TD 20 intensifies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2005

Tropical Depression 20
Tropical Depression 20 is intensifying as it moves slowly towards the Yucatan Peninsula. More spiral banding is evident on satellite imagery this afternoon, and the storm now has two good outflow channels, to the north and the south. The wind shear has fallen significantly, and is now just 5 knots out of the east. The center of the depression is about 70 miles south of buoy 42056, which itself is about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. The buoy recently measured sustained winds of 34 mph gusting to 40 mph. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured peak winds of 30 mph in the southeast quadrant of the storm at 3 pm EDT today.

The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday, and will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday. It will then have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and TD 20 may be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. The forecast track is problematic, as none of the forecast models did a good job initializing this small and weak system this morning. Several models get confused about the identity of this system, and try to develop another tropical storm near the Florida Keys on Tuesday, and still keep this storm in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian model suggests that TD 20 will threaten the northeast Mexican coast, but move northward and threaten Texas as well. The coast of northeast Mexico well south of Texas is the most likely target suggested by the rest of the models, but we won't have a good idea of where TD 20 will go until Sunday morning, after the 00Z (8pm EDT) model runs are available.

Hurricane Otis threatening Baja and Arizona
Hurricane Otis reached its peak intensity early this morning--a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph. Otis is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, and is expected to slowly creep northwestward over cooler waters and gradually weaken. By the time it takes a more northerly track and crosses the Baja Peninsula on Monday, Otis will probably be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from Otis's center, so only a small portion of the coast will receive wind damage. Heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will be the main problems with Otis, potentially triggering serious flash flooding in the desert mountains of Mexico. By Tuesday, portions of southern Arizona may receive 3 - 5 inches of rain, creating flash flooding problems there.

Figure 2. Hurricane Otis.

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is far out over the Atlantic Ocean, about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The environment for strengthening is fair, and we will probably see this system become a tropical storm tonight. A hurricane seems unlikely, as this system is expected to move northwest or northward for the next five days into a region of increasing wind shear. It will be interesting to see if this storm or TD 20 wins the race to become Stan--loser gets the name Tammy. If they both get upgraded on the same advisory, how does NHC decide which storm gets which name? I'm not sure the problem has ever arisen, and I hope they do something scientific like play a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors to decide.

Disturbance 500 miles east of Trinidad
A disturbed area of weather has developed 500 miles east of Trinidad and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon. This disturbance is currently under an area of 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, but this shear is forecast to diminish the next several days. This may allow some slow development to occur as the disturbance tracks westward at 15 mph.

Flood watches are posted for all of the Hawaiian Islands as the moisture from Tropical Depression Kenneth moves over today. As yet, no heavy rains have impacted the islands.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 130 mph sustained winds, is headed towards a landfall on Taiwan Sunday. The upper-level outflow from the typhoon has degraded today, but there is no apparent wind shear affecting it, so landfall as a Category 3 storm is likely. Longwang is expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm after passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan and continue on to strike mainland China on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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314. matilda101
2:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
Dr Masters has a new blog
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
313. IKE
2:18 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
There does seem to be something around 70W, 23-24N...and it does seem to be organized.
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312. matilda101
2:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
Judging from the morning satelite pics the most interesting area appears to be at 69w 22n it is sandwiched between to upper lows. One is to the NW and the other appears to be to the SE and it may be creating a favorable upper level enviroment. Is there a hint of an anti cyclone above it?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
311. IKE
1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
Looks like what's east of the bahamas will cross Florida into the eastern gulf...then get pulled NNE with an approaching cold front. Will it be a TS..Tammy...possibly.

Stan will head west across the yucatan and over toward Mexico.

But for the southeast it's what is moving west toward Florida. Could get interesting.
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310. dcw
1:54 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
Yeah, the Gulf stays warm almost year-round, Hurricane Season ends more because of a lack of waves than cold SSTs. Temps in the gulf rarely go below 65 at any point in the year.

Check out the latest Microwave image on the ull at 22N 64W.
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309. matilda101
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
The two areas of convection to the east of Bahamas continue to grow and fester. I predict that the NHC on the 11:30 am Tropical Outlook will suggest possible tropical development of the system over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward. I've been tracking the upper level low for about a week as it has traversed the Atlantic on a steady west-southwest movement. The Florida and Southeast coastline should moniter the situation as that has been the favored area of development for August and September
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
308. Hecker
1:19 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
Gulf hurricanes have happened as late as December 20 (see LiLi)
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307. mybahamas
9:02 AM EDT on October 02, 2005
Michelle, two years ago, passed through here around November 4 or 6, IKE
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306. IKE
12:57 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
I know it's til the end of November for the hurricane season. I should have said the end of October basically along the northern Gulf coast. True that the Bahamas can have a November storm.
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305. IKE
12:52 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
mybahamas...I see what you're talking about(on satellite), as far as where your weather is coming from.

Maybe a gentle conversation with your wife! She'll understand...I hope!

Found this interesting on the 8:05am EDST tropical discussion..."a slug of
moisture in the se Bahamas will likely keep S Florida very
unstable and fairly wet. The GFS forecasts another chunk of
moisture to enter the state on Tue... with some slight
possibility of tropical genesis hinted to in the model fields.
Model consensus is for a large low to form in the E Gulf by
mid-week ahead of a cold front and regardless of development..
keep the E Gulf very wet."...

That's what the NAM and the GFS are picking up on. Maybe Tammy? MY WIFE'S NAME! Oh my GOD!
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304. 147257
12:48 PM GMT op 02 Oktober, 2005
its till the end of november
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303. mybahamas
8:46 AM EDT on October 02, 2005
we are getting some of the moisture associated with it ... extends into even parts of southernmost FL. winds from the s-se matching the direction it is travelling in, too :)
my wife would knock me in the head with the bathrrom window shuttering if I told her that IKE ;-)
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302. IKE
12:38 PM GMT on October 02, 2005
How are you getting any effects from the bahamas? Pressure gradient? You sure it isn't from another system that might be developing?

Tell your wife to be patient!!! Hurricane season isn't over quite yet. Give it til the end of October!??!?!?
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301. mybahamas
8:24 AM EDT on October 02, 2005
Hiya from Nassau, The Bahamas :)
This morning, around 6:20, we had sustained winds over 20 mph with some good gusts from "Stan." It all woke my toddler up :(
Ironically, with the possible system coming this way by Tuesday, my wife is nagging me about the plywood shuttering I have up over our "safe" rooms and wants them down. Go figure ... :)
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300. IKE
11:20 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
It also looks like with this cold front coming down the end of this week...the hurricane season in the northern Gulf will be about over with.
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299. IKE
11:09 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Not sure olefosse. Latest satellite frame has a glitch in in it so I can't tell.

It appears something is going to get drawn NE-ward later this week that will be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I think it's what is east of Florida now and moving west because of strong high pressure to the north.
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298. olefosse
10:53 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
If we are to believe the latest satellite imagery, Stan is now moving north of its projected path, while dropping off a part of itself which wanders towards the Bay of Campeche. Will Stan consequently spend sinificantly shorter time over dry land than previously predicted, and shoot off N/NE? Input on this possible development would be highly appreciated.
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297. IKE
10:51 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Good morning cyberspace!!!!!

Seems like the latest GFS 06Z is latching on to what the NAM has been advertising...something crossing Florida...entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then getting drawn NE with the end of week approaching cold front. Could it be Tammy?
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296. DaAntiCyclone
7:35 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
buenas noches
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295. DaAntiCyclone
7:27 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Man that GFS has been out to lunch all week, showing cyclones forming all over the place except for where there are actually cyclones, ie. Stan, TD19.
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294. DaAntiCyclone
7:20 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Man that GFS has been out to lunch all week, showing cyclones forming all over the place except for there are actually cyclones, ie. Stan, TD19.
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293. DaAntiCyclone
6:59 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
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292. theboldman
11:49 PM PDT on October 01, 2005
what up yall
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291. 2xtreme4u
1:44 AM EST on October 02, 2005
Hey lefty
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290. leftyy420
6:42 AM GMT on October 02, 2005


Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
289. 2xtreme4u
1:42 AM EST on October 02, 2005
NHC upgraded TD 20 to Tropical Storm Stan
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288. WillJax
6:15 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Okay, I'm off to bed as well. See ya tomm.
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287. theboldman
11:15 PM PDT on October 01, 2005
are you shure its not you will put the pits down man lol
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286. WillJax
6:11 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Wow, I'm impressed with TD20's spiral banding. That's the most obvious his circulation has been since we first saw him enter the Caribbean.

I was just thinking, imagine how much moisture this system has brought into the Caribbean air. Most of the tropical Atlantic is also full of moist air. Another HUGE wave is about to leave Africa. I'll say it again: Things are getting ripe!
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285. leftyy420
6:08 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
good night guys
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
284. leftyy420
6:06 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
dunno hawke. they have flown thru the center twice already.still no vortex. i think they are trying to determine the exact location of the center as developing systems could have 2 or more votices and its hard to die down the dominant cenetr. but who knows
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
283. guygee
6:03 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Wife just asked, "You staying up all night again??" Thanks all! Will check back in tomorrow.
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282. Hawkeyewx
1:03 AM CDT on October 02, 2005
I thought the stupid recon plane was out there two hours ago. I wonder what is taking them so long to get a center fix. The NHC even had to send out the 2am EDT advisory with the estimates.
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281. GetReal
6:02 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
good night everyone
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280. leftyy420
6:00 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
yeah they kept her a td but they said is is close to ts strength. if she wasn;t soclose top landfall they wouldmake her a ts for sure.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...19.5 N... 87.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
279. leftyy420
5:54 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
taking the 2am advisory forever. they might be upgrading her
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
278. leftyy420
5:49 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
based on obs the winds are between 35-40 mph at the surface and i don;t know if they will upgrade her. but i think they might
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
277. leftyy420
5:47 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
yeah guy i doubt we will see a storm so strong specillay with land interaction but we could see a possible cat1-cat3 hit florida in my opinion
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
276. leftyy420
5:45 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
dunno, vortex might come out after the 2am adv. here is the latest ir image as of 100am

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
275. guygee
5:36 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Lefty - I see what you mean. The second link makes it clearer, you are right. WV loops show the ULL at 21N65W already is developing a good amount of convection around the center (pre-eclipse) so if the ULL currently off of the Georgia coast kicks out NE and TD20 heads west, some version of this scenario is feasible. (but I certainly hope not as strong as shown, another potential disaster!!). I will be paying much closer attention to the tropics for the next few days!
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274. GetReal
5:44 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Anything on new vortex message? I'm about to go to bed.
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273. WillJax
5:34 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
These models are throwing all sorts of scenarios at us, so it's hard to say what's going to happen. However, all of the models are screaming loud and clear that we're going to see some very nice conditions in the near future for TC development.

I think it's obvious that the GFS monster is a vape verde wave that will be in development for quite some time.

What I'm wondering is what that is coming down from the north on the last frame of the GFS? Looks to be another high like the ones that preceded it. If that were to happen when that storm is in that position, then it is definitely a landfall storm.
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272. GetReal
5:41 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
yeah that was a good pick up on your part. There have been numerous instances of ull becoming tropical in sept and oct.
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271. leftyy420
5:39 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
getreal, the models have it moving along west, therss going to be a trough that will turn it north and east. but like i said i am more looking at the fact that its the ull i noted yesterday
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
270. leftyy420
5:38 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
yeah buff. i ammore on the fact its fromthe ull, something i noted as a possibilty yesterday despite that guy complianing that dr.masters says it couldn;t happen lol. and than he said it was colder than other ull so it caould not become warm core lol. the things he said had me rolling on the floor
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
269. GetReal
5:32 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
I hate to bring this up leftyy, but the ull we're speaking of right now is moving along now at a pretty steady clip towards the west. I'm inclined to believe that the models maybe turning this system to the north much to quickly. It may possibly get further west before turning north and threatening Mobile to Apalachicola areas. I will be interested to see when and if this develops, and some later model runs.
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268. weatherbuff64
5:32 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
wow lefty ...that is some storm if it does develop and I am pretty much in its path
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267. leftyy420
5:25 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
guygee, thats not from td 20, thats the ull low . u have to look at other levels of the models to see where the enrgy comes from. here is what i use sometimes. now it will be easier to see what will happen in the next day or 2 but u can clearly see the storm is generated from the disturbance at 21n65w which was an ull yesterday but has started to transition into a warm core system today. the shear bis from a secon ull to its north that is suppose to be kicked away by the front that just passed and is stalled off the coast right now

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
266. guygee
5:24 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
OK, I can buy into that alternate intepreation, the ULL is gaining moisture and looks like it is getting a surface reflection, it is also pretty vigorous, so we will have to watch out for it crossing the peninsula and gaining convection near the center.
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265. tomfdpix
5:08 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
It is most certian some of use will be hurting this winter.
And as far as the gas ventures you should of bought your stocks long ago. The Gov controls it. And there are other ports to unload the gas. And we have reserves. But it is ashame some ppl will have to pick between eating and keeping warm.
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264. guygee
5:13 AM GMT on October 02, 2005
Lefty - New canadian seems to show surface ciruclation of TD20 rapidly heading across Yucatan into Mexico, then may be a piece of TD 20 (amybe upper high(?)left behind (?) getting up into the Eastern Gulf, stalling a bit north of Key West, then hugely bombing out up the East Coast. Is that bomb even a pure tropical system, or a hybrid? Pretty scary, but not totally implausible.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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