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Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1485. Drakoen
2:21 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey Drak!


Hello!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1484. stormwatcherCI
2:21 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gaston looks to stay south of the Bermuda Triangle, so I dont think he's gonna dissapear this coming week
+1
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1483. CybrTeddy
2:21 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


In Bay of Campeche?


Yep. Remnants of TD-11E.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1480. wunderkidcayman
2:21 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
gaston could become a TD somewhere between 55W-60W between 17.5N-15.5N
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1479. WeatherNerdPR
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
10L.TEN
09L.GASTON
07L.EARL

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST
10W.MALOU

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere

Earl? lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1478. HurricaneGeek
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD10 is the 5th tropical cyclone to form in two weeks.


But you must remember this season is dead. shhhhh.

Also I'd look for Hermine late this week in the E ATL. Atlantic. Not Atlanta. =)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1477. o22sail
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD10 is the 5th tropical cyclone to form in two weeks.


Bust seasons are like that. lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1476. xcool
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
HurricaneSwirl i think going much far N
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1475. RitaEvac
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Gaston looks to stay south of the Bermuda Triangle, so I dont think he's gonna dissapear this coming week
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1474. MiamiHurricanes09
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
The initial intensity is set for 30mph and 1003mb.

AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 25, 1003, TD,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1473. Neapolitan
2:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD10 is the 5th tropical cyclone to form in two weeks.


Darn busted season. Keep that up until the end of October and we'll end up with, what, 27? ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1472. WeatherNerdPR
2:19 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
I wanna see TD10's cone when it comes out in half an hour.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1471. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:19 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
10L.TEN
09L.GASTON
07L.EARL

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST
10W.MALOU

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1470. txraysfan
2:19 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
90L=20.5n 95w
Have not been watching today-what's happening with boc?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1469. CybrTeddy
2:19 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting AllStar17:
EVERY Tropical Cyclone that has formed this season has affected land. Talk about a concerning trend.


Danielle not so much, but it got close enough to Bermuda to cause TS warnings.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:18 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:
Trouble brewing fast now.

aye it approachest the triple nickel
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1467. RitaEvac
2:18 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
all the regulars come on....you know somethings going on
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1466. AllStar17
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
EVERY Tropical Cyclone that has formed this season has affected land. Talk about a concerning trend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1465. WeatherNerdPR
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I go to watch the original star wars for 5 minutes and a TD is declared, go figure.

LOL!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1464. CybrTeddy
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
I like 21N 95.5W for 90L at the moment. Seems a bit broad still. Hope ASCAT catches it.


No longer 90L, she's been upgraded to TD10.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1463. stormpetrol
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow gaston near us in 7 days wow that is going to be big

For God Sakes don't say that, that is last thing we need around here, hopefully it won't amount to much or dissipate, but being realistic the TCHP in the Eastern to Western caribbean is a frightful scenario playing out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1462. GeoffreyWPB
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
AL, 10, 2010090600, BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 25, 1003, TD
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1461. HurricaneSwirl
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
so where is TD10 heading, thats the question now


I personally think it's heading towards mid or south Tamaulipas:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1460. CybrTeddy
2:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
TD10 is the 5th tropical cyclone to form in two weeks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1459. Skyepony (Mod)
2:16 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
I like 21N 95.5W for 90L at the moment. Seems a bit broad still. Hope ASCAT catches it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1458. WeatherNerdPR
2:16 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
90L Has gained sufficient organization to classified as a tropical depression

Hey Drak!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1457. MiamiHurricanes09
2:16 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
90L Has gained sufficient organization to classified as a tropical depression
I agree now. Nice cluster of organized deep convection atop the circulation.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1456. CybrTeddy
2:16 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
I go to watch the original star wars for 5 minutes and a TD is declared, go figure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1455. foggymyst
2:16 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Thanks StormJunkie.. just seems like many are focused on the long range and all we can do is wait.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1454. Autistic2
2:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Would someone with some knowledge of tropical weather please tell me. Is the season likely to be over for Florida. Seams like everything wants to cure or recurve out to sea this year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1453. NCHurricane2009
2:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:
Trouble brewing fast now.



LOL, I was thinking that 48 hours ago, and bam, Gaston choked again on dry air. But seriously, this time you could be right as Gaston is heading toward more moist air. But it wouldn't surprise me either if Gaston choked on dry air again at least during the next day. Just watch out in the NE Caribbean!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bingo! TD10!

invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren


Pffffssshhh....(spitting out coffee). What are you saying? 90L is TD 10 now?!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1452. redwagon
2:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
I think it's remarkable that we all know Gaston is going to do something and go somewhere, despite being set back at every turn with further major challenges ahead.

On the day he was born, he just seemed inevitable.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1451. Drakoen
2:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
90L Has gained sufficient organization to classified as a tropical depression
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
so where is TD10 heading, thats the question now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


You spoke just one post too soon lol.

We have TD10.

lol read comment #1445
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1448. xcool
btwntx08 maybe ts soon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wow! TD10!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1446. xcool
THAT SO CRAZY
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
TD:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Lol That comment is below the comment where I asked if there was no renumber!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1442. xcool
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
90L=20.5n 95w
Due south of IAH/Houston. needs to stay that way.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Trouble brewing fast now.

What do you think ? TD by 7 am?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Bingo! We have TD#10.

invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I guess no renumber right?


You spoke just one post too soon lol.

We have TD10.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1437. xcool
90L AT 20.4N 95W
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting foggymyst:
Just asking.. how valid are these long range models? I have seen some that put Gaston south and the navy up by Bahamas.


Where after the Bahamas do some of these models take Gaston?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1435. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
Gaston will face lots of troubles. I keep saying it... it will ammount to some organized showers and gusty weather. Maybe a minimal tropical storm passing south of PR. Not much else I think.

(watch it pull a Jeanne and shut me up tomorrow)


LOL!
It already shut me up when I said it would probably not develop much convection today after seeing it fall apart at 2am. XD
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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