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Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1572. geepy86
Pennies From Heaven - Billie Holiday
sorry tried to link it
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1571. pottery
Quoting pottery:
Hey, I just realised that it is October...

Yeah?
So What?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1570. NRAamy
Happy October....

:)

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1569. JLPR2
Firing up near 15N, 50W
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Quoting pottery:

One of The Best!


Good evening Pottery, Hope the weather's not treating you poorly. Looks like the area we spoke about, is trying hard.
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1567. pottery
Hey, I just realised that it is October...
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1566. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
The original, I believe. Hope it meets with your approval.



Where did you ever find that? She was one beautiful woman.
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1565. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
How about "Pennies from Heaven"?


Hundred dollar bills would be better....
Inflation and all that, you know.
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1564. pottery
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
The original, I believe. Hope it meets with your approval.


One of The Best!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1563. NRAamy
How about "Pennies from Heaven"?

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I've posted that before. Although I like the Billie Holiday cover better.


Billie Holiday was great. What a voice!
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NRAAMy I prefer to double down myself it's discounting at it's best.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Tampa...you're right, it is because of money...floaters are expensive...trust me...


LMAO.....you have had too many purple drinks tonite.....LOL
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah!
The Voodoo works.
Did you notice how the Satellites went down when that heavy stuff was overhead here today, and when they came back up, the Waters were Parted and Diverted to Guyana and Grenada?
(sorry for them, but I look out for No.1)


hmmmmmmmmm......
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Did they take Invest 97L off......it is missing on some sites.....WOW
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1555. NRAamy
Tampa...you're right, it is because of money...floaters are expensive...trust me...
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Quoting Grothar:


How about "Stormy Weather" by the great Lena Horne. It is also on topic. We can't get banned for that one.


Ah, wisdom never goes out of style. I will busy myself.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Link
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1549. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery did it... Voodoo
And its the Carols... or East Alabama... one of those two.

Yeah!
The Voodoo works.
Did you notice how the Satellites went down when that heavy stuff was overhead here today, and when they came back up, the Waters were Parted and Diverted to Guyana and Grenada?
(sorry for them, but I look out for No.1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1548. NRAamy
It was the meds, Groth.... I fail to believe that an old salty dog like you can blush....

;)
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1547. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I appreciate that. If you have a song you'd like to hear, I'll be happy to search for an appropriate performance.


How about "Stormy Weather" by the great Lena Horne. It is also on topic. We can't get banned for that one.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery did it... Voodoo
And its the Carols... or East Alabama... one of those two.


naa, Pottery da Calypso mon would not do that to us fellow Islanders.
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Good early morning! I wonder why such a delay on getting Floaters up this year. Has to be because of Money!
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1544. geepy86
Quoting NRAamy:
JasonIsLameMan, that link was lame....

so true
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1543. NRAamy
JasonIsLameMan, that link was lame....
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1542. Grothar
Good thing the kids aren't on the blog tonight. I've even blushed a few times. It was either that or the medications.
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1541. geepy86
for real?
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1540. geepy86
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
Link
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1539. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery remembers them from their Teen hits.

True...
(close, but not quite....)
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That was a good one StSimon Pottery taught those girls that song. Private lesson for sure.
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1535. geepy86
nuts or not we need the hippo.
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Quoting Grothar:


And you as well!!


I appreciate that. If you have a song you'd like to hear, I'll be happy to search for an appropriate performance.
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1532. pottery
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A song just for pottery.

...and a Classic, too!
Written by a Calypsonian here in the '40's, and sold to the Andrews.
Went on to become a Major Hit for them.
Deals with the social implications of having 150,000 US Soldiers here during the War.
There were other Calypso's with the same theme.
"Jean and Dinah" by Sparrow was also a Classic. UTube it..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
ahem...

excuse me but who reversed this storm flow we had set up...
to the " Carolinas"

how come I be gettin the thunder storms mashing me from da North now?


Pottery did it... Voodoo
And its the Carols... or East Alabama... one of those two.
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...it jus must be big fish Orca, I believe.
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ahem...

excuse me but who reversed this storm flow we had set up...
to the " Carolinas"

how come I be gettin the thunder storms mashing me from da North now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1524. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.

Bless you, my Son.
You will be reported (I mean rewarded) in the Hereafter....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.
Oh my...
Zing!
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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