Western Caribbean disturbance 98L a threat to develop; Otto weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (98L) is in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua. The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development. Pressures at Colombia's San Andres Island near the center of 98L are not falling, and satellite imagery show disturbed weather only over a very modest portion of the Caribbean, so any development today will be slow to occur.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday, and possibly the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status early next week, though NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. This is probably too aggressive of a forecast, given 98L's current small size and lack of organization. The UKMET model also develops 98L, but keeps the storm in the Western Caribbean over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model keeps 98L weak and predicts a more west-northwesterly motion into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF models do not develop 98L. One argument against the development of 98L would be that the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently promoting sinking, stable air over the Western Caribbean, which tends to make the atmosphere dryer and more stable. However, I think that 98L will spend enough time in the Western Caribbean to overcome the relatively stable, dry air, and become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. The likelihood of the storm hitting Cuba versus moving more to the west-northwest and hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is difficult to call at this point.

Otto weakening, pulling away from the the islands
The deluge has finally ended for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto. This is welcome news in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Otto and its precursor storminess dumped 15.25" of rain over the past eight days. On average, St.Thomas expects to receive just 1.44" of rain during the first eight days of October. Satellite imagery shows that Otto is beginning to suffer the ill-effects of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The cloud pattern has become distorted and non-symmetric, with the clouds on the southwest side of the storm being eaten away by the strong upper-level winds from the southwest creating the shear. Otto will continue to deteriorate due to increasing wind shear until the storm transitions into an extratropical storm on Monday.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Otto taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on their Terra satellite at 11:05 am EDT October 8, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm EDT.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 498 - 448

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

498. scott39
11:40 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
The THCP is definetly there for 98L to tap into.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
497. Ameister12
11:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting Bobbyweather:
60% 98L

Not really surprised.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
496. GeoffreyWPB
11:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
495. SouthDadeFish
11:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
To be honest, this seems to meet the criteria for a depression already...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
494. stormwatcherCI
11:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:


Pouring in Kingston. Ground is so saturated that it floods as soon as it rains but it runs off quickly. We're under flash flood warning again. I posted it earlier. Not pretty.
My daughter told me the part of Mandeville they go to at her in-laws doesn't flood but they are stuck inside the house.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
493. SweetHomeBamaGOM
11:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
steering winds from the high pressure to the east of 98L at the 700-850 level appears to be ridging further west in the past 3 hours. that may contribute to the northwestern track the storm appears to be taking right now


700-850 3 hrs ago

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8dlm1-1.html

700-850 latest update

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

it also appears the two weak high pressure systems (texas--low level; mexico--mid level) are merging and then the high is sliding inland into northern mexico/new mexico/texas national border. it appears to have considerably affected the westerlies in the northern GOM. however, upper level westerlies do not currently appear to be as affected as much as the westerlies in the lower levels.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
492. wunderkidcayman
11:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
hey guys wow I left and then came back finding 98L on 60% wow so are we looking at TD 18 by tomrrow
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
491. stormwatcherCI
11:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
That album was released in 1975. I thought it was earlier then that. I believe Elton John had a few big hits around that time..
I just googled it. Elton John is great. When did he do Rocketman ? Earlier than 1975 i know but don't remember when.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
490. scott39
11:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
60% thats a big jump! Didnt expect that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
489. kimoskee
11:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
My grand-daughter just told me it is pouring in Jamaica and not holding up at all. She is in Mandeville right now.


Pouring in Kingston. Ground is so saturated that it floods as soon as it rains but it runs off quickly. We're under flash flood warning again. I posted it earlier. Not pretty.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
488. scott39
11:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
That convection burst around 98Ls center has some very cold cloud tops and is growing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
487. stormwatcherCI
11:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
486. Bobbyweather
11:33 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
60% 98L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
485. hydrus
11:32 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thought you and hydrus would like that.
That album was released in 1975. I thought it was earlier then that. I believe Elton John had a few big hits around that time..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
484. SouthDadeFish
11:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Very impressive burst going on near the center of 98L.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
483. scott39
11:28 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
FL. better beat LSU!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
482. scott39
11:26 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Well if your feeling is correct, I believe Southern Florida will definitely get some rain and wind from it...Just a feeling..;)
Yea, I think the keys would get the worst of it first.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
481. stormwatcherCI
11:26 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting scott39:
LOL
Thought you and hydrus would like that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
480. scott39
11:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link
LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
479. stormwatcherCI
11:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Well if your feeling is correct, I believe Southern Florida will definitely get some rain and wind from it...Just a feeling..;)
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
478. stormwatcherCI
11:21 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hurricanecrab:
Stormwatcher, Petrol, Kmanislander & all, I knew you'd all be watching.

Weird little aside - juxaposed to weather watching, Monty Python at Hollywood bowl is on the TV in the background.

Wish I had a kazoo, for some odd reason.
My grand-daughter just told me it is pouring in Jamaica and not holding up at all. She is in Mandeville right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
477. hydrus
11:21 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting scott39:
I probably should say no they dont, but you know how you get a feeling sometimes? Will see.
Well if your feeling is correct, I believe Southern Florida will definitely get some rain and wind from it...Just a feeling..;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
476. scott39
11:18 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
I see. So you feel the models have a handle on this one, even though it is in such an early stage of development
I probably should say no they dont, but you know how you get a feeling sometimes? Will see.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
475. stormwatcherCI
11:17 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hurricanecrab:
Stormwatcher, Petrol, Kmanislander & all, I knew you'd all be watching.

Weird little aside - juxaposed to weather watching, Monty Python at Hollywood bowl is on the TV in the background.

Wish I had a kazoo, for some odd reason.
LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
474. xcool
11:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
473. hurricanecrab
11:15 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Stormwatcher, Petrol, Kmanislander & all, I knew you'd all be watching.

Weird little aside - juxaposed to weather watching, Monty Python at Hollywood bowl is on the TV in the background.

Wish I had a kazoo, for some odd reason.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
472. hydrus
11:15 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Im looking at the models and they put it in the GOM.
I see. So you feel the models have a handle on this one, even though it is in such an early stage of development
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
471. scott39
11:15 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
If 98L stays in the GOM, it will be ripped to shreads!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
470. IKE
11:15 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting xcool:
IKE yeah and not say noo named


I know who it was. One of them doesn't post here anymore. The other one does, but hasn't been around much lately.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
469. xcool
11:12 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
scott39 .:0
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
468. hurricanecrab
11:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
This will sound like dramtic foilheddery, however we have an unusual yellow-light effect going on right now [yes, it's called sunset]

No, more than that. It's a weird-light phenomena I've only seen before or after a TC. Probably water saturated atmosphere, combined with a wind to defract the light spectrum, or some such fluffery.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
467. xcool
11:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
IKE yeah and not say noo named
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
466. scott39
11:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Scott, I am asking a question. I know what direction the system is moving. I know where the Gulf is..What will draw this system so far north that it actually enters the Gulf of Mexico?
Im looking at the models and they put it in the GOM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
464. stormwatcherCI
11:10 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting hurricanecrab:
Here in Cayman Brac, we still have a fairly strong -- 15 mph or so -- NE wind.

Convection from the invest moving against it from the SSW.

[flow'ry expletive] my WUlinks aren't working.

You can see the "counterflow" in the GOES IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html
Hi. Winds at East End have been around 22-25 mph with gusts of 32 mph. Out of the NE.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
463. scott39
11:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting xcool:
scott39 that lotts of moneyyy
LOL I got plenty!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
462. hydrus
11:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting scott39:
movement towards the NW!
Scott, I am asking a question. I know what direction the system is moving. I know where the Gulf is..What will draw this system so far north that it actually enters the Gulf of Mexico?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
461. IKE
11:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting xcool:
MJO forecast was lies jmo


You mean the statement by a couple of "experts" on here earlier in the season that said...the heat is focused in the ATL and if the MJO leaves it will come back?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
460. stormwatcherCI
11:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2010



She's getting her feet wet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
459. scott39
11:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Right now with the set up it could only make it into the extreme southern GOM before it turns ENE along the Cuba coast.
Yep in the GOM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
458. xcool
11:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
scott39 that lotts of moneyyy
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
457. belizeit
11:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Hi just dropped in for a quick look and i see people saying 98 could be a slow developer but i think it could explode due to the presure difrence . 98 L is almost surounded whith very high presure wish will cause it to deepen fairly fast wish we have been seeing since this morning when the center was mostly exposed
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
456. hurricanecrab
11:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Here in Cayman Brac, we still have a fairly strong -- 15 mph or so -- NE wind.

Convection from the invest moving against it from the SSW.

[flow'ry expletive] my WUlinks aren't working.

You can see the "counterflow" in the GOES IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
455. scott39
11:07 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
I will put $100 on it going in the GOM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
453. scott39
11:06 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Except that it is expected to take a turn to the NNE or NE.
It will still go in the Southern GOM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
452. stormwatcherCI
11:05 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
Quoting scott39:
movement towards the NW!
Except that it is expected to take a turn to the NNE or NE.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
451. xcool
11:04 PM GMT on October 09, 2010
hydrus .no no
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
What will put it there. Please explain.....
movement towards the NW!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98L IMO poses a dangerous threat to the Caymans and Cuba, maybe the central bahamas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
98L will go in the GOM.
What will put it there. Please explain.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 498 - 448

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice