A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.

Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.

Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Civil Air Terminal, Bermuda
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569. IKE
96 hour ECMWF...

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is this what mode runs are forcasting?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF 48 hours:

Will those highs be strong enough to put the kibosh on any N. movement?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF 48 hours:

As per ECMWF... that deepening (compared to 24hr ago) TROF over the E ATL should keep 94L in a stagnant position for quite some time.
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Quoting DestinJeff:

Noted. Thanks for the input.

I am so, not trying to be mean at all and I don't mean any offense. When this blog is ON, it is an amazing place to hang out. Right now, I can't hand this link out or recommend it to anyone and that is a first. We need you guys and you need each other to do this the right way. You guys don't have to necessarily get along but you DO have to work together if we want to get to the point where we have Valid answers that make sense and are fully explained. How can we all learn anything if we can't freely exchange ideas and communicate properly?
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561. IKE
ECMWF has 94L moving slowly north through 72 hours.
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Looking at CIMSS vorticity at the 850 mb level the circulation with 94L has been gradually becoming better defined over the last few hours, and on visible spiral bands are starting to become noticeable, more so on the southern quadrant as the northern quadrant has some dry air intrusion.

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556. IKE
48 hour ECMWF...Link

72 hour ECMWF...Link
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12z ECMWF 48 hours:

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Quoting sammywammybamy:

Our State.

Fair enough. Maybe more your state now since I'm only a part time Floridian these days.

Your image caught my eye though since I had just been reading about the tragic storm surge history in Lake Okeechobee. Glad that have built better dikes since the 20's.
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I am sorry to say, that after coming to this blog for years, the forum section of Dr. Master's blog has now reached a stage of irrelevancy that I had hoped to never see. We have a hurricane smashing into Bermuda, flooding rains in Texas, models illustrating possibly some really intense situation for the CONUS, my home state in particular and there is not a single drop of information in any single post this past 24 hours that I find useful. That absolutely stinks. This blog is failing at it's primary job of generating educated discussions on tropical weather. You guys have turned this thing so personal that many of the people with the information have left. This blog is not a quarter as useful as it was just one week ago today. Not even sure why Dr. Masters should even attach his name to it any more to be honest with you. He does not need a bunch of bickering children. I believe he is doing this because he wants to create an environment where he can test his own theories and generate discussions that even he can learn from. Got news for you folks... No one is learning anything here of any value right now and we are in the middle of a season that, at the very least, is worth some serious study. GET BACK TO WORK PEOPLE AND LEARN TO GET ALONG!

Thanks for listening
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Sure there is, especially if you don't actually own anything besides the life God gave you. The more property / belongings you have, the less "fun" it gets... 's why mostly young pple have this kind of nostalgia....

I was twelve when Alicia hit Houston, and the one "fun" thing I remember was getting to have a candle in my bedroom and carrying a lantern into the bathroom with me to pee. Now that I'm an adult, I can do the same darn thing whenever I want, without the whole "riding out a hurricane" bit. :D
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545. IKE
Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 12 min 0 sec ago
77 °F
Rain Blowing Spray
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 54 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 67 mph
Pressure: 29.15 in (Falling)
Visibility: 1.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
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544. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15714
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
StormJunkie #418, very well said! I'd multiplus it if I could.

StormW posted links to his competing site repeatedly. That's a big no-no. And everyone knows it. Doesn't matter how good he was, and neither does it matter what else, if anything, was going on.

After having done that, no one could have reasonably expected StormW to be allowed to stay.
And a "very well said" to you also. I like the blog today, almost normal. Very good info, personal interaction, and NO flagging. Hope it continues. Long live respect!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting StormJunkie:
Beautiful pic KEH! Going to head out to Folly later and check out the waves again. Curious as to how they will compare to Earl's.

I will address this, since you have decided to come in and discuss this with the community. No one ran anyone off; those are the plain simple facts. I have been known to take some heat over the years and I am still here because it is my choice. I can deal with the heat and know that it is an inherent part of the blogosphere. When someone was given a second chance by Dr M and the members of this community, and they decide to self implode for a second time...They have only themselves to blame for it. Anyone who has the nerve to say they are "better than the NHC", and no they were not talking about with one storm or in one instance, is not exactly stable. I am sorry, but no one can sit at home with their personal pc, read Bastardi, look at a few maps, and in turn be better than the NHC (especially considering that the forecasts did not include forecast points upon which to verify the synopsis). Next, when one has an inferiority complex that only allows them to deal with people that agree with them; they are bound to failure in certain environments. This is an environment where everyone is entitled to their opinions. While you don't have to respect everyone's opinion; you certainly have to be able to respect their right to have their opinion. Furthermore, if you are an "expert" then you should be able to back up or at least have the ability to defend and debate your points of view. This blog was ridiculed with "poofs" and "so's" that would have made a "3rd grader" proud. For an adult to act as such, they can only expect for it to be pointed out.

One more time because I think this is a very important point. No one ran anyone off, people may choose to leave, people may fondle their own self destruct button; it is always a bad idea.

Best post of the year!!! I need to frame this one SJ!! Not sure I could of said it any better!! BRAVO!!
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"The blog is on IV drip now, slowly re-hydrating and recovering from the carnage of Red-shaded Friday."

It was a Cancer that had to be removed.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
i looked at the steering curent and see no reason why 94L is drifting northward. any thoughts
Read the entry under "Invest 94L" and you'll see why.

There is a weakness in the ridge located to the NE of him.
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does anyone think that the potential caribbean disturbance that's supposed to develop from the gfs will pull a wilma-like track? I live in se fla and it would be a nice relief to get a weak hurricane this way
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According to Recon, the worse of the weather within Igor resides inside the eastern quadrant.

By the way, the Fins are up 7-0. :)
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
good god, i come on here the other day and there is massive fighting now stormw has been booted?! i don't understand this place sometimes.

it is sprinkling here in northern cali., i have a feeling winter will bring lots of rain to west coast.
Just bad timing on your part! Hasn't been like this most of the day!
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Quoting BioChemist:
There were many people who were saying 94 was going to go far west because the ridge will build due to Igor.

I just dont see how this could happen given the current trend.
The only way is for 94l to remain weak, and just drift across
My only concern so far with 94L IS that it might remain weak and therefore drift west. OTOH, I'm not so convinced it's going to head off practically due north before reaching 45W, either. I'm hoping it strengthens sufficiently to be guided into the weakness left by its predecessors.

Quoting divdog:
There is nothing fun about being hit by a hurricane.
Sure there is, especially if you don't actually own anything besides the life God gave you. The more property / belongings you have, the less "fun" it gets... 's why mostly young pple have this kind of nostalgia....

Quoting BioChemist:

I think you mean west? right?

Thats what that Miami education will afford you :)

Gainesville, is where its at
Not sure why ur are so confused by this simple, clear statement... maybe something to do with Being in/of Gainsville????

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Be back later! Honey do's are calling!
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good god, i come on here the other day and there is massive fighting now stormw has been booted?! i don't understand this place sometimes.

it is sprinkling here in northern cali., i have a feeling winter will bring lots of rain to west coast.
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The cow/reindeer can't be beat!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 320 Comments: 31970
Post #504, I hope you recover from that mess down there!
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Quoting NRAamy:
Dashboard cowman!


Had to go back to my navigator. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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