Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Jul 28, 2010
NOAA: Last decade was warmest, global warming 'undeniable'


As July continues to sizzle in much of the United States, a new U.S. report says the 2000-2009 decade was the Earth's warmest on record and "global warming is undeniable."

About 300 scientists from 48 countries contributed to the 2009 State of the Climate report released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

USA TODAY colleague Doyle Rice, who notes that global weather records go back to the 1880s, describes their report's findings:

Each of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before, it reports. At the time, the 1980 was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. And the 2000s were warmer still.

Specifically, the decade of the 2000s had a surface global temperature that was 0.96°F above the long-term (20th century) average. This shattered the 1990s value of 0.65°F above average, according to Thomas C. Patterson, chief scientist at the National Climatic Data Center....

The report focused on 10 indicators of a warming world, seven which are increasing and three declining. Rising over the decades are average air temperature, the ratio of water vapor to air, ocean heat content, sea-surface temperature, sea level, air temperature over the ocean and air temperature over land.

Indicators that are declining are snow cover, glaciers and sea ice.

"The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years may seem small, but it has already altered our planet," said Deke Arndt, co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of the data center.

"Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common," he says.

Last month was the warmest June on record and this year has had the warmest average temperature for January-June since record keeping began, NOAA reported last week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting jerr:
Is any one paying attention to the record setting cold in Argentina and Bolivia.

Any explanation - Don't think it global warming.

Earth axis shift and or orbit?
Hansen's new book has some interesting references on the subject


Deniers have their minds made up that the planet isn't warming and/or that man isn't causing it to happen quickly. This despite--and in willful ignorance of--the simple but overwhelming and well-founded scientific facts emphatically indicating the opposite. So I realize the following will likely be just as ignored, but here goes anyway in response to your statement that the record-setting cold in South America can't be caused by GW:

The more one learns about how the earth's climate works, the more one realizes the complex interplay between multiple factors: ocean currents, air currents. Here's a nice explanation from the scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute:

Confusion arises because a cooling can be a regional event, superimposed on top of continuously warming earth. Global warming is driven by the increased capture of solar energy due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane) in the atmosphere, caused mainly by human activities. The warming has global consequences. The energy gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is distributed around the globe and affects many systems - warming the atmosphere, warming the oceans, increasing evaporation in some regions and precipitation in others, and melting glaciers...Complications arise when you consider how heat and water are moved around the planet. Warming is causing more water to evaporate from the tropics, more rainfall in subpolar and polar regions, and more ice to melt at high latitudes. As a result, fresh water is being lost from the tropics and added to the ocean at higher latitudes. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the additional fresh water can change ocean circulation patterns, disrupting or redirecting currents that now carry warm water to the north. Redirecting or slowing this "Atlantic heat pump" would mean colder winters in the northeast U.S. and Western Europe. But the heat gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is still in the climate system, just elsewhere. The result: a warmer earth, a colder North Atlantic.

For the record, here's a statement from the American Geophysical Union, a nonprofit organization of geophysicist not:

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system--including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons--are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. It is scientifically inconceivable that - after changing forest into cities, putting dust and soot into the atmosphere, putting millions of acres of desert into irrigated agriculture, and putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - humans have not altered the natural course of the climate system."

But go ahead, Deniers; I would definitely believe Limbaugh, Beck, Palin and the CEO of ExxonMobil before I'd put faith in the words of thousands of, you know, scientists. After all, what do they know? A Masters in the atmospheric sciences means nothing! ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
27. VERY interesting, we're going to have to watch it closely.
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27. 1965
Regarding the coming EGOM system, here are New Orleans, and Houston AM forecast discussions:

MODELING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT WITH A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW THAT MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY THEN TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. SHOULD THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP AS CURRENT MODELING SUGGESTS...IT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. BENNETT

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK/DEPTH OF UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS
DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING A BETTER SFC REFLECTION WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE ERN GULF WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING BY TUE MORNING. FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS FOR THE TUE THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME WHICH
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN...WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE SRN LA COAST THU MORNING. BASED ON THIS TRACK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST BEGINNING WED WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT CHC POPS IN
THE FCST DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
NUMBERS INCREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. LIKEWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE/WED
EXPECTED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY. 87

&&


NAM DEVELOPS A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PUSHES IT OFF TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE LA AND UPPER TEXAS
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT IF
THIS FEATURE DOES IN FACT DEVELOP AS IT WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
POPS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAINLY DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE NORM AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S.
MB

MARINE...
WINDS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15KTS TONIGHT
AND SEAS ARE NOW PUSHING 3 FEET. NOT A BIG INCREASE BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO RELAX A LITTLE BIT DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.
EXPECT THIS NOCTURNAL INCREASE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS LOUISIANA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AND
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME MORE OF AN
IMPACT FOR THE UPPER TX COAST.
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Ascat shows cyclonic curvature trailing the "blob" ~14N ~34W


Click on image to view original size in a new window







Lower resolution
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting crosbyweatherfan:
Just tuned in this morning and noted discussion about activity in the GOMEX. I also saw someone say something about Tx/La. Can someone say a bit more? Is this related to the low off the cold front?
check out this model and click PLAY...Link
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Also Dr Masters didn't mentioned the wave SE of 93L.
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Quoting crosbyweatherfan:
Just tuned in this morning and noted discussion about activity in the GOMEX. I also saw someone say something about Tx/La. Can someone say a bit more? Is this related to the low off the cold front?
heard east gulf nothing about tx
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This is of significance as well.



Greenland Iceberg Four Times Bigger Than Manhattan Breaks Off Glacier

WASHINGTON — A giant ice island has broken off the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland.

A University of Delaware researcher says the floating ice sheet covers 100 square miles – more than four times the size of New York's Manhattan Island.
Link
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There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.

ECMWF and GFS all develop a system in the Gulf from the disturbance over Florida in 96 hours or so.
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Just tuned in this morning and noted discussion about activity in the GOMEX. I also saw someone say something about Tx/La. Can someone say a bit more? Is this related to the low off the cold front?
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93L:
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Quoting divdog:
ull's dry air , shear, whats happening with the setup for a train of storms like is being predicted. everything is weak and keeps dying. I am not convinced about the strength of the season.


I agree and have noticed this going on all season.
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Quoting divdog:
maybe he does not believe it going to happen. models have not been on top of their game so far this season
Very true.
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Thanks Dr Masters!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Masters says that no models are predicting storm formation over the next seven days. I just read Crown Weathers discussion and he said that all of the models are predicting a storm in the GOM this week. Can someone clarify this for me.
This model(GEM) has a tropical storm moving into the TX/LA border in 5 days or so....Link..... More LA than TX though...
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Quoting Abacosurf:


I am surprised he omitted this....Clearly all the models show at least a 1010 low forming west of Tampa.
maybe he does not believe it going to happen. models have not been on top of their game so far this season
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In visible imagery, 93L has a well defined naked swirl, similar to Colin's when he regenerated.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Masters says that no models are predicting storm formation over the next seven days. I just read Crown Weathers discussion and he said that all of the models are predicting a storm in the GOM this week. Can someone clairify this for me.


I am surprised he omitted this....Clearly all the models show at least a 1010 low forming west of Tampa.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
We finally got a day of rain here.. roflmao, and I am going golfing.. oh well



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Another link:

Link
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Thank you Dr. Masters!
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ull's dry air , shear, whats happening with the setup for a train of storms like is being predicted. everything is weak and keeps dying. I am not convinced about the strength of the season.
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Thanks Doc.

Be back in a bit, gotta lower my ears.
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Thanks Dr.Masters!
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WOW!!! Active morning over Florida and on both sides in the Gulf and Atlantic.

Link
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gonna be a slow day on the blog
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Thank you, Dr. Masters. Excellent as usual...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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