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Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.


Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)
Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Hermine is on the way (BBedford)
Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.
Hermine is on the way
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)
An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting DestinJeff:


well the 18z sends Igor to about 67/68W.... 00Z will go to 75 I think, maybe 80.

We'll see.


pfffffft doom
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2183. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If you didn’t have that dress on, I wouldn’t have.


You can tell me now, was it the size 12 shoes I was wearing that gave me away?
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2181. xcool
CoopNTexas haha
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gas main explosion in San Bruno, Ca near SFO

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/livenow?id=6498350
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Quoting Grothar:


If anyone should know, it would be you. Thanks for helping me into the lifeboat.


If you didn’t have that dress on, I wouldn’t have.
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One of San fransisco's suburbs is burning!!!!!,large explosion reported,quite a few large urban fires this week;detroit,staton island and this......
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That "possible plane crash" turned out to be a 16-24 inch natural gas line that exploded and caught a residential area on fire. It has gone 6 alarms, call back of off duty personnel. For more info www.firehouse.com
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2175. Grothar
Quoting btwntx08:

theres no 11 pm two it was at 8 pm next is at 2 am


bt, I have told you before, stop confusing the old people. You mean there is no two at 11PM but a two at 8. Would there ever be a two at 2, or is the 5 ever a two?? I would really like to know?
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2174. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:

theres no 11 pm two it was at 8 pm next is at 2 am


prob map was updated at 10 35 pm correct? read what it says in the orange circle thanks
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2173. scott39
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Well, I was going to say Gustav, but he was a creation of late August, so I guess you would have to go to Hurricane Isidore from 2002:

Not saying 92L wont develope, but history shows slim chances developing in the Eastern Carribean this time of year. Now that I said this it will be a Cat 6.5 in a couple of days!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar hasn’t been the same since a piece of the iceberg that the Titanic struck hit him in the head.


Does that mean we can sell his head for lots of money as a hysterical, um, historical artee-fact?
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2170. Grothar
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Naaayyyyy


LOL
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NAM is garbage. Has been, always will...LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


You mean Frau Blücher isn't here yet?
Naaayyyyy
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2166. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar hasn’t been the same since a piece of the iceberg that the Titanic struck hit him in the head.


If anyone should know, it would be you. Thanks for helping me into the lifeboat.
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Link
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2163. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
come on, you guys are jumping way ahead, we are still on our way to the castle...


You mean Frau Blücher isn't here yet?
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Quoting Grothar:


Abby something!


Hmmmm... Abby?... Could it be... Abby-NORMAL!!!
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I think tomorrow, with all the possibilities in the Atlantic....the biggest surprise we'll see when we wake up is going to be a re-generation from ex-gastone.....in some form.
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Grothar hasn’t been the same since a piece of the iceberg that the Titanic struck hit him in the head.
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Quoting scott39:
Was that in October, if so how many developed in the E Carribean, the first part of September?

Well, I was going to say Gustav, but he was a creation of late August, so I guess you would have to go to Hurricane Isidore from 2002:

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Quoting Grothar:


Abby something!
come on, you guys are jumping way ahead, we are still on our way to the castle...
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2156. 7544
nhc at 11pm says 92l will gradualy develope so i guess we could see this happen soon maybe at damx tonight
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2155. Grothar
Quoting fatlady99:


Ummm... Eye-gor.... Whose brain was it???


Abby something!
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Quoting MZT:
Don't bother me now. Can't you see I'm ... WORKING?

Don't bother me now. Can't you see I'm ... WORKING?


Bruha! *rumble of thunder*
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2153. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Missed the movie Reference. I watched that when I was a kid and didnt get it. I will definitely rent that one! LOL


It's is OK. We have been doing it for days. I guess only the ones on here over 90 have gotten the little quips. I was actually to old to go the movies when it came out, but watched it many times.
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Quoting Grothar:


No, I don't!!!


Ummm... Eye-gor.... Whose brain was it???
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Quoting Grothar:


No, I don't!!!
suit yourself, I'm easy.
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Quoting MZT:
It's worth keeping the Africa images in context, though. There are storms rolling off the continent all year. It's mainly this time of year that they can come off far enough north to imbed into the trades.

Plus, the current of the shore of Africa turns quite cool in the fall. That snuffs out many impressive systems once we get far enough into October.


Yes, many impressive system are snuffed out in October. But since it's only the start of the second week of September, I repeat: there's a lot of African action still to come. This map shows all points of Atlantic TC genesis between 1851 and 2009 for the middle third of September. As you can see, things are pretty well spread around...

Click for larger image:

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Quoting Orcasystems:
gastooon looks better the 92




Yea Orca - I agree.
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2147. MZT
Don't bother me now. Can't you see I'm ... WORKING?
Quoting RecordSeason:
2132:

Have you never seen "Young Frankenstein"


Don't bother me now. Can't you see I'm ... WORKING?
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2146. xcool


nam follow cmc now
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2144. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
I thought you wanted to ?


No, I don't!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


Too late!!!


LOL!! XD!
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2141. scott39
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Omar from 2008:

Was that in October, if so how many developed in the E Carribean, the first part of September?
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Quoting Grothar:


Why are you talking that way????
I thought you wanted to ?
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2139. Grothar
Quoting fatlady99:


Dahm your eyes!!!


Too late!!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
The NHC discussions always tell so much more than the track forecast itself.


True. But to be fair, they did mention that the official forecast track was shifted significantly southward on this package.
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Quoting Grothar:


Why are you talking that way????


Dahm your eyes!!!
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2136. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wake me up before it goes, goes:



I think I created a monster. Can't you post anything but animated images? LOL
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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