93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:

looks alright but that hook at the end seems too much to the right should be more nw track

Yeah I thought about moving it, but I left it there to compensate for the GFDL taking it to the NE of the consensus.
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So am I the only one seeing a closed center at roughly 82W and 16N? It elongated east-west, but i'm pretty sure its closed. Just look at the low level clouds.
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I'm with you KeyWestwx... no bad press for Florida period. Slow season would be very nice!
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Quoting LongBeachNY:


Agreed, they are not going red until there is sustained convection for at least 12 hours near the LLC


the TCFA would not have been issued if there had not been that
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 10806
.
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Quoting reedzone:


Right on the dot! I'm more likely expecting 50%, however I am not ruling out a slim chance of 60%, especially if this continues to organize.


Agreed, they are not going red until there is sustained convection for at least 12 hours near the LLC
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

But look at the date it's valid for. Till 11z on the 25.


a new one was issued this morning though, so yes it is old
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 10806
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
No one says S. FLA is in the clear. No one along the GOMEX coast is cleared at this time. Even if S FLA does not get hit by a tropical system... there is still the oil out there to contend with, which could affect S FLA in many adverse ways.

hey, no bad press for South Florida please!- We have had enough. BTW The Florida Keys have never been cleaner (except for Duval St at 4AM) so ya' all get your butts out her to enjoy the Keys beauty
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1694. Patrap
EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2010062418
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144516
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Not necessarily.. the TCFA was issued before the 2PM TWO, and everyone expected it to go red, yet it remained at 40%.
But at 2PM the satellite presentation wasn't as good as it is now, as well 1007mb buoy observations have been shown near the LLC.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21689
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yes it is old, it was issued yesterday

But look at the date it's valid for. Till 11z on the 25.
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1691. JamesSA
The Lat/Lon lines are all messed up on the Flash version of the NOAA site 93L floater. The Java one is OK.

I was trying to make sense of StormPetrol's coordinates, and they had it on land! LOL!
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 584
Quoting MississippiWx:
93L means business. Check out how much moisture and convection the circulation is pulling into it. Mighty impressive how much it has accomplished in just a short while. Needs to continue tonight and this time, I think it will.

Link
I think you may just be right about that. Usually around this time of the day, 93l looks at its worst... but it's actually firing convection near the center.
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Quoting JamesSA:
That's right on the coast of Honduras / Nicaragua. It isn't going to develop into much over land.


Be careful. You might get POOFED for pointing that out.

It looks like the center is going to be moving very close to the coast. It may be a short term hiccup, but it is interesting that it waited until now to try to get its act together.
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Quoting wfyweather:


Theres a TCFA?
Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21689
HEY GUYS AFTER LOOKING AT VIS SAT I SEE THAT 93l "LLC" IS ABOUT 16.1N 81.8W AND IF YOU LOOK CLOSELY ON THE LAST FEW FRAMES YOU CAN SEE THAT IT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD A FEW FRAMES WITH "LLC" CENTER PLOTS ARE AS FOLLOWS

16.1N 81.6W
16.1N 81.9W
16.1N 82.0W
16.1N 81.9/8W

ANYWAY I EXPECT A NEW LLC TO FROM AROUND

15.9N 80.5W
OR
16.3N 79.8W
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Quoting btwntx08:

poof goodbye and good rendience


Really? Why? This just adds to the craziness today. Oh yeah....They didn't agree with what you think. Got it!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think the TCFA will take it to red.


Not necessarily.. the TCFA was issued before the 2PM TWO, and everyone expected it to go red, yet it remained at 40%.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
93L means business. Check out how much moisture and convection the circulation is pulling into it. Mighty impressive how much it has accomplished in just a short while. Needs to continue tonight and this time, I think it will.

Link
I agree completely. We could have a TD within 48 hours if it can consolidate one LLC and improve on satellite.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21689
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No model support for that scenario. Highly unlikely.
Models do not generally perform well with disturbances like this...especially ones that aren't very well organized. I wouldn't rely to heavily on them right now if I were you.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think the TCFA will take it to red.


Theres a TCFA?
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Bridgeport ct got hit with a pretty good storm for these parts. It went over here on its way but nothing like Bridgeport.

http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Building-collapses-as-storm-rips-through-region-535832.php


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I dont think they should have cancelled the 25 06Z flight.
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I say about a 60% chance of it being a 50% chance at 8pm... and a 10% chance of it being a 60% chance... LOL! Hope that helps!
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93L means business. Check out how much moisture and convection the circulation is pulling into it. Mighty impressive how much it has accomplished in just a short while. Needs to continue tonight and this time, I think it will.

Link
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Quoting reedzone:


Right on the dot! I'm more likely expecting 50%, however I am not ruling out a slim chance of 60%, especially if this continues to organize.
I think the TCFA will take it to red.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21689
1674. Patrap
12Z CMC 96hrs

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144516
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It is not old look at the date it's issued for. Also look at the date of the flight.


yes it is old, it was issued yesterday
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 10806
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No this one is

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Hmm NHC needs to do a better job at updating their site lol.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


No this one is

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Basically shows the same thing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21689
Quoting btwntx08:

old look at date

It is not old look at the date it's valid for. Also look at the date of the flight.
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Latest obs indicate a N wind at Puerto Lempira, Honduras and a W wind at Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. I think that may be enough to close it off, perhaps???
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Quoting wfyweather:
it will most likely NOT be code red at 8. but probably 50 percent


Right on the dot! I'm more likely expecting 50%, however I am not ruling out a slim chance of 60%, especially if this continues to organize.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Regardless it's the newest one.


No this one is

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 10806
Quoting btwntx08:

old look at date
Regardless it's the newest one.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21689
1664. tkeith
Quoting Floodman:


Wrong end bro...
lol...yep
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New 93L graphics update:

Track based on 18Z model consensus.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Tropical disturbances do not have hot towers. Hurricanes have hot-towers in their eye-walls...



Yeah, hot towers are an unusual occurrence found within well developed hurricanes on which thunderstorms have been observed breaking the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere... Once it was thought that it was impossible for convection to push through this boundary, for many obvious reasons. Under normal conditions, it still is impossible.

However, hurricanes seem to break this rule on occasion however, due to an absurd amount of latent heat energy that's released in a burst.


Hot Towers therefore are certainly not something that can just happen any time or any where with deep convective bursts. They cannot occur with tropical disturbance, at last not yet.
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Quoting tkeith:
Quoting 93L:
Hey guys, I thought I'd pop in here and say hello.


straight from the horses...err, ummm, mouth...


Wrong end bro...
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Quoting JamesSA:
That's right on the coast of Honduras / Nicaragua. It isn't going to develop into much over land.


coastline is actually at 83.5W and 15N

so it is still NE of it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 10806
I'm willing to bet 93L gets the spin it needs overnight.
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it will most likely NOT be code red at 8. but probably 50 percent
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1655. JamesSA
Quoting stormpetrol:
16N/81.5W red at 8pm?
That's right on the coast of Honduras / Nicaragua. It isn't going to develop into much over land.

Edit: I think the Lat/Lon lines are wrong on the floater.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 584
If organization continues, I expect chances to be bumped to 50%, possibly 60% which would make it just at Code Red. It has really organized well in structure and convection this late afternoon/evening. The convection south of Haiti is now looking more like banding features, this would mean things are merging into one. The vorticity shows that to.
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1653. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144516

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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