Florida to get socked; Stan looking strong

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2005

Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
An tropical disturbance approaching the central Bahama Islands is poised to sock Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday with heavy rains and high winds. While the shear is a high 10 - 20 knots over the system today, the shear is expected to decrease to 5 - 10 knots tomorrow, accompanied by the formation of an upper-level anticyclone on top. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the time it reaches Florida, and a reconnaissance flight is scheduled for Tuesday at 11 am. The disturbance currently has no surface circulation center; the spinning clouds seen on satellite images at 25N 70W are from an upper-level low that the disturbance is now separating from. Beaches along central Florida are already suffering erosion from the large pounding waves emanating from this disturbance.

The forecast track of this disturbance is complicated by the expected interaction with a cold front forecast to move over the East Coast by the end of the week, and an upper-level low pressure system expected to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The GFS model shows the disturbance splitting into two storms, one that tracks across Southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and the other which moves northward along the coast, brushing the Carolinas and New England. Neither storm has a very good chance to develop into a hurricane. Anything moving into the Gulf will encounter the upper-level low and its shearing winds. An East Coast storm would have low shear and a favorable upper-level winds for development, but not much time over warm water. Regardless, Florida is in for a very wet week with potential serious flooding problems, both from the rains of the tropical disturbance, and from the upper-level low, which is likely to entrain copious tropical moisture over the state.


Figure 1. BAMM model forecast track of Bahamas suspect area. The intensity forecast numbers from the SHIPS model are far too high; this system will be lucky to make it to tropical storm strength (40 mph winds). The GFS and NOGAPS models are tracking the upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas instead of the surface tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Stan
There have been three center penetrations of Stan this afternoon by the Hurricane Hunters, most recently at 4:50 pm EDT. The central pressure fell 6 mb in the three hours between passes, and the highest winds measured were in the 55 - 60 mph range. Satellite imagery continues to show an improving outflow pattern, larger area of deep convection near the center, and more low-level spiral banding. The chances for continued intensification are high, as Stan is over 30C waters and is positioned under a large anticyclone that will provide good outflow and wind shear values below 5 knots. Stan will probably be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.

The 12Z ( 8am EDT) model runs continue to forecast a landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday. After briefly stalling this afternoon while re-organizing, Stan is moving westward again at about 6 mph under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge is forecast to weaken as a weak trough of low pressure swings across the U.S. and drops a cold front and upper-level low pressure system across the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. In response to this weakening, Stan is expected to slow down as he approaches the coast Tuesday, but it is looking less and less likely that Stan will stall in the Gulf and wander erratically.

Mid-Atlantic disturbance
A low pressure system accompanied by a concentrated area of thunderstorms is halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, at about 14N 36W. This system is fighting significant wind shear, and will probably not develop into a tropical depression. It is expected to move northward the next five days over open waters and not threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Stan at PaaMul (cleo85)
PaaMul, Yucatan Peninsula, 30 miles north of Tulum
Stan at PaaMul

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71. cgableshurrycanegal
5:54 PM EDT on October 03, 2005
gbzgirl, you could be onto something, except LOL wrong culture!!! I can't figure if it's metal or wood, even...
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70. southbeachdude
9:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
any updated thoughts on this new blob? I wonder when a tropical storm watch will be issued for the upper keys and Miami Dade county? I think we are close enough for a 36 hour warning but I am not a professional.....
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69. 8888888889gg
9:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal thank you for saying that
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68. 8888888889gg
9:52 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
i weant to school at bear creek high school in stockton ca then i move up her lol
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67. gbreezegirl
9:52 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Almost looks like a Tiki.
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66. cgableshurrycanegal
5:52 PM EDT on October 03, 2005
leave 888 alone, not all of us are the best typists in the world. I'm constantly correcting myself... sheesh
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65. PCBguy
9:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
888... "yes i went to school but i will not say on her where"

Why not? Why won't you "say on her where"?

LOL
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64. cgableshurrycanegal
5:49 PM EDT on October 03, 2005
OK. Anyone able to I.D. what is in the water in the photo just above this blog? I know it's a Stan weather pic, but what the hay is rolling around in the H2O? Looks man-made to me.
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63. aquak9
5:47 PM EDT on October 03, 2005
sunshinestate you have mail
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62. 8888888889gg
9:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
i would deal with hurricane in ca then earthquake in ca any day
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61. stormydee
9:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
my dinner is done...smells good. May be back later or tomorrow...see ya!
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60. mendomama
2:45 PM PDT on October 03, 2005
last earthquake i felt was a few years ago. it felt like a truck hit the house.
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59. stormydee
9:44 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
ya, I agree alabama...that is why I live in FL but visit CA... :-)
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58. alabamawatcher
4:41 PM CDT on October 03, 2005
I was in a little earthquake once, I'd rather deal with hurricanes, at least you have some warning.
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57. 8888888889gg
9:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
yes i went to school but i will not say on her where
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56. stormydee
9:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
88-not sure about hurricanes in CA...maybe remnants...but Id have to dig and don't feel like digging right now. :-)
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55. sunshinestate
9:40 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
888, your grammar needs much needed improvement along with spelling. Where did you go to school......or did you?
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54. BlueWatch
9:40 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
mendo - Richmond, CA
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53. stormydee
9:39 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Never felt an earthquake...that was my goal in June (just a little one, though)...but there is always next year.
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52. mendomama
2:39 PM PDT on October 03, 2005
blue watch where in nor cal?
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51. sunshinestate
9:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
stormy - Gritty it would be.

blue - Padre Island is nice as well, Mustang Is. and that area but not around Galveston or atleast not IMO. Did many spring breaks in Padre. Lot's of fun!
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50. 8888888889gg
9:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
had ca evere had hurricane like winds like winds up to 75 or 100mph be for in the winter time?
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49. BlueWatch
9:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I miss earthquakes :-(

I moved here from NorCal about 7 months ago. Apart from being hotter than the hinges of hell, I like the weather down here. But nothing compares to waking up in a pile of your stuff with the ground moving out from underneath you.
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48. stormydee
9:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Ive heard the best beaches are in Hawaii, but i have never been....but the CA beaches are pretty nice too, if you don't go to the wrong one (i.e. Venice...do NOT go there, you've been forewarned)
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47. stormydee
9:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
88, born in Fullerton by Anaheim...but wasn't there but a whole 6 months...Ive had this fascination with earthquakes for about 6 years now...just went to San Francisco and drove to Los Angeles via the San Andreas fault line...just like the coasts change from hurricanes, CA changes from earthquakes.
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46. sunshinestate
9:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Texas beaches are nothing like Florida, so don't keep your hopes up. I grew up there. I remember going to Galveston and once I got home I had to use tar removal to get that stuff off the bottom of the feet. Some are pretty but really nothing like the eastern coast of US. :)
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45. aquak9
5:35 PM EDT on October 03, 2005
squirrel you have mail
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44. BlueWatch
9:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I have to get some pictures posted. I have some nice ones of Padre Island beaches and the beach behind my house. I'm just lazy.
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43. stormydee
9:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
wow, never saw mud rain before. Must be dirty and gritty, not something u want to catch in your mouth....LOL
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42. 8888888889gg
9:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
stormydee oh why do you like ca? i do not no why ca do not get hurricane too but i think the water is too cold for hurricane her in ca
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41. stormydee
9:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
ah, got it BlueWatch...never been to TX beaches...think it might be time to check them out...got to see Pensacola beach for the first time this weekend, wish I would have saw it before Ivan made such a mess and Dennis came along and messed it up some more...
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40. sunshinestate
9:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I went to college in Lubbock,TX (NW Panhandle). I remember on day walking to class in a major sand storm and then all of a sudden BOOM here came the rain! It's raining MUD hallelujah, it's raining mud! LOL That was one of the worst mud rains I had seen.
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39. stormydee
9:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
88, your in my favorite state! :-)
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38. BlueWatch
9:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
SA is north of here...I'm right on the coast so we have lots of sand.
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37. stormydee
9:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
my friend by San Antonio commented on the thick mud TX gets, maybe its just his area...I don't get much mud here, too sandy, its thin mud.
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36. Mark1
4:18 PM CDT on October 03, 2005
I remember being at NASA and asking a NOAA meteorologist upstairs about something that was soon to be named Alison. His comment was "Oh its just going to be a rain event."
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35. 8888888889gg
9:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
SquirrelRJ i am 20 years old and live in sonora ca why?
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34. BlueWatch
9:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
...thinking back to the last time it rained....

um, we get mud, but not much different than mud anywhere else - they clay is too far down to impact the...erm...mud quality.
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33. stormydee
9:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Blue Watch, get much mud? Heard it can get real muddy there when it rains cause the ground is so thick, claylike...
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32. stormydee
9:16 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
bye 65...blog at u tomorrow. :-)
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31. stormydee
9:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
21 - its only 4:15, right? U get off at 5?
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30. SAINTHURRIFAN
9:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
well dr masters is the expert he says system will not be more than a weak tropical storm but juan had shear mingeled with a cold front and got a pressure down to 976 mb and 85mph winds in late oct so i leary of that intensity forecast and body else have athought.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 711
29. BlueWatch
9:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
South Texas, stormy. we got nothing from Rita (it was too far north of us), nothing from emily (too far south). we got some rain last night...but it was about as strong as an old man sneezing - last about as long, too. i can't remember the last decent rain we had...
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28. SquirrelRJ
9:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
8888888889gg, how old you are?

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27. weatherdude65
9:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
sorry 21 :-(
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26. stormydee
9:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
here 888 - read Link
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25. tornadoty
9:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
This comes from the Glossray of NHC/TPC Terms:

"Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.


Subtropical Depression:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.


Subtropical Storm:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more."
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24. Pensacola21
9:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Bye weatherdude
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23. Pensacola21
9:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I am STILL at work... =(
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22. weatherdude65
9:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
ok...my work day is done. Heading home, usually too busy at home to check in, so I'll be back tomorrow.
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21. Pensacola21
9:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Jeff says if part of it gets in the Gulf it will struggle... I sure hope that is the case...

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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