Invest 96L: Not Looking So Good

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2010

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he is on vacation.

Invest 96L is currently over the Yucatan peninsula and is not looking as impressive as it did over the holiday weekend. Right now, the cloud tops are warming, which indicate that the thunderstorms are weakening. This is likely due to 96L's being ashore right now. Looking into the future, 96L's doesn't show much promise of becoming a significant tropical cyclone. Nearly all of the model guidance has 96L moving in a northwesterly direction along the cool waters churned up in Alex's wake. It looks like 96L will miss the warm SST's at 25N, 87W. It's also expected to move from low shear to higher shear over the the Gulf of Mexico. The ocean offshort of the coastal bend of Texas (Corpus Christi to west of Houston) may allow 96L to intensify if it gets there. There is a small band of warm SST's at the continental shelf, and the wind shear is low (<10 knots).

Looking at the dynamical model output, the story is still murky. Looking at the broad picture, a broad area of 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coastline somewhere between Corpus Christi and southeast Louisiana. NAM favors SE Louisiana, while GEM and the parallel GFS favor the coast east of Corpus Christi. HWRF and NOGAPS have the wind affecting the coast west of Houston, while the operational GFS has the wind coming ashore east of Houston. NOGAPS and HWRF are also the only models that show surface winds that are tropical storm force.

I think that that the upper-level circulation and the surface circulation are not strongly coupled together in teh model simulations. This would explain the the discrepancies between the wind swaths I'm describing and the hurricane forecast aids. Those aids use an automatic process to identify the vortex center in the model data that may favor upper-level features for tracking instead of surface features.

To sum it all up, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.


Fig. 1 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z GFS. Parallel GFS wind swath.


Fig. 2 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z NOGAPS. Canadian Global wind swath.


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 18Z NAM.

Next Update
Tweaks later tonight as necessary, possibly a late night entry describing the Northeast heat wave. Tropical update will be posted Wednesday afternoon.

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:)
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blog screwed up lol
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So...when are we gonna get a REAL storm then?
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sorry removed the post because of the repetition
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Hmmm...
Has anybody let Atmoaggie know we are here yet?
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What a woosy storm. Sheesh.
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Not a big shocker there. It's been a disorganized mess from the get go and it only has about 72 hours until it hits land. Next...
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 958
What's the matter with you two?
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....
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Quoting Patrap:
WAmp..wahhhhhhhhh
hey patrap- where is 96l going? what is that blow up in the gulf? and how is your day going?:)
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 062355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 626 Comments: 22810
thanks doc carver i like these sneaky updates
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63930
Blog delay initialized at 11:44 GMT
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ok figgered it out ...

3167 comments and 45 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 1 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 568 comments in all blogs.

Handle: WatchingThisOne
Status: Your No-Ads Membership Expired!
Expiration: 2006-07-16 07:31:53
Signed Up: 2005-07-15 07:28:20

Hey, fifth anniversary coming right up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the blog most be overe loaded today or some in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
dont look at me lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
great update thanks
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I haven't been on WU too much today but it looks like 96L held together well considering it has been over the Yucatan all day. Unlike over the weekend, I see one COC which is now starting to come into the GOM. Yea, not as much going for it as Alex but I see this thing at least becoming a Tropical Storm prior to landfall.
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40. IKE
Merida, MX (Airport).....at 21.0N and 89.7W
Updated: 25 min 26 sec ago
Overcast
81 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SW
Pressure: 29.74 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1000 ft
Overcast 2500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 33 ft
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Echo..?
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We lost da entry..
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Where is everyone???
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Great update, thanks
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Comparisons between the same ordinal dates in 2005 and 2010
5July2005

5July2010

5July2005

5July2010

5July2005

5July2010
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I bet the guy about to click 'post' on the TWO is thinking 'Them boys at WU are going to be..''post'
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Dr. Rob Carve kill the blog lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
great... more rain!!!
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We seem to be stuck at 7:43 p.m.
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2010 has taken away the June minimum sea-ice extent record from 2006 and...

...appears to be poised to take the 2nd lowest summer minimum sea-ice extent from 2008.
It's possible that 2010 will take the minimum sea-ice extent record from 2007, but sea ice melt is currently slowing due to the prevalence of multi-year sea-ice in what remains.
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Good to know, thanks
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Can this post be viewed? For some reason I can't see any new posts.
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I'll repeat this question on new blog entry, I think important with 96L. What is the forecast for the dry air in western gulf? Like in 24-36 hours? Looks very unfavorable at this hour.
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is Dr. Rob Carve being a downcaster lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
Thanks Dr Carver!

Howdy Pat and Amy :))
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Quoting Patrap:
WAmp..wahhhhhhhhh


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There's a monsoon in the GOM.
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I'm sure I want to tell anyone there's a new blog up. LOL
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Thank you for the update Dr. Carver.
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Good news Dr. Carver... Thanks for the update.
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Alexandra Steele just said Bonnie might have existed for a few hours yesterday

That I believe makes her a pastcaster
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I'm not sure I want to tell there's a new blog. LOL
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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