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Karl dies over Mexico's mountains; Igor bears down on Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:28 PM GMT on September 18, 2010

Hurricane Karl dissipated early this morning over the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl made landfall yesterday on the Mexican coast about ten miles northwest of Veracruz at 1pm EDT, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl was the first landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Ike over Cuba in 2008, and the first major hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast since Hurricane Wilma in Southwest Florida in 2005. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Karl has dumped very heavy rains in Mexico's Veracruz state, with 218 mm (8.6") measured at Hacienda Yland Ylang, and 171 mm (6.7") at Japala.


Figure 1. Hurricane Karl as seen in this visible moonlight image from the F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:08pm EDT Thursday, September 16, 2010. The bright city lights of Mexico City are visible due west of Karl, and gas flares from the PEMEX drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to the east of Karl also make a bright splash of light. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just arrived in Hurricane Igor, and found that the inner 23-mile wide eyewall had collapsed. Igor now has a huge 92-mile wide eye, thanks to this eyewall replacement cycle. As is usually the case in eyewall replacement cycles, the peak winds of the hurricane have decreased, but hurricane force winds are now spread out over a larger area. Top winds at the surface as seen by the SFMR instrument were Category 1 strength, 82 mph, though the aircraft did see 130 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds should be of Category 3 strength, 115 mph. These stronger winds are apparently not mixing down to the surface in the usual fashion. A sonde dropped in the eye at 11:20am AST recorded a central pressure of 945 mb, about 6 mb higher than what NHC was estimating in their 11am AST advisory. Though conditions for intensification will remain favorable through Sunday afternoon, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and warm water temperatures of 28.5°C, we can expect only slow intensification of Igor. With such a huge eye, it will take Igor considerable time for it to bring the winds in this new eyewall back to Category 3 strength, and it will be difficult for the hurricane to be stronger than a high-end Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds when it makes its closest pass by Bermuda Sunday night.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:50 am AST Saturday September 18, 2010. A 22-mile wide inner eyewall was collapsing, and being replaced by a huge 92-mile diameter outer eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are flying for Bermuda, and winds are starting to rise on the island. Winds were blowing out of the northeast and had risen to 22 mph as of noon local time today. Igor's outer rain bands are now visible on Bermuda radar, and will reach the island late this afternoon. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 340 miles to the north of its center. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 13 mph during its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near 7 - 9pm AST tonight. Hurricane force winds will arrive at the island near 8 - 10pm AST Sunday night, and last for 8 - 10 hours. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 12 - 14 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 2 hurricane conditions to arrive at the island on Sunday night, with waves of 20 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones. If Igor remains below Category 3 strength, as currently appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low to moderate for the next four days, and 94L should be able to develop into a tropical depression if it can fight off the dry air to its north. The ECMWF model develops 94L into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 30% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Steering currents favor 94L moving northwest out to sea.

Typhoon Fanapi
The strongest typhoon of the very quiet Western Pacific typhoon season is now Typhoon Fanapi, a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi is on track to hit Taiwan on Sunday morning as a Category 3 typhoon, then hit mainland China on Monday morning as a tropical storm. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at 04:45 UTC on September 17, 2010, as it approached Taiwan from the Philippine Sea. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Texas is due to an region of upper level winds that are spreading out, encouraging thunderstorm updrafts to pull more air aloft. I don't expect this region to develop due to its close proximity to the coast. The NOGAPS model is predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now. The GFS model has backed off developing anything in the Caribbean next week.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1894. sunlinepr
2:49 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1893. winter123
8:29 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Bermuda Sun has some great images. I particularly like the one it's on now/.
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1891. stillwaiting
2:35 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Bermudas going to receive a long duration event resulting in potentially historic beach erosion and/or surge flooding imo
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1890. muddertracker
2:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1:


Storm surge won't be nearly as bad as a hit on CONUS because there is no continental shelf. Probably only about two feet.

Good news!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1889. StormJunkie
2:33 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1887. Grothar
2:30 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:


Good morning all.

atmo, I believe it was the FSU Experimental page that use to have a link to all of the computers that process their data. It showed processor stats, how much memory was being used, etc. The last computer on that list was a Commodore 64. It was always overclocked, and out of memory and it was processing something like .00001% of the data. Was neat to see it there, but I can't seem to find that link anymore. Granted the 64 was a long site from 1940-1960's computing...


Commodore 64
Type Home computer
Release date August 1982
Discontinued April 1994
Operating system Commodore KERNAL/
Commodore BASIC 2.0
CPU MOS Technology 6510
@ 1.023 MHz (NTSC version)
@ 0.985 MHz (PAL version)
Memory 64 kB RAM + 20 kB ROM
Graphics VIC-II (320 × 200, 16 colors, sprites, raster interrupt)
Sound SID 6581 (3× Osc, 4× Wave, Filter, ADSR, Ring)
Connectivity 2× CIA 6526 Joystick, Power, Cartridge, RF, A/V, IEEE-488 Floppy/Printer, Digital tape, GPIO/RS-232
Predecessor Commodore VIC-20
Successor Commodore 128
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1886. StormJunkie
2:28 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
We had a Tandy(Radio Shack) 64K..It was alright I guess..I sorta liked all the green print..:)


Had a Tandy myself...until we upgraded to the TRS-80 Coco.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1885. doorman79
2:27 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
Live streaming video from Bermuda


Thats a cool link Aussie! You could see the boat in the bay one second and then you can't. Thats alot of rain!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1884. hydrus
2:26 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:


Good morning all.

atmo, I believe it was the FSU Experimental page that use to have a link to all of the computers that process their data. It showed processor stats, how much memory was being used, etc. The last computer on that list was a Commodore 64. It was always overclocked, and out of memory and it was processing something like .00001% of the data. Was neat to see it there, but I can't seem to find that link anymore. Granted the 64 was a long site from 1940-1960's computing...
We had a Tandy(Radio Shack) 64K..It was alright I guess..I sorta liked all the green print..:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1883. Neapolitan
2:25 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
(Moved to new post.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1881. hydrus
2:24 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
71 mph...They are starting to get the bad stuff now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1879. atmoaggie
2:22 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Mikla:
OK... dumb question... I hit that PITA Rich Text button by accident and forget where I go to reset defaults... anyone?
Thanks.
I haven't stepped in that myself, and I know I saw a more elegant way, but if you delete your cookies and log back in to WU, default settings will apply (bringing you back into the fold of normalcy).

(Note: You WILL have to log in after you delete cookies. Know your sign in email and password?)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1878. StormJunkie
2:22 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)


Good morning all.

atmo, I believe it was the FSU Experimental page that use to have a link to all of the computers that process their data. It showed processor stats, how much memory was being used, etc. The last computer on that list was a Commodore 64. It was always overclocked, and out of memory and it was processing something like .00001% of the data. Was neat to see it there, but I can't seem to find that link anymore. Granted the 64 was a long site from 1940-1960's computing...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1877. hydrus
2:22 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Mikla:
OK... dumb question... I hit that PITA Rich Text button by accident and forget where I go to reset defaults... anyone?
Thanks.
Go to (view) then (toolbar) then (navigation bar)...that should help some...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1876. IKE
2:21 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Starting to like what I see with 94L:



NATL graveyard with 94L.

..........................................


Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 14 sec ago
Heavy Rain
77 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 46 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 71 mph
Pressure: 29.39 in (Falling)

Visibility: 0.5 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1875. aislinnpaps
2:21 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Wow, the winds have really picked up since yesterday. (Of course - since he's closer)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1872. Grothar
2:20 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
I actually used to know how to wire these, although this was actually a little before my time. Anyone remember the 80 - 80 board?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1871. atmoaggie
2:19 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ah, laugh if you will, but in computer programming, there are heavily-used "carriage return" and "line feed" characters to this day. I often wonder how many of the young'uns have even the slightest idea how those words came into being...
lol.

And, I write scripts that include those, on purpose, all of the time.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1869. hydrus
2:19 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)
Oh yeah..All that magnetic tape..I wonder how much of that stuff the government has laying around waiting to be micro-chipped. We definitely are in an active and interesting period tropically..I am wondering how much longer we will avoid a strike from a full blown hurricane on the U.S. It is my estimation that there will be two landfalls on U.S. soil.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1868. AussieStorm
2:19 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Live streaming video from Bermuda
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1867. blsealevel
2:18 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Upper Divergence



Lower Convergence

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1866. muddertracker
2:18 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Iggy is a Cat-1, but he's still pushing a lot of water. I pray the storm surge is manageable for the island. It looks like the wind won't be much of a problem thanks to strict building codes and such. Good Luck and
God Bless Bermuda! I, too have been watching that ball of convection in the carribean..interesting..
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1865. atmoaggie
2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Bermuda beginning to get windy.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1864. Grothar
2:16 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)


No, but you look good in that picture. I am talking about this eniac, and by the way that is not a picture of my daughter. LOL This is one of the earlier weather computers.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1863. Mikla
2:16 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
OK... dumb question... I hit that PITA Rich Text button by accident and forget where I go to reset defaults... anyone?
Thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1862. Neapolitan
2:16 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting WeatherMum:
oh, you mean the "return carriage" key? All these new fangled gadgets :P


Ah, laugh if you will, but in computer programming, there are heavily-used "carriage return" and "line feed" characters to this day. I often wonder how many of the young'uns have even the slightest idea how those words came into being...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1861. aislinnpaps
2:15 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)


I remember the bru-haha from a number of people that computers would be horrible because they would take jobs away from people. Where would the world and forecasting be without them today?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1858. atmoaggie
2:14 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Igor's COC just showing up in radar:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1857. aislinnpaps
2:13 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Does anyone have any idea how much longer the ridge will hold that has been protecting the upper Gulf Coast, the TX/LA area?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1856. WeatherMum
2:13 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


He's not kidding!
oh, you mean the "return carriage" key? All these new fangled gadgets :P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1855. atmoaggie
2:12 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Busy but good....It is important that I clarify computers in the 1940,s era were not "actually" computers. The were nothing more than a wad of vacuum tubes....computer,...HHHAAAAA!..Hope you are doing well Gro....How is the Geritol I.V. thing Goin? hehe.
This was the machine that was in our office in 1962...


(I suppose you could call it computing.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1854. aislinnpaps
2:12 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)


Poor little Grother. Tell him he needs to do the buying next time and to include extras! *G*
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1853. aislinnpaps
2:11 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting WXTXN:
No Round two. Her name is COSMIC!


Heh! That was what I thought of too late last night, but since I'd been DQ'd, I didn't say anything.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1852. RENONV
2:10 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
1
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1851. CaribBoy
2:10 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Why in the world 94L would eject to the N while everything east of 60W is going West. It's not even a strong system yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1850. WXTXN
2:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)
No Round two. Her name is COSMIC!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1849. PompanoDonna
2:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)


He gave the name last night, it was Cosmic.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1848. hydrus
2:08 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Seflhurricane:
there were models supporting a system developing in the carribean of the coast of nicaragua and moving it northward across cuba and southern florida sometime towards the end of the month, have the models backed out ?????
No.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1847. hydrus
2:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Just think from the 40's and 50's and you will know how I feel. How you doing hydrus???
Busy but good....It is important that I clarify computers in the 1940,s era were not "actually" computers. The were nothing more than a wad of vacuum tubes....computer,...HHHAAAAA!..Hope you are doing well Gro....How is the Geritol I.V. thing Goin? hehe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1846. Grothar
2:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps:


LOL!! First thing I did this morning was to look if I had any mail. I guess round two begins tonight. How are ya?


Good, little Grothar found 3 of his chocolate doughnuts gone this morning. Wait until we get a hold of Cosmic. (By the way, bloggers, CosmicEvents is holding us hostage trying to guess his dog's name which has something to do with tropical storms.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1845. blsealevel
2:05 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Well i think i'm watching the cloud mess coming up from South in the Carib.

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1844. Seflhurricane
2:05 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
there were models supporting a system developing in the carribean of the coast of nicaragua and moving it northward across cuba and southern florida sometime towards the end of the month, have the models backed out ?????
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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