93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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I see daycare has been let out for today. Geez.

Drak, looks like the low level swirl might have moved east slightly in the last few frames of visible, trying to tuck itself under the convection to the east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This LLC on this system appears to be in a slight eastward drift towards some of that deeper convection. This could get very interesting, especially as we head into Dmax. If the current trends persist, then I would expect the NHC to up their odds to 50% or possibly higher at 8pm.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Have you been following GOES? Convection is very very close to the center.
It's exploding...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Being one of the skeptics over LLC's location, I can finally say i see it. It's near the Honduran coast and moving slowly. I have a few questions... if the thing moves over land and dissipates, what are the chances that the mid-level circulation near Jamaica will travel to the surface and act as the second LLC? If so, how does that change model tracks? Finally, should folks in south florida worry about the system?
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1441. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The dominant circulation has definitely reached the lower levels.

Its far removed from the convection though.

Thats not going to do it much good.


Have you been following GOES? Convection is very very close to the center.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1440. Patrap
I just Lub sultry tropical talk..

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Ike,

Do you think that there will be a TD in June and if there is not, will it still be a busy season? Thanks for the info!!
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Quoting MrstormX:
RUC model predicts an evident cyclonic feature impacting the Yucatan in +48 hours aka 93L with a pressure near 1000mb.


RUC? Never heard of this model...Is it New?
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Quoting extreme236:


I don't believe a sentence containing just, "Whatever." is a proper sentence. A proper sentence should contain a subject and verb, but there are a few exceptions.


well lets all get out our strunk and whites. are you gonna make us skip our creamcicle at recess?
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Time to lurk, blog being funny right now.
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1435. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:
Man what happened to her. Who made her mad?


She doesn't like grammar errors from bloggers.
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Quoting gator23:

lol but what if someone is not from an English speaking nation. This blog is mulitnational.


she never said anything about grammatical errors, geez

you guys give trolls 100 chances yet you ban her right away lol

pretty funny actually
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
First *POOF* since STROMTOP


Relax...
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Quoting FFtrombi:
Convection increasing to the west and east of the LLC, pressure dropping to 1007,2 (counting diurnal variation ~1008) and the LLC slowing down due to the wave to it's east lowering pressures to the east as well as friction over land tightening the circulation, steering currents are weak as well.

Next 24hours will see a TD develop in that general area and move WNW slightly north of honduras heading for the yucatan peninsula.

visible satellite image
Excellent forecast.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
First *POOF* since STROMTOP
LMAO!! Because someone else told me. You don't have much in the way of patience I see.
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The dominant circulation has definitely reached the lower levels.

Its far removed from the convection though.

Thats not going to do it much good unless that changes tonight.
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Convection increasing to the west and east of the LLC, pressure dropping to 1007,2 (counting diurnal variation ~1008) and the LLC slowing down due to the wave to it's east lowering pressures to the east as well as friction over land tightening the circulation, steering currents are weak as well.

Next 24hours will see a TD develop in that general area and move WNW slightly north of honduras heading for the yucatan peninsula.

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


No. I closed low is not enough... It need to organize convection which it seems to be in the process of doing or at least gaining convection.


you mean "A closed low" I assume.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You experience storms with higher tops living in Miami during the summer almost every day. These are crappy Caribbean storms. Many don't even have lightning.
Um... You don't want lightning with tropical cyclones. Either way -80C cloud tops developing in less than 2 hours with a tropical disturbance is pretty cool.
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i dont see any circulation south of haiti???
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok... I was told several times.
First *POOF* since STROMTOP
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1420. OneDay
Now 93l has had enough time meandering. I suspect we'll have a depression in the next 12 hours or so. The TCHP is highest where 93l is now and conditions remain favorable. I think the new convection blowing up on top of the NHC's "center" of 93l is the beginning of the real deal.
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Quoting Fl30258713:


Is that like ocd, OCD or O.C.D?

Or should Obsessive Compulsive Disorder be spelled out? I can't remember.


Lmao, Very funny OCDs
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RUC model predicts an evident cyclonic feature impacting the Yucatan in +48 hours aka 93L with a pressure near 1000mb.

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HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

...CELIA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 114.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

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The proper term would be "high tops".
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Latest from Bastardi

The system in the western Caribbean has its low-level center west of the mid-level center. This is not from shearing, but simply because it's the way the pattern is evolving. This should be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Saturday night or Sunday.

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1414. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Maybe a special TWO comming?


No. I closed low is not enough... It need to organize convection which it seems to be in the process of doing or at least gaining convection.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting StadiumEffect:
A circulation center can draw in moisture/thunderstorms...but I don't think it works the other way around.
Yeah it can work the other way. A lot of convection creates tremendous lift at the surface (low pressure) and a low level circulation can be affected by lots of lift in the mid levels. I'm thinking the approaching convection to the east is causing the llc to stall or maybe move back to the east slightly.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Whatever. Out of all the crappy ass people that have been on this blog... I've been around since 2004 and have held my own. I've been fairly descent to everyone. You pay attention to trolls and give them the attention they want, but I can't make a comment like I did. Screw you guys.


What did i miss?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Maybe a special TWO comming?


No.

I believe tomorrow and only tomorrow is 93L's only chance. No sooner, no later.
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1410. IKE
Quoting smmcdavid:
Whatever. Out of all the crappy ass people that have been on this blog... I've been around since 2004 and have held my own. I've been fairly descent to everyone. You pay attention to trolls and give them the attention they want, but I can't make a comment like I did. Screw you guys.



*Considers offering her a valium*
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Quoting btwntx08:
anticyclone right over it
Link


Now 93L may become something to watch!
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Those are NOT hot towers...
Hot towers reach into the stratosphere... that convection isn't about 30k feet.
Ok... I was told several times.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Surface observations indicate that 93L has a closed low level circulation.


Maybe a special TWO comming?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like 93L is on its way to TD status soon looks like tomorrow afternoon at the rate its going if it stays offshore


93L is far from TD status.

The LLC is far west of the convection. Thats going to have to change before 93L reaches the Yucatan.
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Wow you guys are funny as hell

she was exactly right, we pay so much attention beating around trolls and yet you decide to ignore her right away?

she did it to prove a point and her point was proven lol
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Just a quick note: if you can't use or attempt to use proper capitalization and punctuation (those are periods, commas, question marks, etc) in your posts... I'm going to add you to my ignore list.

These things exist for a reason. :)

"Just sayin'"...


Is that like ocd, OCD or O.C.D?

Or should Obsessive Compulsive Disorder be spelled out? I can't remember.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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