dissipated this morning over the Mexican mountains, and his circulation is pushing onward into the Pacific Ocean, where a new tropical storm may form. Little enough of Stan remains in the southern Gulf of Mexico to allow a new tropical storm to form there later in the week, although the NOGAPS model is still calling for that to happen.

Stan's onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into his center caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. In Mexico's southernmost state of Chiapas, a river overflowed its banks and tore through the city of Tapachula, destroying numerous houses. Guatemala is reporting four dead, Nicaragua nine dead, and 49 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher, since Stan's remains will still generate rain over the area for two more days.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico has diminished, and tropical storm formation is not expected here or anywhere else in the Atlantic through Thursday.

I'll have an update about 3pm today when the Hurricane Hunters arrive at the storm.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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334. oriondarkwood
5:38 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Some more off topic questions by request. (LOL)

1. If a woodchuck could chuck wood, what would the beaver be doing?

2. Who would you bet on in a fight between 2 cat5 hurricanes in NYC?

3. Where is the best place to get in a fight: MTV Deathmatch, Beavis and Butthead's living room, generic woods where Bugs Bunny lives or Hell in a Cell in the WWE?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
333. weatherguy03
5:37 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Ok I am in St.Augustine, thats it all done...Bye Bye Tammy..LOL..That was my 8 hour TS...LOL...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
332. Scotth
5:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Does anyone still have that pic of "drunks with guns"? It was a picture in Texas after Rita.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
331. oriondarkwood
5:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
DocNDswamp,

OIC have a good one
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330. DocNDswamp
5:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
oriondarkwood,
Group 1 - TS Tammy...
Group 2 - Yucatan system...

Gotta run...be back couple hours....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
329. Weathermandan
5:21 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
the initial forecast track is similar to that of Ophelia's and I think it'll follow a track similar to Ophelia is what I mean to say******
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
328. oriondarkwood
5:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
DocNDswamp ,

What two groups do you purpose?
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327. Weathermandan
5:19 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
to me, this forecast track looks very similar to Ophelia (except faster). the only difference is that the trough forecast to pick up Tammy is supposed to be more negatively tilted than the trough that picked up Ophelia, which would send Tammy more in the direction of southern New England rather than just brushing and going out to sea...correct?

(Tammy still moving due north, getting slightly better organized: Link )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
326. DocNDswamp
5:12 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Hawkeyewx, Right..YucaStan is currently in a better lower shear environment, and if continues NE movement - into higher shear which should lead to slower development, but we'll see....

Looks like we need to divide bloggers into 2 focus groups. LOL

Back in couple hours.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
325. oriondarkwood
5:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Lefty,

Thanks for the clarfication on that
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324. hurricanechaser
4:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
have a good day lefty..thanks.
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323. hurricanechaser
4:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
gotta go but leftys absolutely right about Ivan ..maintained its circulation crossing over fl and reentering gulf..
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322. Hawkeyewx
4:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
With regard to the Yucatan blob. The strong convection has persisted off the coast for several hours this morning. Now the visible loop clearly shows a good mid-level spin emerging from the Yucatan as I type. As I said in an earlier post, this all leads to the formation of another lopsided tropical system that moves across south Florida. Satellite also shows an upper level trough digging way down into the gulf with the trough already reaching the northwest tip of the Yucatan. There is a thin area of lower shear currently over the convection that is out over the nw Caribbean, but the approaching upper trough should keep enough shear over the system to keep it from becoming too strong.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
321. GainesvilleGator
4:54 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
What, no Dr. Masters' bashing in last hr? Some people on here just need to relax a little bit. Tammy is a minimal tropical storm with flooding potental along the SE US coast. Does anybody remember Ophelia? The NHC had this one going through Central FL, then Jacksonville, then SC, NC etc. Nobody can call these things exactly & weather conditions change continually. If someone sticks his/her neck out on here with a prediction, no need to rub his/her face in it if it comes out wrong.
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320. leftyy420
4:54 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
peace chaser
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319. weatherdude65
4:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Masters has an new blog
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318. leftyy420
4:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
a peice of ivan did not break opff. it was the actuall surface circulation and was tracked on visible satelite for over a weak befor it blew back up. the peice of stan was actually a combination of convergence from stan and the ull that persisted long enough to now be self sustaining. stans llc dissipated hours ago over the motuians and what remains has started to enter the pacific thats the difference. i use to have a loop somewhere of the llc of ivan traveling all the way around and back into the gulf. will try to find it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
317. hurricanechaser
4:52 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
i might be misinterpreting the discussions earlier but nothing has changed from my view of the obvious center and its fixed right where it should be...hopefully it will reorganize and move this way..lol
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316. hurricanechaser
4:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
I know lefty..its the same center I have been referring too on radar very close to daytona.
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315. hurricanechaser
4:50 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
ok guys its been great as always..im late picking up my little girl from preschool...have a great day if I miss you guys later..last prediction before I go,...Tammy will make landfall anywhere between fl. and cape hatteras or out to sea..just a hunch.. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
314. leftyy420
4:50 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
chaser thats cause the nhc fixed the cenetr using radar and earlier today it was fourther east but as we have seen in the past 2 hours it reorginsed alil more west. i suspect another or more reorginisations as its a weak system. thats why we use recon to get a betetr fix on these things. so now we have a good idea where she is based on all the data.
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313. Weathermandan
4:49 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Link
...! west??
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312. oriondarkwood
4:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Got a question for the group, isn't what Stan doing the same as Ivan that part got broke off and curved back around to hit Texas and it got to keep its name. What makes Stan different other than Stan might become a Pacfic storm?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
310. weatherguy03
4:47 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Hey when the center gets over my house I will let ya all know..LOL..
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309. hurricanechaser
4:47 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
the vortex data messages list coordinates that are different than the ones you will see lidted by the NHC in its advisories..note the last comment..little convection near center..they have fixed the center as the one we are still talking about lefty.. honestly, i havent investigated why the coordinates are different but they are..i have been viewing vortex messages for years now,,just like Wilmingtyons airport is listed at 77.5 degrees longitude but its actual statue coordinates are 77.9.
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308. Weathermandan
4:46 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Link
...
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307. Amorris
4:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
looks like one for my coast :/
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306. DocNDswamp
4:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
vortextrance, Yeah, we'll have to see if the convection also maintains itself thru this aftn. I feel we may already have TD22. We can only guess.

Wow, I see Dr. Masters is alert as well w/ his update...
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305. leftyy420
4:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
vortextrance

yes thats what i see and what it is. i was saying new in response to it not being the low of tammy. if u look at the link u see the l from tammy dissapear and l in the gulf appear. thats why i referred to it as new, and as of right now there is no surface low with the yucatan blob. that is also why i refered to it as new. i believe we will see a low develop in 24 hrs or so but there is not one right now
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303. hurricanechaser
4:42 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
right now it still has a tendency to move just west of due north which would mean a southern ga. landfall most likely..right now its a complex pattern strong high to its north and and the strength of the high will determine if it goes in fl./ga border with current center or wakening high would allow it to hug coast and move into sc
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302. leftyy420
4:42 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
cenetr fixed at 29.13n and 89.82w

thanks chaser but i don;t need a defense lol. i said 20 times we need to wait for recon to fix it. nd thats why i stopped talking about it till recon got there
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301. vortextrance
4:39 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Hey left I do not believe the low that the GFS has forming over the Gulf is new. I think its the spin that is currently over the Yucitan to the west of the convection in the Caribbean that nobody (mainly the NHC) thinks is there.
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300. leftyy420
4:39 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
vortex is out

URNT12 KNHC 051635
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/16:18:50Z
B. 29 deg 08 min N
080 deg 49 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 007 deg 056 nm
F. 074 deg 039 kt
G. 355 deg 108 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C/ 302 m
J. 23 C/ 335 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0121A TAMMY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 39 KT N QUAD 15:42:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 002 / 15NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR CENTER.
FLAT TEMP GRADIENT.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
299. hurricanechaser
4:36 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
yep lefty..what I have been thinking all along..fl./ga. border north with current circulation center..in leftys defense guys...if that center dissipates and a new one develops underneath the deep convection and becomes dominate..then we are looking at a stronger storm much farther north..don't be surprised if recon mentions there might be two centers down the road..but more likely that the one we all see on radar is going to remain dominate..id say 80/20 based on current conditions.
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298. Weathermandan
4:36 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
ok I see the center now and thanks leftyy I see that now too lol. but I still have this question: if Tammy is moving north...what exactly is supposed to kick it NW? extrapoliation would take it into southwestern SC
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
296. Hawkeyewx
4:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
The surface center(swirl on radar) is now clearly visible on the visible satellite loop now that the convection has withered and been sheared off to the north and east.

Link
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295. 8888888889gg
4:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
SO WHEN CAN WE SEE THE v STORM?
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294. hurricanechaser
4:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
right now the center that the NHC is currently plotting is the closed swirl with very little convection around it which will pass by daytona moving to the north but not too far offshore but offshore nonetheless
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293. leftyy420
4:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
ga looks good, south ga probly just north of the border
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292. leftyy420
4:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
madden i dunno what gfs ur looking at but hers the leatest gfs thats comming out as we speak

Link
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290. leftyy420
4:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
gfs moves her inland near f;/ga border while a new system develops in themiddle of the gulf. that system hits the panhandle and both systems are abosrbed into the front and a barclonic or extratropical low forms and moves north along the front into new england. here is the link to the gfs

Link
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289. Weathermandan
4:28 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
the GFS has Tammy move across FL and go into the Gulf
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288. caneman
4:28 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
My CSE collation is nearly complete. Results will be posted shortly.
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287. vortextrance
4:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Yeah Doc you can really see the spin over the Yuc. Pen. with the enhanced RGB Image. Hopefully the convection will not be able to wrap around this so the only thing FL has to worry about is a lot more rain. But that is the best case scenario I am afraid. Here's the RGB link. Zoom to the west of convection.
Link
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286. thelmores
4:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Link

looks like showers are starting to wrap around that swirl between cape and daytona..... i still believe this to be the center of circulation.....

sorry lefty! LOL
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285. leftyy420
4:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
madden what are u talking about? what jump west across florida?
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284. leftyy420
4:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
recon is in the storm now. vortex soon
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