TD 5 may redevelop over Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2010

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five are still spinning over southwestern Georgia, and the storm is headed southwards towards the Gulf of Mexico, where redevelopment into a tropical depression could occur by Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense thunderstorms has developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity continues to intensify and expand in areal coverage. Most of the heavy rain is offshore, but I expect heavy rains will spread to the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. These heavy rains will likely spread to coastal regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana by Monday, as the center of ex-TD 5 approaches the coast and the storm begins to wind up again. By Tuesday, the GFS and HWRF models predict that the center will move off the coast, and TD 5 will be reborn again. The system may have enough time over water to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning over Southeast Louisiana. Wind shear is currently low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, over the next three days, favoring re-development of TD 5. NHC is giving a 20% chance that TD 5 will regenerate into a tropical depression by 8am EDT Tuesday. I think the odds are higher than this, perhaps 40%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models have been predicting a major pattern shift in the global atmosphere late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and the start of the Cape Verdes hurricane season. The models have been consistently predicting a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting possible development of a tropical depression near the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras late this week.

Smoke envelops Moscow again
The favorable northerly winds that had blown in cooler air and kept smoke away from Moscow slackened today, as high pressure built in. The return of the high pressure ridge that has brought European Russia its worst heat wave in history means several more days of light and variable winds that will keep wildfire smoke over or near Moscow. Very hot weather at least 10°C (18°F) above average will also be rule, and temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today. This is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 30°C for the next five days. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia late this week, bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 by early next week.


Figure 2. Image from Friday by NASA's Aqua satellite showing smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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North Florida/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia Weather Roundup
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TALLAHASSEE PTSUNNY 85 77 77 SE8 29.93F HX 95
PANAMA CITY NW CLOUDY 82 79 89 SW7 29.92F
EGLIN AFB LGT RAIN 84 77 79 SW6 29.93F
CRESTVIEW PTSUNNY 89 77 67 NW8 29.94F HX 101
APALACHICOLA LGT RAIN 79 77 94 NW9 29.95R FOG
PENSACOLA PTSUNNY 89 77 67 VRB5 29.93F HX 101
MARIANNA CLOUDY 82 77 84 W6 29.93F
PERRY N/A 89 77 67 SW13 29.93F HX 101
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


We have a Lot next Door on to our Home that is available if you need.

Were near Jeff And Mag.


Thanks Pat! That is very nice, and much appreciated! I will send you a message if I need to park by your house.
Thanks!
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634. xcool
12z ECMWF TD5 OVER NOLA Stronge 48HR
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Were almost caught up to where we were last year in terms of # of storms
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, I'm looking on that "nowcoast" site, I assume you are too.


Yup Miami, that's the one I'm using. Put the surface wind velocity over it and you can pinpoint the center pretty well.
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Gustav ,Uptown 2008

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Quoting nolauptowngirl:


Definitely, I will most certainly follow that advice. I live 3 blocks off the Mississippi levee, so I was considering parking up there (near Cooter Brown's). I certainly won't be making the mistake of parking on the street again (Freret)!


We have a Lot next Door to our Home that is available if you need.

Were near Jeff And Mag.
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Quoting Kristina40:
Pressures just took another drop. Showing a 1011, a couple 1012's and several 1013's now.
Yup, I'm looking on that "nowcoast" site, I assume you are too.
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TC track PGI29l

Link
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Quoting Patrap:


Pick a Good HIGH Neutral Ground and stake it out tonight.

Dat would a good Plan.




Definitely, I will most certainly follow that advice. I live 3 blocks off the Mississippi levee, so I was considering parking up there (near Cooter Brown's). I certainly won't be making the mistake of parking on the street again (Freret)!
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With this recent heat wave over Russia & the flooding in Pakistan, I more convienced that Climate Change is here!
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Quoting MississippiWx:



A departing trof and a building A/B ridge.
Heh, I just noticed that too. Made me go "hummmmmmm".
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Hi all, just checking back in....any new models out for XTD5? Any changes?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Maybe not too! What else do you notice?



A departing trof and a building A/B ridge.
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Quoting StormW:


Maybe not too! What else do you notice?
Cape Verde action beginning.
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Pressures just took another drop. Showing a 1011, a couple 1012's and several 1013's now.
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Quoting nolauptowngirl:


UGH! I got 5 inches of rain IN MY CAR from TD5 in uptown Thursday! This time I will be parking up on my sidewalk!
Thanks for all your updates Pat, I follow then closely!


Pick a Good HIGH Neutral Ground and stake it out tonight.

Dat would be a good Plan.


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Quoting StormW:


Maybe not too! What else do you notice?
What is that going into the BOC Storm?
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613. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Thanks storrm.Storm top i will bet you a poby and a bowl of gumbo at dennies that this at least makes a 50mph ts no ike i have not turned into brwn tx as a ultimate wishcaster lol


lol...you may be correct. I said a 1 in 3 chance of a TS. I doubt it happens, but it could.
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NAM was pretty good with its first run of the storm, I think i'll stick with it a bit more maybe.
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PGI30L popping some convection as the sun sets. Might emerge very late tonight/early tomorrow morning if it continues its current clip.

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Quoting StormW:


Thanks!
My folks live in Eclectic. Heavy rain?
It is heavy at times then it becomes just a good light rain.
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Quoting Patrap:
We watch the system in real time now.

The runs are cute and pick ones fav.

The guidance is simple..what is yet to be seen is intensity..and the size of the Rain Shield..which will be big if the systems expands..and is likely.




UGH! I got 5 inches of rain IN MY CAR from TD5 in uptown Thursday! This time I will be parking up on my sidewalk!
Thanks for all your updates Pat, I follow then closely!
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607. IKE
Quoting GetReal:
No Ike I believe it would be a right turn for a system moving south... LOL


If it goes right that would take it east. It has to turn some to the left to go SSW...or SW..or WSW.
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Thanks storrm.Storm top i will bet you a poby and a bowl of gumbo at dennies that this at least makes a 50mph ts no ike i have not turned into brwn tx as a ultimate wishcaster lol
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Quoting JRRP:
did you see the NOGAPS ?
Link
4 tropical cyclones. That model is just bad and funny.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it spends 66 hours over water like the HWRF suggests it will have plenty of time to become a significant cyclone. Let's see if it can take advantage of its surroundings.



HWRF was forecasting a cane for td5's first landfall,look what happened!!!!
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Good evening Storm.We are getting rain here in Semmes Ala. with some breeze with it.
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No Ike I believe it would be a right turn for a system moving south... LOL
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597. JRRP
did you see the NOGAPS ?
Link
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Karen's behind it.
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afternoon fellow wunderbloggers!!!,based on high res vis loop it appears XTD5 is heading SSE and may very well end up moving closer to the west coast of FL and could end up stregthening more than it would if it moved westerly quicker(being further away from the sheering ULL over the western gom currently),allthough I still believe in a eventual motion taking it towards LA's coastline,I wouldn't be suprised if it's offshore just nw of the tpa area by tomorrow afternoon,JMO.....
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ahh and Tropical Storm Beryl of '94.
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KOG according to that loop you ust posted, TD5 is getting close to sticking its' toe beck into the GOM near Laguana Beach, just west of PCB...
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We had a TS last year that spun up off the Tampa coast.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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