Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.


Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)
Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Hermine is on the way (BBedford)
Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.
Hermine is on the way
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)
An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX

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Quoting FloridaHeat:


i am thinking it may just be better to be right on the beach maybe in a parking lot or maybe on the roof of a hotel or ocean front building if things got very bad you could always have a chain and chain yourself to the building


While flying debris decapitates you.

In Twister, all that grain shooting through the air in the F5 should have done some damage...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I thought I would post this so grown people would stop using it..Why announce it? Who cares..just put people on ignore and move on..school is in session..at least thats what I thought?

POOF (noun)
The noun POOF has 1 sense:

1. offensive terms for an openly homosexual man




i have never heard that term but i am just bi
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I wonder why GFS, and others, are not really developing 92l into anything scary. Is sheer expected to increase? I don't see much in the way of dry air.

I wish I could chase tornados. I'm too old now with too many responsibilities :*(
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Recent wind direction in Barbados from the North....Interesting;

Grantley Adams
latitude: 13-04N, longitude: 059-29W, elevation: 50 m
The report was made 16 minutes ago, at 18:00 UTC
Wind 11 kt from north
Temperature 25°C
Humidity 94%
Pressure 1009 hPa
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


you are probably right i kind of hope 92l will form so i can chase it
make sure you start where it all begins, chase by boat...you will avoid potential harm to others and keep EMS from making a needless rescue. Oh, and watch out fr the transition to a tornado...

...please step away from the computer.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Current path projections for 92L put it just South of Haiti in 4-days. According to intensity forecasts, it will be a Cat-1 hurricane and Haiti will be receiving a LOT of rain. Hope people are prepared.
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728. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2010


A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN IT IS
LOCATED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 15N59W CROSSING
THE LOW CENTER NEAR 12N60W CONTINUING SOUTH TO ABOUT 9N61W. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...MOST LIKELY
RELATED TO MONSOONAL TROUGHINESS IN THIS GENERAL REGION. BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE ATLANTIC ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Hmmm, I'd advise staying off the road as much as possible during bad weather...

Some nice hurricane damage shots involving cars:


Wilma


Katrina


Andrew


Andrew


Ike

And, remember, EMS folks will try to rescue you from your situation... you'll be putting their lives in jeopardy as well...



Allison
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
726. HCW
Recon Saturday for 92L


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 09 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14.0N AND 64.0W FOR 11/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY 2 A DAY RESEARCH MISSIONS
DEPARTING AT 10/0900Z AND 1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.
Reply With Quote
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


gulp


To say the least...

Cars easily get airborne... do the local Emergency folks a favor and stay in a safe location... please?
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723. IKE
96 hour ECMWF...Link
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Quoting ncstorm:
I thought I would post this so grown people would stop using it..Why announce it? Who cares..just put people on ignore and move on..school is in session..at least thats what I thought?

POOF (noun)
The noun POOF has 1 sense:

1. offensive terms for an openly homosexual man





I just had my Gatorade shoot thru my nose!!! Thanks!! LMAO!!!
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Quoting angiest:


I don't know if it's happened (in a hurricane) but how many times do you have a big parking garage right on the coast? They are a bit of an eyesore and waterfront property comes at such a premium that they would be located behind the hotel or office or whatever. Even if they provide some shelter (dubious) I don't know that there would be much of interest to see.


i am thinking it may just be better to be right on the beach maybe in a parking lot or maybe on the roof of a hotel or ocean front building if things got very bad you could always have a chain and chain yourself to the building
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#715....WELL SAID!!!!!!!
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Quoting angiest:


I don't know if it's happened (in a hurricane) but how many times do you have a big parking garage right on the coast? They are a bit of an eyesore and waterfront property comes at such a premium that they would be located behind the hotel or office or whatever. Even if they provide some shelter (dubious) I don't know that there would be much of interest to see.


Around here in NW Florida there are plenty of big parking garages right on the coast sitting under beachfront Condos.
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Quoting barbamz:


Watch Levi`s tidbits. Nice explanation there.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=348


Ah, Thank you! and angiest as well, for replying.
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Quoting angiest:


I don't know if it's happened (in a hurricane) but how many times do you have a big parking garage right on the coast? They are a bit of an eyesore and waterfront property comes at such a premium that they would be located behind the hotel or office or whatever. Even if they provide some shelter (dubious) I don't know that there would be much of interest to see.


Also, living in Biloxi, I see many concrete structures that didn't survive Katrina. Being in a parking garage is just asking for a crushing.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Hmmm, I'd advise staying off the road as much as possible during bad weather...

Some nice hurricane damage shots involving cars:


Wilma


Katrina


Andrew


Andrew


Ike

And, remember, EMS folks will try to rescue you from your situation... you'll be putting their lives in jeopardy as well...


My wife's car got destroyed by a falling tree during Wilma
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I thought I would post this so grown people would stop using it..Why announce it? Who cares..just put people on ignore and move on..school is in session..at least thats what I thought?

POOF (noun)
The noun POOF has 1 sense:

1. offensive terms for an openly homosexual man


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


As long as I'm on his/her ignore list.

72 hour ECMWF...


THURSDAY

If it's not Igor, it will be the next one behind it.

A tandem, probably a trio, of tropical cyclones will have originated in the African wave train over the next 10-15 days and two, perhaps three, will come out of a more westward and southward source region discussed in yesterday's post. One of each is evident now, the African origin with Igor, the storm to be named probably before the weekend is through in the Caribbean, now organizing east of the southern Windwards.

The overall pattern in 10-20 days is almost textbook for U.S. hits. The question is how does this come about. If Igor misses the connection with the trough near 60 west in 7-10 days, it will be the first threat for the East coast... but as I will show on the Long Ranger, in the longer term, the pattern says come to the U.S. in the means with the classic positive over southeastern Canada and negatives through the Gulf and into the southwest Atlantic. The last time that occurred we had Earl miss 50-100 miles east and a fast-rallying Hermine hit. The ante is upped here given the overall pattern being more favored for the Caribbean lighting up faster out of the second source. What could happen is the Caribbean system misses south, Igor misses east and then the following two close the gap in between. The reason the following two should not simply do the same as the front two is because the pattern evolves differently. Let's remember Earl got all the way back to 75.2; the original target recurve was quite a bit farther east with Fiona farther west. What usually happens here is it may take a while to get a handle on which one will do it, but one of them usually does. In the pattern backing up, and you saw this with Dennis and Floyd, Edouard and Fran, the second may be the one to come farther west. This time though, we are dealing with a much more pregnant situation since the Caribbean is starting to open for business. The Hatch-it Job folks are on this as they have changed from mellow yellow to orange you getting more concerned?

Igor is looking better as the other low to the northeast is pulling it up toward it and it is coming down toward Igor. Soon, it will combine and turn due west and start to intensify.. A Fujiwara effect in the eastern Atlantic... though I guess by where it is, it would be a Fujiverde.

In front of Igor are two swirls, one up near 22 north and 40 west and the other near 16 north and 42 west, while another strong wave is over Africa ready to follow Igor once he starts west.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.
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I have a bad feeling 92L is gonna take a pass thru the Yucatan channel..and that would be really bad for someone!!
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Quoting TampaTom:


Hmmm, I'd advise staying off the road as much as possible during bad weather...

Some nice hurricane damage shots involving cars:


Wilma


Katrina


Andrew


Andrew


Ike

And, remember, EMS folks will try to rescue you from your situation... you'll be putting their lives in jeopardy as well...


Grrr, hang on while I find a different copy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaTom:


Hmmm, I'd advise staying off the road as much as possible during bad weather...

Some nice hurricane damage shots involving cars:


Wilma


Katrina


Andrew


Andrew


Ike

And, remember, EMS folks will try to rescue you from your situation... you'll be putting their lives in jeopardy as well...


gulp
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Quoting cocoabeachcane:


You have a link to a news story on that happening in the US in the last 25 years?


I don't know if it's happened (in a hurricane) but how many times do you have a big parking garage right on the coast? They are a bit of an eyesore and waterfront property comes at such a premium that they would be located behind the hotel or office or whatever. Even if they provide some shelter (dubious) I don't know that there would be much of interest to see.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


I've wondered the same but I have no idea.


same here
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
i wonder if i should try chasing a tstorm before trying to chase a hurricane


Hmmm, I'd advise staying off the road as much as possible during bad weather...

Some nice hurricane damage shots involving cars:


Wilma


Katrina


Andrew


Andrew


Ike

And, remember, EMS folks will try to rescue you from your situation... you'll be putting their lives in jeopardy as well...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


Sorry for reposting this, am I on ignore?


Watch Levi`s tidbits. Nice explanation there.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=348
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705. IKE
Quoting FloridaHeat:


he didnt actually poof you because if he did he could not have done a double poof also


As long as I'm on his/her ignore list.

72 hour ECMWF...

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Quoting angiest:


My point being that I'm sure a lot of those people were locals (OK) who were out because it was something in their backyard. I put professional in quotes because not all storm chasers make their primary living doing it, but if you routinely make that kind of drive you might qualify in that definition of "professional."


Oh, there were plenty of "backyard" chasers in that storm, I even have video of someone chasing in a Porsche :/ But this was actually my first official chase, I am a registered storm spotter for my local NWS office, and I have had years of learning from my dad who was a skywarn spotter in NE Texas for several years. I have taken spotter classes, read the books and manuals, and had my first official chase trip in May. I was able to see two tornadoes, and many awesome cloud structures, as well as meet some fairly famous chasers.
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Quoting angiest:


I've wondered the same but I have no idea.

i also wonder if i am on ingore sometimes because i ask questions and do not always get an answer
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702. xcool
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Quoting hcubed:
Quoting hunkerdown:
they are all named "L" on this map :P

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
So what does that tell you?

That all "L" is about to break loose?


I was thinking along the lines of "Here's your sign..."
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


so explain to me then what happened to the people that believed that and the parking garage collapsed WITH THE SUV AND PEOPLE IN IT!


You have a link to a news story on that happening in the US in the last 25 years?
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Quoting xcool:



Holy Moley - this is one for me and KanKunKid to watch closely!
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92L

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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


Sorry for reposting this, am I on ignore?


I've wondered the same but I have no idea.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


uncall for ike did nothing wrong


Chill heat. I got nothing but love for the guy.
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Quoting tornadodude:


I dont consider myself a professional, but I did drive 4600 miles in 5 days, from Indiana, to get to that chase and the day before. I do however consider myself a very knowledgeable chaser and also have good instincts with severe storms as well.


My point being that I'm sure a lot of those people were locals (OK) who were out because it was something in their backyard. I put professional in quotes because not all storm chasers make their primary living doing it, but if you routinely make that kind of drive you might qualify in that definition of "professional."
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Quoting IKE:


Good...I've been wanting to poof you for a long time too.

Bye. 108 and counting.


he didnt actually poof you because if he did he could not have done a double poof also
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Especially women.

Nothing replaces field experience :)
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Quoting hunkerdown:
they are all named "L" on this map :P

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
So what does that tell you?

That all "L" is about to break loose?
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
Hello there, long time lurker out and about. I have a question for any of the regular poster.
Does anyone know what was the precursor of Invest 92L?
I know that most of the disturbance in the Atlantic basin originates from the African Easterly Waves, but it seems that the vortex that spun into 92L drifted from South America?
Thanks in advance :)


Sorry for reposting this, am I on ignore?
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
DOUBLE POOF


uncall for ike did nothing wrong
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688. Vero1
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Quoting angiest:


Yeah I was also gonna suggest not trying chasing as well.

As for the clogged roads, how many of them were "professional" storm chasers, the ones who drive a thousand miles just to get to a chase that will be several hundred more miles of driving (Reed Timmer et al.) versus local people out joy riding?


I dont consider myself a professional, but I did drive 4600 miles in 5 days, from Indiana, to get to that chase and the day before. I do however consider myself a very knowledgeable chaser and also have good instincts with severe storms as well.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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